NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[Muse]

Though the elderly people I worry about with respect to this new virus are all in the group that do get such vaccinations. But flu is not as likely to kill those who get it as this new super-lurgi seems to be.

What I have seen/heard is that this corona virus has mortality on par with flu, not greater. The big difference that I'm aware of is that it is 2x as contagious. Where do you get the notion that it's more lethal than flu?

 

[Dari]

Sure, but I am glad we live in an era where we can get first-hand accounts directly from eye-witnesses who really do know better than CNN and speak truth unlike the official Chinese news agencies. This current situation demonstrates exactly why it's important not to limit yourself exclusively to credible mainstream sources.

I wouldn't presume to limit people's access to information from alternative sources just because some will take it as gospel. We are only responsible for ourselves. Time and time again, ensuring the free exchange of information has proven to be more important than trying to control people by limiting their exposure.

I, for one, am glad to have information from China that predicted US supplies of N95 masks were going to be depleted well before a US outbreak. If I had waited even days for the CNN article then they would have been gone, and even if they weren't, I would've had to react the exact opposite way they were telling me to react since they got the root cause of the shortage completely wrong and we're telling people NOT to do exactly what they SHOULD do.

When I hear from a credible eye witness that a single hospital has more cases than China was confirming for the whole of the province, I'm glad to be hearing it from the horse's mouth instead of China>WHO>CNN. Doesn't matter if that doctor is using YouTube to tell us. I don't automatically believe that the doctor is who he says he is and knows what he says he knows ("considering the source"), but when he reaches out through someone I've been following for years who absolutely would know, I'm more inclined to believe him than China Daily (obviously).

I'm glad to know one of the Wuhan labs was less than 300 meters away from the wet market even China pointed to as the origin, even if I'm not going to take that as confirmation that it was a lab accident (or worse).

I'm glad to know or consider many things sooner than I would know/consider them through the vetted sources some would like to limit us to.

Are you Asian? I ask because you guys are making things worse. Other than being the source of the virus I only see Asians walking around NYC with masks on. Some are even hoarding them, ruining others of getting them should they really need it. There isn't even a single confirmed case in NYC. Even before this coronavirus came about, Asians would wear masks simply because they didn't wear makeup and didn't want people seeing them, in addition to other vain reasons. A true waste of limited resources. Coronavirus is catching fire in China, Korea and Japan, the three places that just love wearing masks. Aint helping much now, are they?

Truth is, masks are really there to protect others from those wearing the mask. Wearing gloves, washing your hands frequently and not touching your face may go further in not getting this latest Chinese disease than sporting a 'cute' Mickey Mouse mask. Good hygiene and not eating cats, rats and bats also goes a long way in avoiding the next plague.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Not at all saying you are wrong to feel differently (actually your comment was almost exactly what I said to someone in an email conversations about a month ago, before I'd started worrying), but as it now seems to be spreading in Italy my guess it will be here in London within a month or two. It's surely on it's way, and I'm not excited, I'm apprehensive!

As for flu protection - only the elderly are recommended to get flu shots here, because the NHS calculates it's not cost-effective to give it to everyone. It's never been the norm to be vaccinated against flu except for certain high-risk groups - was a surprise to me when I encountered Americans going on about flu-shots, didn't even know such things existed before then.

Though the elderly people I worry about with respect to this new virus are all in the group that do get such vaccinations. But flu is not as likely to kill those who get it as this new super-lurgi seems to be.

Note that the elderly aren't always the victims with influenza. As an example there is the 1918 pandemic which even taking packing young soldiers like sardines for transport targeted youth at a higher rate.

Also H5N1 had a higher mortality rate in the 10 to early 20 year old age group than the elderly or younger. Also it should be noted that typically influenza wasn't the cause of death in the majority, but secondary bacterial infection and is why everyone should have a PVC13 or PPSV23 inoculation.

The proper use of each is well beyond the scope of this forum, but except for age the CDC guidelines make good sense.

One may say "But the CDC knows more than you"! and they would be right. They even know their guidelines are faulty on some things.

Here's the problem with vaccines. The CDC guidelines are based on a consensus which is updated periodically EVEN THOUGH the best medical science is sometimes at odds. Eventually things will change, but 2 to 5 years is a typical lag between guidelines and cutting edge. It's not their fault, it's the process. As a concrete example read up on historical zoster recommendations.

Any way, the best data I have found is that unless there is a contraindication, protection is limited to insurance coverage just as Zostrix was. Why? Because of secondary infections that the general population, not just children and the elderly prone too.

The complicating unknown is the length of protection and antibody titer levels at various ages. More work needs to be done.

