Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE

 

[Ajay]

Thought this might belong here for people interested in the technology angle. It requires some understanding of current EUV technology to fully grasp what is changing with high NA EUV but is still going to be interesting even if you lack that. I particularly enjoyed a new unit of measurement for power draw - "number of Walmart supercenters". For those outside the US, just imagine the biggest shopping center you've ever seen, then imagine it 'American sized' lol

Interesting comments from the ASML CTO at the end about the affordability of what comes after high NA EUV.

That was a good vid. I like the guy who makes these - does his research.

 

[Hitman928]

That was a good vid. I like the guy who makes these - does his research.

Yep, underrated channel.

 

[Panino Manino]

No comments about the Huawei Mate 60 with all chips fabbed on China?

 

[H433x0n]

No comments about the Huawei Mate 60 with all chips fabbed on China?

Too early to tell. I'd wait until TechInsights or somebody similar gets their hands on a retail device.

Also - I’d be willing to bet any talk about this would derail this thread and things would get political really fast.

 

[Panino Manino]

Too early to tell. I'd wait until TechInsights or somebody similar gets their hands on a retail device.

Also - I’d be willing to bet any talk about this would derail this thread and things would get political really fast.

Well, it is political.

I'm glad for them, but even if they managed to fab something at like 7nm, for what I know smaller nodes aren't just about being smaller, right? They're a lot more complex and I can't see anyone new to this business managing to fab these new nodes anytime soon no matter how much effort they put.

 

[H433x0n]

Well, it is political.

I'm glad for them, but even if they managed to fab something at like 7nm, for what I know smaller nodes aren't just about being smaller, right? They're a lot more complex and I can't see anyone new to this business managing to fab these new nodes anytime soon no matter how much effort they put.

It is political, that’s why it was released today while the commerce secretary was in China. They’re also in a financial downturn and desperately need a propaganda feel good piece.

Realistically they’re using holdover chips from before the sanctions or it’s from a cherry picked wafer that had some working 7nm-ish chips on it.

SMIC removed FinFETs from their website and only offer 0.35um to 28nm planar nodes. They’re 10+ years behind and have no viable route to produce anything on the leading edge until they either have the export restrictions lifted or create a domestic EUV alternative. The DUV machines they have are also outdated and not as advanced as what TSMC, Intel & Samsung are using. This means even using SAQP, it’d be incredibly difficult to produce an N7 equivalent process.

It’s for the best that it stay that way. If TSMC was a mainland company it’s not an exaggeration to say that the world would be a different place. You do not want the CCP to have that type of leverage over the western world.

 

[NostaSeronx]

SMIC removed FinFETs from their website and only offer 0.35um to 28nm planar nodes. They’re 10+ years behind and have no viable route to produce anything on the leading edge until they either have the export restrictions lifted or create a domestic EUV alternative. The DUV machines they have are also outdated and not as advanced as what TSMC, Intel & Samsung are using. This means even using SAQP, it’d be incredibly difficult to produce an N7 equivalent process.

It has been shuffled under their subsidiary; Semiconductor Manufacturing South Corp

SMIC's SN1 & SN2 is now under SMSC.


HLMC subsidiary also has a 14nm/7nm fab, which shares the same R&D center with SN1/SN2. So, ~110k wpm by 2026 based on the people who follow pure chinese fabs.

 

[H433x0n]

It has been shuffled under their subsidiary; Semiconductor Manufacturing South Corp

SMIC's SN1 & SN2 is now under SMSC.
View attachment 85101

HLMC also has a 14nm/7nm fab, which shares the same R&D center with SN1/SN2. So, ~110k wpm based on the people who follow pure chinese fabs.

They allegedly had a major 7nm breakthrough in July 2022 and so far there’s been nothing until this Huawei phone more than a year later. Who knows what the deal is with that Huawei phone I guess we’ll see how legitimate it is.

If it’s like any of the other major Chinese developments - it’s likely not real. I imagine it’ll be just like China’s AI development where just 9 months ago they were allegedly leading the world in AI research and then ChatGPT3 became public and that illusion shattered.

 

[NostaSeronx]

They allegedly had a major 7nm breakthrough in July 2022 and so far there’s been nothing until this Huawei phone more than a year later. Who knows what the deal is with that Huawei phone I guess we’ll see how legitimate it is.

If it’s like any of the other major Chinese developments - it’s likely not real. I imagine it’ll be just like China’s AI development where just 9 months ago they were allegedly leading the world in AI research and then ChatGPT3 became public and that illusion shattered.

Overall, I wouldn't know about the Huawei stuff. I don't really pay attention to ARM.

Kunminghu (Xiangshan v3) is supposedly a "7nm" core via SMIC, targeting Neoverse N2.

Alibaba/T-head (#2 XS3 team member) == Yitian 710 is going to be replaced by the above.
Sophgo (#7 XS3 team member) == SG2042 is going to be replaced by the above.

