NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[JujuFish]

I dont think anyone can say what the long term effects are because not enough time has passed

What do you consider "enough time"? Do you have examples of vaccines where side effects didn't show up until over a year later? The MRNA vaccines started trials almost 17 months ago.

 

[gill77]

I did hear that it is likely to further boost my immunity. My struggle is: Is the risk vs reward worth it? One of my biggest issues is What are the long term effects of the vaccine? Simply put... I dont think anyone can say what the long term effects are because not enough time has passed

edit to add : I'm 56 yr old male and what I consider good health for my age ( only issue is borderline slightly high cholesterol high end of normal range)

Our approaches are quite similar, risk/reward analysis is almost impossible to ignore.

I also ended up with J&J, one of the first in my county to get it, my guess would be fifth. I gave it a good deal of thought myself, but it ended up being pretty clear cut since I am not the spring chicken that you are .

If I were 18, the numbers would crunch out a whole lot differently. This could well change and our approaches need to change with it.

"No plan survives contact with the enemy".

 

[Brainonska511]

I assume you know this since you say you're making a big effort to research the issues, but getting a single mRNA covid vax shot subsequent to your J&J would very very likely boost your immunity a ton at this point. I've seen this point made more than once in informed reports.
I think my comment would apply to you too.

The bold is a very very speculative statement. Speaking as someone who reads over a fair number of clinical trials as part of my job, stuff that appears like a signal in lab settings or in small populations or "in real world evidence" may not hold up when actually tested in a prospective trial. Let them run the trials to prove this is both true and necessary before we start giving people shots willy nilly. There might be some decent rationale for a select group of people to get boosters ahead of time, but we don't want to go down some rabbit hole of basing public policy on sheer speculation. The vaccines, at their current dosages and schedules, are doing quite a good job, even with the delta variant. And let's not forget about the fact that none of the vaccines have been tested prospectively to prevent any infection and we are contending with a situation where a hell of a lot of people haven't even gotten a single shot yet.

 

[echo4747]

What do you consider "enough time"? Do you have examples of vaccines where side effects didn't show up until over a year later? The MRNA vaccines started trials almost 17 months ago.

I could be wrong but dont most vaccines take somewhere around 3 yrs to get full FDA approval? I know they put these covid vaccines on fast track ( which I think is a good idea due to this virus rapid spread) The MRNA vaccines im pretty sure are a new type of vaccicne technology so I dont think there could be examples of long term side effects. Part of the reason I got the J&J vaccine is that it is an adenovirus vaccine. There is more history with these types so while it may/may not be as effective as phizer/moderna i was more comfortable receiving it. At the time Fauchi basically said just get whatever vaccine you can . I put a lot of trust in what he said at the time. Fast forward a few months I have mixed feelings about Fauchi.

 

[Brainonska511]

I could be wrong but dont most vaccines take somewhere around 3 yrs to get full FDA approval? I know they put these covid vaccines on fast track ( which I think is a good idea due to this virus rapid spread) The MRNA vaccines im pretty sure are a new type of vaccicne technology so I dont think there could be examples of long term side effects. Part of the reason I got the J&J vaccine is that it is an adenovirus vaccine. There is more history with these types so while it may/may not be as effective as phizer/moderna i was more comfortable receiving it. At the time Fauchi basically said just get whatever vaccine you can . I put a lot of trust in what he said at the time. Fast forward a few months I have mixed feelings about Fauchi.

One reasons other vaccines take longer for FDA approval is disease prevalence. The lower the incidence of a disease, the longer the trial takes before enough 'events' have accumulated to determine if you have efficacy or not. And also, there is a pandemic - it would not be ethical to continue to monitor people for a 2 year time period to compare the outcomes of active vaccination vs placebo to see the long-term effects.

As for the mRNA vaccines - it might be new to market, but they have been researched for a very long time. Consider also that mRNA is not exactly known for it's biological stability - it's extremely prone to degradation. With pretty much any vaccine, at the end of the day, side effects are going to arise from immunogenicity against the vaccine components and the products that are generated. In the case of the mRNA vaccines - mRNA isn't stable enough to generate any antibodies against; the lipids nanoparticles are largely just generic lipids, which your body probably won't react to in a meaningful way, and the spike protein that the mRNA tells some cells to make. So unless there is some human protein that easily cross-reacts with the antibodies generated against the spike protein, you're not likely to see some latent, long-term side effect.

