NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[destrekor]

I'm just not that excited about Remdesivir. I don't think it changes or solves anything regarding this virus and speeding up the return to normal for society as whole. I need a cure or some type of prevention.

Well that's quite the tall ask. That's an end result for an exceptionally tiny fraction of viruses, and given the nature and family of viruses involved, I'm expecting nothing save for post-infection treatment.

 

[local]

It's generally accepted that Influenza death toll is roughly 0.01% death rate.

With what we have seen thus far with COVD-19 it's looking to be around 0.05% death rate.

So... essentially... 5x worse than the yearly flu. Yet were going to have to tack on hundreds of thousands of more lives that are going to die from economic despair because people get butt-hurt, irrational, and stupid over a virus outbreak. YAY!

It honestly didn't have to be this way... we didn't have to be THIS stupid. Call for social distancing... call for using more hand sanitizer, washing hands more, etc...call for old and vulnerable people staying home more.... But closing stores, restaurants, and other useful businesses because... reasons has made zero sense.

Add in some unknown number of people permanently damaged by the virus as well but yes it is not the black plague. However, how many deaths would your company accept internally before closing their doors or moving to the current model at least temporarily? I would bet it isn't a terribly large amount, especially once someone made the argument that the company knew it was possible and thus was negligent in their deaths so the lawsuits start flying.

If you are worried about economic despair now wait until you see what I expect is next. Once companies are allowed to reopen the special unemployment assistance stops as you could always go back to work, except they don't need you as they do not have enough customers to remain open. Now we will have far fewer companies eligible for help and I imagine there will be many more companies outright failing but since they are open for business what is the problem? I see this getting much worse before it gets better.

 

[linkgoron]

It's generally accepted that Influenza death toll is roughly 0.01% death rate.

With what we have seen thus far with COVD-19 it's looking to be around 0.05% death rate.

So... essentially... 5x worse than the yearly flu. Yet were going to have to tack on hundreds of thousands of more lives that are going to die from economic despair because people get butt-hurt, irrational, and stupid over a virus outbreak. YAY!

It honestly didn't have to be this way... we didn't have to be THIS stupid. Call for social distancing... call for using more hand sanitizer, washing hands more, etc...call for old and vulnerable people staying home more.... But closing stores, restaurants, and other useful businesses because... reasons has made zero sense.

Source of those numbers? I've seen most put the cfr above 1%. Hospitalization rate is also much higher from what I've seen (I've seen numbers around ten times that of the flu), and that people might survive but stay with life-long chronic issues, or even just spend weeks sick, and even more weeks recuperating.

Even if the 0.05 death rate is correct, your argument is wrong because that 0.05% death rate means nothing if you don't specify how contagious a disease is. If it is twice as contagious, you'll get ten times the number of deaths, not five.

Death rate is not the only issue. If the hospitalization rate is really 10 times higher, you'll also get 20 times the number of people in hospitals vs the flu, and that might overwhelm your hospitals.

Either way, It's just too early to really state what the death rate is.

 

[destrekor]

It's generally accepted that Influenza death toll is roughly 0.01% death rate.

With what we have seen thus far with COVD-19 it's looking to be around 0.05% death rate.

So... essentially... 5x worse than the yearly flu. Yet were going to have to tack on hundreds of thousands of more lives that are going to die from economic despair because people get butt-hurt, irrational, and stupid over a virus outbreak. YAY!

It honestly didn't have to be this way... we didn't have to be THIS stupid. Call for social distancing... call for using more hand sanitizer, washing hands more, etc...call for old and vulnerable people staying home more.... But closing stores, restaurants, and other useful businesses because... reasons has made zero sense.

After all the hullabaloo about whether masks should (or legally can) be made mandatory, and after witnessing the number of people who don't give a shit about anyone else but themselves, you honestly expect your suggestion of minimal effort would have curtailed an overwhelming surge?

What we're seeing now is exactly what many of us expected a month or more back: once we got through the first wave and for the most part managed to keep it from completely overwhelming the country, then some would look around and go "see, the world didn't end, this was all unnecessary!" and still others would look at the models predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths and complain that we made things worse for nothing because obviously it didn't come through and decimate the population.

