Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,193
3,977
136
Dave_5k said:
West Virginia is 100% flipped, that's 51 R locked in to start.
Montana is >80% chance flipping R, most likely at 52 R.
Ohio is basically 50/50 right now, call it 52.5 R
Michigan, PA, Wisconsin latest polls are leaning to stay D, but only at 60-70% odds right now - better than 50% chance one of these flips, call it 53 R
AZ, NV looking pretty solid D now, >80% safe
TX is probably ~70% chance of staying Cruz
FL is also possibly in play, but also probably ~70% chance of staying R, but combination of hurricane and abortion amendment might make this interesting.

My optimistic forecast is at 51 R, with Dems losing only WV and Montana, while stealing Florida. And unfortunately Cruz surviving yet again (Texas has done a masterful job in suppressing minority voters and choosing who is allowed to vote, making polls significantly overstate odds of beating Cruz)
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I agree with you that it could possibly be even worse than 52.
If god offered me 49 Senators guaranteed right now, I'd probably (maybe?) bite my tongue and take that deal.

One small correction to your math. Right now, we control 51 seats (including three independents). So WV's flip makes it 50-50.
So even if things go perfectly in the few lean Dem states in the Rust Belt, we would still need to work some magic in one of the contests we're currently trailing: TX, FL and MT.
So I agree with your assessment that ending up with 51 R is kinda an optimistic viewpoint.
 
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Pens1566

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,531
10,966
136
I think the one dark horse is the R seat in NE currently held by Fischer. Not a ton of polling and there were some that showed the Independent candidate up (inside the MoE). That result would not surprise me.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
manly said:
Not a prediction from 2700 miles away, but Alsobrooks is fairly safe. Maryland is so blue that Hogan would have to run at least 15 points better than DJT to pull off the upset. Not impossible for the popular former governor, but he's a clear underdog.

Unfortunately Jon Tester is looking cooked in Montana, and Dems only hope to steal a seat is against Ted Cruz in Texas, whose voters have a long penchant for reelecting shitbags. (Supposedly Nebraska is a race, maybe, but with not much high quality polling to really know.)

I'd bet a healthy amount that Repugs will have 51 or 52 Senate seats in the next Congress.
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I think this is, sadly, the most likely result.

Ted Cruz losing would be wonderful though. I will always remember Al Franken’s take on him - ‘I like Ted Cruz more than most of my colleagues and I fucking hate Ted Cruz’.
 
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G

gothuevos

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2010
3,365
2,373
136
cytg111 said:
Can someone dissect if Cenk has a point here or is smoking crack?

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Kamala looks cooked, anyone saying otherwise is simply denying them the reality around them.

Just look at the betting markets - Vegas knows. I assume this is in response to the leaked internal polls Cenyk is alluding to. Or something else Vegas is privy to. Regardless, the swing state polls continue to tighten, which favors Trump.

The Democratic party had 8 years to prepare for this day, instead they tried to gaslight us about Biden's condition and scrambled at the last second to push an unpopular Kamala. This is my frustration with them, that many people share.

At this point, the party deserves whatever happens to it after Trump consolidates power. They've failed us.
 
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F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
gothuevos said:
Kamala looks cooked, anyone saying otherwise is simply denying them the reality around them.

Just look at the betting markets - Vegas knows. I assume this is in response to the leaked internal polls Cenyk is alluding to. Or something else Vegas is privy to. Regardless, the swing state polls continue to tighten, which favors Trump.

The Democratic party had 8 years to prepare for this day, instead they tried to gaslight us about Biden's condition and scrambled at the last second to push an unpopular Kamala. This is my frustration with them, that many people share.

At this point, the party deserves whatever happens to it after Trump consolidates power. They've failed us.
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lol.

Guy who is always wrong and always predicts democrats losing predicts democrats losing again.

You never answer but I’m curious. Have you taken any time to consider why you’re always wrong? Clearly you are terrible at election predictions. Don't you want to get better?

Edit: remember when you predicted a democratic loss so severe they would have had to lose an election in Hawaii they won by FORTY FIVE POINTS.

You are either a giant liar or you’re someone who has emotional problems you should seek help for.
 
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Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,687
10,904
136
cytg111 said:
Can someone dissect if Cenk has a point here or is smoking crack?

Click to expand...

While I doubt the polls.. I think he's correct about the problem being the trend.

Trump is a bad guy isn't going to win the election.. you have to give people what they want.. and they want more government handouts.

Go bold on Medicare for all now!
 
G

gothuevos

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2010
3,365
2,373
136
fskimospy said:
lol.

Guy who is always wrong and always predicts democrats losing predicts democrats losing again.

You never answer but I’m curious. Have you taken any time to consider why you’re always wrong? Clearly you are terrible at election predictions. Don't you want to get better?

Edit: remember when you predicted a democratic loss so severe they would have had to lose an election in Hawaii they won by FORTY FIVE POINTS.

You are either a giant liar or you’re someone who has emotional problems you should seek help for.
Click to expand...

"It's the economy, stupid."

The only thing most people are seeing sre the outrageous prices we pay for everything. I'm not even saying it's the Democrats fault, because it's not even remotely true, but it's the message that is resonating the most right now.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
gothuevos said:
"It's the economy, stupid."

The only thing most people are seeing sre the outrageous prices we pay for everything. I'm not even saying it's the Democrats fault, because it's not even remotely true, but it's the message that is resonating the most right now.
Click to expand...
So have you considered why your predictions are always wrong?
 
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G

gothuevos

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2010
3,365
2,373
136
fskimospy said:
So have you considered why your predictions are always wrong?
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Always? You mean once, and that was only with respect to the magnitude, Rs still took the house.

I like your takes, I really do, but have you considered you're overlooking a lot of the red flags swirling around Kamala? She's doing worse than Clinton and Biden at these points in the cycle, unless you're claiming polling is just 100% off at this point. Which ago, would be aajir departure from 2016 and 2020.
 
Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lost_in_the_HTTP

Lifer
Nov 17, 2019
13,246
7,854
136
gothuevos said:
"It's the economy, stupid."

The only thing most people are seeing sre the outrageous prices we pay for everything. I'm not even saying it's the Democrats fault, because it's not even remotely true, but it's the message that is resonating the most right now.
Click to expand...
What outrageous prices?

Inflation is down and under control. Gas is falling.

Eggs are up, but that's because of bird flu.
 
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F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
gothuevos said:
Always? You mean once, and that was only with respect to the magnitude, Rs still took the house.

I like your takes, I really do, but have you considered you're overlooking a lot of the red flags swirling around Kamala? She's doing worse than Clinton and Biden at these points in the cycle, unless you're claiming polling is just 100% off at this point. Which ago, would be aajir departure from 2016 and 2020.
Click to expand...
Have you made a single, solitary correct election prediction here?
 
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F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,759
54,781
136
gothuevos said:
Rs flip House in 2022. Think I also called JD Vance winning in Ohio.
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LOL.

So to be clear you’re claiming the election where you said Republicans would win in Hawaii (necessary for your prediction) is an example of your prediction prowess?

You were massively, comically wrong, yet again.

So again, any prediction you made that was right?
 
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