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May 6th Primaries Thread

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Originally posted by: Lemon law
I personally believe the GOP wet dream dream of a democratic floor fight will end up being just that, nothing but a wet dream.

And once that wet dream is safely disposed of, the GOP will have to face grim reality. For now McCain gets a pass.

And soon McCain will be viewed as the second coming of Hurbert Hoover. A clueless nice guy without a single answer.
Click to expand...

I've got some bad news... Hoover won the election. 😛
 
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: lopri
I think after this election Dems should change this stupid nomination process. My opinion is either 1) Popular votes or 2) Winner-take-all like GOP does. If they still want to keep the proportional delegate system, they should hold Primaries only. (no caucus)

I also suggest they shorten the primary process at least by half. 5~6 months primaries are ridiculous. 2 month spread would be enough.
Click to expand...
No way. If it wasn't for the length of this race we would not be learning all this stuff about Obama. The fact that it is coming out now actually helps the Democrats. Imagine the Rev Wright thing being dropped in the middle of September or October and Obama spending 2 weeks right before the election defending him...

When it is all said and done if Obama wins they should thank Hillary for really testing him before hand.
Click to expand...
You do have a point but the Wright issue is somewhat different. First, this issue will certainly resurface should Obama win the nomination. And there is a very good chance that we'll hear from the pastor again. Second, Clinton can't wield full-throttle attack on Obama with regard to the Rev. Wright for obvious reasons, but the Pubs have nothing to lose.

That reminds me , and others also should keep in mind, that there are a lot of things that Clinton/Obama can't say about each other - which we will surely hear in the fall regardless who the nominee will be.
 
Originally posted by: loki8481
Originally posted by: Lemon law
I personally believe the GOP wet dream dream of a democratic floor fight will end up being just that, nothing but a wet dream.

And once that wet dream is safely disposed of, the GOP will have to face grim reality. For now McCain gets a pass.

And soon McCain will be viewed as the second coming of Hurbert Hoover. A clueless nice guy without a single answer.
Click to expand...

I've got some bad news... Hoover won the election. 😛
Click to expand...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------]

Just as Hoover won the first election in 1928, loki8481 conveniently forgets Hoover did not exactly win his second coming election in 1932. And if loki thinks McCain will become the third coming of GWB&co, he is delusional indeed.
 
Originally posted by: Lemon law
Originally posted by: loki8481
Originally posted by: Lemon law
I personally believe the GOP wet dream dream of a democratic floor fight will end up being just that, nothing but a wet dream.

And once that wet dream is safely disposed of, the GOP will have to face grim reality. For now McCain gets a pass.

And soon McCain will be viewed as the second coming of Hurbert Hoover. A clueless nice guy without a single answer.
Click to expand...

I've got some bad news... Hoover won the election. 😛
Click to expand...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------]

Just as Hoover won the first election in 1928, loki8481 conveniently forgets Hoover did not exactly win his second coming election in 1932. And if loki thinks McCain will become the third coming of GWB&co, he is delusional indeed.
Click to expand...

I'm not so delusional to think that McCain would be like a third term for GW.
 
And now we finally cut to the chase with the loki8481 joke of---I'm not so delusional to think that McCain would be like a third term for GW.

What is that old sold song? Something to the effects of " You can't always get what you want."

GWB&co has already dome a magnificent job of insuring McCain is doomed. Its now too late for McCain to sue for divorce. Too little too late is the McCain fate.
 
Originally posted by: loki8481
Originally posted by: Lemon law
I personally believe the GOP wet dream dream of a democratic floor fight will end up being just that, nothing but a wet dream.

And once that wet dream is safely disposed of, the GOP will have to face grim reality. For now McCain gets a pass.

And soon McCain will be viewed as the second coming of Hurbert Hoover. A clueless nice guy without a single answer.
Click to expand...

I've got some bad news... Hoover won the election. 😛
Click to expand...

Interestingly enough, Hoover's VP was almost half Native American.
 
Drudge is reporting that Hillary may expect a 15 point loss in NC.

