zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,992
- 31,551
- 146
IAteYourMother
Lifer
- Nov 3, 2004
- 10,491
- 22
- 81
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
- 106
Dome teams are 3-22 in the playoffs when they're outdoors and it's 35 degrees or colder.
Forecast for Philly at game time:
8 PM
Mostly Clear
26°
Mostly Clear
FEELS LIKE:
20°
HUMIDITY:
63%
PRECIP:
0%
9 PM
Mostly Clear
25°
Mostly Clear
FEELS LIKE:
20°
HUMIDITY:
66%
PRECIP:
0%
History says Brees is shit out of luck tomorrow night.
Forecast for Philly at game time:
8 PM
Mostly Clear
26°
Mostly Clear
FEELS LIKE:
20°
HUMIDITY:
63%
PRECIP:
0%
9 PM
Mostly Clear
25°
Mostly Clear
FEELS LIKE:
20°
HUMIDITY:
66%
PRECIP:
0%
History says Brees is shit out of luck tomorrow night.
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,992
- 31,551
- 146
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,992
- 31,551
- 146
exactly.
that is why it should be such an epic game...at least, the potential. What if Brees goes beast mode and somehow turns it into a duck slaughter?
I am watching this game .....(until the first half, at least)
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
- 106
Then he'll raise the 12% win % of playoff dome teams in < 35 degree weather to 15%.
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,992
- 31,551
- 146
Why this is even still being debated I have no idea. The 49ers ended up with a better record and he's played nowhere near as bad as people are acting like he has (and likewise the people acting like Smith has played amazing are just...not paying attention).
Of course you won't because you can't handle people not worshipping Alex Smith or calling you on your BS and actually backing up opinions with reasoning. I don't remember much "debate" with you any way, it was more I post something and then you freak out and start name calling.
Frankly I can't tell who you have a bigger hard on for, me or Alex Smith.
Smith also has a worse QB Rating and almost a yard less per attempt. Smith's numbers are marginally better in a pass happy offense (where pass often means a screen pass to Jamaal Charles who then gets 95% of the yards on the play; I'm not even saying this to be absurd, go look at the 2nd Oakland game for instance).
I'm not even saying Smith has played bad as he hasn't, but fact is, despite being very different in how they go about getting them, their numbers are actually quite similar. And this is in a "rough" year for Kaep and a "good" year for Smith.
akugami
Diamond Member
- Feb 14, 2005
- 6,210
- 2,552
- 136
For those who say Drew Brees never plays well outdoors or in the cold...Nick Foles grew up in the same town and went to the same high school as Brees. They're both warm weather persons. Maybe after another couple years of seasoning in the Philadelphia winters, Nick Foles will be more of a cold weather guy but I don't think the cold is going to be as big of an advantage as some think.
The weather in Philadelphia right now, and this is a highly scientific term, is friggin cold.
The weather in Philadelphia right now, and this is a highly scientific term, is friggin cold.
Nintendesert
Diamond Member
- Mar 28, 2010
- 7,761
- 5
- 0
Guys, I started drinking screwdrivers at 8am today. Am I an alcoholic or is it just the NFL playoffs?!!!
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
- 106
While Foles may be adverse to cold weather (remains to be seen), they have the #1 running back in the league who thrives in any weather. Too bad NO doesn't have a RB, they'll have to rely on Brees.
akugami
Diamond Member
- Feb 14, 2005
- 6,210
- 2,552
- 136
1) Do you have a horse in this race?
2) Are you with friends?
If it's no to both of those questions, then you should stay away from sparks and open flames or else you might catch fire. You should legally be required to have a "Warning: Flammable" sticker on your forehead.
SSSnail
Lifer
- Nov 29, 2006
- 17,458
- 83
- 86
Darkswordman, I've already proven you're an idiot when it comes to football, and that has nothing to do with Alex Smith. That's why talking football to you is like talking to a wall. I'd much rather talk to a wall, to be honest, at least the wall doesn't have the ability to be any more daft.
Your mistake is that you don't realize your "reasoning" is actually bullshit, and you think facts are "reasoning".
Your mistake is that you don't realize your "reasoning" is actually bullshit, and you think facts are "reasoning".
Last edited:
akugami
Diamond Member
- Feb 14, 2005
- 6,210
- 2,552
- 136
I'm in Philadelphia and I'd love it if the Eagles win but it seems like some in the media and even some here think it's a foregone conclusion Philadelphia will do better QB wise. Just saying that until we see more out of Foles, I don't think the cold weather is as much of an advantage as some think.
The real advantage Philadelphia has, as you pointed out, is LeSean McCoy who is from Harrisburg PA so he's used to this type of weather.
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,992
- 31,551
- 146
so...you didn't watch the 49ers at all the previous 2 seasons. a "good year" for Smith.
zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,992
- 31,551
- 146
SSSnail
Lifer
- Nov 29, 2006
- 17,458
- 83
- 86
You didn't heed my warnings... /facepalmso...you didn't watch the 49ers at all the previous 2 seasons. a "good year" for Smith.
