Kaido
Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Kinda does seem like every 4 years, something comes up before an election...
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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD
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Kinda does seem like every 4 years, something comes up before an election...
Kaido
Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
I certainly hope there was no foul play, but I also wouldn't put it past a government to fund bio-weapons research that would create something like this.
Also brb sounds like Airborne kills COVID lol
Kaido
Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
The amount of denial in Sweden is staggering:
www.cnn.com
They didn't do a mandatory lockdown. All of the neighboring countries have total death counts of less than 500, whereas Sweden has nearly 5 times that amount: (note that Denmark, Norway, and Finland all have a population of about 5 million, whereas Sweden has abotu 10 million, but even at double, that would be 1,000 people, not nearly 2,500 lost to COVID-19)
But, this is where I have to take off my knee-jerk reaction hat of "lock down everything!" because there is some merit to this approach:
1. We can't effectively keep the economy locked down forever because of money, food, supplies, etc.
2. Particularly because the virus is primarily targeting the elderly, which means we may be able to quarantine the high-risk population at home & not everyone
3. Which means a phased approach may not be a horrible idea
4. Especially because experts say we're in this for the long haul (2020 is the ballpark right now)
5. And also because the experts say we're in for a second wave, which means maybe do a phased rollout back to work for a season & then go back to stay-at-home procedures during a second bad season
I feel like our response should be monolithic (there's a "but" coming in a minute). It worked for New Zealand...they became COVID-free this week & 400k people went back to work:
www.pbs.org
Their population is roughly 5 million people; they had about 1,500 confirmed cases & 19 deaths total:
www.bbc.com
Contrast that with NYC, which has a population of over 8 million, but has 300,000 confirmed cases and 18,000 deaths. Gross warning, they just found almost 60 bodies piled into trucks at a funeral home. The reason it got reported was because fluids were dripping from the trucks, and one truck was refrigerated. So again, to compare: the entire country of New Zealand had 19 deaths total, whereas this one single funeral home in NYC has triple the amount of bodies sitting outside because they have no other place to store them:
www.cnn.com
But...we also have to be realistic, which almost always means breaking things down into chunks & examining ways to do good or to do better instead of just doing "the best". I don't know what the right answer is & I sure am glad I'm not a politician having to make these kind of live-or-die situations. One of the most difficult things in calling the shots on this pandemic is that we simply don't know when it will end. If we knew, for sure, that it would go away by say August, then sure - lock it all down. But going into 2022, by some estimations, I mean...how is that sustainable?
I think the next few months are going to be where we have to forge a new path forward & define what life looks like in the near-term with this virus, let alone the long-term impacts across the globe. We'll get through this, like we always do, the question right now is simply when will things get back to normal? As normal as they can be post-virus & with such an economic impact, that is.
Sweden: Coronavirus deaths soar in the country that didn't lock down | CNN
Unlike its European neighbors, Swedish officials did not institute lock down measures to combat the Covid-19 epidemic. CNN's Phil Black takes a look at how that has affected the country's outbreak.
They didn't do a mandatory lockdown. All of the neighboring countries have total death counts of less than 500, whereas Sweden has nearly 5 times that amount: (note that Denmark, Norway, and Finland all have a population of about 5 million, whereas Sweden has abotu 10 million, but even at double, that would be 1,000 people, not nearly 2,500 lost to COVID-19)
But, this is where I have to take off my knee-jerk reaction hat of "lock down everything!" because there is some merit to this approach:
1. We can't effectively keep the economy locked down forever because of money, food, supplies, etc.
2. Particularly because the virus is primarily targeting the elderly, which means we may be able to quarantine the high-risk population at home & not everyone
3. Which means a phased approach may not be a horrible idea
4. Especially because experts say we're in this for the long haul (2020 is the ballpark right now)
5. And also because the experts say we're in for a second wave, which means maybe do a phased rollout back to work for a season & then go back to stay-at-home procedures during a second bad season
I feel like our response should be monolithic (there's a "but" coming in a minute). It worked for New Zealand...they became COVID-free this week & 400k people went back to work:
Why have Australia and New Zealand been so successful at managing COVID-19?
