NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[Arkaign]

Good gravy. I decided to call up a Persian friend of mine to see if he still had family back in Iran. Sure enough, I got some contacts to follow on Twitter, and WOW. That country is on the brink. Somehow a large cross section of higher leadership has come down with COVID-19, along with deaths and infections of hospital leadership and staff as well as police and military. Protests have started up, and are growing in scale, stores are out of basic supplies, Iraq has closed its border to all crossings, and people are travelling overland into Afghanistan to flee some of the more dire regions.

At this rate, food and fuel supplies are at risk, and the situation could completely go beyond management if order isn't established. It seems tenuous, hospital employees being asked to work in close proximity to virus carriers have not been paid in some time, and protective supplies and tests are basically non-existent. Turkey and Lebanon have both been contaminated by travelers from Iran from the past week and are now in isolation.

Wild times. And not the good kind.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Confused. I don't know how "always consider the source" could possibly be something we disagree on.

So... you're saying people should unquestioningly accept mainstream sources?

I am saying 99.9% of people who claim to check the source, do not check the source.

 

[Ichinisan]

Because this

Coronavirus: US says Russia behind disinformation campaign

Thousands of fake social media accounts promote conspiracies and seize on international health concerns, say US officials

www.theguardian.com

While you may have a tuber you like we don’t know how they vet their information.

How would Russia benefit from paying thousands of people to spread disinformation about the virus? That's pretty far out there.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

How would Russia benefit from paying thousands of people to spread disinformation about the virus? That's pretty far out there.

Easy it causes conflict & chaos

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Yawn. Still bored by Covid 19.

It doesn't sing and dance so it's not exciting. But IF the fatality rate is 5% then we're looking at a potential reduction in population as greater than the whole of the US.

 

[CZroe]

I am saying 99.9% of people who claim to check the source, do not check the source.

That's not what "consider the source" means. It isn't about checking your source's sources. It means that you need to consider whether or not your source is credible or has ulterior motives without assuming it's credible/true. You can read it and consider it or even share it without blindly believing it.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

That's not what "consider the source" means. It isn't about checking your source's sources. It means that you need to consider whether or not your source is credible or has ulterior motives without assuming it's credible/true. You can read it and consider it or even share it without blindly believing it.

Very few are qualified and determined enough to do that.
As you know from work many people just make crappy decisions

 

[Ichinisan]

Easy it causes conflict & chaos

The misinformation would spread right back to Russia and harm Russia as much as any other country.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

If these new reports are accurate, I am guessing it is beyond containment now. I've already started stocking up on non-perishables, rice, beans, etc. I'm also assuming the power will not go out so I'm filling the freezer with lots of fruits, veggies, and meat. Assuming nothing happens we will get through all of this food anyway at some point so no money will be lost. I just don't want to be caught off guard if/when I wake up one morning to a major headline like, "X new cases confirmed in Los Angeles". Panic would escalate quickly from there and I do not want to be out there in the chaos scrambling if/when it does.

 

[Svnla]

Commie china just says it has 97 more deaths. Over 2,400 deaths now and climbing. Daegu of S. Korea is very much shut down.

 

[Roger Wilco]

In the last 24 hours:

- 310 new confirmed cases outside of China—an increase of 34.79%. This is the highest number in a single day.
- 5 new deaths outside of China—an increase of 33.33%. This is the second-highest number in a single day.
- South Korea, Italy, and Iran appear to be experiencing extreme breakouts.
- Japan is experiencing exponential growth.
- Singapore, Hong Kong, and the UAE are all experiencing slow but steady growth.

 

[TheVrolok]

It doesn't sing and dance so it's not exciting. But IF the fatality rate is 5% then we're looking at a potential reduction in population as greater than the whole of the US.

Fatality rate will be higher in some places, lower in others based on demographics and quality of healthcare (and delivery thereof). The coverage is unsurprisingly sensationalist and playing a lot of games with "statistics." "Look at this percentage!!" with little discussion of the meat of the data.