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
- 106
Dark does have some valid points. I just checked out Kaepernick and Alex Smith on PFF to check out their real performances on the year and both have their strong and weak points.
Kaep - #18 at +2.7 (grading includes passing, rushing, and penalties)
Smith - #24 at -0.6
Kaep had the better overall season and Smith had below average QB play. Oddly enough, Smith rated higher at rushing than Kaep with a +4.8 vs +4.3, Kaep higher passing at -0.4 vs -6.0.
There are other advanced metrics we can check as well.
PFF's QB Rating (Defined as "Offering an alternative to the out-dated standard, we take into account dropped passes, throw aways, spikes, and yards in the air and further adjust the old formula so it makes more sense and is a more accurate measure.")
Of qualifying QBs (50% of total dropbacks):
Kaep - #8/27 at 88.56 (highest is Nick Foles, 99.91)
Smith - #17/27 at 85.08
Not a huge difference here but Kaep is better with a 9 spot difference.
We can even look at Yards in the Air % i.e. Passing Yardage Before the Catch/Total Passing Yards, which will take away all of the Jamaal Charles TDs where he did all of the work yet Smith got credited for the yards in the air.
Kaep - #4/27 at 60.1%
Smith - #26/27 at 47.1%
Kaep is dominant through the air with 13% more yards and a whopping 22 spot difference.
Now let's look at PFF's Accuracy % (Defined as PFF's "Accuracy Percentage" accounts for dropped passes, throw aways, spiked balls, batted passes, and passes where the quarterback was hit while they threw the ball - factors that hurt the quarterback's completion percentage but don't help show how accurate they are. The formula: ((Completions + Drops) / (Attempts - Throw Aways - Spikes - Batted Passes - Hit As Thrown)):
Smith - #9/27 at 73.1%
Kaep - #23/27 at 69.3%
While the gap (4%~) between them isn't that large here, Smith was slightly more accurate and good for a 14 spot difference.
Deep Passing (...derived from passing attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield.)
Note that Smith doesn't even qualify for 50% of all deep passing attempts in the league. Kaep ranks #5/21 here at 45.6%. (If we set it to 60%, Kaep moves up to #4. 75%, he drops off the list).
If I drop it to 25% of all deep passing attempts for Smith to show up-
Smith - 46.3% (#8) with only 8.1% (37/40) of all passes going deep
Kaep - 45.6% (#11) with 13.7% (10/40) of all passes going deep
Given that Kaep threw for 683 yds and only 420 for Smith, Kaep is better at deep passing - no doubt that Smith's accuracy would regress with higher volume and they are very close even at 25% total. Smith did do better than I thought in the rare instance he did throw a deep pass.
Next, let's look at Under Pressure (The percentage of aimed passes a QB completes with drops counted as completions):
Smith - 60.0% (22/41) with 34.1% pressure of all dropbacks
Kaep - 55.1% (26/41) with 34.7% pressure
Smith is clearly better under pressure facing a similar amount of pressure this year.
Last, we will look at how each QB performs with Time in Pocket - 2.5 seconds or less (designed plays) vs 2.6 seconds or more (adapting when the play is dead):
< 2.5 seconds:
Kaep - #9/41 with NFL rating of 101.2
Smith - #16/41 with 93.7
>= 2.6 seconds:
Smith - #16/41 with 82.7
Kaep - #21/41 with 80.7
Not surprising, when the play goes too long then Kaep's performance drops under pressure. Smith is steady either way, but with a lower ceiling.
Summary: Kaep's better production on designed plays and penchant for big plays (deep passes) made him the ever slightly more valuable QB this year, however Smith was overall better under pressure and displayed slightly better passing accuracy overall in pressure & non-pressure situations. Kaep should surpass Smith a lot more next year as he will probably improve under pressure with more experience.
SSSnail
Lifer
- Nov 29, 2006
- 17,458
- 83
- 86
The problem is that there are a lot of things that go on on a football field that don't translate into stats. Anyone can parrot numbers, but numbers only tell you one aspect of the game. The tangibles and intangibles of the game sometimes cannot be measured. Other factors affecting the games aren't in the stats either.
For one, this is Smith first year in yet another offensive scheme, with entirely new team, new coach, new city, etc... As opposed to Kaep's familiarity with the Niners. Those kind of things don't exactly translate to stats, but do keep on arguing.
For one, this is Smith first year in yet another offensive scheme, with entirely new team, new coach, new city, etc... As opposed to Kaep's familiarity with the Niners. Those kind of things don't exactly translate to stats, but do keep on arguing.
Last edited:
- Dec 27, 2001
- 47,351
- 14
- 61
TRENDING THREADS
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 25K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 24K
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 23K
-
-
Facebook
Twitter