 

[echo4747]

Our approaches are quite similar, risk/reward analysis is almost impossible to ignore.

I also ended up with J&J, one of the first in my county to get it, my guess would be fifth. I gave it a good deal of thought myself, but it ended up being pretty clear cut since I am not the spring chicken that you are .

If I were 18, the numbers would crunch out a whole lot differently. This could well change and our approaches need to change with it.

"No plan survives contact with the enemy".

Spring Chicken ... thanks Anyway I have a son just turned 13 yesterday. The wife and I talk about whether or not to have him vaccinated almost every day. If he contracted covid and god forbid died we would be devastated. On the other hand what if a few years from now they find out the vaccine causes a great increase in birth defects or some other type of serious ailment. As we understand it children in his age group beat covid roughly 99.9% of the time without hospitalization

 

[gill77]

Spring Chicken ... thanks Anyway I have a son just turned 13 yesterday. The wife and I talk about whether or not to have him vaccinated almost every day. If he contracted covid and god forbid died we would be devastated. On the other hand what if a few years from now they find out the vaccine causes a great increase in birth defects or some other type of serious ailment. As we understand it children in his age group beat covid roughly 99.9% of the time without hospitalization

Happy birthday to your son. Allowing your mind to even think of loosing him must be difficult.

Real world risks differ greatly with age:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db37.htm

 

[jpiniero]

Spring Chicken ... thanks Anyway I have a son just turned 13 yesterday. The wife and I talk about whether or not to have him vaccinated almost every day. If he contracted covid and god forbid died we would be devastated. On the other hand what if a few years from now they find out the vaccine causes a great increase in birth defects or some other type of serious ailment. As we understand it children in his age group beat covid roughly 99.9% of the time without hospitalization

I do think Pfizer used too high of a dosage for 12-15 but I think any issues would be found pretty quickly. That might be why 5-11 is taking so long because Pfizer used the same dosage as adults for 12-15 but below that is using a lesser dose.

 

[JujuFish]

I could be wrong but dont most vaccines take somewhere around 3 yrs to get full FDA approval? I know they put these covid vaccines on fast track ( which I think is a good idea due to this virus rapid spread) The MRNA vaccines im pretty sure are a new type of vaccicne technology so I dont think there could be examples of long term side effects. Part of the reason I got the J&J vaccine is that it is an adenovirus vaccine. There is more history with these types so while it may/may not be as effective as phizer/moderna i was more comfortable receiving it. At the time Fauchi basically said just get whatever vaccine you can . I put a lot of trust in what he said at the time. Fast forward a few months I have mixed feelings about Fauchi.

Brainonska, as usual, has a very informative reply. I'd also like to point out that adenovirus vaccines are also relatively new. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the US has never approved an adenovirus vaccine, and Europe has only approved one (the Zabdeno/Mvabea Ebola vaccine), just last year.

Also, and this question is open to anyone, I really would like to know if there are examples of vaccines showing long term effects that don't show themselves until over a year later.

 

[gill77]

Brainonska, as usual, has a very informative reply. I'd also like to point out that adenovirus vaccines are also relatively new. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the US has never approved an adenovirus vaccine, and Europe has only approved one (the Zabdeno/Mvabea Ebola vaccine), just last year.

Also, and this question is open to anyone, I really would like to know if there are examples of vaccines showing long term effects that don't show themselves until over a year later.

I believe Peter Attia had a guest on one podcast that said all or almost all proved harmful by six months. Not sure it is 100 correct, but it was much shorter than I thought.

Dealing with a novel virus, with a new type of vaccine administered under a EUA, I don't know that that the past is a perfect predictor of the future in this case.

 

[Kaido]

This is what a spokesman for one of our 2 hospitals said today:

"I want you to hear me loud and clear. We have 20-yr-olds dying from this." He said most of the hospitalized covid patients are in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, and "many of them are not going to survive."