 

[local]

After all the hullabaloo about whether masks should (or legally can) be made mandatory, and after witnessing the number of people who don't give a shit about anyone else but themselves, you honestly expect your suggestion of minimal effort would have curtailed an overwhelming surge?

What we're seeing now is exactly what many of us expected a month or more back: once we got through the first wave and for the most part managed to keep it from completely overwhelming the country, then some would look around and go "see, the world didn't end, this was all unnecessary!" and still others would look at the models predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths and complain that we made things worse for nothing because obviously it didn't come through and decimate the population.

Pretty sure those are the same people that couldn't wrap their head around exponential growth back in early March. Now that 2 million people didn't die and the dead are not being piled in the streets they are saying it was all fake.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

After all the hullabaloo about whether masks should (or legally can) be made mandatory, and after witnessing the number of people who don't give a shit about anyone else but themselves, you honestly expect your suggestion of minimal effort would have curtailed an overwhelming surge?

What we're seeing now is exactly what many of us expected a month or more back: once we got through the first wave and for the most part managed to keep it from completely overwhelming the country, then some would look around and go "see, the world didn't end, this was all unnecessary!" and still others would look at the models predicting hundreds of thousands of deaths and complain that we made things worse for nothing because obviously it didn't come through and decimate the population.

You honestly call social distancing (staying far away from one another, not shaking hands, etc.), using hand sanitizer after touching anything outside your home, and washing your hands often to be "minimal effort"? Those are precisely what I said that we should have enacted - but that still doesn't mean that young people don't have an obvious advantage. That still doesn't mean that all restaurants should be closed. That still doesn't mean retail should grind to a halt.

If you honestly think that the stupid masks have made any difference whatsoever I've got a bridge to sell you. I guarantee you it hasn't and will not.tt

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Add in some unknown number of people permanently damaged by the virus as well but yes it is not the black plague. However, how many deaths would your company accept internally before closing their doors or moving to the current model at least temporarily? I would bet it isn't a terribly large amount, especially once someone made the argument that the company knew it was possible and thus was negligent in their deaths so the lawsuits start flying.

If you are worried about economic despair now wait until you see what I expect is next. Once companies are allowed to reopen the special unemployment assistance stops as you could always go back to work, except they don't need you as they do not have enough customers to remain open. Now we will have far fewer companies eligible for help and I imagine there will be many more companies outright failing but since they are open for business what is the problem? I see this getting much worse before it gets better.

Yes - but at the end of the day it is done so not through rational thought process -but rather the complete opposite.... Irrational idiocracy.

Folks would be perfectly content with massive unemployment, starvation, drug abuse, and car wreck deaths as long as they aren't listed under COVID-19 as the cause of death.

Is that smart? Is that rational? Is that minimizing the impact? Absolutely not. It's the exact opposite.

 

[local]

Yes - but at the end of the day it is done so not through rational thought process -but rather the complete opposite.... Irrational idiocracy.

Folks would be perfectly content with massive unemployment, starvation, drug abuse, and car wreck deaths as long as they aren't listed under COVID-19 as the cause of death.

Is that smart? Is that rational? Is that minimizing the impact? Absolutely not. It's the exact opposite.

You are absolutely correct, to a point. If car crashes were killing people to the extent where they had to start mass burials and just coming into contact with someone that had a car crash caused you to more than likely do so as well the reaction would probably be a bit different.

If you honestly think that the stupid masks have made any difference whatsoever I've got a bridge to sell you. I guarantee you it hasn't and will not.tt

I don't believe contact spread is a significant vector at all. Every documented spreader event I have seen so far is air transmission and from what I can see I believe it is the primary vector of transmission, especially once improved hand hygiene is put into effect. If these masks reduce that possibility of spread by even 10% then they are more than worth the irrational aggravation it is causing some people.

 

[K1052]

I don't believe contact spread is a significant vector at all. Every documented spreader event I have seen so far is air transmission and from what I can see I believe it is the primary vector of transmission, especially once improved hand hygiene is put into effect. If these masks reduce that possibility of spread by even 10% then they are more than worth the irrational aggravation it is causing some people.