I think that is a little high based on recent polling and maybe a sign of lowering expectations.

Overall though I don't think what happens in NC really matters. Everyone expects Obama to win and when he does it doesn't really prove anything.
Indiana is the important one. If one candidate does better than expected there then maybe it can change the outcome long term. If Obama wins Indiana and it's over for Hillary, but if she gets a 5+ point victory she can once again claim that she is the better candidate for the fall.
 
Originally posted by: Lemon law
And now we finally cut to the chase with the loki8481 joke of---I'm not so delusional to think that McCain would be like a third term for GW.

What is that old sold song? Something to the effects of " You can't always get what you want."

GWB&co has already dome a magnificent job of insuring McCain is doomed. Its now too late for McCain to sue for divorce. Too little too late is the McCain fate.
Click to expand...

if it rhymes, it must be true [dimes]
 
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Drudge is reporting that Hillary may expect a 15 point loss in NC.

I think that is a little high based on recent polling and maybe a sign of lowering expectations.

Overall though I don't think what happens in NC really matters. Everyone expects Obama to win and when he does it doesn't really prove anything.
Indiana is the important one. If one candidate does better than expected there then maybe it can change the outcome long term. If Obama wins Indiana and it's over for Hillary, but if she gets a 5+ point victory she can once again claim that she is the better candidate for the fall.
Click to expand...

Zogby has Obama up in IN by 2 points. Within the margin of error, but it looks to be very close in a state Clinton realy should and needs to win. Zogby also has Obama up by 14 in NC based on the last two day poll ending last night.

So, really, what will Clinton do if she loses both and one by a landslide. I simply can't see her staying in the race. It will do the dems no good for her to do so.

And then there is Edwards with his 200 or so delegates. What will he do with them after today?
 
Prediction:

Obama by 14 points in NC
Clinton by 6 points in Indiana

Overall +13 pledged delegates for Obama by the end of the day.
 
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Drudge is reporting that Hillary may expect a 15 point loss in NC.

I think that is a little high based on recent polling and maybe a sign of lowering expectations.

Overall though I don't think what happens in NC really matters. Everyone expects Obama to win and when he does it doesn't really prove anything.
Indiana is the important one. If one candidate does better than expected there then maybe it can change the outcome long term. If Obama wins Indiana and it's over for Hillary, but if she gets a 5+ point victory she can once again claim that she is the better candidate for the fall.
Click to expand...

Zogby has Obama up in IN by 2 points. Within the margin of error, but it looks to be very close in a state Clinton realy should and needs to win. Zogby also has Obama up by 14 in NC based on the last two day poll ending last night.

So, really, what will Clinton do if she loses both and one by a landslide. I simply can't see her staying in the race. It will do the dems no good for her to do so.

And then there is Edwards with his 200 or so delegates. What will he do with them after today?
Click to expand...

if Clinton loses both, it's over.

even if she doesn't formally withdraw, she's going to start seeing her supporters defect en mass.
 
Originally posted by: Tab
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
And then there is Edwards with his 200 or so delegates. What will he do with them after today?
Click to expand...

I'm quite interested in this... Could this be the deciding factor?
Click to expand...

I am beginning to wonder. Technically, Edwards has no hold on the delegates he won, just as technically, the dem delegates can really vote for anyone they want. But traditionally, at least for the first round at the convention, they vote as alloted in the primary or caucus.

Edwards could endorse one or the other candidates and then assign his delegates to that candidate. That does not mean the delegates Edwards had would vote as he wished, but it would make for some interesting times...
Click to expand...
 
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Drudge is reporting that Hillary may expect a 15 point loss in NC.

I think that is a little high based on recent polling and maybe a sign of lowering expectations.

Overall though I don't think what happens in NC really matters. Everyone expects Obama to win and when he does it doesn't really prove anything.
Indiana is the important one. If one candidate does better than expected there then maybe it can change the outcome long term. If Obama wins Indiana and it's over for Hillary, but if she gets a 5+ point victory she can once again claim that she is the better candidate for the fall.
Click to expand...