That hospital has 70 covid patients of which 9 are vaccinated and 1 is less than 5 yrs old. The other hospital has 85 covid patients but no breakdown from them.

If you haven't gotten vaccinated, please do.

Pre-COVID, my friend worked as a nurse for the elderly. Occasionally someone would die of old age on her, but it was really more of a hospital caretaking role.. When COVID hit, they promoted her to head nurse (by force) & people started dying on her every day. It's taken a HUGE emotional toll on her (and apparently if you quit during an emergency like a pandemic, they blacklist you from future employment, so there's kind of no reasonable escape from those duties), as she works at one of the big hospitals in the area, and she's had people dying on her nearly every day for 15+ months now. Fortunately this month has had incredibly low numbers (I think like 3 total reported deaths), but we're now back to high transmission levels:

Daily coronavirus updates: Hartford County reaches ‘high transmission’ level for COVID-19. Hospitalizations climb to 174, weekly positivity rate for Connecticut now above 3%

Hartford County has now reached the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s highest level of community transmission of COVID-19 as a summer virus surge continues to infect Connectic…

www.courant.com

Statistically in my state, unvaccinated people are 17x more likely to test positive than vaccinated people:

Unvaccinated people in Connecticut 17 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than vaccinated people, even as breakthrough cases increase

Unvaccinated people in Connecticut have been about 17 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 during the month of July than vaccinated people, according to state data, even as breakthrough …

www.courant.com

I definitely had strong vaccine hesitancy due to my past health issues with heavy antibiotics in the past, but I'm also glad that (1) a vaccine is available, and (2) that I chose to get it & have some protection against dying horribly with a tube down my throat. Delta & Delta Plus look pretty nuts, so I'm going back to my WFH routine for now to avoid exposure as much as possible. Hopefully we can get a third injection or something to help combat that nonsense too!

 

[Brainonska511]

On the other hand what if a few years from now they find out the vaccine causes a great increase in birth defects or some other type of serious ailment. As we understand it children in his age group beat covid roughly 99.9% of the time without hospitalization

You also need to consider issues with 'long covid' that could arise from infection, as well as the chance that he could spread it to others who may not do as well.

There is always a chance (ie, >0%) that there could be some long-term effect, but given that tens of thousands received the vaccine in well-controlled trials, and millions have received it in the real world, and we're not seeing any major issues arise, I don't think that's something people realistically have to worry about.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the US has never approved an adenovirus vaccine, and Europe has only approved one (the Zabdeno/Mvabea Ebola vaccine), just last year.

I believe you are correct on this point - viral vector-based vaccines have been tested before, but they haven't been widely deployed or approved. Though, they aren't a new idea, and have been considered for decades.

 

[Muse]

Just watched this video, which I recommend. It's ~11 minutes, zdoggMD, who I've seen before, explaining a bunch of stuff with regard to Delta and the remarkable unpredictability of the virus in terms of surges and the reasons therefore. He thinks there's a real good chance that the Delta surge here will collapse in a few weeks, explains why.

 

[Muse]

In this ~5 minute video, Dr. Mike Hansen discusses breakthrough infections, and among other things, around 80% through states and explains why vaccinated breakthough people aren't going to spread Delta as much as unvaccinated people.

 

[Muse]

The bold is a very very speculative statement. Speaking as someone who reads over a fair number of clinical trials as part of my job, stuff that appears like a signal in lab settings or in small populations or "in real world evidence" may not hold up when actually tested in a prospective trial. Let them run the trials to prove this is both true and necessary before we start giving people shots willy nilly. There might be some decent rationale for a select group of people to get boosters ahead of time, but we don't want to go down some rabbit hole of basing public policy on sheer speculation. The vaccines, at their current dosages and schedules, are doing quite a good job, even with the delta variant. And let's not forget about the fact that none of the vaccines have been tested prospectively to prevent any infection and we are contending with a situation where a hell of a lot of people haven't even gotten a single shot yet.

Yes, I think you're right, "the jury's out" on this. It's speculative. However, it still may be true.