Yeah the evidence for long lived surface transmission isn't really there right now. Some high touch surfaces (door handles, elevator buttons, railings, etc) that many people are touching constantly or might cough on possibly though. Yes they're finding genetic material from the virus days after the fact but not apparently viable virus that can actually infect someone.

Wash hands religiously, don't touch your face, stay separated a few feet from others, and wear a mask. These aren't really big asks.

 

[manly]

I mean, just based on my Internet armchair quarterbacking & what I've read on the Internet...the idea that this was an accidental lab leak seems pretty dang likely. Because the alternative is...there's a virus lab right down the street from the wet market...that was cited for safety problems...and multiple scientists are suggesting that it was a tailored virus due to the genome sequence...but it just happened to come from the wet market randomly. And I wouldn't imagine that China would (1) release this on their own population to spread to the rest of the world & risk economic collapse, especially without (2) a vaccine in place to make & sell ahead of time.

I could be way off base, but it sounds like (1) this was lab-designed, and (2) accidentally leaked (or maybe intentionally, by a disgruntled or extremist employee). We will probably never know the exact truth, but based on the symptoms, spread, and globalization of this virus, it seems like this is a legitimately viable option to consider.

A leading biomedical research institution published a paper just last month:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

Not saying that this is settled fact (it may never be). However, that Dr. Rath Health Foundation Web site appears kind of dodgy:
https://www.dr-rath-foundation.org/2020-03-lets-stop-the-virus-lets-end-the-hysteria/

Sounds like he's been saying for decades that Vitamin C and other vitamins prevent and cure serious diseases?

 

[K1052]

Hologic with a meaningful expansion of testing bandwidth:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1255602871065772032

Companies are already talking about securing their own testing capacity either in house or through contracts so they can test their employe base. Deep pocketed finance and tech are probably at the head of the line so far but I'd expect lots more to also do this eventually. Nobody in biz wants to shut down again so it's going to be test test test all the time this summer.

 

[manly]

Source of those numbers? I've seen most put the cfr above 1%. Hospitalization rate is also much higher from what I've seen (I've seen numbers around ten times that of the flu), and that people might survive but stay with life-long chronic issues, or even just spend weeks sick, and even more weeks recuperating.

Even if the 0.05 death rate is correct, your argument is wrong because that 0.05% death rate means nothing if you don't specify how contagious a disease is. If it is twice as contagious, you'll get ten times the number of deaths, not five.

Death rate is not the only issue. If the hospitalization rate is really 10 times higher, you'll also get 20 times the number of people in hospitals vs the flu, and that might overwhelm your hospitals.

Either way, It's just too early to really state what the death rate is.

He's off by a factor of 10, but that's pretty consistent with his track record throughout this thread. The current COVID-19 CFR is fairly high when compared to seasonal flu; but as we all know, the true CFR if we had a better handle on the total infection count is much lower. 0.5% to 1% would not be surprising but that's still still way more deadly than seasonal flu. The thing to remember is that without a vaccine (and treatment), it's a pretty dumb idea to let SARS-CoV-2 spread throughout society unchecked and let it runs its course. If you're super lucky, you end up like Sweden. If not, you're in the same boat as Lombardy, Madrid, or NYC.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

He's off by a factor of 10, but that's pretty consistent with his track record throughout this thread. The current COVID-19 CFR is fairly high when compared to seasonal flu; but as we all know, the true CFR if we had a better handle on the total infection count is much lower. 0.5% to 1% would not be surprising but that's still still way more deadly than seasonal flu. The thing to remember is that without a vaccine, it's a pretty dumb idea to let SARS-CoV-2 spread throughout society unchecked and let it runs its course. If you're super lucky, you end up like Sweden. If not, you're in the same boat as Lombardy, Madrid, or NYC.

Off by a factor of 10?

Again, see this Maddox video that shows multiple sources.

0.05% mortality is very much within reason according to multiple sources

Also 5x the rate of season flu is not "still still way more deadly than season flu".... it's roughly 5x as much. That's not "way more"

Myself nor anyone is suggesting to let it "spread throughout society unchecked" either as I mentioned MANY times to maintain social distancing and have folks with high risk stay away.


