NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[Muse]

Definitely, but I haven't actually seen anyone say that it would be gone by April. People are just speculating/hopeful that it could be or that it will be enough to end the quarantines. I also feel it's a bit too optimistic but that isn't a scientifically informed opinion either.

Obviously, the flu survives and limps through the summer into the next flu season every year so no one expects this to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 on its own. It may slow it down enough for us to eliminate it. It may only slow it down enough for the Olympics to happen without major issue. It may not slow it down at all but there is reason to believe it probably will. It certainly helped contain SARS.

1/2 the planet is in winter while the other 1/2 is in summer, the earth is a massive petri dish.

 

[sdifox]

Your a dollar short.

Least of my problems.

 

[Captante]

Least of my problems.

 

[sdifox]

I figured his stuff is worth less than tree fiddy xd

 

[ponyo]

I would not go to South Korea right now. That crazy cult lady and her cult leader have put South Korea at huge risk. And President Moon of South Korea is too much of a wuss to ban Chinese travelers. Medical care in South Korea is excellent, and they dealt with SARS and MERS so I believe they will eventually contain the coronavirus but I would avoid South Korea this year.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Again, this is terrible advice. Real, professional, journalism and media exists on YouTube. Some of the most credible sources on the matter are YouTubers with first-hand experience in China including how to circumvent China's censorship.

SerpentZA/LaoWhy86/ADVChina called the mask shortage and got the cause right many days before they actually ran out, only to have CNN misfire days later with an article directly misattributing the shortage to panicked Americans.

Bury your head in the sand if you want to or just accept the information with context of where it comes from. Doesn't matter if it's from the Falun Gong's Epoch Times or from the WHO. They have agendas. You might not even know the WHO's agenda if you stuck to CNN, NBC, etc. I certainly wouldn't have secured N95 masks for my mother and myself if it weren't for REAL news from YouTubers.

Because this

Coronavirus: US says Russia behind disinformation campaign

Thousands of fake social media accounts promote conspiracies and seize on international health concerns, say US officials

www.theguardian.com

While you may have a tuber you like we don’t know how they vet their information.

 

[CZroe]

Because this

Coronavirus: US says Russia behind disinformation campaign

Thousands of fake social media accounts promote conspiracies and seize on international health concerns, say US officials

www.theguardian.com

While you may have a tuber you like we don’t know how they vet their information.

Same goes for virtually any news. Always consider the source. Don't consider any to be experts or authoritative on their own. Most repeat what they are told... even if they have to hear it from two independent sources first.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Same goes for virtually any news. Always consider the source. Don't consider any to be experts or authoritative on their own. Most repeat what they are told... even if they have to hear it from two independent sources first.

We disagree upon people questioning the source.

 

[Arkaign]

This guy is really REALLY good with this reporting. Spends a fair amount of his personal time responding to people and educating them on the details as they are emerging (and with a skeptical, but not paranoid sensibility), for no pay or monetization. He straddles the line between simple and complex in his presentations, and has a knack for bringing the concepts of these things to an audience who probably has little background on epidemiology or even much biology, but he never talks down to his audience.

If you're looking for deep dives and rumors, political fireworks, etc, he's not your guy.

If you want ongoing concise updates in clear language presented by a kindly older British doctor, by all means please check him out. I came across him somewhat randomly, after my news searches seemed to inevitably lead me astray towards people who believe NASA and Elvis Presley planned Coronavirus from their fake shuttle launch facilities, or towards overly dry coverage that neither ask the right questions, nor recognize the clearly incorrect/incomplete info released to the public.

Highly recommended. Be well.

 

[CZroe]

We disagree upon people questioning the source.

Confused. I don't know how "always consider the source" could possibly be something we disagree on.

So... you're saying people should unquestioningly accept mainstream sources?

 

[Marius Dejess]

My observation is that countries in Africa and in South America do not seem to be invaded by this Covid-19 virus, am I correct, and what is the explanation?

 

[pmv]

My observation is that countries in Africa and in South America do not seem to be invaded by this Covid-19 virus, am I correct, and what is the explanation?

Just a guess with no expert knowledge, but those countries are geographically far from the source of the virus, and are not strongly-plugged-in to the international transport network. Also, they probably don't have particularly effective diagnosis and reporting systems. China has plenty of people working in African countries though, so I suspect it will happen.