Back to SARS-CoV-2 ( WHO terminology), the only protection is ordinary clinical precautions for now.

 

[Dari]

What I have seen/heard is that this corona virus has mortality on par with flu, not greater. The big difference that I'm aware of is that it is 2x as contagious. Where do you get the notion that it's more lethal than flu?

9-45M people got the flu in the US. 12-61K died from it. That is a ratio of less than 10% of 1%. According to the ChiComs, the ratio in China is 2% from Covid-19.

 

[pmv]

What I have seen/heard is that this corona virus has mortality on par with flu, not greater. The big difference that I'm aware of is that it is 2x as contagious. Where do you get the notion that it's more lethal than flu?

Well, the figures for the lethality of this condition seem to have slowly grown from 1% to between 2 and 3%. I can see that it's hard to establish that figure with any certainty, though, because I guess it depends on the time scales of infection to death/recovery, and also on the nature of the population being infected, and what health care they get. But most seem to say it appears to be about 2%.

Seasonal flu generally is stated, by most sources, to have a "kill-rate" of about a quarter of 1%. So this would be about 8 times as deadly, if not more.

I mean, I've never had a flu-shot in my life, and I guess I've had it a handful of times (though can't really tell the difference from a bad cold) and all it ever has been is a few days off work and a headache, fever, and a bit of shivering. I've actually never known anyone who died of flu or even had to be hospitalized.

Whereas even young people seem to be dying of this.

It certainly looks more deadly than flu, from what I see, but I'm open to more expert information.

 

[CZroe]

Are you Asian? I ask because you guys are making things worse. Other than being the source of the virus I only see Asians walking around NYC with masks on. Some are even hoarding them, ruining others of getting them should they really need it. There isn't even a single confirmed case in NYC. Even before this coronavirus came about, Asians would wear masks simply because they didn't wear makeup and didn't want people seeing them, in addition to other vain reasons. A true waste of limited resources. Coronavirus is catching fire in China, Korea and Japan, the three places that just love wearing masks. Aint helping much now, are they?

Truth is, masks are really there to protect others from those wearing the mask. Wearing gloves, washing your hands frequently and not touching your face may go further in not getting this latest Chinese disease than sporting a Mickey Mouse mask. Good hygiene and not eating cats, rats and bats goes a long way in avoiding the next plague.

Most of this discussion happened in this thread back in January so you probably missed it:
•Masks ran out in China early on, of course.

•Chinese pages popped up instructing other Chinese on how to order from US Amazon and medical supply places abroad. Nothing wrong with that. They need masks. We had masks.

•Amazon and the medical suppliers ran out of stock first, leaving contractor supply and hardware stores where availability was already spotty due to proxy buyers cleaning out random localities. This happened before many in the west even knew what was going on.

•The looming wider shortage was predicted by reports from those in-the-know with direct links to these Chinese sites. The Amazon shortage was already a thing.

•As the shortage worsened CNN and others misattributed it to American panic-buying and hoarding, even writing articles telling people that it was no more deadly than the flu (early on, remember?) and that they should not be buying masks while they still can.

•Those who knew better knew that it was far worse than the flu, was not contained, and that the masks would be long-gone by the time it gets here if they didn't get their masks immediately. Those who stuck with mainstream news would not realize the issue until later: When/if the disease comes here, the masks will already be gone.

My brother was in Thailand where he already needed to have a mask (second-worst outbreak at the time) so he already had masks. For my mother and myself, I secured two masks from Lowe's before telling others that Grainger, Lowe's, Home Depot, McMaster-Carr, etc would still have them but not for long. Only two. One for me, one for my mother. A less-than-reasonable amount. Not hoarding or scalping or panic-buying, since I can use them for my other projects regardless of whether or not the virus ever becomes a concern here and, if anything, I could justify buying MORE.

I considered ordering a contractor pack since you are supposed to replace them every few hours but deliberately did not since I knew that China really does need those more than we do right now. It wasn't a case of American panic-buying and depleting stocks. It was calm, rational, free-market dynamics.

 

[CZroe]

...
Back to SARS-CoV-2 ( WHO terminology), the only protection is ordinary clinical precautions for now.

That's actually ICTV terminology (International Committee on the Taxonomy of Viruses) but, yeah, they are more authoritative than the WHO in this matter. I don't see any reason to avoid the association with SARS now that it has killed more and spread more than SARS ever did.

 

[eRacer]

Fatality rate will be higher in some places, lower in others based on demographics and quality of healthcare (and delivery thereof). The coverage is unsurprisingly sensationalist and playing a lot of games with "statistics." "Look at this percentage!!" with little discussion of the meat of the data.

