Enough with the stupid posts Pro-Jo.
Just because Obama has some people who are rich that donate to him does not mean that all of his donors are. As we've gone over in previous threads, nearly half of the contributions Obama has gotten are less than $200... the typical small donor. Only 20 something percent have been more than $2,300. So yes, far more of his donors are small time donors than are big ones.
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Really, the election already took place?
No, you claimed that Obama had no way of getting the electoral votes he needed until I pointed out to you that by your own map you had him winning. Oops!
Right on.
I keep saying that the Dems and Obama need a simple message and act SIMPLY to get through to the majority of people. Everyone on P&N just ignores replies like yours and mine because they don't believe in the pragmatic approach outside their ideals.
Obama will lose if he keeps going down the Kerry route of long, drawn out, complicated arguments.
Kerry got shafted by the Swiftboat attacks, but his response to it was equally numbing. I will never forget during the debates Kerry saying..
'This administration this, this administration that, Bush this, Bush that' and all of us in the room (probably 50-60% independents) yelling at the screen 'TELL US WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO DO!' you freaking idiot!
I am starting to get the same feeling now, and unless Obama gets tough he will have the potential to lose.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
- 20
- 81
Where did I predict Obama will win? I'm highly skeptical. My comments were directed to the claim that he is a 'weak candidate'. If the comment was "I think Obama will lose" I wouldn't have had anything to say. I think he's a pretty strong candidate, and may still lose.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
- 20
- 81
This bullshit again?
http://www.opensecrets.org/pre...nordems.php?cycle=2008
48% of BO's donors give $200 or less vs 28% for McCain.
26% of BO's donors give $2300 or more vs 53% for McCain.
5% of BO's donors give $4600 vs 16% for McCain.
Yes, shocking, some of Obama's money comes from rich people. What's more amazing? Those people are donating to a candidate who will likely raise their taxes because they think he's better for the country. That's called putting your money where your mouth is.
OBAMA is polling behind "Generic Democrat" because McCain has a reputation as not being "generic republican"
Sure, this reputation is false now and we'll see if Obama can convice Americans of it. But as of now, Obama still has the upper hand. We'll see if his more dignified and professional campaign works for him. In many ways, people considered the Hillary - Obama race to be close because they would not go into the details. Obama had it locked up in February in essence. HE does not have this election locked up but his moves, specifically focusing on MANY states and using GET OUT THE VOTE, are commendable. He is stretching the map right now and after the convention he can start consolidating. HRC had an advantage in OHIO and FLORIDA but she had no chances in other states. Obama's GOTV will also help down ticket dems.
Sure, this reputation is false now and we'll see if Obama can convice Americans of it. But as of now, Obama still has the upper hand. We'll see if his more dignified and professional campaign works for him. In many ways, people considered the Hillary - Obama race to be close because they would not go into the details. Obama had it locked up in February in essence. HE does not have this election locked up but his moves, specifically focusing on MANY states and using GET OUT THE VOTE, are commendable. He is stretching the map right now and after the convention he can start consolidating. HRC had an advantage in OHIO and FLORIDA but she had no chances in other states. Obama's GOTV will also help down ticket dems.
Hey, PJ -- Sorry to burst your bubble, but your poll excludes states they regard as "toss ups." As of today, their complete poll, including toss ups, shows Obama up by 50 electoral votes.
Actually, I'm not sorry at all. A lot will happen between now and November to bounce various polls around so your post is relatively meaningless.
What I do know is, this nation will be far worse off with a McShame-ful continuation of the policies of your Traitor in Chief's criminal administration.
jonks
Lifer
- Feb 7, 2005
- 13,918
- 20
- 81
uh, no. The king of useless polls has been flat since march.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107...-General-Election.aspx
Unsurprising but ProfJohn is once again making shallow claims. there is a surge nationally with McCain, and Obama's negatives are shooting up. But Obama's gameplan is good.
Which kerry states can he lose? I don't think Penn will turn. Some are saying Mich or Minn. I think Obama can consolidate those as well. Mich is the most troublesome according to some analysts because he didn't campaign there. I think NH is McCain's best bet.
Which bush states can Obama win? Iowa and NM look to be trending obama. VA and NC are in play, ND as well. Obama has lost his lead in COlorado but it's still competitive and McCain made a massive blunder there. Ohio and Florida are also good shots. And Obama thinks he has a chance in Georgia as well.
Just like with the senate races, the battle is on the Republicans turf, which is a good thing. McCain did not open CA, NJ is slipping away, washington and oregon are often erratic but they most likely won't be in play. Again, NH seems like his best shot with MI and Minn close behind. MI and Minn i doubt will turn in this season though.
Colorado and VA might be the new ohio/florida.
Which kerry states can he lose? I don't think Penn will turn. Some are saying Mich or Minn. I think Obama can consolidate those as well. Mich is the most troublesome according to some analysts because he didn't campaign there. I think NH is McCain's best bet.
Which bush states can Obama win? Iowa and NM look to be trending obama. VA and NC are in play, ND as well. Obama has lost his lead in COlorado but it's still competitive and McCain made a massive blunder there. Ohio and Florida are also good shots. And Obama thinks he has a chance in Georgia as well.
Just like with the senate races, the battle is on the Republicans turf, which is a good thing. McCain did not open CA, NJ is slipping away, washington and oregon are often erratic but they most likely won't be in play. Again, NH seems like his best shot with MI and Minn close behind. MI and Minn i doubt will turn in this season though.
Colorado and VA might be the new ohio/florida.
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 173
- 106
McCain has high "Favorable ratings (51% favorable vs 35% unfavorable) so he can go negative if he wants. Personally, I don't think we've seen him do anything *dirty* like he could. But McCain could afford to do that because his favorables are so high - he can *spend* some. I've heard it said Hillary really couldn't do that in the primary because of her high unfavorable rating.
