NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[sdifox]

I could have replaced "largest" with "most populous", but I believe I am still correct once you start counting China's territories and colonies like Taiwan, Australia, Canada, assorted countries in Africa, etc.

 

[Muse]

That's nice. Your preparation didn't prevent 59 million US citizens from getting the swine flu in 2009.

According to the stats 265,000 were hospitalized and 12,000 died in 2009 from swine flu in the US. Based on what we've seen so far it looks like this outbreak could kill and hospitalize at 20+ times the rate of swine flu. Good luck if tens of millions of Americans get infected with this virus.

Holy moly, Batman, I think I'm gonna trip on holing up in my house. Is this reasonable?

 

[TheVrolok]

That's nice. Your preparation didn't prevent 59 million US citizens from getting the swine flu in 2009.

According to the stats 265,000 were hospitalized and 12,000 died in 2009 from swine flu in the US. Based on what we've seen so far it looks like this outbreak could kill and hospitalize at 20+ times the rate of swine flu. Good luck if tens of millions of Americans get infected with this virus.


It is a fact the world's largest country and an economic powerhouse was brought to its knees in less than a month. We are not dealing with sensationalism here.

Preparation is highly unlikely to prevent all infection, why would that be the bar chosen?

Applying statistics broadly as you're doingis a significant folly.

I'm guessing you have limited experience/knowledge of the Healthcare industry.

Please objectively define "being brought to its knees." Stop using such bombastic/sensational language if you want to engage in a serious discussion.

 

[TheVrolok]

Not to politicize, but which party would you prefer in the White House come 2021 if we're fighting this pandemic? Myself, the Democrats.

I would prefer the Democratic party in power, full stop, unrelated to Covid-19.

 

[eRacer]

Preparation is highly unlikely to prevent all infection, why would that be the bar chosen?

To point out how arbitrary and poorly chosen your ebola example was.

Applying statistics broadly as you're doingis a significant folly.

Applying the example of ebola to this coronavirus is a significant folly.

I'm guessing you have limited experience/knowledge of the Healthcare industry.

Based on what I'm seeing here some in the healthcare industry aren't as clever and insightful and they think they are.

Please objectively define "being brought to its knees." Stop using such bombastic/sensational language if you want to engage in a serious discussion.

Oh, I don't know, maybe because...

-Quarantining/lockdown/travel restrictions on 750+ million people
-China willingly sacrificing tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars in economic output to prevent the spread of this disease
-Almost total elimination of free speech in regards to the outbreak and the measures being taken to control it
-Very restricted travel allowed to and from China by other countries
-Forced nationwide cancellation of schools, movie theaters, public events, etc.

 

[pmv]

I was in Milan over the weekend!

[wipes screen with anti-bacterial gel.]

 

[Muse]

I would prefer the Democratic party in power, full stop, unrelated to Covid-19.

Oh, totally. My rumination here was just to suggest that a Covid-19 pandemic in the USA may help bring the citizenry to their senses. Do they trust the orange nightmare to pick administrators who can be trusted to keep us safe? Anyone who doesn't have their head in the sand would have to say no way. That may be a silver lining on what otherwise appears to be a complete nightmare.

 

[TheVrolok]

To point out how arbitrary and poorly chosen your ebola example was.


Applying the example of ebola to this coronavirus is a significant folly.


Based on what I'm seeing here some in the healthcare industry aren't as clever and insightful and they think they are.


Oh, I don't know, maybe because...

-Quarantining/lockdown/travel restrictions on 750+ million people
-China willingly sacrificing tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars in economic output to prevent the spread of this disease
-Almost total elimination of free speech in regards to the outbreak and the measures being taken to control it
-Very restricted travel allowed to and from China by other countries
-Forced nationwide cancellation of schools, movie theaters, public events, etc.

... lol, not worth it. I suppose time will answer for us.

 

[eRacer]

... lol, not worth it. I suppose time will answer for us.

Hopefully I won't be proven right.

 

[eRacer]

Oh, totally. My rumination here was just to suggest that a Covid-19 pandemic in the USA may help bring the citizenry to their senses. Do they trust the orange nightmare to pick administrators who can be trusted to keep us safe? Anyone who doesn't have their head in the sand would have to say no way. That may be a silver lining on what otherwise appears to be a complete nightmare.

Yes, who wouldn't want pro-globalization, pro-open borders, pro-illegal alien Democrats instead of a border securing, travel banning, China skeptic, America first germophobe during this pandemic?

White House expected to ask Congress for coronavirus money this week

 

[TheVrolok]

Hopefully I won't be proven right.