New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, announced this week that the country has eliminated the novel coronavirus, but warned that residents must stay vigilant. Neighboring Australia has also experienced relatively high success in battling COVID-19. Nick Schifrin reports on how the Pacific...
www.pbs.org
Their population is roughly 5 million people; they had about 1,500 confirmed cases & 19 deaths total:
Coronavirus: New Zealand claims no community cases as lockdown eases - BBC News
The country has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.
www.bbc.com
Contrast that with NYC, which has a population of over 8 million, but has 300,000 confirmed cases and 18,000 deaths. Gross warning, they just found almost 60 bodies piled into trucks at a funeral home. The reason it got reported was because fluids were dripping from the trucks, and one truck was refrigerated. So again, to compare: the entire country of New Zealand had 19 deaths total, whereas this one single funeral home in NYC has triple the amount of bodies sitting outside because they have no other place to store them:
Officials removing bodies from 'overwhelmed' Brooklyn funeral home | CNN
Officials were back at a Brooklyn funeral home Thursday, removing bodies that weren't properly cared for inside the home, a law enforcement official tells CNN.
But...we also have to be realistic, which almost always means breaking things down into chunks & examining ways to do good or to do better instead of just doing "the best". I don't know what the right answer is & I sure am glad I'm not a politician having to make these kind of live-or-die situations. One of the most difficult things in calling the shots on this pandemic is that we simply don't know when it will end. If we knew, for sure, that it would go away by say August, then sure - lock it all down. But going into 2022, by some estimations, I mean...how is that sustainable?
I think the next few months are going to be where we have to forge a new path forward & define what life looks like in the near-term with this virus, let alone the long-term impacts across the globe. We'll get through this, like we always do, the question right now is simply when will things get back to normal? As normal as they can be post-virus & with such an economic impact, that is.
Kaido
Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Man I love Elon but he really goes out to left field sometimes. I think he needs to chill on his twitter commentary of this stuff, it's kind of adding up lol
Ah man...I couldn't imagine being stuck in this without good Internet:
Why rural Americans are having a hard time working from home | CNN
The pandemic is forcing many people to do their jobs or complete schoolwork remotely, putting a burden on rural Americans without reliable internet.
Yeah it sucks
BUT, and it's a big BUT, New Zealand has their 5 million people in an area of about 103,500 sq miles and NYC has their 8 million people in an area of about 300 sq mi.
Makes a BIG difference in how and how far and how fast disease spreads no matter what precautions are taken.
Brainonska511
Lifer
Density plays a role, but it isn't the determining factor. Hong Kong and some of the affected parts of South Korea are as dense or denser than NYC, and they didn't have the same issues as NY. The biggest factors in play seems to be the steps taken early. Early lock downs coupled with good contact tracing appears to be an effective strategy at containment.
brianmanahan
Lifer
everyone on this thread is going to have a PhD by the time this whole thing is over
Kaido
Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Excellent point, and I think that's why I'm more open to a staged re-opening as more data like this has come out. This virus primarily affects the elderly & is very obviously driven by proximity, especially in places with uncontrolled responses. A response can't be entirely monolithic to get things moving again. Even New Zealand, which has a huge success story, is doing things in stages. The key is finding the right balance. No one wants people to die, but no one wants the long-term effects of a societal collapse, either.
I sure am glad I'm not the one in charge of the nation-wide response on this. All of the cards in the hand we've been dealt are garbage!
Brainonska511
Lifer
Don't downplay the strong role incompetence has played in the failure of the US national response. Garbage cards dealt, but we were holding a dumpster fire hand to start.
s0me0nesmind1
Lifer
That's why you have to be like China and just put on a good pokerface
K1052
Elite Member
I'm not sure why some people are representing there is a "lockdown forever" desire. Nobody thinks that. The lockdown is to get things under control so you can deploy test-trace-isolate programs and keep the outbreak under control for the long haul while reopening most of the economy with certain ongoing interventions.
The spectacular failure of the government to get the testing regime ramped up in a reasonable time has made things much more difficult. I think by June we'll probably be in the ballpark but we should have been there months earlier.