 

[Arkaign]

My observation is that countries in Africa and in South America do not seem to be invaded by this Covid-19 virus, am I correct, and what is the explanation?

Africa is already primed for a major epidemic, it is emerging in Egypt, and bafflingly they have not locked flights out of China and Korea yet. It's almost certainly too late now. Iran is currently in a rapidly expanding infection of particularly voracious infection with a higher than previously seen mortality ratio. Hopefully that isn't due to some additional mutation, that would be disastrous indeed.

The recent discoveries that almost certainly prove this thing is both airborne and can spread and atomize out from water sources, combined with the asymptomatic/delayed yet ultimately contagious carriers, means this initial wave is about to look positively tiny compared to the next waves. These factors make for an exponential spread, and many nations simply lack the infrastructure to provide critical care, clean water, oxygen, antibiotics, sub-2nm isolation, etc, for the pursuit of care and prevention.

I spent the last few weeks mostly dismissing this thing as yet another round of what we've seen time and time again, some nasty new illness that turns out to be logically self limiting for various reasons of practicality. Unfortunately for everyone, and to my sincere embarrassment, the case with this virus is definitely not so easily defeated. In point of fact, it's possibly far worse than anyone expected outside of 'crazy' circles.

We'll know a lot in the next 48-72 hours. If Iran, South Korea, and the other accelerating post-China zones continue to accelerate in a geometric fashion, and the mortality rate turns out to be closer to 10%+ than 2.x% as the ChiComm govt was espousing, then we may be looking at many millions of dead as the floor, and potentially tens or hundreds of millions killed.

 

[BudAshes]

Definitely, but I haven't actually seen anyone say that it would be gone by April. People are just speculating/hopeful that it could be or that it will be enough to end the quarantines. I also feel it's a bit too optimistic but that isn't a scientifically informed opinion either.

Obviously, the flu survives and limps through the summer into the next flu season every year so no one expects this to eliminate SARS-CoV-2 on its own. It may slow it down enough for us to eliminate it. It may only slow it down enough for the Olympics to happen without major issue. It may not slow it down at all but there is reason to believe it probably will. It certainly helped contain SARS.

Swine flu crushed California in the summer...

 

[Arkaign]

Swine flu crushed California in the summer...

Yep. To wit; this COVID-19 source virus does not appear to have trouble infecting in equatorial climate nor colder zones presently. The flu doesn't die off, people measure the peaks and valleys of infected with an artificial manner of looking at it. We sometimes have several strains at once going around of the stuff, which can be common in a variety of diverse locations. Even our 'vaccine' for Flu is barely better than nothing at all, and sometimes completely useless if they guessed wrong about what would be the common strain in your region.

Now more than ever, we need to breach the gates of Artificial General Intelligence, and bring in the era of nanotech and ASI. The array of issues facing humanity and our ecosystems are only getting more bleak. A monumental leap forward in intelligence and by extension the ability to create systems which generate their own expansion, from which can eradicate disease, clean the plastics from the ocean, make obsolete all the weaponry of governments, is the greatest hope for the 21st century.

A bit of a tangent there I realize, yet looking at the clown shoes way in which the Chinese, the Koreans, the WHO, the CDC, the Egyptians, etc have blundered the handling of this, just reinforces the incompetence of our systems of government and authority. I feel that humanity peaked at some point in the past, and is now just declining in a shallow, impatient pool of cynical narcissism, drugged up on toxic pharmaceuticals, stuffed full of fake food, and taught at every turn to subscribe to political camps like they were sports teams, taught to hate, fear, and scream. But not taught to think. So, bring the damn Skynet online already, as soon as it can be created. It is likely our last chance.

In absentia lucis, Tenebrae vincunt

 

[Roger Wilco]

Italy is looking like it’s past the point of no return, and could serve as the epicenter of Europe. Iran said that all of their major cities are likely suffering from outbreak, so that may serve as the epicenter of the Middle East. I can’t imagine that India and Southeast Asia don’t have outbreaks, but none of those countries have reported any alarming numbers, so it’s impossible to know.

I also find it hard to believe that there are no outbreaks in the Americas either. The US and Canada do have a number of individuals under observation in self quarantine.