EDIT: Ultimately - I don't care. My job is very much secured. I work from home regardless of a Pandemic occurring or not. But if you guys want to keep killing off the lower and middle class go right ahead.

 

[manly]

Off by a factor of 10?

Again, see this Maddox video that shows multiple sources.

0.05% mortality is very much within reason according to multiple sources

Also 5x the rate of season flu is not "still still way more deadly than season flu".... it's roughly 5x as much. That's not "way more"

Myself nor anyone is suggesting to let it "spread throughout society unchecked" either as I mentioned MANY times to maintain social distancing and have folks with high risk stay away.


EDIT: Ultimately - I don't care. My job is very much secured. I work from home regardless of a Pandemic occurring or not. But if you guys want to keep killing off the lower and middle class go right ahead.

Math is hard, I guess.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/04/coronavirus-flu-comparison/

CFR for seasonal flu is widely reported as 0.1%, i.e. 1 in 1000.
For COVID-19, let's say for the sake of argument that it's 5 to 10 times as deadly as seasonal flu. For most people, 5x to 10x is quite significant. About the only point you may have regarding CFR (which you aren't making) is that we're lucky COVID-19 isn't nearly as deadly as MERS, Ebola or SARS. But unfortunately, the novel coronavirus is way more infectious than those way deadlier diseases.

Look at all the "excess" deaths statistics that are currently being reported for COVID-19 hotspots. Although not all excess deaths are due to COVID-19, there is no doubt a huge spike in deaths in the past 8 weeks.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Math is hard, I guess.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/04/coronavirus-flu-comparison/

CFR for seasonal flu is widely reported as 0.1%, i.e. 1 in 1000.
For COVID-19, let's say for the sake of argument that it's 5 to 10 times as deadly as seasonal flu. For most people, 5x to 10x is quite significant. About the only point you may have regarding CFR (which you aren't making) is that we're lucky COVID-19 isn't nearly as deadly as MERS, Ebola or SARS. But unfortunately, the novel coronavirus is way more infectious than those way deadlier diseases.

Look at all the "excess" deaths statistics that are currently being reported for COVID-19 hotspots. Although not all excess deaths are due to COVID-19, there is no doubt a huge spike in deaths in the past 8 weeks.

Yes - Math is INCREDIBLY hard for folks that can't equate actual test counts to probable amounts of actual infection. I know, I know, probability is complex, yo!

But again, just dismiss my post and their citations and post yours that have... oh wait... no citations... Just your standard media with no real factual basis, just random numbers.

For instance, I can quote the number of older folks that have died from COVID-19 - and then cite the number that have been legally tested for the virus and then make an accusation... But then that would illogical and an entirely elementary school level way of thinking. Thus, I wouldn't do that. However, you will clearly cite some WaPo article where it does that VERY thing.

Thus there is little to no hope for trying to convince you of the very thing that you clearly will decline.

 

[BudAshes]

Off by a factor of 10?

Again, see this Maddox video that shows multiple sources.

0.05% mortality is very much within reason according to multiple sources

Also 5x the rate of season flu is not "still still way more deadly than season flu".... it's roughly 5x as much. That's not "way more"

Myself nor anyone is suggesting to let it "spread throughout society unchecked" either as I mentioned MANY times to maintain social distancing and have folks with high risk stay away.


EDIT: Ultimately - I don't care. My job is very much secured. I work from home regardless of a Pandemic occurring or not. But if you guys want to keep killing off the lower and middle class go right ahead.

Are we sure that guy isn't a moron? I didn't watch the video but he looks a bit like a real life Homer Simpson.

 

[manly]

Are we sure that guy isn't a moron? I didn't watch the video but he looks a bit like a real life Homer Simpson.

Someone's demented mind is clearly off by a factor of 10, but still claims he's correct and everyone else's numbers must be fake news lol. At this point, he's about as much of an authority on COVID-19 as Homer Simpson is.

EDIT: I just watched the Maddox video and it's pretty good. Maddox claims that true CFR for COVID-19 could be somewhere around 0.5% (or slightly more).