Coverage by the mainstream media (CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, ABC, CBS, NBC, etc.) in the US has been the opposite of sensationalist. It's almost criminal how little coverage the outbreak gets compared to other stories. Looking at CNN.com last night all of the following stories were placed above coronavirus news:

Clint Eastwood criticizes Trump's behavior
New Jersey governor says he has a tumor on his kidney
Man builds Trump shrine for his visit
Woman records racist rant on subway
Her killer claims she died from rough sex. He's not the only one using this tactic

Edit: I should be clear, though, this is certainly an issue and there will be non insignificant mortality worldwide (yeah, it's going to kill a good number of sick folks particularly in poor areas)), and there are certainly economic impacts, but I'm not exactly worried about doomsday and expect very little impact on our day to day here in the states.

I appreciate your optimism, but the US is no less immune to an outbreak than Italy, South Korea, Japan or many other countries. While panic at this point is counterproductive, to "expect very little impact on our day to day here in the states" is not the attitude that should be adopted by the US federal/state/local governments, US businesses or US citizens.

If this spreads uncontrollably across the US at a fairly rapid pace, it will not be a disease that will just "kill a good number of sick folks particularly in poor areas" in other parts of the world. The best hospitals in the US would be overrun with patients, a significant percentage of healthcare staff will be infected, people with life-threatening illness or injuries not related to the virus may not get treatment, insurance companies will go bankrupt and/or plans will be completely unaffordable, hundreds of thousands if not millions will lose their jobs and not be able to pay for anything. There is a huge percentage of US citizens living paycheck-to-paycheck and with little or no life savings. In certain ways the US actually is a "poor country" and will be vulnerable as a result. And if the US consumers are vulnerable so are the economies of just about every other nation in the world.

And even if the virus doesn't take a foothold in the US, its effects in China and elsewhere can still cause an economic trainwreck in the US that may begin within the next couple months.

 

[pmv]

That entire towns in Italy are now in 'lockdown', with 50,000 people facing fines if they attempt to leave their area, doesn't reassure me this is 'no worse than flu'.

I'm not worried about 'doomsday', but I am worried for the safety of elderly family members, and also that I might find it even more difficult to get a doctor or hospital appointment for the conditions I already have.

Also, people will be even less prepared to listen sympathetically to my complaints about my existing conditions if others around are dying of this virus.

 

[WelshBloke]

That entire towns in Italy are now in 'lockdown', with 50,000 people facing fines if they attempt to leave their area, doesn't reassure me this is 'no worse than flu'.

I was in Milan over the weekend!

 

[CZroe]

The people who know better have been saying "shame on you" to anyone comparing it to the flu since before Amused and others started doing it in this thread (based on what China was telling the WHO, of course). Accepting those numbers or any numbers derived from them at that point, knowing what we knew from first-hand accounts, was a reckless level of self-delusion all in the name of pacifying people with justified concerns.

Some had the nerve to insult people who knew better, even going as far as to call the mask situation "Alex Jones-level conspiracy theories" when you could read the Chinese posts instructing them how to order and check availability on Amazon yourself.

Riiiiight.

 

[eRacer]

I was in Milan over the weekend!

Congratulations?

Italy quarantines a dozen towns in coronavirus outbreak

Italian authorities said on Sunday that the total infection count had reached 132. Ninety of the cases are located in Lombardy where two elderly people have died in the outbreak.

Other cases include 25 in Veneto, including two in Venice, two in Emilia-Romagna and one reported case each in Lazio and Piedmont. Ansa, the Italian newswire, reported on Sunday that there were suspected but unconfirmed cases in Milan and the region of Umbria.

 

[WelshBloke]

Congratulations?

Italy quarantines a dozen towns in coronavirus outbreak

I also ate cheese made with unpasturised milk, had an omlette that was still runny in the middle and drank too much and risked the Italian trafffic!

 

[TheVrolok]

I appreciate your optimism, but the US is no less immune to an outbreak than Italy, South Korea, Japan or many other countries. While panic at this point is counterproductive, to "expect very little impact on our day to day here in the states" is not the attitude that should be adopted by the US federal/state/local governments, US businesses or US citizens.

Why not? You can expect a benign course and be prepared for worse, we do it literally every day. I remember when our faculties set up our Ebola decontamination rooms along with other preparations even though none of us had any real concern, simply because it's the appropriate thing to do.


