McCain moves into the lead on the realclearpolitics electoral college board

[ProfJohn]

link

This change must have just happened because I looked at the map today and Obama had a lead.

The race is still very close, but it has been moving McCain's direction slowly for a while now. The event last weekend has certainly helped McCain out as well.

This is going to be a very close election and we may be in for another long night watching TV returns.

 

[ProfJohn]

Looking at the polls it seems that they switched Indiana from Obama to McCain based on a poll that comes out tomorrow.

 

[Brainonska511]

Big deal. The only poll that really matters is the one that's taken on the first Tuesday of November.

 

[jpeyton]

After the convention, we'll see what a 2-to-1 spending advantage does for Obama. He pulled in $50 million in June, $50 million in July, and he'll be pulling in $50 million a month from now til November.

 

[nageov3t]

and all it took was Obama going on vacation for a week? I'd imagine this one time lead will be a distant memory by October.

 

[senseamp]

Obama is a weak candidate. You can only demagogue your way out of everything for so long before people take notice.

 

[nageov3t]

I'm surprised Obama's leading by 10 in NJ... I always thought of this state as fairly racist.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
After the convention, we'll see what a 2-to-1 spending advantage does for Obama. He pulled in $50 million in June, $50 million in July, and he'll be pulling in $50 million a month from now til November.

Are you sure about that???

Right now McCain and Obama are virtually tied when you include RNC and DNC money.
Sept 4 McCain gets $84 million to spend over the last two months of the campaign.

So Obama has to continue to raise $40 million a month just to keep up with the money McCain gets. Plus let's not forget that with McCain no longer taking funds for his own campaign that Republicans will instead send that money to the RNC or local candidates to help them.

link
Great story that goes into detail about the money race. It is a lot close than anyone thinks it would be.

 

[Stoneburner]

There is definitely a shift but the fundmentals favor Obama in that he's still taking the battle to 2004 Bush states. Minn and Mich and NH are McCain's best pickup opportunities but they don't compare to Iowa, Col, Indiana, Virgnia, NM, NEvada, and others. Not to mention, Obama is still fairly close in FL and especially Ohio. I hate to say it, but a Hillary VP pick could get him one or both of those states and that's the end game.

There are other things that need to be considered. 1. Obama is investing more in get out the vote. This usually gives you a few percentage extra on voting day. 2. Polling methods may be too conservative. 3. A 4 -6 point win for Obama would be 300 plus electoral votes.

 

[brencat]

Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm surprised Obama's leading by 10 in NJ... I always thought of this state as fairly racist.

Except for college years, I've lived in NJ my entire life. Never once did 'racist' ever come to mind as discriptive of its residents.

I am surprised too at the lead. But the fact is, many of the rebels and independents that led the "Florio-free in '93" campaign and who would have supported a centrist like McCain have since fled the state due to ever rising cost of living, property taxes, and gov't corruption. They've just flat out had it. So we're left with mostly guilt-ridden Obama supporting rich people who pay the property taxes happily along with the handout capitals of Newark and Camden who vote Dem always. The retirees are leaving. Soon there won't be any rich people left either. And the state will be as blue (and poor) as ever.

 

[winnar111]

?He?s got to be very concerned by the [neck-and-neck] polls and by what happened at Saddleback,? added Nader, referring to the recent candidates forum hosted by evangelist Rick Warren. ?He got beat in Saddleback?big time.?

 

[winnar111]

Originally posted by: brencat

Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm surprised Obama's leading by 10 in NJ... I always thought of this state as fairly racist.

Except for college years, I've lived in NJ my entire life. Never once did 'racist' ever come to mind as discriptive of its residents.

I am surprised too at the lead. But the fact is, many of the rebels and independents that led the "Florio-free in '93" campaign and who would have supported a centrist like McCain have since fled the state due to ever rising cost of living, property taxes, and gov't corruption. They've just flat out had it. So we're left with mostly guilt-ridden Obama supporting rich people who pay the property taxes happily along with the handout capitals of Newark and Camden who vote Dem always. The retirees are leaving. Soon there won't be any rich people left either. And the state will be as blue (and poor) as ever.