 

[Torn Mind]

That's good way to get yourself beat up. If someone doesn't want to get vaccinated, it's their business. What does it matter to you? Don't tell me it's because they can spread the virus. Because delta has shown vaccinated individuals can spread it too. As long as they're taking the same precautions and wearing masks, it's not my business to say what they do to their bodies. I have relatives who are not vaccinated but some are finally giving in because their job is now going to make it mandatory. It's either get vaccinated or lose their job. So they're choosing to get vaccinated because they need the income from the job. But if they were financially independent, they wouldn't get the vaccine. I don't agree with them but I respect their opinion. Many of you lack perspective and respect. It's groupthink hive mentality. Have some respect for opinion of others.

The main legitimate sentiment for "healthy individuals" hesitating with getting vaxxed boils down to lack of "warranty/insurance" along with the suspicion that if shit does hit the fan, the provider will do what a shady businessman would do rather than some who cares about the well-being of the patient. I mean, an officer of the law tried his darndest to assert he didn't kill a man and that drugs and stuff did.....

Reasons like nanobots, poison, the virus is "myth" etc are essentially follies to believe.

The latest news cycle has indeed made a toxic false dichotomy between vaccinated and unvaccinated, exploiting the previously built up sentiment among many of the vaccinated that they are, "impenetrable". That was always an erroneous inference regardless but it's the way to get the intellectuals to commit "manslaughter" and not even know or own up to it. It is that inferred perception of impenetrability, along with visual "credence" via CDC removing the mask mandate when Delta was already here, that likely played a substantial role in spread the virus via 4th of July celebrations.

 

[manly]

"I'm not antivax, I'm just for everyone making their own decisions, even though we live in a society where some types of decisions can have profound effects on other people."

It's just another form of JAQing off, moving goal posts, and being anti-vax. An attempt to give a veneer of not being a complete, self-centered nincompoop.

Death cultists are perfectly fine with a small percentage of the population dying of an infectious disease that is currently preventable; it's a feature, not a bug. If you really think about it, SARS-CoV-2 is kind of the perfect virus for a pandemic. A relatively low fatality rate, but a relatively high R0 accompanied with significant asymptomatic spread. Although we should all agree the "see no evil" approach is incredibly wrong, the outcomes for Western societies before vaccines were developed was never going to be pretty. Esp. not in America, with our heavy streak of individualism paired with "freedumb" politics.

Otherwise I agree with you that now that highly effective vaccines are available, there are no sensible excuses to justify riding it out.

 

[Zorba]

Finally some sanity. I have been following this forum not for any information of value, but to monitor the mindset of the man on the street so to speak.

Post after post demeaning those who don't get vaccinated that surely had to end with the emergence of Delta. I was curious how these "follow the science" folks would change their rhetoric now that the science has changed. They seem incapable of doing so, at least so far.

The above article documenting how essentially all the invitees (all vaccinated) were infected by the asymptomatic host (vaccinated) should be an eye opener. Had the host not been vaccinated he might have had symptoms and called off the party. In addition, each of these cases were breakthrough cases. They are the ones that are most apt to lead to the virus evolving further away from our control by vaccination. It is just like finishing your prescription of antibiotics.

This is not rocket science, if you can approach it with clarity of thought.

If I were in a car accident today my family would have to be taken out of the state to get a hospital bed because of all the antivaxers. People are quitting their hospital jobs because if antivaxers. So their stupidity did effect everyone.

Not a single pediatric bed available in the state.

And obviously the vaccine slows the spread, because the amount of cases right now is inversely proportional to the vaccination rate.

 

[Zorba]

well... now i'm seeing another variant is already out . Delta+ variant https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2...ovid-variant-detected-san-francisco-bay-area/

as far as whether or not to get the vax, I've read so many things both pro/anti ...I just don't know what to believe anymore (personally i got the J&J vax on 3/31 initially i was happy I got the shot... but every so often I question whether or not it was the best decision)

Read on real sources, like those ending with .gov, and there will be no mixed messages. The anti is all pushes by either the clueless or people that make money off you being scared of the vaccine.

