NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[rcpratt]

Well, I guess we’re going to have to rebook and spend our first three days in Seoul rather than Beijing. I was holding out some hope that things would turn around in the next two months, but it’s hard to see that happening now. Bummer, that was the part of the trip I was most excited about.

Silver lining, I guess our savings in Chinese visas will cover the increased flight cost?

This vacation is going FANTASTICALLY. Anybody want to come over for our neighborhood barbecue the day after we get back?

 

[ponyo]

Pretty sure Jap/China are faking # at this point, when Iran have more cases than Jap and SK upped more than China something don't add up. Or if you go by their # the outbreak will be done in 3weeks.

The only numbers I trust at this point are from South Korea and Italy.

 

[ponyo]

This vacation is going FANTASTICALLY. Anybody want to come over for our neighborhood barbecue the day after we get back?

Just cancel the trip. The airlines all said they would offer refund if you want to cancel.

 

[CZroe]

This is the problem with the internet and wrong information, it makes us stupid as a society.

The morality rate for the flu is 0.1% - (that's like 1 out of every 1,000)
The morality rate for Coronavirus is 2% to 4% - (that's like 20 to 40 out of every 1000)

Major media networks were the ones pushing that "flu is worse" lie. Early on they were drawing comparisons based on WHO numbers that were based on China's numbers with no regard for the truth.

The internet at large was correct from the start. The people repeating the media narrative on the internet are the ones with egg on their face, including those in this very thread.

 

[brainhulk]

This vacation is going FANTASTICALLY. Anybody want to come over for our neighborhood barbecue the day after we get back?

LoL

 

[pmv]

This is the problem with the internet and wrong information, it makes us stupid as a society.

The morality rate for the flu is 0.1% - (that's like 1 out of every 1,000)
The morality rate for Coronavirus is 2% to 4% - (that's like 20 to 40 out of every 1000)

It seems as if nobody truly knows what the mortality rate for this virus is.

A WHO scientist just argued that Iran and Italy are massively under-counting cases, based on her research that suggests the 'true' mortality rate is 1%. Logically as Iran is reporting about 1 death for every 10 reported cases, that would imply they actually have ten times as many cases as they are reporting/finding.

Which seems both good and bad news - good news that the death rate is considerably lower than it appears becuase of all the undiagnosed (maybe even unsymptomatic?) cases, the bad news that it's going to be near-impossible to stop it spreading - becuase of all the undiagnosed (maybe even asymptomatic?) cases.

It's coming, we all might well get it, and it might be really nasty or fairly mild, and maybe, perhaps, 1% of those getting it will die. Or maybe not! Not much that can be done, as far as I can see, but I hope it turns out a vaccine is possible.

 

[pmv]

The only numbers I trust at this point are from South Korea and Italy.

From the Guardian's blog

Prof Christl Donnelly, a leading statistical epidemiologist, has warned that based on death tolls, the outbreaks in Italy and Iran are likely to be far greater than confirmed cases in both countries suggest.
Iran has reported 22 deaths but just 141 cases, and Italy has reported 12 deaths and 470 case.
Donnelly who works at the University of Oxford and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, at Imperial College London, said her research suggest the number of cases in both countries is likely to be over 1,000.

In a comment distributed by the Science Media Centre, she said:

“It is not surprising that we have seen additional cases today. The estimate from our work at Imperial College London is that about 1% of infections with the virus responsible for covid-19 are fatal, so the total of 12 deaths to date in Italy suggests many more than the 470 cases detected so far.
Our best estimate would be over 1000 cases. Each undetected case creates at least the potential for onward spread. This combined with frequent travel to and from affected regions, means that all countries are at risk of detecting cases both in travellers and those they came into contact with.”
[/'QUOTE]

 

[TheVrolok]

Major media networks were the ones pushing that "flu is worse" lie. Early on they were drawing comparisons based on WHO numbers that were based on China's numbers with no regard for the truth.

The internet at large was correct from the start. The people repeating the media narrative on the internet are the ones with egg on their face, including those in this very thread.

You do not have enough data to support your claim. The current data on Covid-19 is just not comparable to flu data aside from speculation. Sure you CAN compare it, and in some ways, we have to, but it is not even remotely close to as concrete as you pretend.