SMIC/SMSC so far hasn't shown any 7nm/5nm stuff yet. They have only shown Gen1 SAQP/N+1/10nm node. Gen2 SAQP/N+2/Real 7 is only set for 2025 tool->ramp production/2026 ramp->max productiom.

Further investigation it all just cause I can;;;
However, the 9000Super 5G promostuff says this:


General guide of "7nm" nodes::
SMIC = 89.0 mtr/mmsqr
TSMC = 91.2 mtr/mmsqr
Samsung = 95.1 mtr/mmsqr
Intel = 100.8 mtr/mmsqr

Does SMIC have 7nm and if so, what does it mean - Semiwiki

Recently TechInsights analyzed a Bitcoin Miner chip fabbed at SMIC and declared SMIC has a 7nm process. There has been some debate as to whether the SMIC process is really 7nm and what it means if it is 7nm. I wanted to discuss the case for and against the process being 7nm, and what I…

semiwiki.com

Huawei plans to use SMIC's 'nearly-7nm' process

China's telecommunications giant Huawei is planning to restart designing mobile phone chips, circumventing export controls, said Nikkei.

www.eenewseurope.com

 

[DrMrLordX]

SMIC removed FinFETs from their website and only offer 0.35um to 28nm planar nodes.

Didn't they have a 14nm equivalent node that they erm borrowed from Samsung?

 

[Panino Manino]

It is political, that’s why it was released today while the commerce secretary was in China. They’re also in a financial downturn and desperately need a propaganda feel good piece.

Realistically they’re using holdover chips from before the sanctions or it’s from a cherry picked wafer that had some working 7nm-ish chips on it.

SMIC removed FinFETs from their website and only offer 0.35um to 28nm planar nodes. They’re 10+ years behind and have no viable route to produce anything on the leading edge until they either have the export restrictions lifted or create a domestic EUV alternative. The DUV machines they have are also outdated and not as advanced as what TSMC, Intel & Samsung are using. This means even using SAQP, it’d be incredibly difficult to produce an N7 equivalent process.

It’s for the best that it stay that way. If TSMC was a mainland company it’s not an exaggeration to say that the world would be a different place. You do not want the CCP to have that type of leverage over the western world.

They will achieve EUV, eventually, but what if they achieve it sooner than expected?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696882011821027659

I'm hoping for them.

 

[Ajay]

They will achieve EUV, eventually, but what if they achieve it sooner than expected?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696882011821027659

I'm hoping for them.

I doubt it will be soon. The range of supply chain partners includes some of the most capable companies in the world for their area of specialty. ASML depends on many hundreds of partners to supply components for their EUV machines.

 

[maddie]

I doubt it will be soon. The range of supply chain partners includes some of the most capable companies in the world for their area of specialty. ASML depends on many hundreds of partners to supply components for their EUV machines.

I fail to see this. If one solution entails X, why would you think another path can't work? Do we really understand the scale of China? You do say this.

some of the most capable companies in the world for their area of specialty

I assume this to mean that close to comparable expertise also exists elsewhere. Complacency can bite. I'm very skeptical of these arguments, as I've seen them repeated and failed many times previously.

edit: Merely knowing a solution exists can speed development and ASML themselves worry about this sanction policy being detrimental.

 

[H433x0n]

They will achieve EUV, eventually, but what if they achieve it sooner than expected?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696882011821027659

I'm hoping for them.

If you live in the West or Taiwan you shouldn’t be hoping for them.

The moment they get any leverage they exploit it to push their model and censorship onto the rest of the world. They got some leverage in the film industry and Hollywood started self censoring. They’ve got a huge market for the NBA and we know how that ended up. They modernized their navy and coincidentally discovered a map with a 9 dash line and started building man made islands. If they were the ones who had a monopoly on leading edge nodes - what do you think happens to Apple/Nvidia/AMD? All of our LLM would be censored and pro-Beijing overnight. ChatGPT would be promoting Xi Jingping thought and socialism with Chinese characteristics.



ABSOLUTELY NO POLITICS ALLOWED IN TECH PERIOD. DO NOT BRING THAT INTO HERE AGAIN, OR YOU'LL BE PUT OUT TO THE TRASH ALONG WITH POLITCS IN TECH.
WE HAVE A DEDICATED DRAMA SECTION CALLED POLITICS & NEWS FOR THAT.

MODERATOR AIGO

 

[Ajay]

I fail to see this. If one solution entails X, why would you think another path can't work? Do we really understand the scale of China? You do say this.


I assume this to mean that close to comparable expertise also exists elsewhere. Complacency can bite. I'm very skeptical of these arguments, as I've seen them repeated and failed many times previously.

edit: Merely knowing a solution exists can speed development and ASML themselves worry about this sanction policy being detrimental.

