NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[KMFJD]

Unless you provably achieve eradication (like New Zealand) constant intense vigilance is going to be required until vaccines are in the population. SK has flares also and they've got an amazing response.

Speaking of which...

Covid-19: Two new cases in New Zealand, both arrivals from UK

There are two new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, the Ministry of Health has confirmed.

www.rnz.co.nz

they allowed people in on compassionate reasons and it promptly bit them

 

[K1052]

Speaking of which...

Covid-19: Two new cases in New Zealand, both arrivals from UK

There are two new cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, the Ministry of Health has confirmed.

www.rnz.co.nz

they allowed people in on compassionate reasons and it promptly bit them

Imported cases are a real hazard even for these countries. SK I think forcibly quarantines arrivals for 2 weeks.

 

[H T C]

Woman, 15 friends test positive for coronavirus after night out at Lynch’s

Erika Crisp and more than a dozen of her friends became ill with COVID-19 after visiting Lynch's Irish Pub earlier this month.

www.news4jax.com

well damn, who'd have thought that might happen

From the article:

Crisp, a 40-year-old health care worker from Jacksonville, said she’s been sick for eight days, and 15 of her friends have also tested positive for COVID-19.

Lynch’s learned some of its customers had tested positive for coronavirus after visiting the pub and the general manager opted to shut down voluntarily over the weekend for a deep cleaning.

Crisp said she and her friends had been careful with social distancing and had stayed indoors for months “doing everything the right way.”

“And then the first night we go out, Murphy’s Law, I guess,” Crisp said. “The only thing we have in common is that one night at that one bar.”

Crisp said she regrets going out to celebrate after months of quarantining.

“I think we were careless and we went out into a public place when we should not have. And we were not wearing masks. I think we had a whole 'Out of sight, out of mind' mentality. The state opens back up and said everybody was fine, so we took advantage of that,” Crisp said.

She said it's a lesson for everyone.

“We should be wearing masks. We should be social distancing,” Crisp said. “It was too soon to open everything back up.”

The 4 bits i highlighted are the most important ones, IMO: for a health care worker, of all professions, do disregard safety precautions in a pandemic context just because the restrictions are eased, as in still present but less prevalent ... is there a vaccine already that i'm not aware of?

AFAIK, there's this steroid drug but it only helps those more seriously affected so why WHY does a health care worker think she can behave the same way as pre-COVID-19?

It's only too soon to ease up restrictions if the R-0 value is too close to 1 or over 1: if it's quite a bit below 1 then, with the proper precautions, easing the restrictions is the correct move.

Conduct yourself as if EVERYBODY you come in contact with is infected unknowingly and without symptoms: this means wearing a mask, practicing social distancing and avoid sharing objects, and for as long as there's no drug / treatment / vaccine that can let people not get sick enough to be forced to go to the hospital for a prolonged period, which is what currently happens, and why it's so important to flatten the curve in order to avoid too many people in need of hospitalization @ the same time VS hospital's capacity.

 

[Red Squirrel]

There needs to be forced quarantines across the board now or even full on restrictions, it boggles my mind that people are still traveling and that countries aren't controlling it better. We will never kill off the virus if we continue to let it spread. I still say there needs to even be regional restrictions. "BuT maH RiGhTs!111one" I rather be denied travel than to be denied seeing my family or for business owners being denied to conduct business and other restrictions in place right now. Not being able to travel for a couple years (at most) is a pretty minor trade off to gain all the other freedoms back.

 

[Svnla]

If these new cases from oversea visitors keep popping up, countries will continue their border strict control/shut down for an extend period of time. My plan for an oversea trip by flight is not looking good right now. Will hold up the ticket purchasing for now.

 

[KMFJD]

There needs to be forced quarantines across the board now or even full on restrictions, it boggles my mind that people are still traveling and that countries aren't controlling it better. We will never kill off the virus if we continue to let it spread. I still say there needs to even be regional restrictions. "BuT maH RiGhTs!111one" I rather be denied travel than to be denied seeing my family or for business owners being denied to conduct business and other restrictions in place right now. Not being able to travel for a couple years (at most) is a pretty minor trade off to gain all the other freedoms back.

Toronto-area drivers, Americans being threatened in Ontario's cottage country

An Ontario cottage country mayor says drivers with American licence plates are being targeted and verbally assaulted by "vigilantes" who don't want them in their region during the COVID-19 pandemic.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

it's only going to get worse i think

 

[Svnla]

Beijing is shutting down all schools -

Beijing Shuts Schools to Stem Virus as Cases Spread Beyond City

Beijing has ordered all schools to close in an escalation of containment measures as it struggles to halt a new coronavirus outbreak which has already spread to neighboring provinces.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Beijing is shutting down all schools -

Beijing Shuts Schools to Stem Virus as Cases Spread Beyond City

Beijing has ordered all schools to close in an escalation of containment measures as it struggles to halt a new coronavirus outbreak which has already spread to neighboring provinces.

www.bloomberg.com

lol knowing what little information we get out of China it must be.... 20x worse than what we actually see it as in reporting.