 

[pmv]

Africa is already primed for a major epidemic, it is emerging in Egypt, and bafflingly they have not locked flights out of China and Korea yet. It's almost certainly too late now. Iran is currently in a rapidly expanding infection of particularly voracious infection with a higher than previously seen mortality ratio. Hopefully that isn't due to some additional mutation, that would be disastrous indeed.

The recent discoveries that almost certainly prove this thing is both airborne and can spread and atomize out from water sources, combined with the asymptomatic/delayed yet ultimately contagious carriers, means this initial wave is about to look positively tiny compared to the next waves. These factors make for an exponential spread, and many nations simply lack the infrastructure to provide critical care, clean water, oxygen, antibiotics, sub-2nm isolation, etc, for the pursuit of care and prevention.

I spent the last few weeks mostly dismissing this thing as yet another round of what we've seen time and time again, some nasty new illness that turns out to be logically self limiting for various reasons of practicality. Unfortunately for everyone, and to my sincere embarrassment, the case with this virus is definitely not so easily defeated. In point of fact, it's possibly far worse than anyone expected outside of 'crazy' circles.

We'll know a lot in the next 48-72 hours. If Iran, South Korea, and the other accelerating post-China zones continue to accelerate in a geometric fashion, and the mortality rate turns out to be closer to 10%+ than 2.x% as the ChiComm govt was espousing, then we may be looking at many millions of dead as the floor, and potentially tens or hundreds of millions killed.

I don't believe it will be 10%. The figure so far appears to be about 3%. But that is pretty damn bad. Lots of reports I saw seem to have been minimising it by exageratting the lethality of flu, speaking as if flu has a 1% kill rate, when it's more like a tenth of that (actually, probably less, a fraction of 1%). I mean, this thing does seem to be way more than 20 times as lethal as seasonal flu, that's quite horrific enough.

Also the issue I don't understand is - isn't that fatality rate allowing for the fact that the most serious cases end up in intensive care. What happens in countries without ICU beds, or if it gets so bad the ICU places all fill up? If it's in Iran it will presumably be in Iraq and Syria before long, and, well, there are a lot of refugee camps round there, no? That could be pretty bad, surely?

And yeah, the reports of instances of people taking more than 2 weeks incubation period, while being infectious, are rather alarming.

 

[Arkaign]

Yep, the most diabolical element of the bastard is the often laggy gap from exposure to notable symptoms, during which the spread can be far and wide indeed, and that's compounded by the next wave of exposed and infected coming to the same point of varying degrees of symptoms, and further spread. Each stage of the spread is compounding vastly in geography and number of infected, including institutional environments (which would normally be a reasonable firewall to common viruses). For example, in a cruise ship or a prison, it's normal for a dozen or two people to come down with something. What is not normal, and of considerable ill omen, is how the cruise ship, and now the Hong Kong prisons, and the Korean neighborhood of the Christian separatists, etc are coming down virtually as an entire block of infected. This speaks to an immensely aggressive airborne modus operandi.

 

[CZroe]

My observation is that countries in Africa and in South America do not seem to be invaded by this Covid-19 virus, am I correct, and what is the explanation?

...another reason to think summer might slow things for the northern hemispheres.

Swine flu crushed California in the summer...

Sure did. I was living in San Diego at the time and can't shake the memory of my coworker turning a sickening blue right in front of me.

 

[Arkaign]

I don't believe it will be 10%. The figure so far appears to be about 3%. But that is pretty damn bad. Lots of reports I saw seem to have been minimising it by exageratting the lethality of flu, speaking as if flu has a 1% kill rate, when it's more like a tenth of that. I mean, this thing does seem to be more than 20 times as lethal as seasonal flu, that's quite horrific enough.

Also the issue I don't understand is - isn't that fatality rate allowing for the fact that the most serious cases end up in intensive care. What happens in countries without ICU beds, or if it gets so bad the ICU places all fill up? If it's in Iran it will presumably be in Iraq and Syria before long, and, well, there are a lot of refugee camps round there, no? That could be pretty bad, surely?

And yeah, the reports of instances of people taking more than 2 weeks incubation period, while being infectious, are rather alarming.

Yeah man, it's terrible I am hoping for the best, but I'm still waiting on a manner in which to view this with reasonable, logically founded positivity.

The numbers described from Iran so far have been 'drastically' higher than the reported 2% mortality of the Chinese reports. Also strange is that a number of deaths there have been recorded as people who fell ill in a very brief period and became critical and then unresponsive within a day or two.