Edit: I should be clear, though, this is certainly an issue and there will be non insignificant mortality worldwide (yeah, it's going to kill a good number of sick folks particularly in poor areas)), and there are certainly economic impacts, but I'm not exactly worried about doomsday and expect very little impact on our day to day here in the states.

 

[pmv]

Well, this sucks....

Chinese coronavirus patient reinfected 10 days after leaving hospital

So hard to tell what's going on from reports of single cases. Maybe the first 'all clear' was a clinical mistake?

As with the two examples of people being asymptomatic but infectious for more than two weeks, if those are representative it doesn't bode well for all the cases who get quarantined for two weeks then allowed to go home - but I've only seen reports of exactly two such cases, so, again, maybe someone got something wrong there and they weren't what they seemed?

 

[pmv]

Fatality rate will be higher in some places, lower in others based on demographics and quality of healthcare (and delivery thereof). The coverage is unsurprisingly sensationalist and playing a lot of games with "statistics." "Look at this percentage!!" with little discussion of the meat of the data.

Edit: I should be clear, though, this is certainly an issue and there will be non insignificant mortality worldwide (yeah, it's going to kill a good number of sick folks particularly in poor areas)), and there are certainly economic impacts, but I'm not exactly worried about doomsday and expect very little impact on our day to day here in the states.

Yes the coverage is sometimes a bit sensationalist, but to me it seems the other way round - the media aren't paying it as much attention as I would say it merits. It's distant, and in its very early days, but apparently advancing inexorably. It's like, I dunno, our car is stuck on a railway line and there's a tiny dot in the distance that we know is an oncoming train that is not going to stop. I'd like to hear more analysis of what can be done to slow its progress or to get off the line.

As for very little impact on 'day-to-day', maybe you live in a low-population-density rural area that doesn't get a huge number of international visitors! And don't have elderly relatives or existing health problems yourself.

I mean, yes it depends on the quality of healthcare, but, again, how much strain can even developed-countries healthcare systems cope with? (And what will happen when it reaches the refugee camps in the middle-east?)

Not that there's anything I can do about it, so rationally it maybe doesn't make sense to worry.

 

[brainhulk]

Well, this sucks....

Chinese coronavirus patient reinfected 10 days after leaving hospital

So hard to tell what's going on from reports of single cases. Maybe the first 'all clear' was a clinical mistake?

As with the two examples of people being asymptomatic but infectious for more than two weeks, if those are representative it doesn't bode well for all the cases who get quarantined for two weeks then allowed to go home - but I've only seen reports of exactly two such cases, so, again, maybe someone got something wrong there and they weren't what they seemed?

That can only mean it is a synthetic HIV hybrid and that establishes a reservoir in T lymphocytes

That can only mean it mutates so fast, that it can get you again in 2 weeks.

Damn!

 

[pmv]

That can only mean it is a synthetic HIV hybrid and that establishes a reservoir in T lymphocytes

That can only mean it mutates so fast, that it can get you again in 2 weeks.

Damn!

Synthetic? I still think that's crazy talk.

It means, I'm guessing, if it means anything and it's not a diagnostic error, that it's one of those conditions that the human immune system rapidly 'forgets' how to deal with. Or maybe there are slightly different 'strains' out there?

 

[local]

That can only mean it is a synthetic HIV hybrid and that establishes a reservoir in T lymphocytes

That can only mean it mutates so fast, that it can get you again in 2 weeks.

Damn!

Synthetic? I still think that's crazy talk.

It means, I'm guessing, if it means anything and it's not a diagnostic error, that it's one of those conditions that the human immune system rapidly 'forgets' how to deal with. Or maybe there are slightly different 'strains' out there?

What is more likely? Synthetic super virus that no one has confirmed even though many labs are evaluating the genetic structure and should notice some funny stuff. Or China being fairly overwhelmed and using not the most accurate testing let someone go that was not completely cured and the infection returned.