Complacency? None of these companies are being complacent. The pace is too relentless. Also, ASML, of course, is worried - they always have to worry about future competition. I didn't say China would never get there, just that I doubt it's happening anytime soon. The number of blunders, scams and corruption in most of Chinese companies 'attempts' to create new semiconductor companies is legendary - it's hard to see how they can move forward very quickly in this type of environment.

 

[Dayman1225]

Pat G has said Intel has secured a large prepayment for a customer on 18A.

https://x.com/realmemes6/status/1697299363985502537?s=46&t=Go9LM3iS24APoFi_ulHkGw

 

[Dayman1225]

There was also a slide posted for the event, with an Ericcson SoC posted beside 18a so that could be it

https://x.com/realmemes6/status/1697308238096805976?s=46&t=Go9LM3iS24APoFi_ulHkGw

 

[Doug S]

General guide of "7nm" nodes::
SMIC = 89.0 mtr/mmsqr
TSMC = 91.2 mtr/mmsqr
Samsung = 95.1 mtr/mmsqr
Intel = 100.8 mtr/mmsqr

Which nodes? Is that TSMC's original N7, or N7+? Is that "Intel 7" or what Intel was calling 7nm previously? Is that Samsung's EA or LPP 7?

What about whether a process was designed for lower power or for frequency?

Comparisons like these are mostly meaningless because it is going to be confusing what is meant by "7nm" and whether it is the first version or the mainstream version or a refined version of "7nm" and whether its intended audience makes it more or less dense than another foundry's "7nm".

 

[A///]

the late exist60 mentioned that ericsson project after I kept pestering him who had signed with Intel. looking forward to see the leaks of who these unnamed partners are for 18a.

 

[Ajay]

There was also a slide posted for the event, with an Ericcson SoC posted beside 18a so that could be it

https://x.com/realmemes6/status/1697308238096805976?s=46&t=Go9LM3iS24APoFi_ulHkGw

Your pic was kind of small for some reason.

 

[Dayman1225]

View attachment 85112

Your pic was kind of small for some reason.

Probably because it was a screenshot on my phone, still in work so had to be quick

 

[A///]

What comes after arrowlake for client?

 

[NostaSeronx]

Which nodes? Is that TSMC's original N7, or N7+? Is that "Intel 7" or what Intel was calling 7nm previously? Is that Samsung's EA or LPP 7?

What about whether a process was designed for lower power or for frequency?

Comparisons like these are mostly meaningless because it is going to be confusing what is meant by "7nm" and whether it is the first version or the mainstream version or a refined version of "7nm" and whether its intended audience makes it more or less dense than another foundry's "7nm".

Those are the phone SoC library numbers, since we are talking about a phone SoC from Huawei/Hisilicon.
TSMC N7/N7+[can be tapedout w/o small Mx, most customers used this and went N6]/N6, with a RTO from N7 = TSMC = 91.2 mtr/mmsqr
Intel 10nm/7 etc, with a RTO from 10nm Hero/"HPM" = Intel = 100.8 mtr/mmsqr
Samsung can be 7LPP/6LPP/5LPE/5LPP if its a retapeout of 7LPP = Samsung = 95.1 mtr/mmsqr

SMIC's N+1 based on Innosilicon IP has a high-performance library of 10LPE~8LPU, while the high density/phone SoC lib is on par with Samsung 7LPP/Intel 10nm-7/TSMC's 7nm nodes. The library makes it close to 7nm, thus it is 7nm.

They will achieve EUV, eventually, but what if they achieve it sooner than expected?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696882011821027659

I'm hoping for them.

SMIC via Canon's China clone is expected to use NIL tools in 2025, not EUV. Canon announced SMIC/YMTC/BOE will be using the next NIL tool in the pipeline post-NZ2C.

It is implied that Fab8.2/GF is expected to use the domestic NIL tool (Made in US/Canon Nanotech Texas).
Fab8.2 => 12FDX, [9FDX/6FDX/3FDX]=>requirement for US/EU gov chip funding.

 

[Doug S]

SMIC via Canon's China clone is expected to use NIL tools in 2025, not EUV. Canon announced SMIC/YMTC/BOE will be using the next NIL tool in the pipeline post-NZ2C.

It is implied that Fab8.2/GF is expected to use the domestic NIL tool (Made in US/Canon Nanotech Texas).
Fab8.2 => 12FDX, [9FDX/6FDX/3FDX]=>requirement for US/EU gov chip funding.

I thought NIL had major issues with defect rates in any kind of production quantity throughput. Have those issues been solved? Is anyone using NIL in production today?

 

[clemsyn]

There was also a slide posted for the event, with an Ericcson SoC posted beside 18a so that could be it

https://x.com/realmemes6/status/1697308238096805976?s=46&t=Go9LM3iS24APoFi_ulHkGw

I think its somebody else and not Ericson.

Intel to Accelerate Arizona Fab Build Out After Getting Large Customer Order

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger says third-quarter revenues are running at the high end of the company's guidance range

www.barrons.com

Seems like a big company...Nvidia?