NYT charted CDC data on deaths in a handful of COVID-19 hotspots:

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.

www.nytimes.com

Obviously not all "excess" deaths are due to COVID-19, but draw your own conclusions.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Someone's demented mind is clearly off by a factor of 10, but still claims he's correct and everyone else's numbers must be fake news lol. At this point, he's about as much of an authority on COVID-19 as Homer Simpson is.

NYT charted CDC data on deaths in a handful of COVID-19 hotspots:

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests (Published 2020)

In seven hard-hit states, total deaths are nearly 50 percent higher than normal, according to new C.D.C. statistics, suggesting that the virus has killed far more people than the number in official counts.

www.nytimes.com

Obviously not all "excess" deaths are due to COVID-19, but draw your own conclusions.

And... as I stated MULTIPLE TIMES the outbreak of COVID-19 is FAR higher than the number of actual tests completed. This has been proven multiple times.

So equating the death toll as higher - without squatting the far higher number of cases is 5 steps past stupidity and dipping into idiocracy.

 

[manly]

And... as I stated MULTIPLE TIMES the outbreak of COVID-19 is FAR higher than the number of actual tests completed. This has been proven multiple times.

So equating the death toll as higher - without squatting the far higher number of cases is 5 steps past stupidity and dipping into idiocracy.

It's generally accepted that Influenza death toll is roughly 0.01% death rate.

With what we have seen thus far with COVD-19 it's looking to be around 0.05% death rate.

You're off by a factor of 10 (rewatch your Maddox video), and yet keep repeating yourself over and over. Since you're math challenged, I can't really expect reading comprehension to be your strong point either. I'll quote myself from earlier for the record (emphasis added):

The current COVID-19 CFR is fairly high when compared to seasonal flu; but as we all know, the true CFR if we had a better handle on the total infection count is much lower. 0.5% to 1% would not be surprising...

In other words, the apparent CFR in the U.S. and western Europe looks abysmal because there are way more infections than positive tests. Once you plausibly correct for this, many experts have COVID-19 CFR as somewhere in the ballpark of 5 to 10 times as deadly as seasonal flu. So you keep stating what's obvious to most people, but that doesn't prove your point or correct your basic error.

The bottom line is that we have a fundamentally different opinion of what it means if COVID-19 is five times as deadly as seasonal flu, when combined with there being no vaccine or treatments yet for the new disease.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/elon-musk-slams-coronavirus-shelter-in-place-orders-as-fascist.html

. I love Elon. Maybe Tesla Q1 conference call was not the best place to express his opinion but that what makes Elon entertaining.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

You're off by a factor of 10 (rewatch your Maddox video), and yet keep repeating yourself over and over. Since you're math challenged, I can't really expect reading comprehension to be your strong point either. I'll quote myself from earlier for the record (emphasis added):

Oh darn! You're right! Damn me!

God forbid you do a simple web search to realize that when I said the fatality rate of the flu was 0.01% that you instead realize that it was 0.1%.

But hey - it's pretty hilarious that you cite my number but try to dismiss my argument at the same time.

 

[brianmanahan]

this thread is now 6 times longer than AISTBATSMF

holy crap

 

[shortylickens]

I was bored with the normal shit and started watching LA 92.
Finished it as well.
Forgot how fucked up LA was after the Rodney King cop trial. Also makes me wonder how long an epidemic can go on before we start seeing crazy shit in major cities.

 

[Ichinisan]

Old article from March 3:
https://qz.com/1811018/chinese-citizens-use-github-to-save-coronavirus-memories/

Chinese citizens are racing against censors to preserve coronavirus memories on GitHub

They're uploading personal narratives and news reports about the outbreak to the site, amid fears that content critical of the Chinese government will be scrubbed.

qz.com

https://github.com/2019ncovmemory/nCovMemory

https://github.com/jiayiliujiayi/2020nCov_individual_archives

China is now arresting their citizens for participating in projects such as this and Terminus 2049.

 

[Svnla]

no this is someone thinking they are above others and don't have to follow the rules

Does this apply to EVERYONE and to ALL rules and laws? In other words, no one in the US can pick and choose which rule or law to follow and which one to ignore.

Asking for a friend.