The spectacular failure of the government to get the testing regime ramped up in a reasonable time has made things much more difficult. I think by June we'll probably be in the ballpark but we should have been there months earlier.
Kaido
Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
If you look at say New Zealand's response vs. America's response, it's not hard to see a difference. And just to add fuel to the fire, we have people out protesting even those guidelines:
The anger is unbelievable:
It doesn't help when you have citizens who don't want to participate either. We just crossed 60,000 Americans dead in less than 2 months:
This picture reminds me of the Tank Guy, the protester from Tiananmen Square:
Can't reason with unreasonable people.
nakedfrog
No Lifer
To foment outrage, maybe?
Meanwhile in Nebraska, our number of cases is on the climb even as our governor opens things back up...
K1052
Elite Member
A distinct possibility.
Some states are certainly loosening restrictions while not meeting the criteria to do so. I don't think this is a great idea however it will afford the more cautious states a real life laboratory of where the problems will be when they proceed.
There are emerging hotspots in a lot of areas that are planning on opening up tomorrow. You also have places that haven’t even peaked yet opening back up tomorrow as well. It is a disaster waiting to happen.
Germany which has done a far better job than us it’s already seeing an uptick in infections since their easing of restrictions.
K1052
Elite Member
An interesting development. One of the big mysteries is the level of immunity that people have after recovery and this can start to answer those questions. Also there are a variety of practical uses some of immediate impact like if you can survey plasma donations for antibody quality.
The Capt. Trips story, appears to indeed be an attempt by the Trump admin, to find a way out of the hole that keeps getting deeper by the day. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/...out-coronavirus-man-made-origin-theory-226269
ponyo
Lifer
New Zealand locked the entire country down and blocked all foreign air traffic and ships. They banned any foreigner from entering New Zealand. Not even 14 day quarantine. Just outright ban of foreigners. And when you're so spread out on a large island like New Zealand, it makes sense they would stop the spread of the virus with their extreme lockdown measures if you do it early enough. I think they also banned all restaurants, even takeout. I don't think any country did that except New Zealand.
Today's feel good story that shows what will happen if we commit ourselves to green energy https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...dicted-to-fall-nearly-8-largest-decrease-ever
njdevilsfan87
Platinum Member
I'm hoping New Zealand opens up sometime later this year. I might have my family hop hemispheres for our winter season depending on how things are progressing in the US.
local
Golden Member
In regard to Sweden, yes they are trying a different approach. Yes that means right now more people will die. If they get overwhelmed then even more people will die. If they keep it at a fairly high burn without becoming overwhelmed and it turns out immunity is at least somewhat common then they will hit the point where they are business as usual while places like New Zealand are still hiding in the corner waiting for a vaccine before opening up to the rest of the world.
There should be an upside to lots of people getting the virus and that is faster herd immunity and more natural restrictions to spread, like basically any other disease that would be terrifying if it was a novel virus. However that does not mean open everything up and don't worry about protecting yourself or others. It means we need to open things up a bit, like non-spring break style beach going should be perfectly fine, and keeping things we have to have running like the food production and delivery industries. We are not going to be able to make this go away, it will not be completely gone even with a vaccine. We need to keep the exposure rate below the people dying in the streets level but not kill ourselves through paralysis either. Testing, both active and antibody, and contact tracing are imperative to widespread reopening with personal responsibility to limit the spread.
There should be an upside to lots of people getting the virus and that is faster herd immunity and more natural restrictions to spread, like basically any other disease that would be terrifying if it was a novel virus. However that does not mean open everything up and don't worry about protecting yourself or others. It means we need to open things up a bit, like non-spring break style beach going should be perfectly fine, and keeping things we have to have running like the food production and delivery industries. We are not going to be able to make this go away, it will not be completely gone even with a vaccine. We need to keep the exposure rate below the people dying in the streets level but not kill ourselves through paralysis either. Testing, both active and antibody, and contact tracing are imperative to widespread reopening with personal responsibility to limit the spread.
IronWing
No Lifer
Off topic: Was there ever an episode of Star Trek where the security dudes actually did their jobs?
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