West Virginia is 100% flipped, that's 51 R locked in to start.
Montana is >80% chance flipping R, most likely at 52 R.
Ohio is basically 50/50 right now, call it 52.5 R
Michigan, PA, Wisconsin latest polls are leaning to stay D, but only at 60-70% odds right now - better than 50% chance one of these flips, call it 53 R
AZ, NV looking pretty solid D now, >80% safe
TX is probably ~70% chance of staying Cruz
FL is also possibly in play, but also probably ~70% chance of staying R, but combination of hurricane and abortion amendment might make this interesting.
My optimistic forecast is at 51 R, with Dems losing only WV and Montana, while stealing Florida. And unfortunately Cruz surviving yet again (Texas has done a masterful job in suppressing minority voters and choosing who is allowed to vote, making polls significantly overstate odds of beating Cruz)