McCain moves into the lead on the realclearpolitics electoral college board

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brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,170
3
76
Originally posted by: quest55720
These new polls give me hope for 4 years of gridlock. I want it just like the 90s gridlock gridlock and more gridlock. If something does pass it will need to be a compromise. Much better than having 1 party having a rubber stamp to do what it pleases.

Agree 100%. Divided gov't FTW.

Best post of the night :thumbsup:
 

jman19

Lifer
Nov 3, 2000
11,220
654
126
Originally posted by: RY62
Originally posted by: Stoneburner
[ProfJohn] OMGZ! McCain was leading by 5 points this morning (zogby poll) then Obama took a 3 point lead! (NBC poll)

This means that by the end of next week Obama will be leading by 500 points! McCain dropped 8 points in a matter of hours! THe end is near! -

[/ProfJohn Analysis]

It's surprising that NBC would admit results that close. Obama could be down by 20 and they'd still be trying to spin it with him winning.

Interesting notes from that NBC poll...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26314990/

Overall, Obama holds a three-point lead over McCain, 45-42 percent, which is within the survey?s margin of error. That?s down from Obama?s six-point advantage last month, 47-41 percent.

...there are still doubts about Obama?s ability to be commander-in-chief. In the poll, 50 percent say they have confidence in McCain in that position. But just 39 percent say the same of the Illinois senator.

It?s also worth noting that while Obama leads McCain by three points in the poll, Clinton edges the Republican by six points in a hypothetical match up, 49 to 43 percent. But she remains a polarizing figure: 49 percent say they don?t want to see her as president someday, and 42 percent view her favorably versus 41 percent who see her in a negative light.

I wonder why they're polling how Clinton would fare? :)

I dunno, but since she isn't being attacked now are you surprised?
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Looking at the polls it seems that they switched Indiana from Obama to McCain based on a poll that comes out tomorrow.

I've had Indiana pegged Re[ublican all along.

Dave's Electoral Map

I don't see an Electoral College way Obama can win.

You have Hawaii going for McCain? :confused:

Hey that was my first draft.

I corrected it and McCain still easily wins.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,333
136
Originally posted by: Corbett
Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm surprised Obama's leading by 10 in NJ... I always thought of this state as fairly racist.

haha, Priceless!

It was about as good as brencat's comment that the state with the 2nd highest per capita income in the US is "poor."
Partisan hacks can make themselves believe anything.

Loki is not an Obama supporter BTW
 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,491
0
76
Originally posted by: sportage
I will be looking at the so called new young voters.
These voters were suppose to hand Kerry the election in 2004.
Now they are suppose to do the deciding in 2008.
So far going by past history, they are not doing their job.
Will they THIS time? Or will it be another 2004?

two things to consider

1) I think that polling models generally are very conservative with young voters. So if there is an actual uptick in young voters, obama has an advantage

2) Kerry's ground game was non existent for the most part. Obama is registering new people and will be pushing them to the polls in november. This should provide a slight uptick. With a close election, I think this favors Obama. Just like in 2004, a close election favored bush and his ground game in states like ohio and florida. MCCain has an impressive ground game in florida but nowhere else. Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Indiana.... let's see what McCain's lack of a push there does.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,586
50,771
136
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Looking at the polls it seems that they switched Indiana from Obama to McCain based on a poll that comes out tomorrow.

I've had Indiana pegged Re[ublican all along.

Dave's Electoral Map

I don't see an Electoral College way Obama can win.

You have Hawaii going for McCain? :confused:

Hey that was my first draft.

I corrected it and McCain still easily wins.

You corrected it and then realized that when you changed Hawaii over to Obama, that Obama won the election. So... you picked some other state and changed it to red on the fly with no explanation so you could keep up your narrative. That's really sad.

