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NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

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Mar 11, 2004
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This is going to be an endless cycle isn't it. :(
COVID shots will likely be like the flu shot (strongly recommended, probably not mandated) and be yearly in the best scenario. Worst is that because of anti-vaxxers we end up with a perpetual cycle of serious outbreaks with new variants coming because not enough people get the antibodies to suppress the virus' spread (and opportunity for it to mutate).

It will take time for human population to build up enough natural defense against it. I wouldn't hold my breath that it'll hold (i.e. this is the third serious COVID situation we've had in the last 20 years, so there's definitely possibility that future breakthroughs will happen even in what most would likely consider the current best case scenario; much like the flu where they have been worried about one like the 1918 Spanish Flu and we pretty regularly have years where the flu is worse than others).

So, plan on things like social distancing and mask wearing to become regular recommendations at times when its spreading, and please get vaccinated, as it is the single best thing you can do to help with this.
 
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Torn Mind

Diamond Member
Nov 25, 2012
6,333
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This is going to be an endless cycle isn't it. :(
It'll probably become "endemic". Although I doubt this thing gets really milder. It's just that few people who die or suffer long COVID simply get kicked to the curb if they get such effects.

I really fucking hate the constant references to the flu and cold. I got this illness and it is far different from either because the upper respiratory tract is not the principal worry or damage point. In fact, I hardly sneezed at all and had no runny nose. It's the lungs themselves, blood vessels(my nose did get a bleed after slight contact), nervous system( unlike others, my symptom was a decrease in internal aches and pains; my gums needed a cleaning badly but once the infection started, it's like a painkiller was administered to them), and heart where the terror lies.

While the vaccine will reduce the hospitalizations and deaths to a manageable levels, people should not be planning lives to make it as long as in the past. 65 may not be such an easy road anymore. Life insurance (and the murders associated with it) might get a gradual boon in business. It might pierce the vaccination armor at last when someone now 30...gets it for the whatever-th time at 60 years old.

The real kicker might be the governments might not mind it that way, because it helps them avoid inverted population pyramid issues if people start expiring earlier and don't hit Social Security age.
 
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gill77

Senior member
Aug 3, 2006
643
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What I am trying to do personally is to keep telling myself that things have changed. We have spent over a year developing data and trying to adjust our lifestyle to that data and in what seems like a blink of an eye, it's all out the window.

We know that Delta is more contagious and the vaccines are less effective, but we pretty much need to develop new data sets. I am going to play it close to the vest until this wave passes. There are some indications that it will be shorter in duration than the others. We can only hope.
 

Roger Wilco

Golden Member
Mar 20, 2017
1,217
770
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The U.S. is back to 1,000 deaths a day. I doubt we'll stop short of 700,000 before EOY. Hopefully we stop short of 1,000,000.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
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The U.S. is back to 1,000 deaths a day. I doubt we'll stop short of 700,000 before EOY. Hopefully we stop short of 1,000,000.
We are at 623k official Covid deaths now, projected to be ~700k at EOY.

But many, many people are denying Covid and demanding that Covid isn't on the death certificate of relatives. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/566295-missouri-coroner-removing-covid-19-from-death-certificates-if-families Thus, the true number of deaths will always be unknown. An estimate is the number of "Excess deaths" which is how many more people died than in typical years. We are at 958k right now. Projected to be over 1 million within the next month. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend Of course, not all excess deaths are Covid, but absent any other logical reason for deaths to skyrocket, Covid is the most likely cause.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,446
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What is the current best guess regarding boosters.
Will we stick with what we got as in I had Moderna will my booster be Moderna or Pfizer or will it matter?
Last I heard (OTA TV a day or two ago) stick with what you got (e.g. if Moderna, get Moderna booster). Also, first in line will be nursing homes and medical staffers, then the seniors. Obviously the immunocompromised will get preference, I assume before the seniors or maybe concomitantly. First availability middle September. J&J announcements probably forthcoming in a couple weeks. Evidently Moderna 2x vaxxed are better protected against Delta than Pfizer, but booster recommended 8 months after 2nd shot for both mRNA vaccines due to reduction of antibodies. Estimates are that booster will cause 10x increase in antibodies and Fauci thinks the boost may last quite a while, but obviously that data is way in the future.
 