This.

I lived (for 4 years) in a town in Central NJ, where many of the NYC commuters live. Absolutely absurd property tax rates have driven many people out. We got a hike in the sales tax rate to get property tax relief from the Democrats in Trenton which never came.

Most families live here until their kids graduate high school and then leave ASAP. Makes sense, rather than paying $10k+ property tax rates on a ~$100k combined income.

 

[OrByte]

Too bad for McCain he is peaking as a result of negative attacks on BHO.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: brencat

Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm surprised Obama's leading by 10 in NJ... I always thought of this state as fairly racist.

Except for college years, I've lived in NJ my entire life. Never once did 'racist' ever come to mind as discriptive of its residents.

come up to the old school Irish/Italian neighborhoods in north jersey sometime although Obama does support the mob...

 

[nageov3t]

dp

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: OrByte
Too bad for McCain he is peaking as a result of negative attacks on BHO.

the sad fact is, it seems to be working. he's only able to get press coverage by attacking the press's favorite subject, Obama.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
After the convention, we'll see what a 2-to-1 spending advantage does for Obama. He pulled in $50 million in June, $50 million in July, and he'll be pulling in $50 million a month from now til November.

speaking of RCP, interesting reading... http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs...er-than-you-think.aspx

it doesn't make the case for McCain, but it helps provide some perspective.

 

[Moonbeam]

Obama will be swiftboated and lucky if he can survive. Most Americans aren't ready to vote for a communist black radical Muslim.

 

[GenHoth]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Obama will be swiftboated and lucky if he can survive. Most Americans aren't ready to vote for a communist black radical Muslim.

You set of my weird-ometer so often I'm never sure if its that or the sarcasm meter that is going haywire.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Looking at the polls it seems that they switched Indiana from Obama to McCain based on a poll that comes out tomorrow.

I've had Indiana pegged Re[ublican all along.

Dave's Electoral Map

I don't see an Electoral College way Obama can win.

 

[dahunan]

If McCain wins then America is dumber than they were when they voted for bushs' 2nd term..

 

[First]

^ No, you would have had to have been ignorant or mentally challenged in some way to have voted Bush into office in 04. McCain actually has a good record of reaching across the aisle and is a wonderful patriot, with his primary shortcoming being his complete failure to grasp reality in Iraq (which is a biggie, I agree). McCain at least would be halfway decent, as would Obama possibly (too little experience to know either way though). Bush is on a whole other level of incompetence and failure, doesn't sniff these two guys.

 

[Siddhartha]

CNN's Electoral Map

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT

 

[PokerGuy]

The fact that McCain is even close at this point is a bad indicator for Obama. He's had pretty much every factor possible set up to favor him. The media loves BHO, I've seen a couple of studies now showing he's getting 2-1 media coverage time over McCain. Heck, McCain is not even much liked in republican circles... And yet, Obama is not ahead in the national polls by 15-20 poins, it's actually a pretty close race. It's too early to tell, but if this one gets away, the dems will have let the easiest presidential election ever slip away.

 

[GTKeeper]

I will go out and just say it.

If Obama loses this election, he doesn't deserve to be president, period.

I am sorry if people idealize him and the presidential position too much. I think you need a sense of cunning to be an effective leader.

Obama would do very well to take a page out of Clinton's book. They didn't call him Slick Willy for nothing. The republicans hate BC so much because he beat them AT THEIR OWN GAME.

I have said many times that for Obama to win he just needs to a few simple negative ads.

Add One:

Is McCain losing his mind??
1) Can't tell the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite
2) Thinks communist Chechoslovakia still exists
3) Was for his own immigration bill, now against it

Add Two:

Do you want McCain to lead this country and ....
1) Keep your children serving in Iraq for the next 100 years
2) Pretend to keep touch with the common people while wearing 500 dollar shoes and living a lavish lifestyle


Simple and to the point, and you don't have to be smart to realize that I just painted the picture of a nut job.