Nor I wrong. I'll certainly agree with you there.

 

[Dari]

Yeah man, it's terrible I am hoping for the best, but I'm still waiting on a manner in which to view this with reasonable, logically founded positivity.

The numbers described from Iran so far have been 'drastically' higher than the reported 2% mortality of the Chinese reports. Also strange is that a number of deaths there have been recorded as people who fell ill in a very brief period and became critical and then unresponsive within a day or two.

Is this a new mutation? A particularly unfortunate co-infection present in Iran right now such as another flu or virus that could create a massively more deadly mix of things for the body to repel? No way of knowing for sure. Sadly, the extremely short-incubation-type infections are much easier to contain for obvious reasons, as it becomes far easier to classify and quarantine people or regions before widespread travel and spread is unknowingly allowed to contaminate larger zones.

But the truth is that these victims are far more likely to be cases similar to earlier accounts of individuals who were infected, fought a slow and long not super severe but in totality an exhausting battle that has a strange quiet spot towards the end, 13-17ish days in, only to have it sweep back in like a wildfire and cause a series of organ failures and septic shock, followed by complete cardiovascular failure. It only appears fast if you mistake the first part as the flu, or it otherwise isn't accounted for in the media account. So it would be my strong guess that someone early on, perhaps 3-4 weeks back came to Iran from Wuhan region as an asymptomatic carrier, and now we're on a second wave of carriers already. From a couple of days ago reports of less than ten, to now an enormous number of infected and cities being on the way to on lockdown.

Idk. It's definitely not fun to watch this spiraling towards ever larger scales of disaster. Anyone who can follow simple math and logic can see it's well beyond containment, is still on the rise, and is an almost perfect creation for spreading and infecting on a truly horrific scale.

Do you have a source for what you're describing here? If not, you should take up writing fiction (seriously).

 

[WelshBloke]

 

[pmv]

Do you have a source for what you're describing here? If not, you should take up writing fiction (seriously).

Dunno about all the speculative stuff in that post, but I do find it striking how vastly different the fatality rates are for, say, Singapore vs Iran. Perhaps it just happens that in Iran, through random chance, those afflicted were older or something, or perhaps it really shows the huge effect of different healthcare capabilities? I suppose a third possibility is Iran has far more infections than reported, and hence the death rate per infected person is not as out-of-line with elsewhere as it appears.

(Singapore 89 cases, no deaths, Iran 43 cases and 8 deaths)

 

[Arkaign]

Do you have a source for what you're describing here? If not, you should take up writing fiction (seriously).

Worse than one source, many sources. China has been drip feeding the bad news (aerosolized spread, asymptomatic carriers, etc), and other discoveries later like the water/waste-borne re-aerisolization effects which make sewer and water systems devastating to people in proximity, as was discovered on the failed cruise ship quarantine.

Do a Twitter search for Iran. The government there had kept it under the rug due to the elections, but it was spreading and overwhelming their medical services quickly, which is a disastrous mix with officials in denial. Now it's burning through northern Italy, which has at least acted more swiftly by putting the area on lockdown, closing institutions and cancelling group exposure risks like football matches.

In Italy, in just a few days, confirmed cases went from a couple, to 50+, to 100+ in successive 24 hour periods. Because the COVID infection is observed as beginning asymptomatically, these people weren't identified until they came down with more severe symptoms. Thus, they're to be taken as a warning. Each new case potentially reflects 5, 10, or even hundreds of additional infections depending on their activities and range of movement, or if they have secondary illnesses which may cause more aggressive spread (eg; someone suffering from a cold, allergies, etc and coughing/sneezing in public or around friends and family).

I believe the governments are handling this with very mixed messages, but overall trying to minimize the worry due to panic causing economic distress, or in cases like Iran with a strongly antagonistic relationship with the population at large, minimizing and denying facts as they're afraid of popular revolutionaries overthrowing the current cadre.

It does indeed depend on where you look. China, the Koreas, Japan, Iran, Italy, these are in various stages of disarray and deteriorating attempts at containment. However, Thailand is holding out pretty well at the moment. Hopefully that is a good sign.

 

[TheVrolok]

Dunno about all the speculative stuff in that post, but I do find it striking how vastly different the fatality rates are for, say, Singapore vs Iran. Perhaps it just happens that in Iran, through random chance, those afflicted were older or something, or perhaps it really shows the huge effect of different healthcare capabilities? I suppose a third possibility is Iran has far more infections than reported, and hence the death rate per infected person is not as out-of-line with elsewhere as it appears.