They need the bed space so anyone that is on the road to recovery that passes the very sketchy test is being discharged as recovered. Note it does not say the patient was sick just that they tested positive. This thing is obviously a persistent bastard even when it isn't giving you murder pneumonia so I know which way I am leaning.

but I'm not exactly worried about doomsday and expect very little impact on our day to day here in the states.

Get ready, I think this situation is going to change the world.

What Happens When the World's Pharmacy is Under Quarantine? - Alliance for American Manufacturing

The Coronavirus is further exposing America's dependence on China for our medicine.

americanmanufacturing.org

Apparently China is basically the only place that the meds we do have that work on this are made, and who do you think they are going to be sending the limited supplies to?

Meds are just the tip of the iceburg of the supply problem we are about to face. I am far more concerned about the short term loss of damn near everything made it China and typical foolish overreactions than I am the actual disease.

I truly hope this wakes the world up to the problems of having your critical supplies manufactured somewhere else and in many cases the world's supply is in one place these days, China. But I should probably be prepared to be disappointed.

 

[TheVrolok]

Yes the coverage is sometimes a bit sensationalist, but to me it seems the other way round - the media aren't paying it as much attention as I would say it merits. It's distant, and in its very early days, but apparently advancing inexorably. It's like, I dunno, our car is stuck on a railway line and there's a tiny dot in the distance that we know is an oncoming train that is not going to stop. I'd like to hear more analysis of what can be done to slow its progress or to get off the line.

As for very little impact on 'day-to-day', maybe you live in a low-population-density rural area that doesn't get a huge number of international visitors! And don't have elderly relatives or existing health problems yourself.

I mean, yes it depends on the quality of healthcare, but, again, how much strain can even developed-countries healthcare systems cope with? (And what will happen when it reaches the refugee camps in the middle-east?)

Not that there's anything I can do about it, so rationally it maybe doesn't make sense to worry.

I work in a city clinic that cares for a large portion of minorities with frequent international travel (although Latin in this case).

I am indeed fortunate enough be healthy, but do have a young child at home.

As I said, I'm not saying it's a non issue, it's a significant issue. I just don't get nearly as excited as many seem to based on a lot of speculation.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Fatality rate will be higher in some places, lower in others based on demographics and quality of healthcare (and delivery thereof). The coverage is unsurprisingly sensationalist and playing a lot of games with "statistics." "Look at this percentage!!" with little discussion of the meat of the data.

Edit: I should be clear, though, this is certainly an issue and there will be non insignificant mortality worldwide (yeah, it's going to kill a good number of sick folks particularly in poor areas)), and there are certainly economic impacts, but I'm not exactly worried about doomsday and expect very little impact on our day to day here in the states.

I don't go sensationalist stories especially in the sciences. How many times have we been threatened by asteroids and cured cancer?

The ironic thing is I wonder how many apparently panicked people are unprotected against influenza and pneumonia?

I don't know what a full blown pandemic will look like but IIRC you are a physician or similar and you know that in any system capacity is limited. IF there is a widespread outbreak in the US I would say we're incapable of dealing with it because of limited resources which are becoming scarcer. Someone who I will not mention because it's politics has been undermining efforts and arguably we are worse off than the snafu which was Ebola. Man, that was a fearmongering cluster and I wonder if staff is prepared to deal with this virus more than they were with Ebola.

BTW, I'm not loosing sleep.

 

[TheVrolok]

I don't go sensationalist stories especially in the sciences. How many times have we been threatened by asteroids and cured cancer?

The ironic thing is I wonder how many apparently panicked people are unprotected against influenza and pneumonia?

I don't know what a full blown pandemic will look like but IIRC you are a physician or similar and you know that in any system capacity is limited. IF there is a widespread outbreak in the US I would say we're incapable of dealing with it because of limited resources which are becoming scarcer. Someone who I will not mention because it's politics has been undermining efforts and arguably we are worse off than the snafu which was Ebola. Man, that was a fearmongering cluster and I wonder if staff is prepared to deal with this virus more than they were with Ebola.

BTW, I'm not loosing sleep.