Hopefully a better understanding of statistics will come out of this in the end.

 

[Muse]

This is the problem with the internet and wrong information, it makes us stupid as a society.

The morality rate for the flu is 0.1% - (that's like 1 out of every 1,000)
The morality rate for Coronavirus is 2% to 4% - (that's like 20 to 40 out of every 1000)

2-4% is too high, it's probably 1/10th that, reason being that they're vastly underestimating the number of infections. The great majority are undetected. Partly because people are asymptomatic for quite a while, some remain asymptomatic, people are passing it on before they are symptomatic. The interview posted here of Dr. Gottlieb a few pages back makes the case for these ideas.

This is not that interview, but was probably conducted later in the week:

Gottlieb: Japan appears to be on the cusp of a large coronavirus outbreak

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, Pfizer board member and former FDA commissioner, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss the latest on the novel coronavirus fears and the impact on public health and business.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Captante]

You do not have enough data to support your claim

While I certainly respect your opinion as a medical pro considerably more then the average ATOT member, I could say the same to you.

Unfortunately I don't think anyone has a firm handle on whats really going on. Even more unfortunately my guess is that its far worse then what we're being told.

Sincerely hope to be proven wrong...

 

[TheVrolok]

While I certainly respect your opinion as a medical pro considerably more then the average ATOT member, I could say the same to you.

Unfortunately I don't think anyone has a firm handle on whats really going on. Even more unfortunately my guess is that its far worse then what we're being told.

Sincerely hope to be proven wrong...

I absolutely agree with you with regard to data, which is why I'm not actually drawing any conclusions. I've said this numerous times, we need to be prepare, certainly, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

On what do you base your guess that it's far worse? Or is it just the only way you feel comfortable to prepare?

 

[Muse]

as it has been said before,thousands will die,billions will live.The ones who died already had other health problems and that's why they died.Even if you get it,unless you have other serious health issues or are 80 years old,you'll be fine.Also please for the love of god don't panick like the other people who are buying food for the next half an year,just turn the fake news on your TV off and relax.

There's some wishful thinking there. I wouldn't assume that you only die from this if you're health is compromised or you're 80 YO. I don't think it's well understood now. Some 15% are coming down serious, i.e. need treatment. I'd say if you get it, you should be concerned and take care of yourself and if you start to struggle, try to get the attention you need! That would, I think, be treatment for pneumonia.

 

[Captante]

On what do you base your guess that it's far worse?

Just gut-feeling ... everything I've been hearing from "authority-figures" feels like damage control to me.

Again I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Muse]

Just gut-feeling ... everything I've been hearing from "authority-figures" feels like damage control to me.

Again I hope I'm wrong.

To me, the video I've been seeing, especially early on from China was very alarming. TBH, to me it looked like a sensationalistic science fiction movie about some imagined pandemic. But I have no reason to believe any of that was staged. They were "scared shitless." I'm supposed to go "ho hum, nothing to see here?"

 

[Svnla]

I would NOT believe the numbers/data from commie china, Japan, and Iran.

Comie china - would lie and lie and do anything to make xi/ccp looks better and to control ordinary chinese.

Japan - anything and everything to protect the Olympics, which is a few more months to go (July 2020) and from what I heard/read, it will go on as scheduled for now.

Iran - same as commie china. To protect the ruling regime and control the populate.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

My question is: If the fatality rate is very low why is there so much worry? The common flu has a much higher death rate, yet I don't see people freaking out over it.

Shouldn't we just go on about our day. If it strikes, it will mostly be fine. You'll get sick, and that will be it. You might not even get sick, or just have a low grade fever. You have to wonder how much the news is hyping up fears about this virus. The point is you'll probablly die from a car accident then this virus.

Where have you been? The mortality rate of Coronavirus is much higher than the common cold, or flu. Like an order of magnitude or two more.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

At this point it sounds like were pretty fucked. Instead of everyone trying to avoid it and making this draw out to be a 6-12 month ordeal it almost sounds easier to just have a mass infection.