Zogby has Obama up in IN by 2 points. Within the margin of error, but it looks to be very close in a state Clinton realy should and needs to win. Zogby also has Obama up by 14 in NC based on the last two day poll ending last night.

So, really, what will Clinton do if she loses both and one by a landslide. I simply can't see her staying in the race. It will do the dems no good for her to do so.

And then there is Edwards with his 200 or so delegates. What will he do with them after today?
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure Edwards doesn't have anywhere near 200 delegates. I don't have the numbers offhand, but I'd be surprised if he had 1/10th that.
 
Exit polls seem to be pointing toward a shocking turn and Hillary is leading big time in NC.

Just kidding. As expected, Obama will clinch that more delegate-heavy state, bringing the impossibility of a win for Hillary ever close to fruition. Haha
 
What is it skoorb? Aprils fools day is on May 6 in Canada?

But still good comic relief until the actual results come out with most precincts counted in four hours from now. For some elation, for others its all over except for the crying.
 
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Exit polls seem to be pointing toward a shocking turn and Hillary is leading big time in NC.

Just kidding. As expected, Obama will clinch that more delegate-heavy state, bringing the impossibility of a win for Hillary ever close to fruition. Haha
Click to expand...

Don't be so sure. This doesn't bode well for BO:

In Indiana, 49 percent of voters in the Democratic primary said the issue was not important, compared to 48 percent who said it was an important factor in their vote.

In North Carolina 50 percent of voters said the Wright controversy was important, and 48 percent said it was not.
Click to expand...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI...ries.change/index.html

Hillary may very well squeak out a win in NC and win big in IN.

 
Originally posted by: mflacy
Prediction:

Obama by 14 points in NC
Clinton by 6 points in Indiana

Overall +13 pledged delegates for Obama by the end of the day.
Click to expand...

I think that may be a couple of points high for Obama.
my estimate is
NC + 11 Obama
Indiana +5 Clinton
 
Originally posted by: mflacy
Drudge Headline:

HILLARY'S 'DOUBLE DREAM' DASHED: EXITS SHOW EASY OBAMA WIN IN NC
Click to expand...

Drudge's leaked exits are always off.

Hillary has a better chance of sweeping than Obama does of an "easy win" in NC
 
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Exit polls seem to be pointing toward a shocking turn and Hillary is leading big time in NC.

Just kidding. As expected, Obama will clinch that more delegate-heavy state, bringing the impossibility of a win for Hillary ever close to fruition. Haha
Click to expand...

Don't be so sure. This doesn't bode well for BO:

In Indiana, 49 percent of voters in the Democratic primary said the issue was not important, compared to 48 percent who said it was an important factor in their vote.

In North Carolina 50 percent of voters said the Wright controversy was important, and 48 percent said it was not.
Click to expand...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI...ries.change/index.html

Hillary may very well squeak out a win in NC and win big in IN.
Click to expand...
Not a chance. Tonight is a bad night for ole' Swillary.

I wonder if she'll cry when she gives her concession speech (whenever that is).

 
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: b0mbrman
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Exit polls seem to be pointing toward a shocking turn and Hillary is leading big time in NC.

Just kidding. As expected, Obama will clinch that more delegate-heavy state, bringing the impossibility of a win for Hillary ever close to fruition. Haha
Click to expand...

Don't be so sure. This doesn't bode well for BO:

In Indiana, 49 percent of voters in the Democratic primary said the issue was not important, compared to 48 percent who said it was an important factor in their vote.

In North Carolina 50 percent of voters said the Wright controversy was important, and 48 percent said it was not.
Click to expand...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI...ries.change/index.html

Hillary may very well squeak out a win in NC and win big in IN.
Click to expand...
Not a chance. Tonight is a bad night for ole' Swillary.

I wonder if she'll cry when she gives her concession speech (whenever that is).
Click to expand...

Has she given a concession speech since South Carolina?

Anyhow, how do you see the near-half of people saying Wright was a big deal playing out?
 
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