Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

Page 125 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
Toggle sidebar Toggle sidebar
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,123
45,143
136
Trump has not moderated at all in a way that appeals to suburban voters so the Reuters poll findings could be legit. In fact he's done the compete opposite: he's screaming about crazy shit they do not care about.
 
Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,685
10,903
136
K1052 said:
Trump has not moderated at all in a way that appeals to suburban voters so the Reuters poll findings could be legit. In fact he's done the compete opposite: he's screaming about crazy shit they do not care about.
Click to expand...

But but Suburban women please like me!!!

I will be your protector!!!!
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,123
45,143
136
Indus said:
But but Suburban women please like me!!!

I will be your protector!!!!
Click to expand...

The Trump campaign has banked on turning out male voters, especially infrequent ones, and has essentially told women to fuck off. This is perhaps not the soundest strategy since women vote at higher rates than men consistently and especially in a presidential cycle.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Franz316, yottabit, dlerious and 1 other person
Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,529
10,010
136
Michael Moore, roundly booed when he predicted a Trump victory in 2016 in an audienced venue (IIRC in Michigan), this time predicts Trump loss:


K1052 said:
The Trump campaign has banked on turning out male voters, especially infrequent ones, and has essentially told women to fuck off. This is perhaps not the soundest strategy since women vote at higher rates than men consistently and especially in a presidential cycle.
Click to expand...

At end of video, Bill Maher explains that women are going to flood the polls to bury Trump.
 
  • Like
Reactions: yottabit, hal2kilo, cytg111 and 1 other person
Muse

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,529
10,010
136
K1052 said:
Trump has not moderated at all in a way that appeals to suburban voters so the Reuters poll findings could be legit. In fact he's done the compete opposite: he's screaming about crazy shit they do not care about.
Click to expand...
He's stopped talking to main stream media, he will only talk to right wing media. Tells me he likely is paying attention to the RW media, not MS media. Ergo, he is, gasp, out of touch.
 
  • Like
Reactions: yottabit, dlerious, hal2kilo and 2 others
Indus

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,685
10,903
136
Muse said:
He's stopped talking to main stream media, he will only talk to right wing media. Tells me he likely is paying attention to the RW media, not MS media. Ergo, he is, gasp, out of touch.
Click to expand...

Ahh the famous OAN Chanel Rion media strategy.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,123
45,143
136
Muse said:
He's stopped talking to main stream media, he will only talk to right wing media. Tells me he likely is paying attention to the RW media, not MS media. Ergo, he is, gasp, out of touch.
Click to expand...

It's kind of lost to time but Trump was everywhere in mass media in 2016. Now entirely absent except the right wing bubble.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dlerious and hal2kilo
S

Stokely

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,281
3,084
136
Indus said:
But but Suburban women please like me!!!

I will be your protector!!!!
Click to expand...

His "get behind big daddy so I can protect you little lady" act is vomit-inducing.

It would be vomit-inducing coming from anyone; but coming from a person who says he can grab women by their genitals with impunity, and who was found liable for assault, and who has cheated on multiple spouses, is just amazing.

How any woman would find this appealing in any way is bizarre. If I were single it would be a fantastic "don't stick it in the crazy" indicator right along with a red maga hat. Then again, no maga woman would want to date me after one minute of political conversation so it's a problem that takes care of itself.

It's just a variation of the same fear-mongering he's doing about migrants. "Only I, the paragon of American justice, can fend off this imminent threat to your FREEDOM!" yeah, fuck off bozo, and anyone falling for it can fuck off too.
 
BoomerD

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
66,061
14,474
146
Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
It greatly disturbs me that this is not the clear runaway by a wide margin Harris lead that it should be.

This should have been a done deal even with Joe.

There should not be any doubt at all.
Click to expand...
Yet, once again…I will be surprised in the Orange syphilitic canker doesn’t pull off a win.

I was surprised by Biden’s win in 2020…I can only hope to be similarly surprised next month.
 
Fenixgoon

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,157
12,606
136
  • Like
Reactions: yottabit, Muse, dlerious and 1 other person
MrSquished

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
26,060
24,367
136
I'm going to stick with the polls are not capturing what will be a big blue wave for the presidential election and the house. Still unsure about the Senate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hal2kilo
Fenixgoon

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,157
12,606
136
MrSquished said:
I'm going to stick with the polls are not capturing what will be a big blue wave for the presidential election and the house. Still unsure about the Senate.
Click to expand...
I really worry about Hogan winning a seat in Maryland since he is so well-liked in the state. I think if he were running as an independent it wouldn't be so bad, but using the Republican label when Trump is at the helm? C'mon man, we know you're above that. You know you're above that. You can do better.

Will be voting alsobrooks on that alone.
 
JTsyo

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
12,024
1,131
126
  • Like
Reactions: hal2kilo
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,193
3,977
136
Fenixgoon said:
I really worry about Hogan winning a seat in Maryland since he is so well-liked in the state. I think if he were running as an independent it wouldn't be so bad, but using the Republican label when Trump is at the helm? C'mon man, we know you're above that. You know you're above that. You can do better.

Will be voting alsobrooks on that alone.
Click to expand...
Not a prediction from 2700 miles away, but Alsobrooks is fairly safe. Maryland is so blue that Hogan would have to run at least 15 points better than DJT to pull off the upset. Not impossible for the popular former governor, but he's a clear underdog.