 

[K1052]

WV recently tracked five sizable clusters to churches.

https://news.yahoo.com/west-virginia-sees-coronavirus-outbreaks-in-churches-200854506.html

God can see you if you're outside + distanced, at home, or praying over Zoom people. He's God.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

WV recently tracked five sizable clusters to churches.

https://news.yahoo.com/west-virginia-sees-coronavirus-outbreaks-in-churches-200854506.html

God can see you if you're outside + distanced, at home, or praying over Zoom people. He's God.

God NEEDS HIS MONEY!

How dare you stop him from receiving his money!

 

[Red Squirrel]

Honestly I kinda like the Zoom church services, don't need to dress up! Everyone is just in their normal clothes. Only been to a couple though, since I'm either working or I just sleep in sometimes especially when I'm only a few days after nights. Takes a few days to transition back to day mode. I was relunctant to install Zoom at first but then everyone started to use it including family and I kind of had no choice. I figure Android is already spying on me what's another spy app lol. Just didn't install it on my computer. I want to get it going with a RPI and a web cam and just have not gotten around to it yet and now it's almost pointless as stuff is slowly going back to normal.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Honestly I kinda like the Zoom church services, don't need to dress up! Everyone is just in their normal clothes. Only been to a couple though, since I'm either working or I just sleep in sometimes especially when I'm only a few days after nights. Takes a few days to transition back to day mode. I was relunctant to install Zoom at first but then everyone started to use it including family and I kind of had no choice. I figure Android is already spying on me what's another spy app lol. Just didn't install it on my computer. I want to get it going with a RPI and a web cam and just have not gotten around to it yet and now it's almost pointless as stuff is slowly going back to normal.

Yes, but how are they supposed to pass around God's basket to guilt-trip into you giving them money?

 

[K1052]

God NEEDS HIS MONEY!

How dare you stop him from receiving his money!

For some churches that's probably the case but the televangelists already blazed the trail they should be following.

I think the CDC guidance is insufficient. For instance it only recommends face coverings and even then with people doing things like singing close together in a building with minimal ventilation I think that's not enough either. Do it out in a field with distance or the drive in style services people were/are using if it really has to be in person. Indoor services should probably be a flat no right now.

 

[K1052]

If these new cases from oversea visitors keep popping up, countries will continue their border strict control/shut down for an extend period of time. My plan for an oversea trip by flight is not looking good right now. Will hold up the ticket purchasing for now.

I think Greece is reopening for tourism and already said no Americans. This will become commonplace until there is a vaccine and you'll have to prove that you've had it to many destination countries.

 

[KMFJD]

some numbing numbers out of Florida today

 

[Red Squirrel]

Yes, but how are they supposed to pass around God's basket to guilt-trip into you giving them money?

It's 2020. Etransfer.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It's 2020. Etransfer.

Yeah but the Basket is a physical object in front of you, with other peers potentially seeing you not putting any money in it.... Hence the social stigma of being seen as a cheap ass to God.

Not sure if there is a way to do that online unless they publicly shame people on the stream that didn't donate hehe

 

[Spacehead]

Contact tracing absolutely helps. The scandal is that we're too incompetent to do it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/least-50-cases-coronavirus-linked-215850608.html

In that article it said there were 500 people on that plane. After the guy was confirmed to be positive they contact trace the other 499 people on the plane & all the people at the hospital. Then you have to contact trace everyone those people come in contact with, etc.
How many "layers" deep do the tracers go?
Bottom line... don't we need a shit ton of tracers to be effective?

 

[manly]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/least-50-cases-coronavirus-linked-215850608.html

In that article it said there were 500 people on that plane. After the guy was confirmed to be positive they contact trace the other 499 people on the plane & all the people at the hospital. Then you have to contact trace everyone those people come in contact with, etc.
How many "layers" deep do the tracers go?
Bottom line... don't we need a shit ton of tracers to be effective?

Yes, you would need a small army of people to do meaningful contact tracing. Many states have little expertise at this, while others like Washington and California capitulated when the virus started to spread more quickly than their contact tracers could deal with. I'm not seeing that any funding was appropriated for contact tracing in the CARES Act, so IMO that would fall under government "incompetence," as K1052 referenced.

 

[Caveman]

My reply was in a global sense: not focusing on any particular country.

There's a problem with this calculation: you divided the deaths by 365 when you should have divided by the number of elapsed days since the 1st COVID-19 death until now.

Not sure who the previous statement was for but if you take the worst year for flu deaths (which someone said was 2017/18 at 80k, that is 0.2% of the population. If you divide 80k by 365 days, then ~220 people died of the flue each day in that year on average. I've seen some recent data lower than that over the past few weeks (perhaps is was related to an update issue on the "worldometers" website... At any rate, 220 is the number I remember not because I think C19 is "as harmless as the flu", but when the numbers get that low at 220/day then we are seeing CFR on par with the flu which nobody gets the least bit worried about.

