You should check out the podcast with Osterholm. He's getting a ton of email from people stating that they aren't going to get the vaccine. This is his concern though. He has stated that it would be a stretch to get even 50% of the population vaccinated, which would fall seriuosly short of herd immunity.
Emails are anecdotal data and the polling I've seen spits out wildly different results based on how the question is asked. We also do not know where the herd immunity threshold is for this virus.
He then goes on to say that middle/low countries won't have access to this vaccine for several years. 2022-23 is the time frame when we could possibly get enough vaccine for the world.
I'd probably agree with this. The US/EU however will have substantial access to several likely viable vaccines in 2021.
The thing I'm concerned about is we are putting way too much into getting this vaccine, which will probably take some time to come out.
There is going to be a ramp and it will be slow at first due to dose supply limitations. We already know this and expert opinion generally reflects Q2-ish before wide availability to the public. That is likely however after maybe 80-100M people who are in priority groups get it.
It's going to be awhle, so we must prepare for a brutal fall/winter where we will probably see many Americans get sick and die. It's going to get much worse before it get better is what i'm saying.
The way we've handled it yes this is essentially certain.
Also, he briefly talked about possible reinfections that are cropping up in countries like India.
We've got a handful of reinfections out of 7M cases. Not unexpected or particularly alarming.
Finally, we should be in this for the long haul, and many Americans don't want to face the facts. This is very evident by the number of vaccine post in this thread. It's not going to be a cure all, and we need to understand this. Dr. Osterholm talked about this as well. Again, this virus is going to be with us for a very long time.
It will be endemic in the US for a few years probably, but declining each one. The world longer since vaccination efforts are difficult a lot of places.