But IMO that's not what's going on here. It is attributable to some other developments:
1. The Russia/Georgia thing has reminded people of the threads we may face, and how leadership from the CIC is important:
Link
2. The *experience gap* is showing up:
Link
McCain literally trounces Obama in these regards.
3. McCain doing better with polls on the economy and energy (I saw one where McCain is now leading on the conomy, but can't find it again. Plus looks more like a mixed bag anyway) It looks as if "Drill Here, Drill Now" has helped McCain hit a gusher
I can't help but think Nancy Pelosi is hurting Obama there. Nor do I think his "nuanced" performance at Saddleback did him any good.
Things are simply not trending well for Obama over the past several weeks. But it is early, and the real race starts after Labor Day (Begining of Sept.)
Fern
So you figured it would be a good idea for Bush to be President instead? Yeah, you guys are definitely the model voters America needs more of :roll: You're clearly trying to play yourself off as some kind of political thinker, so why were you ignoring what Kerry was saying about the guy who ended up becoming President again?
There are things I don't like about Obama, just like there are things I didn't like about Kerry, but it's not a one man race...it's really dumb to look at an individual candidate by themselves. Getting people to do that in 2004 with Kerry was the true genius of the Republican strategy. Bush was a terrible President, but by getting people to only focus on Kerry, it became a race Bush could win just because he was the only other candidate. And, just like then, the Republicans have a terrible candidate...so they pull out the old "Obama vs Nobody" strategy and hope that nobody notices that anything but a vote for Obama is a vote for McCain.
OrByte
Diamond Member
- Jul 21, 2000
- 9,302
- 144
- 106
Actually, I think its more like Obama vs the Baby killing, Undercover Muslim extremist, Anti-american hate monger, terrorist loving, socialist/marxist/whatever is bad-ist Barrack Huessin Obama.
that's what negative campaigning has gotten us so far. ain't it grand!?
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 173
- 106
Hmm.. I don't think that they are that far off.
The Dems seem to demonstrate a fairly consistent pattern - criticize your opponent, but then get all nuanced about what YOU WOULD DO. And IMO, they're still playing this to a large extent like they're running against Bush; might fire up the base but I'm not sure how it plays to those indies and others who pay a whole 10 mintues of time to an election before yanking the lever. Have you ever seen just how many people don't make up their minds until they get behind the curtain? Jeez, it's ridiculous. And I think more poeple do that than confess to it. When I stand inline at the polling station I'm amazed at how many take their 10 or 15 minutes to vote. I'm done and out of there before the worker finishes pulling the curtain shut behind me.
Yes, of course the Repubs are trying to make about just Obama vs McCain. And IMO the MSM is an unwitting accomplice in this. But I think it unfair to not recognize that the Dems pursue this too. When Obamania was running high, they sure weren't bashful about hitching their wagon to him.
It's long been said that this election in his to lose. That means everybody is looking at him, and if he can't close the deal the voters default to McCain. And those indy and swing voters are notorious for going with their gut.
Nobody is saying it's how it should be, But I think we are slow here sometimes to recognize how it really is (even if we don't approve of it and can't fathom it ourselves).
I think we should try harder to put ourselves in the shoes of those (mostly dis-interested) voters who have such a big influence on our elections. IMO, people like us who are strongly intertested in politics are only campaign targets mostly in the primary, now they move the focus to those other voters.
Fern
On a related note, I just checked the numbers and Obama is going to have a simply colossal fiscal advantage after the conventions. He has been saving up money in anticipation and apparently has about $66 million in the bank right now so there's a chance he will have more just in the bank after the conventions then McCain will have total to work with. Add onto that the fact that Obama is raising more then $50 million a month right now (a figure I could see increasing as we get close to the election) and I imagine McCain is going to get buried under a pile of ads.
Fingolfin269
Lifer
- Feb 28, 2003
- 17,948
- 31
- 91
No I'm not implying that. I'm implying that the conversation on here is exactly the same. "There is no way person A will beat person B", "I hope you all eat crow", etc. etc. It's just funny to me how I feel like I just time warped to 4 years ago. Too bad I didn't get all of my hair back.
Is he going to pay a "windfall profits" tax on all that money
? How much money does 1 person or company need to make anyway right?These new polls give me hope for 4 years of gridlock. I want it just like the 90s gridlock gridlock and more gridlock. If something does pass it will need to be a compromise. Much better than having 1 party having a rubber stamp to do what it pleases.
[ProfJohn] OMGZ! McCain was leading by 5 points this morning (zogby poll) then Obama took a 3 point lead! (NBC poll)
This means that by the end of next week Obama will be leading by 500 points! McCain dropped 8 points in a matter of hours! THe end is near! -
[/ProfJohn Analysis]
This means that by the end of next week Obama will be leading by 500 points! McCain dropped 8 points in a matter of hours! THe end is near! -
[/ProfJohn Analysis]
RY62
Senior member
- Mar 13, 2005
- 864
- 98
- 91
It's surprising that NBC would admit results that close. Obama could be down by 20 and they'd still be trying to spin it with him winning.
Interesting notes from that NBC poll...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26314990/
I wonder why they're polling how Clinton would fare?
sportage
Lifer
- Feb 1, 2008
- 11,493
- 3,159
- 136
I will be looking at the so called new young voters.
These voters were suppose to hand Kerry the election in 2004.
Now they are suppose to do the deciding in 2008.
So far going by past history, they are not doing their job.
Will they THIS time? Or will it be another 2004?
These voters were suppose to hand Kerry the election in 2004.
Now they are suppose to do the deciding in 2008.
So far going by past history, they are not doing their job.
Will they THIS time? Or will it be another 2004?
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