EDIT: And you did it by changing New Mexico to McCain despite the fact that Obama is up by almost 10 points in that state. Your map is ridiculous.
 

nageov3t

Lifer
Feb 18, 2004
42,808
83
91
Originally posted by: Corbett
Originally posted by: loki8481
I'm surprised Obama's leading by 10 in NJ... I always thought of this state as fairly racist.

haha, Priceless!

we're not Alabama or anything, but you'd be surprised.

edit: of course, I might have a horribly skewed perspective, I grew up in the area where the Italians/Irish fled to after the Newark riots. if you ever saw that episode of the Sopranos where Meadow brings home her black boyfriend, I know a lot of families here that'd have the exact same reaction as Tony did.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"Yet perhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama?s inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton?s supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else." Link


According to FiveThirtyEight, that number has historically been 10% and they thought Obama needed to bring that number down to 15% or so. This could conceivably affect a close state like Ohio, where her erosion of his Democratic base there might be enough to offset increased African American turnout and tip the state to McLame. Link
 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
If by ""McCain moves into the lead on the realclearpolitics electoral college board"" you mean:

Obama/Biden: 364
McCain/Palin: 174

Then yes, McCain/Palin is leading by negative 190 electoral votes.
 

AstroManLuca

Lifer
Jun 24, 2004
15,628
5
81
Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
If by ""McCain moves into the lead on the realclearpolitics electoral college board"" you mean:

Obama/Biden: 364
McCain/Palin: 174

Then yes, McCain/Palin is leading by negative 190 electoral votes.

hey champ, take a look at the OP date
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
Originally posted by: eskimospy
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Looking at the polls it seems that they switched Indiana from Obama to McCain based on a poll that comes out tomorrow.

I've had Indiana pegged Re[ublican all along.

Dave's Electoral Map

I don't see an Electoral College way Obama can win.

You have Hawaii going for McCain? :confused:

Hey that was my first draft.

I corrected it and McCain still easily wins.

You corrected it and then realized that when you changed Hawaii over to Obama, that Obama won the election. So... you picked some other state and changed it to red on the fly with no explanation so you could keep up your narrative. That's really sad.

EDIT: And you did it by changing New Mexico to McCain despite the fact that Obama is up by almost 10 points in that state. Your map is ridiculous.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, its heartening to see that Dave is still running on a map dated 8/3/2008.

Hate to tell you Dave, some things have happened between then and now. GWB&co
have since screwed the pooch and fucked the cash cow. Your lack of saying wow, wow wow, is why your predictions don't describe now and now.
 

heyheybooboo

Diamond Member
Jun 29, 2007
6,278
0
0
Originally posted by: AstroManLuca
Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
If by ""McCain moves into the lead on the realclearpolitics electoral college board"" you mean:

Obama/Biden: 364
McCain/Palin: 174

Then yes, McCain/Palin is leading by negative 190 electoral votes.

hey champ, take a look at the OP date

Yikes! :p

Originally posted by: GenHoth
I love necromancers, but man I hate thread necromancy.

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Remember, according to Dave this election is in the bag for McCain.

There once was a guy named Dave
Who kept a dead girl in a cave
She had but one tit
And tasted like shit
But think of the money he saved!
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,377
126
Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
Originally posted by: AstroManLuca
Originally posted by: heyheybooboo
If by ""McCain moves into the lead on the realclearpolitics electoral college board"" you mean:

Obama/Biden: 364
McCain/Palin: 174

Then yes, McCain/Palin is leading by negative 190 electoral votes.

hey champ, take a look at the OP date

Yikes! :p

Originally posted by: GenHoth
I love necromancers, but man I hate thread necromancy.

Originally posted by: eskimospy
Remember, according to Dave this election is in the bag for McCain.

There once was a guy named Dave
Who kept a dead girl in a cave
She had but one tit
And tasted like shit
But think of the money he saved!

lulz :) gotcha!! :laugh:
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,529
3
0
This over whelming defeat should have happened to Bush, he's so much more deserving of it than McCain is.