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nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
52,089
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Well, I had to go to the original office to get the second shot.
Aha, I hadn't heard of that being a thing here.
Got both of mine at a CVS about 15 minutes from my home in April (and far as I know it was required at that point) so going there again would be no big deal, BUT the CVS a HALF MILE from me will be just a smidge easier!
I guess this could be a factor, I couldn't get mine until they opened them up to everyone in May, so it could be the restriction no longer applied at that point. I did get my 2nd one at the same place, but that was mostly because it was semi-convenient and I'm a bit of a creature of habit. Helps that it was a nice, scenic drive to that location too :p
 

JM Aggie08

Diamond Member
Jan 3, 2006
7,616
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Hopefully the boosters will have some delta secret sauce mixed in -- imagine they would sooner than later.

Also, authorization for toddlers plz.
 
Feb 4, 2009
31,385
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Last I heard (OTA TV a day or two ago) stick with what you got (e.g. if Moderna, get Moderna booster). Also, first in line will be nursing homes and medical staffers, then the seniors. Obviously the immunocompromised will get preference, I assume before the seniors or maybe concomitantly. First availability middle September. J&J announcements probably forthcoming in a couple weeks. Evidently Moderna 2x vaxxed are better protected against Delta than Pfizer, but booster recommended 8 months after 2nd shot for both mRNA vaccines due to reduction of antibodies. Estimates are that booster will cause 10x increase in antibodies and Fauci thinks the boost may last quite a while, but obviously that data is way in the future.
Yeah I heard a Dr on the radio say you should stick with what you got provided it is possible because there is solid data that it increases your resistance. Mix & match could be as good or possibly better but what we know know isn’t very good about how effective mix & match is with our vaccines. General consensus is mixing & matching is safe but it isn’t known if it is better.
Above is a summary I forgot the Doctors exact words and it comes with the disclaimer that could change when there is more data.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,446
4,060
126
Hopefully the boosters will have some delta secret sauce mixed in -- imagine they would sooner than later.

Also, authorization for toddlers plz.
I was sniffing for info on this, even a hint, in scrutinizing network OTA TV reporting on the issues the last few days. Not sure the boosters are going to have tweaked mRNA at all, may be the original formulations. I'd think, expect that any Delta tweak would be touted.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
31,446
4,060
126
We are at 623k official Covid deaths now, projected to be ~700k at EOY.

But many, many people are denying Covid and demanding that Covid isn't on the death certificate of relatives. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/566295-missouri-coroner-removing-covid-19-from-death-certificates-if-families Thus, the true number of deaths will always be unknown. An estimate is the number of "Excess deaths" which is how many more people died than in typical years. We are at 958k right now. Projected to be over 1 million within the next month. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend Of course, not all excess deaths are Covid, but absent any other logical reason for deaths to skyrocket, Covid is the most likely cause.
The only two people I know of personally who I think died of covid are not AFAIK officially covid victims. One definitely not officially, the other the family doesn't want the cause of death known.

We are at ~1,000,000 now, unofficially but very arguably.
How does everyone feel about booster shots?

I am honestly hesitant at the idea of booster shots, it just doesn't feel right. Will these be made mandatory as part of future vaccine passports?

Shouldn't we also be reaching herd immunity already? We're getting onto two years.
I'll get my booster ASAP.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
10,100
2,364
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We are at 623k official Covid deaths now, projected to be ~700k at EOY.

But many, many people are denying Covid and demanding that Covid isn't on the death certificate of relatives. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/566295-missouri-coroner-removing-covid-19-from-death-certificates-if-families Thus, the true number of deaths will always be unknown. An estimate is the number of "Excess deaths" which is how many more people died than in typical years. We are at 958k right now. Projected to be over 1 million within the next month. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend Of course, not all excess deaths are Covid, but absent any other logical reason for deaths to skyrocket, Covid is the most likely cause.
You do have to account for that early on (?) they were including people who tested positive and then died regardless of whether you could argue covid had any part of it. Nursing homes in particular, people get sent there to die.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
19,647
2,974
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The only two people I know of personally who I think died of covid are not AFAIK officially covid victims. One definitely not officially, the other the family doesn't want the cause of death known.

We are at ~1,000,000 now, unofficially but very arguably.

Reality is we are likely well over a million deaths especially if you count "related" cases.... at this point the actual numbers no longer matter much.
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,940
3,827
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You do have to account for that early on (?) they were including people who tested positive and then died regardless of whether you could argue covid had any part of it. Nursing homes in particular, people get sent there to die.
If someone has multiple conditions, it's entirely possible to argue that COVID is what pushed them over the edge, and bought their death forward, even if only by a matter of months.