(Singapore 89 cases, no deaths, Iran 43 cases and 8 deaths)

This is part of my point from earlier, we have no idea what the qualify of this data is and conclusions from poor quality data are poor quality. For example, take a simple argument that the incubation period is long and asymptomatic, we may be drastically underestimating infections at any point in time so we may have a much smaller denominator than the reality which will significantly overestimate morality at a point in time.

Also, in many cases we're dealing with fairly small numbers which makes % mortality much higher. What if a bunch of asymptomatic folks go off and end up having a mild course of the disease that causes them not to present for objective diagnosis? Then we're missing a number of cases of resolved infections that could dramatically change the data. Comorbidites in the cases of mortality?

Obviously epidemiologists around the world are trying as hard as they can to get accurate data and account for various biases and confounders in the math, but it's really really hard. As I said, numbers don't mean much without looking really closely under the hood.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Do a Twitter search for

I ain't no friggin' Twit.

Maybe this virus thing will kill off all Twits?

 

[eRacer]

I suppose a third possibility is Iran has far more infections than reported, and hence the death rate per infected person is not as out-of-line with elsewhere as it appears.

One coronavirus case in Canada supposedly originated from Iran...in late January. It appears that it was allowed to spread for at least a month, and no one in government wanted to break the bad news to the public before elections. It wouldn't be surprising if 1000+ are infected in Iran right now.

 

[local]

Worse than one source, many sources. China has been drip feeding the bad news (aerosolized spread, asymptomatic carriers, etc), and other discoveries later like the water/waste-borne re-aerisolization effects which make sewer and water systems devastating to people in proximity, as was discovered on the failed cruise ship quarantine.

If you have seen something different go ahead and share it but I thought the entirety of the cruise ship fiasco was due to basically zero effective infectious control measures being used and more or less helping to spread it p2p per the Japanese Dr that got onboard. There is no need to invent new abilities or exaggerate existing features if a existing perfectly simple explanation exists.

China info is China info, I trust it about as much as I trust them to not poison me. I am waiting for accurate info to come out of SK and Italy, does it align more with Singapore or Iran? Right now Iran data is obviously skewed and I trust it far less than I trust the data from China.

 

[pmv]

One coronavirus case in Canada supposedly originated from Iran...in late January. It appears that it was allowed to spread for at least a month, and no one in government wanted to break the bad news to the public before elections. It wouldn't be surprising if 1000+ are infected in Iran right now.

Yeah, from what one knows of the Iranian government, I don't think it's mad conspiracy-theorising to suspect there are a lot more cases there than have been reported (symptomatic or not). I guess it's not impossible that deaths could be under-reported also, but that seems to require a higher threshold of conspiracy.

 

[Ichinisan]

Russia has a SARS-CoV-2 problem?

Not "worlds largest country," but "most populous"

I think China is something like 20% of the population for the entire planet.

 

[wty]

Not "worlds largest country," but "most populous"

I think China is something like 20% of the population for the entire planet.

that's correct.Almost.

 

[eRacer]

The ~20,000 Wuhan patients that supposedly recovered and were discharged from the hospital are getting a bonus quarantine:

Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again

• Recovered and discharged people were sent to designated centres from Saturday onwards
• Decision follows several instances in which recovered patients were found to be still carrying the virus and able to infect others

From Saturday, all patients who had recovered and been discharged had to be sent to designated places for two weeks of quarantine and medical observation, the city’s coronavirus treatment and control command centre said on Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter.

The new quarantine arrangements came after Chinese medical experts on the front line of the battle to contain the outbreak warned that recovered patients may still carry the virus and be contagious.

CNN ran a similar story: Healthy Wuhan residents say they were forced into mass coronavirus quarantine, risking infection

 

[Roger Wilco]

In the last 24 hours:

- 377 new confirmed cases outside of China—an increase of 20.54%. This is the highest number in a single day.

- 7 new deaths outside of China—an increase of 35.00%. This is the highest number in a single day.

- South Korea, Italy, and Iran continue to experience extreme outbreaks.
- Japan continues linear growth.
- Singapore, Hong Kong, the UAE, and Taiwan are all experiencing slow growth.
- The plague cruise continues its doomed course.

 

[Denly]

It looks like SEA/Aussie/NA/EU(except Italy) are relatively stable unlikely Jap/SK, e

Not "worlds largest country," but "most populous"

I think China is something like 20% of the population for the entire planet.

And India host another 20% of the population while only have 3 cases, don't get me wrong it is great news but I find it hard to believe.