May 6th Primaries Thread

[Robor]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Robor

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Look at the country by county map via Washington Post link
Obama's second best county is 67/33

But Lake County is 75/25.

There are going to be a lot of people looking at these results very closely.
Wouldn't it be great to watch the Democrats accuse each of the 'stealing' an election...

You're trying too hard, PJ.

Lake is 65/35 @ 56%.

Link says 75/25.

But you may be right, 65/35 is believable.

I'm going off of here: Link (hover over Lake County)

One more F5 and I'm really off to bed now though.

 

[UberNeuman]

Originally posted by: senseamp
I think Obama will likely be the eventual nominee, but hopefully Hillary will rough him up some for the general election, because he is going to be a bad president, especially for the Democratic party.
He is going to be like Jesse Jackson meets Jimmy Carter, and undo all the momentum the Democrats are having. It's better to have McCain checked by a Democrat Congress for 4 years and try with a better candidate later.

Nice that you have a future machine to see "what he may do"...

Nice as well you avoided my earlier question to you concerning as to what would happen if Mr. Obama became the President of the U.S.A...............

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: ja1484

Originally posted by: ja1484
If you look at CNN's by-county spread here, most of the rural counties are 100% in, where Clinton has her strongest showings. Conversely, the urban areas, where Obama has his strongholds, are mostly only 50-75% in. These areas heavily favor Obama percentage-wise and have very large populations.

Most of Clinton's vote is already in, Obama's only stands to grow at this point. It's unlikely, but he could still carry the state, and if he does lose it'll be by a razor margin.

I just wanted to point out that I semi-called this quite a while ago.

That's all.


Also:

RCP is saying absentee ballots may not be counted tonight, meaning might have to wait til tomorrow for results:

http://time-blog.com/real_clea...nc_primary_thread.html

FWIW, if Billary takes Indiana by 1%, they can have it, don't bother recounting. That would be about as hollow as a victory can get.

While we're blowing our own horns:

Originally posted by: Vic 05/06/2008 03:52 PM PDT edit: in this thread - Text
We'll know in a little over an hour. My bets are Obama landslide in NC and a too-close-to-call in IN.

I agree with you though. At this point and this close, it doesn't matter whether or not Hillary wins IN or not. She has nothing to gain at this point and everything to lose. What does matter is that the east coast went to bed an hour ago without seeing a Hillary victory called.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Robor

Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Update, estimate Obama loses by 0.0112%

0042.jpg

Noooooooooooooo! You jinxed him!

I'm off to bed too. Will F5 in the morning. G'nite all. 'Cept you sense. I hope you wet your bed.

There's a second assumption in my model that I didn't think would matter because I didn't imagine it would be this close.

The little patch of white on the eastern border:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...ries/results/state/#IN
...is Union County, population 7,349. It's at 0% reporting so I can't extrapolate without finding some way to divide by zero.

Fayete County, to the west of it, has over three times the population and Sen. Clinton netted 1705 votes there. I arbitrarily picked 2,000 as a best/worst-case scenario. Feel free to adjust in your own head.

 

[JSt0rm]

sans just keep your mind open until the election then vote for MC Cain if you must.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: UberNeuman

Originally posted by: senseamp
I think Obama will likely be the eventual nominee, but hopefully Hillary will rough him up some for the general election, because he is going to be a bad president, especially for the Democratic party.
He is going to be like Jesse Jackson meets Jimmy Carter, and undo all the momentum the Democrats are having. It's better to have McCain checked by a Democrat Congress for 4 years and try with a better candidate later.

Nice that you have a future machine to see "what he may do"...

Nice as well you avoided my earlier question to you concerning as to what would happen if Mr. Obama became the President of the U.S.A...............

I don't have a future machine, that is exactly the point. If he actually stood for something aside from ephemeral notions that make for great speeches, I would at least be able to judge him on his positions. But as it stands, I'll take gridlock with McCain over Obama's brown bag of uncertainty.

 

[UberNeuman]

Again, senseamp

So, you feel that if, and if, Obama became President, he'd want to enslave whitey?