 

[Zorba]

I did hear that it is likely to further boost my immunity. My struggle is: Is the risk vs reward worth it? One of my biggest issues is What are the long term effects of the vaccine? Simply put... I dont think anyone can say what the long term effects are because not enough time has passed

edit to add : I'm 56 yr old male and what I consider good health for my age ( only issue is borderline slightly high cholesterol high end of normal range)

Research this, what vaccine has had any long term effects that weren't evident in the first 60 days? I keep asking, no anti person had been able to answer and even on the antivax websites I haven't seen anything.

 

[MrSquished]

Finally some sanity. I have been following this forum not for any information of value, but to monitor the mindset of the man on the street so to speak.

Post after post demeaning those who don't get vaccinated that surely had to end with the emergence of Delta. I was curious how these "follow the science" folks would change their rhetoric now that the science has changed. They seem incapable of doing so, at least so far.

The above article documenting how essentially all the invitees (all vaccinated) were infected by the asymptomatic host (vaccinated) should be an eye opener. Had the host not been vaccinated he might have had symptoms and called off the party. In addition, each of these cases were breakthrough cases. They are the ones that are most apt to lead to the virus evolving further away from our control by vaccination. It is just like finishing your prescription of antibiotics.

This is not rocket science, if you can approach it with clarity of thought.

This is definitely not rocket science and you still are terrible at it. It's not just about spreading the virus, it's about needing care in a hospital. Of course you don't give two shits about the hospitals that are now being stressed, or the employees being overworked or just dealing with preventable cases, or an 11 month old being airlifted 150 miles because Houston ran out of pediatric beds.

Bottle rocket science is apparently too advanced for you.

 

[jpiniero]

Research this, what vaccine has had any long term effects that weren't evident in the first 60 days? I keep asking, no anti person had been able to answer and even on the antivax websites I haven't seen anything.

Mrna vaccines are different. You can't compare it's safety record to any previous vaccine really. I personally think that's good but it's not out of the question that something could come up.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Finally some sanity. I have been following this forum not for any information of value, but to monitor the mindset of the man on the street so to speak.

Post after post demeaning those who don't get vaccinated that surely had to end with the emergence of Delta. I was curious how these "follow the science" folks would change their rhetoric now that the science has changed. They seem incapable of doing so, at least so far.

The above article documenting how essentially all the invitees (all vaccinated) were infected by the asymptomatic host (vaccinated) should be an eye opener. Had the host not been vaccinated he might have had symptoms and called off the party. In addition, each of these cases were breakthrough cases. They are the ones that are most apt to lead to the virus evolving further away from our control by vaccination. It is just like finishing your prescription of antibiotics.

This is not rocket science, if you can approach it with clarity of thought.

People have become so "Follow the science" - but when the science starts to no longer follow their bias' - they quickly and gladly divert into conspiracy theory level stuff

The moment the CDC said masks were no longer needed after full vaccination - they went absolutely ape. Tribal monkeys that pillaged and demanded the science be revised to suit their fear-mongered narrative.

All because they can't understand or wrap their head around the scientific fact that vaccines aren't made for the virus' to magically go away like a unicorn. It's to make our bodies prepared for it.

 

[allisolm]

The point is Delta has changed everything. Vaccines appear to do a great job at keeping you alive but that is about it.

You are as likely to be infected now by a vaccinated person as a non-vaccinated person, perhaps even more so.

The only reason now to brow beat an individual to get vaccinated is that they are in a group likely to die of covid and you feel this individual is not gauging his risk reward properly and you have a degree of empathy.

I don't know bout you, but I think that keeping alive is a noble goal in itself and certainly worthy of getting vaccinated in order to achieve.

Currently the hospitals where I am are so full of covid that patients with other issues can't even have visitors and ICU beds are so occupied with covid patients that anyone needing to be in the ICU for any other reason can't get in, and the vast majority of people taking up the space and hogging all the time of the medical staff are those unvaccinated folks. So getting them vaccinated is the best interests of EVERYONE.

 

[Ajay]

<sigh> I just hope we can stop the bickering back and forth in this NON_POLITICAL thread.
Please go to P&N if you want to argue with someone over their Covid vaccine stance.
@ponyo @Muse and whoever else.