Archived Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC

Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC

www.cdc.gov

.
Not sure where you're seeing 80k confirmed influenza deaths. The CDC estimates flu deaths off of a smaller number of confirmed cases. It doesn't really report it any other way. (That link is for 17-18, as the 18-19 season is estimated to be only 30-40k deaths)

And if you die from a cormorbidity and have covid, you died from covid. It's the most reasonable way to report covid deaths. If you weren't going to die from some condition and then got covid and died from covid, seems like it should be a covid death.

---
The lockdowns started lifting in mid-May, but cases only started rising a lot in the last week or so as reopenings were fully realized and people started to give up on some of the behaviors keeping the spread down. Don't know why you're arguing that reopenings should be perfectly correlated with incidence and/or death.

As for the herd immunity idea: I don't think that is supported by any data. Please feel free to post something in support of the claim.

I can't remember where I got the 80k number but may have been here: 80k flu

If you have a heart condition and die from Covid, I'm not sure it makes sense to count it as a Covid death (since people without heart conditions would NOT die of Covid). If you get Covid and recover and then die from something else (like a stroke), it doesn't seem reasonable to consider that a Covid death either.

If everyone is returning to business as usual and the death rates don't rise then it would seems some other variable is at play to keep it in check. I have zero data to support any herd immunity claim. It doesn't seem logical to make ANY claim one way or another unless an entire state was tested 100% or something. Until that happens, there's not much to say regarding herd immunity per se.

So you are talking about case fatality rate? I agree, we still have no idea.

In terms of total deaths? The US has absolutely eclipsed the flu; it isn't even close. The low CFR is one of the main reasons why this has killed over 120,000 Americans—many people assume they have a 99% survival rate, which leads to reckless behavior that endangers not only themselves, but the millions of high-risk individuals in the country.

Antibody studies in late April showed that approximately 15% of New York (the hardest hit state) had immunity against the virus. Even if we assume that number has doubled since then (btw, the hospitalization data does not corroborate this), New York would have 30% of the population immune to covid-19. This is still nowhere near the 70% required to actually create effective herd immunity. And now that New York's confirmed cases and hospitalizations have slowed dramatically, it looks like they will never achieve herd immunity, despite being the hardest hit state.

I agree. In Caveman's original post, he averaged total flu deaths over 365 days. I was trying to show that, even when averaged over 365 days, covid-19 deaths still far outpace flu deaths.

In my mind, "eclipse" is 10X or 100X, not 2-4X. There are some indications C19 was here as far back as late November last year so we not on track for 10-100X the flu. Agreed that many think they have a 99% survival rate and that's a wrong way to look at it. It's more a case of you could be in the select demographic for which the disease is fatal. Lot's of studies trying to show correlation with few conclusions other than men more likely to get it and die from it as well as older folks.

Agreed that the NY studies you are eluding to (if the ones I'm remembering) do indicate no herd immunity yet but that data had a bunch of assumptions with it as well, IIR. The other part of this is whether the virus even exists now as it did or are we seeing mutations that make it last longer (and less lethal)?

 

[Brainonska511]

If you have a heart condition and die from Covid, I'm not sure it makes sense to count it as a Covid death (since people without heart conditions would NOT die of Covid). If you get Covid and recover and then die from something else (like a stroke), it doesn't seem reasonable to consider that a Covid death either.

If that underlying condition wasn't going to kill you in the next week or two, it is very reasonable to say that the cause was COVID. Many people live for years with underlying comorbidities, especially when properly managed.

I don't think people are counting recovered people dying from a stroke as a COVID death, unless it appears to be related to some of the vascular effects that are being observed in some patients.

 

[shortylickens]

Umm, NO.
People without heart conditions ARE dying from COVID.
what the hell are you thinking?

 

[CZroe]

Umm, NO.
People without heart conditions ARE dying from COVID.
what the hell are you thinking?

You seem to have misinterpreted him. He's talking about the deaths attributable to COVID19 with comorbidities. Some feel these don't belong in official numbers and he's explaining why many do belong.

 

[manly]

Wow, what cave did this old timer guy (not you) literally emerge out of and somehow present a bunch of whack-a-doo "data"?

You seem to have misinterpreted him. He's talking about the deaths attributable to COVID19 with comorbidities. Some feel these don't belong in official numbers and he's explaining why many do belong.

While there are no doubt some victims who were already on death's door, many presumably would have lived a while longer in their unhealthy conditions if Covid-19 hadn't come along. Obviously we can't prove that scientifically but the "excess deaths" over historical averages speak for themselves.

 

[H T C]

Not sure who the previous statement was for but if you take the worst year for flu deaths (which someone said was 2017/18 at 80k, that is 0.2% of the population. If you divide 80k by 365 days, then ~220 people died of the flue each day in that year on average. I've seen some recent data lower than that over the past few weeks (perhaps is was related to an update issue on the "worldometers" website... At any rate, 220 is the number I remember not because I think C19 is "as harmless as the flu", but when the numbers get that low at 220/day then we are seeing CFR on par with the flu which nobody gets the least bit worried about.

I think you misunderstood: the problem with your numbers isn't with the flu part but rather COVID-19 part.

Why? Because you're dividing the COVID-19 numbers by 365 to get your average daily numbers when in hasn't even been six months since the 1st COVID-19 fatality, and that's what's skewing your comparison.