 

[b0mbrman]

Looks like Hillary's going to win:

There are still 7,000 absentee ballots to count, but all of Gary results are in.

http://nwitimes.com/blogs/election/?p=55

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
I think Obama will likely be the eventual nominee, but hopefully Hillary will rough him up some for the general election, because he is going to be a bad president, especially for the Democratic party.
He is going to be like Jesse Jackson meets Jimmy Carter, and undo all the momentum the Democrats are having. It's better to have McCain checked by a Democrat Congress for 4 years and try with a better candidate later.

I disagree with you that he will be a bad President. However, that's another issue.

What you need to keep in mind is that, once the Dems win the White House, their momentum will be undone regardless of who is the nominee. That's how this works. Instead of everyone blaming Bush for everything, they'll switch to blaming Obama for everything. And they would have done the same if Hillary had won. Welcome to American politics. We've taken liberal democracy to its highest art form. Where for thousands of years it was death for any of the people to speak ill of the king, now we the people elect a king purely for the purpose of speaking ill of him.

 

[Carmen813]

MSNBC is calling it for clinton, won by ~22k votes.

 

[nageov3t]

51:49

it's over for Hillary. this was her chance to prove that the Wright thing hurt Obama and she's failed to make her case.

 

[bamacre]

Whether Obama will be a good or bad president at this point in time is irrelevant.

When it comes to politics, your job is to first vote for the guy that you trust the most. And if you're lucky enough for him to win, then your job is to stop trusting him and instead watch him closely.

 

[b0mbrman]

51-49. It's over.

http://spreadsheets.google.com...Of_Yif-0Yw_km6bslqb8RQ

 

[theeedude]

Obama can't even win in his own back yard.

 

[nageov3t]

he won his backyard, it was the rest of the state that voted against him.

 

[Duddy]

It's wierd how a lose for Obama is actually a win in general.

 

[Compddd]

Obama smites Hillary Clinton so violently, even the lifestone flinches!

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: loki8481
he won his backyard, it was the rest of the state that voted against him.

I guess he doesn't really appeal to suburban voters, even in his own backyard.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: UberNeuman
Again, senseamp

So, you feel that if, and if, Obama became President, he'd want to enslave whitey?

I'd rather not be dealing with the whole race issue for 4 years. There are more important things to deal with at this time. Economy going into crapper being top and foremost. It's going to be a distraction, really. This country is not in need of a Nelson Mandela.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Obama can't even win in his own back yard.

Clinton couldn't win Conneticut, her backyard.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: loki8481
he won his backyard, it was the rest of the state that voted against him.

Connecticut, Vermont?

Or Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama?

Your choice

 

[Duddy]

He won all the cities. He lost all the farming counties. Farming counties are made up of old people and rednecks.

The senior vote (65 and older) helped Hillary win. And everyone knows that most seniors are VERY racist.

 

[JSt0rm]

Originally posted by: senseamp
I'd rather not be dealing with the whole race issue for 4 years. There are more important things to deal with at this time. Economy going into crapper being top and foremost. It's going to be a distraction, really. This country is not in need of a Nelson Mandela.

lol. I guess your white because a lot of people in this country deal with the race issue their entire lives. I think you need to look deeper into your words here as they come off a little racist to me.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: Duddy
He won all the cities. He lost all the farming counties. Farming counties are made up of old people and rednecks.

The senior vote (65 and older) helped Hillary win. And everyone knows that most seniors are VERY racist.

And now you just gave him a permission slip...

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: JSt0rm01

Originally posted by: senseamp
I'd rather not be dealing with the whole race issue for 4 years. There are more important things to deal with at this time. Economy going into crapper being top and foremost. It's going to be a distraction, really. This country is not in need of a Nelson Mandela.

lol. I guess your white because a lot of people in this country deal with the race issue their entire lives. I think you need to look deeper into your words here as they come off a little racist to me.

Here you go with the race card. It's going to be this same sh!t for 4 years with Obama supporters if he wins. It's a big racial issue for them. Anyone against him is just the man trying to keep a brother down.