Any 'over attribution' of COVID deaths like that is likely to be more than made up for by all the COVID deaths that weren't counted as such, due to lack of testing. As Dullard says, only the full 'excess death' data is going to say what the full impact of COVID was. From the data that's been published already it does look as if under- and over- counting of deaths in the US more-or-less cancels out. In many other countries the true figure looks to be far higher than the official death-certificate-based one. Massively so in the case of India and much of South America.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
19,647
2,974
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If someone has multiple conditions, it's entirely possible to argue that COVID is what pushed them over the edge, and bought their death forward, even if only by a matter of months.

Exactly .... a few years back I was extremely sick with the flu and potentially could have died.

Thing is it was 6 months + before I felt completely back to full health and if I'd passed from some otherwise completely unrelated malady/mishap due to being severely weakened during that time, I would NOT have died FROM the flu but it would have been "flu-related".
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
23,046
1,305
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You do have to account for that early on (?) they were including people who tested positive and then died regardless of whether you could argue covid had any part of it. Nursing homes in particular, people get sent there to die.
True, but the number of people that fit that category is actually quite small. There weren't many Covid deaths in that stage. Also, using that logic, you'd say we are all going to die, so there are no Covid deaths. So, you have to be careful. Like pmv said, if Covid accelerated a death, does that not matter?
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
23,046
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The claim was "early on" there were extra official Covid deaths that were not due to Covid but instead due to something else. Define "early on". Suppose we use the first 4 months of the disease in the US. Even if we wildly overestimate that half of the official Covid deaths were falsely attributed to Covid in that time frame, that is still just 8.6% of the total. There simply were not that many official deaths early on. No guessing needed.
 

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
19,647
2,974
126
The claim was "early on" there were extra official Covid deaths that were not due to Covid but instead due to something else. Define "early on". Suppose we use the first 4 months of the disease in the US. Even if we wildly overestimate that half of the official Covid deaths were falsely attributed to Covid in that time frame, that is still just 8.6% of the total. There simply were not that many official deaths early on. No guessing needed.
Still a guess though as to which deaths early on actually were from Covid and we'll likely never know for sure.

Not saying there's anything wrong with guessing unless its presented as fact.

;)
 

[DHT]Osiris

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2015
9,239
5,342
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The claim was "early on" there were extra official Covid deaths that were not due to Covid but instead due to something else. Define "early on". Suppose we use the first 4 months of the disease in the US. Even if we wildly overestimate that half of the official Covid deaths were falsely attributed to Covid in that time frame, that is still just 8.6% of the total. There simply were not that many official deaths early on. No guessing needed.
~375k deaths attributed to COVID in 2020:
The COVID-19 pandemic caused approximately 375,000 deaths in the United States during 2020.
~522k excess deaths recorded in 2020
Between March 1, 2020, and January 2, 2021, the US experienced 2 801 439 deaths, 22.9% more than expected, representing 522 368 excess deaths.
So, we're tracking very roughly 40% of COVID deaths (or deaths due to beds being filled by COVID patients) not being attributed to COVID.

At present we've recorded ~624k COVID deaths, if the numbers continue to track, we should be seeing a final 'excess death' tally of around 870k for 2020-2021 (breakout mutation notwithstanding).
 

Jimminy

Member
May 19, 2020
150
50
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I was sniffing for info on this, even a hint, in scrutinizing network OTA TV reporting on the issues the last few days. Not sure the boosters are going to have tweaked mRNA at all, may be the original formulations. I'd think, expect that any Delta tweak would be touted.
I think you're right. I got my third shot two days ago at the doctor's office. (I take some drugs for arthritis that suppress the immune system)

This shot was also moderna, same as the first two I had. We talked for a while about vaccines, and he didn't mention any special difference about this shot, so I guess it was the same as the earlier moderna. Maybe future versions will be different, but I bet they are using current stock for now.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
10,100
2,364
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The booster is not tweaked at all. I do wonder if this is Pfizer trying to double (triple?) dip.

I'd say you will see the multivariant vaccine. Just later.
 

gill77

Senior member
Aug 3, 2006
643
182
116
I have no specific knowledge about this, but one would think that changing the formula would require more testing, time and money.

Just make more of the same, get it into people's arms, and see what happens.
 

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