Yep, I'm a physician, but of course in the name of intellectual honesty that doesn't in and of itself make me a content expert here.

I agree with everything you've said above.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Yep, I'm a physician, but of course in the name of intellectual honesty that doesn't in and of itself make me a content expert here.

I agree with everything you've said above.

I'd never put you on the spot nor should anyone else but you have access to information and perspectives not often found in the lay public which is why I mentioned your profession at all as I believe you have clinical experience and therefore exposure to people who are trained in infectious diseases.

Anyway, fear drives profit so news is always suspect and I only have access to the latest studies of most everything through connections with colleges and universities, a distinct advantage when one has too much time on their hands.

 

[Dari]

That can only mean it is a synthetic HIV hybrid and that establishes a reservoir in T lymphocytes

That can only mean it mutates so fast, that it can get you again in 2 weeks.

Damn!

There was talk early on about the virus having amino acids identical to those found in HIV after an analysis was done (in India iirc). Those could lend credence that this virus is man-made and got out. Question, has China let in our CDC yet? I heard the US was dangling $100m in coronavirus aid to China and other so maybe this may have been the grease to let our scientists in. I don't trust those Chinese numbers.

 

[CZroe]

There was talk early on about the virus having amino acids identical to those found in HIV after an analysis was done (in India iirc).

Those could lend credence that this virus is man-made and got out.

 

[pmv]

I work in a city clinic that cares for a large portion of minorities with frequent international travel (although Latin in this case).

I am indeed fortunate enough be healthy, but do have a young child at home.

As I said, I'm not saying it's a non issue, it's a significant issue. I just don't get nearly as excited as many seem to based on a lot of speculation.

Not at all saying you are wrong to feel differently (actually your comment was almost exactly what I said to someone in an email conversations about a month ago, before I'd started worrying), but as it now seems to be spreading in Italy my guess it will be here in London within a month or two. It's surely on it's way, and I'm not excited, I'm apprehensive!

As for flu protection - only the elderly are recommended to get flu shots here, because the NHS calculates it's not cost-effective to give it to everyone. It's never been the norm to be vaccinated against flu except for certain high-risk groups - was a surprise to me when I encountered Americans going on about flu-shots, didn't even know such things existed before then.

Though the elderly people I worry about with respect to this new virus are all in the group that do get such vaccinations. But flu is not as likely to kill those who get it as this new super-lurgi seems to be.

 

[CZroe]

Very few are qualified and determined enough to do that.
As you know from work many people just make crappy decisions

Sure, but I am glad we live in an era where we can get first-hand accounts directly from eye-witnesses who really do know better than CNN and speak truth unlike the official Chinese news agencies. This current situation demonstrates exactly why it's important not to limit yourself exclusively to credible mainstream sources.

I wouldn't presume to limit people's access to information from alternative sources just because some will take it as gospel. We are only responsible for ourselves. Time and time again, ensuring the free exchange of information has proven to be more important than trying to control people by limiting their exposure.

I, for one, am glad to have information from China that predicted US supplies of N95 masks were going to be depleted well before a US outbreak. If I had waited even days for the CNN article then they would have been gone, and even if they weren't, I would've had to react the exact opposite way they were telling me to react since they got the root cause of the shortage completely wrong and we're telling people NOT to do exactly what they SHOULD do.

When I hear from a credible eye witness that a single hospital has more cases than China was confirming for the whole of the province, I'm glad to be hearing it from the horse's mouth instead of China>WHO>CNN. Doesn't matter if that doctor is using YouTube to tell us. I don't automatically believe that the doctor is who he says he is and knows what he says he knows ("considering the source"), but when he reaches out through someone I've been following for years who absolutely would know, I'm more inclined to believe him than China Daily (obviously).

I'm glad to know one of the Wuhan labs was less than 300 meters away from the wet market even China pointed to as the origin, even if I'm not going to take that as confirmation that it was a lab accident (or worse).

I'm glad to know or consider many things sooner than I would know/consider them through the vetted sources some would like to limit us to.