Is this a new mutation? A particularly unfortunate co-infection present in Iran right now such as another flu or virus that could create a massively more deadly mix of things for the body to repel? No way of knowing for sure. Sadly, the extremely short-incubation-type infections are much easier to contain for obvious reasons, as it becomes far easier to classify and quarantine people or regions before widespread travel and spread is unknowingly allowed to contaminate larger zones.

But the truth is that these victims are far more likely to be cases similar to earlier accounts of individuals who were infected, fought a slow and long not super severe but in totality an exhausting battle that has a strange quiet spot towards the end, 13-17ish days in, only to have it sweep back in like a wildfire and cause a series of organ failures and septic shock, followed by complete cardiovascular failure. It only appears fast if you mistake the first part as the flu, or it otherwise isn't accounted for in the media account. So it would be my strong guess that someone early on, perhaps 3-4 weeks back came to Iran from Wuhan region as an asymptomatic carrier, and now we're on a second wave of carriers already. From a couple of days ago reports of less than ten, to now an enormous number of infected and cities being on the way to on lockdown.

Idk. It's definitely not fun to watch this spiraling towards ever larger scales of disaster. Anyone who can follow simple math and logic can see it's well beyond containment, is still on the rise, and is an almost perfect creation for spreading and infecting on a truly horrific scale.

 

[Arkaign]

...another reason to think summer might slow things for the northern hemispheres

Egypt is beginning, and with the widespread business connections between China and many African nations, I am leaning towards expecting the rise there in fairly short order, particularly due to the sanitary conditions and open toilets / ditches / streams / bodies of water used as places to deposit feces and human waste.

Thailand, and SE Asia as a whole present a similar example.

Though perhaps some hope can be found in the potentially slower spread.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Yeah man, it's terrible I am hoping for the best, but I'm still waiting on a manner in which to view this with reasonable, logically founded positivity.

The numbers described from Iran so far have been 'drastically' higher than the reported 2% mortality of the Chinese reports. Also strange is that a number of deaths there have been recorded as people who fell ill in a very brief period and became critical and then unresponsive within a day or two.

Is this a new mutation? A particularly unfortunate co-infection present in Iran right now such as another flu or virus that could create a massively more deadly mix of things for the body to repel? No way of knowing for sure. Sadly, the extremely short-incubation-type infections are much easier to contain for obvious reasons, as it becomes far easier to classify and quarantine people or regions before widespread travel and spread is unknowingly allowed to contaminate larger zones.

But the truth is that these victims are far more likely to be cases similar to earlier accounts of individuals who were infected, fought a slow and long not super severe but in totality an exhausting battle that has a strange quiet spot towards the end, 13-17ish days in, only to have it sweep back in like a wildfire and cause a series of organ failures and septic shock, followed by complete cardiovascular failure. It only appears fast if you mistake the first part as the flu, or it otherwise isn't accounted for in the media account. So it would be my strong guess that someone early on, perhaps 3-4 weeks back came to Iran from Wuhan region as an asymptomatic carrier, and now we're on a second wave of carriers already. From a couple of days ago reports of less than ten, to now an enormous number of infected and cities being on the way to on lockdown.

Idk. It's definitely not fun to watch this spiraling towards ever larger scales of disaster. Anyone who can follow simple math and logic can see it's well beyond containment, is still on the rise, and is an almost perfect creation for spreading and infecting on a truly horrific scale.

Iran has supposedly suppressed reports of infection for quite some time. The current reported mortality rate is likely very inflated.

 

[BarkingGhostar]

 

[Svnla]

Latest news -

S. Korea number of infections is 430 (for now) and at least 9,000 people are in quarantine. Vietnam is cancelling all schools until the end of February or even longer if necessary. Japan's number is up and so is Iran and Italy. I wonder if Cambodia would get any from the cruise ship that they took in a few days ago.

This year Mobil World Congress is canceled.

This is scary - " World Health Organization (WHO) director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday that there was still a chance to contain the virus, "but the window of opportunity is narrowing." "

Fears over containing novel coronavirus grow as cases outside China spike

Concerns are growing over the global spread of the novel coronavirus after a spike in cases outside of mainland China among people with no connection to China or the city of Wuhan, ground zero for the outbreak.

www.cnn.com

 

[TheVrolok]

Yawn. Still bored by Covid 19.