.... You first though

 

[IronWing]

This sounds extremely sub optimal

https://twitter.com/x/status/1232869886189129729

Off topic: Is there such a crime as aggravated architectural malpractice?

 

[Captante]

At this point it sounds like were pretty fucked. Instead of everyone trying to avoid it and making this draw out to be a 6-12 month ordeal it almost sounds easier to just have a mass infection.


.... You first though

Covid-19 sleepover-party?

 

[Svnla]

Only if everyone follows the etiquette of sneezing/coughing - https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/hygiene/etiquette/coughing_sneezing.html and clean their hands at least 20 seconds.

Individuals (plural) are still not covering their mouths/noses. So nasty and rude.

 

[local]

Only if everyone follows the etiquette of sneezing/coughing - https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/hygiene/etiquette/coughing_sneezing.html

Individuals (plural) are still not covering their mouths/noses. So nasty and rude.

LOL. 100 years later, same old story.

The Committee of the American Public Health Association (APHA) issued a report outlining appropriate ways to prevent the spread and reduce the severity of the epidemic. They noted first that the disease was extremely communicable and "spread solely by discharges from the nose and throats of infected persons." They sought to prevent infection by breaking the channels of communication such as droplet infection by sputum control. They believed that infection occurred by the contamination of the hands and common eating and drinking utensils. Thus they called for legislation to prevent the use of common cups and to regulate coughing and sneezing. They wanted to initiate education programs and publicity on respiratory hygiene about the dangers of coughing, sneezing and the careless disposal of nasal discharges. They aimed to teach people the value of hand-washing before eating and the advantages of general hygiene (JAMA, 12/21/1918). Public Health Departments issued Flu Posters to educate the community and reduce the spread of infection

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Response

virus.stanford.edu

 

[CZroe]

While I certainly respect your opinion as a medical pro considerably more then the average ATOT member, I could say the same to you.

Unfortunately I don't think anyone has a firm handle on whats really going on. Even more unfortunately my guess is that its far worse then what we're being told.

Sincerely hope to be proven wrong...

I'm more concerned with why he would chose to call out my much more likely assumption instead of Mai72's assumption that the flu was worse. At least mine is based on what we already think we know.

He could've called us both out but instead people saying "the flu is worse" go unchallenged.

Granted, even I believe the 1918 flu was worse, but that definitely ain't what "the flu is worse" is meant to convey.

 

[mrblotto]

You're misinformed. The "common flu" as you call it (it's never the same, always mutating) has a death rate (I assume average) of 1/10th of 1%. This covid-19 virus has a probable death rate of 0.2-0.5%, so that's at least 2-5x higher death rate.

In other words
1/10 of 1% = .001

.2% - .5% = .002 - .005

would be better to keep the units the same. Much easier to read

 

[noscop3]

There's some wishful thinking there. I wouldn't assume that you only die from this if you're health is compromised or you're 80 YO. I don't think it's well understood now. Some 15% are coming down serious, i.e. need treatment. I'd say if you get it, you should be concerned and take care of yourself and if you start to struggle, try to get the attention you need! That would, I think, be treatment for pneumonia.

No,don't misunderstand me,I wasn't trying to tell people to ignore their symptoms if they think they have it,I was advising them not to overreact.I totally agree that it isn't well understood but not anyone is going to die from it.Sure you can get it,but there is a difference between having it and being sick.For example,for people that are very young and healthy it will be just like some kind of cold and nothing more.

 

[TheVrolok]

I'm more concerned with why he would chose to call out my much more likely assumption instead of Mai72's assumption that the flu was worse. At least mine is based on what we already think we know.

He could've called us both out but instead people saying "the flu is worse" go unchallenged.

Granted, even I believe the 1918 flu was worse, but that definitely ain't what "the flu is worse" is meant to convey.

Currently, in the US the flu is worse. Will it stay that way? I don't know.

Is Covid-19 worse than the flu world wide? Define worse? More fatal? Probably, but we just don't know yet.

I'm not going one way or the other, I'm remaining agnostic.

BTW, Dr. Fauci just a week ago stated that currently the flu was more worrisome than Covid-19 for the US. Remember, the guy Trump was mentioning during the conference? Can that change? Certainly, I'm just not in it for sensational speculation.