[QUOTE="eRacer, post: 40076071, member: 136330]
If this spreads uncontrollably across the US at a fairly rapid pace, it will not be a disease that will just "kill a good number of sick folks particularly in poor areas" in other parts of the world. The best hospitals in the US would be overrun with patients, a significant percentage of healthcare staff will be infected, people with life-threatening illness or injuries not related to the virus may not get treatment, insurance companies will go bankrupt and/or plans will be completely unaffordable, hundreds of thousands if not millions will lose their jobs and not be able to pay for anything.
[/QUOTE]

Oh yeah, people aren't being sensationalist enough.....

Yikes.

 

[sdifox]

I was in Milan over the weekend!

Containment!

 

[WelshBloke]

Containment!

I can think of plenty of places in Milan where I'd be happy to be contained for a fortnight!

 

[sdifox]

I can think of plenty of places in Milan where I'd be happy to be contained for a fortnight!

Cask of ethanol mix no doubt.

 

[Muse]

9-45M people got the flu in the US. 12-61K died from it. That is a ratio of less than 10% of 1%. According to the ChiComs, the ratio in China is 2% from Covid-19.

I heard that flu mortality in US was 2%. Not true?

Hmm, I see those figures would be around 1/10 of 1%.

 

[eRacer]

Why not? You can expect a benign course and be prepared for worse, we do it literally every day. I remember when our faculties set up our Ebola decontamination rooms along with other preparations even though none of us had any real concern, simply because it's the appropriate thing to do.

That's nice. Your preparation didn't prevent 59 million US citizens from getting the swine flu in 2009.

According to the stats 265,000 were hospitalized and 12,000 died in 2009 from swine flu in the US. Based on what we've seen so far it looks like this outbreak could kill and hospitalize at 20+ times the rate of swine flu. Good luck if tens of millions of Americans get infected with this virus.

Oh yeah, people aren't being sensationalist enough.....

Yikes.

It is a fact the world's largest country and an economic powerhouse was brought to its knees in less than a month. We are not dealing with sensationalism here.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

I was in Milan over the weekend!

<Virus enters Wales>

 

[sdifox]

That's nice. Your preparation didn't prevent 59 million US citizens from getting the swine flu in 2009.

According to the stats 265,000 were hospitalized and 12,000 died in 2009 from swine flu in the US. Based on what we've seen so far it looks like this outbreak could kill and hospitalize at 20+ times the rate of swine flu. Good luck if tens of millions of Americans get infected with this virus.


It is a fact the world's largest country and an economic powerhouse was brought to its knees in less than a month. We are not dealing with sensationalism here.

Russia has a SARS-CoV-2 problem?

 

[Muse]

Well, the figures for the lethality of this condition seem to have slowly grown from 1% to between 2 and 3%. I can see that it's hard to establish that figure with any certainty, though, because I guess it depends on the time scales of infection to death/recovery, and also on the nature of the population being infected, and what health care they get. But most seem to say it appears to be about 2%.

Seasonal flu generally is stated, by most sources, to have a "kill-rate" of about a quarter of 1%. So this would be about 8 times as deadly, if not more.

I mean, I've never had a flu-shot in my life, and I guess I've had it a handful of times (though can't really tell the difference from a bad cold) and all it ever has been is a few days off work and a headache, fever, and a bit of shivering. I've actually never known anyone who died of flu or even had to be hospitalized.

Whereas even young people seem to be dying of this.

It certainly looks more deadly than flu, from what I see, but I'm open to more expert information.

I think they're suppressing the seriousness. They're reporting the 2% figure, not comparing to flu. I must have misinterpreted some information I got about flu mortality. ??

 

[WelshBloke]

Cask of ethanol mix no doubt.

Only for medicinal purposes!

 

[Muse]

Why not? You can expect a benign course and be prepared for worse, we do it literally every day. I remember when our faculties set up our Ebola decontamination rooms along with other preparations even though none of us had any real concern, simply because it's the appropriate thing to do.


[QUOTE="eRacer, post: 40076071, member: 136330]
If this spreads uncontrollably across the US at a fairly rapid pace, it will not be a disease that will just "kill a good number of sick folks particularly in poor areas" in other parts of the world. The best hospitals in the US would be overrun with patients, a significant percentage of healthcare staff will be infected, people with life-threatening illness or injuries not related to the virus may not get treatment, insurance companies will go bankrupt and/or plans will be completely unaffordable, hundreds of thousands if not millions will lose their jobs and not be able to pay for anything.

Oh yeah, people aren't being sensationalist enough.....

Yikes.
[/QUOTE]
Not to politicize, but which party would you prefer in the White House come 2021 if we're fighting this pandemic? Myself, the Democrats.

 

[eRacer]

Russia has a SARS-CoV-2 problem?

I could have replaced "largest" with "most populous", but I believe I am still correct once you start counting China's territories and colonies like Taiwan, Australia, Canada, assorted countries in Africa, etc.