Unfortunately Jon Tester is looking cooked in Montana, and Dems only hope to steal a seat is against Ted Cruz in Texas, whose voters have a long penchant for reelecting shitbags. (Supposedly Nebraska is a race, maybe, but with not much high quality polling to really know.)

I'd bet a healthy amount that Repugs will have 51 or 52 Senate seats in the next Congress.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Dave_5k
hal2kilo

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
25,773
12,093
136
manly said:
Not a prediction from 2700 miles away, but Alsobrooks is fairly safe. Maryland is so blue that Hogan would have to run at least 15 points better than Kamala Harris to pull off the upset. Not impossible for the popular former governor, but he's a clear underdog.

Unfortunately Jon Tester is looking cooked in Montana, and Dems only hope to steal a seat is against Ted Cruz in Texas, whose voters have a long penchant for reelecting shitbags. (Supposedly Nebraska is a race, maybe, but with not much high quality polling to really know.)

I'd bet a healthy amount that Repugs will have 51 or 52 Senate seats in the next Congress.
Click to expand...
I guess the FL Medicare fraudster is still going to win?
 
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,193
3,977
136
hal2kilo said:
I guess the FL Medicare fraudster is still going to win?
Click to expand...
around these parts, people have been telling us that as Texas gets slightly more competitive with population inflow (i.e. more purple), Floriduh is going the opposite direction.

It would take a minor miracle to steal Rick Scott's seat.
6 years ago, Beto O'Rourke put a real scare into Ted Cruz and so at least Dems have a puncher's chance there if Allred has one more gear left in his engine.

Although to be fair, the polling averages for both TX and FL Senate races look similar right now (Cruz +4, Scott +5).
 
Last edited:
  • Wow
Reactions: hal2kilo
M

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,193
3,977
136
Jaskalas said:
I have long believed that winning the 2020 election resulted in Biden getting stuck holding the bag for the pandemic. It was a feeling of despair watching us gain just enough power to be held responsible while not having enough power to do anything truly good or consequential to help the American people. Winning elections is an almost fraudulent outcome in America where winning does NOT result in the power to govern. Government remains divided and the winners of elections get to sit back and watch the opposition !@#$ the bed.

Biden had NOTHING to do with the consequences of COVID. But rising prices immediately fell prey to Republican propaganda. And I have not heard Democrats fight back over that issue to reclaim the truth of the matter. Certainly not been present in the campaign. So when Americans ask themselves "are we better today than four years ago?" that answer IS damaging to Democrats. For no good reason other than it is a weapon for Republicans to issue undisputed lies.
Click to expand...
It's much more complicated than saying Biden got stuck with the Covid bag.* I don't see many pundits saying that, and I'm not too sure that citizens feel that either. Perhaps you mean that Biden got unfairly stuck with the high global inflation bag, and that's absolutely the case.

And you're wrong about Democrats not fighting back over pocketbook issues.
Bidenomics as a pitch has been an abject failure over the past two years, even as the economy has been very resilient and the envy of G8 nations. The underlying problem is that voters, by and large, are dumb and they don't care how you fight back against misconceptions. At the end of the day, many people believe the 2019 national economy were the glory days and no amount of education will convince them otherwise. And to be clear, the problem isn't what MAGAts think about this. There are a lot of moderate voters that feel this way, and that's why Joe Biden's approval rating has been dismal for the past 3 years.

This isn't to suggest all is lost and that we give up. As wrong as these vibes are, they are a little better than they were 12 months ago. The vibes don't quite match up with the reality (4.1% unemployment, surging stock markets) but they've at least gotten closer.**

* I would add that DJT deserves to hold the Covid bag for marching hundreds of thousands of Americans to their premature deaths, but sadly the dumb electorate doesn't see things that way. Teflon Don indeed.
** Some might recall from the SOTU thread (March?) that even (D) voters here were talking shit about the national economy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: nakedfrog and Jaskalas
D

Dave_5k

Platinum Member
May 23, 2017
2,007
3,820
136
manly said:
Not a prediction from 2700 miles away, but Alsobrooks is fairly safe. Maryland is so blue that Hogan would have to run at least 15 points better than DJT to pull off the upset. Not impossible for the popular former governor, but he's a clear underdog.

Unfortunately Jon Tester is looking cooked in Montana, and Dems only hope to steal a seat is against Ted Cruz in Texas, whose voters have a long penchant for reelecting shitbags. (Supposedly Nebraska is a race, maybe, but with not much high quality polling to really know.)

I'd bet a healthy amount that Repugs will have 51 or 52 Senate seats in the next Congress.
Click to expand...
West Virginia is 100% flipped, that's 51 R locked in to start.
Montana is >80% chance flipping R, most likely at 52 R.
Ohio is basically 50/50 right now, call it 52.5 R
Michigan, PA, Wisconsin latest polls are leaning to stay D, but only at 60-70% odds right now - better than 50% chance one of these flips, call it 53 R
AZ, NV looking pretty solid D now, >80% safe
TX is probably ~70% chance of staying Cruz
FL is also possibly in play, but also probably ~70% chance of staying R, but combination of hurricane and abortion amendment might make this interesting.

My optimistic forecast is at 51 R, with Dems losing only WV and Montana, while stealing Florida. And unfortunately Cruz surviving yet again (Texas has done a masterful job in suppressing minority voters and choosing who is allowed to vote, making polls significantly overstate odds of beating Cruz)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

COMPANY
RESOURCES
FOLLOW
Top Bottom