Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[fskimospy]

This article broke my brain/did my head in. Couldn't understand the point it was making. Psephology is not my strong point, I guess. All I'm left with is the thought that the election is still wide open and too close to call.

A Florida Poll That Should Change the Way You Look at the Election

A big Trump lead in the state paradoxically adds to evidence of a smaller Electoral College edge for him. And a choice by pollsters may be causing them to miss state shifts.

www.nytimes.com

Edit - also, the EC system is really stupid. It's like everyone votes, then the result is used as the seed for some sort of random-number-generator.

The EC was made to protect slavery. Unfortunately when we abolished slavery we forgot to abolish the other parts of our system designed to promote minority rule.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

But will it do any good?

Kristin Chenoweth, Audra McDonald and Kelli O'Hara join livestreamed 'Broadway Rallies for Kamala'​

ABC News|20 hours ago
Anne Hathaway, Kelli O'Hara, Kristin Chenoweth and Audra McDonald and other stars of stage and screen are set for a campaign rally for Kamala Harris in New York City next week Stars of stage and screen — including Anne Hathaway, Kelli O'Hara, Kristin ...

 

[Indus]

The EC was made to protect slavery. Unfortunately when we abolished slavery we forgot to abolish the other parts of our system designed to promote minority rule.

Unfortunately there will always be a feeling of the tyranny of the majority. We desperately need Proportional Representation and to eliminate the most deliberatively divisive political body in the entire world!

 

[fskimospy]

Unfortunately there will always be a feeling of the tyranny of the majority. We desperately need Proportional Representation and to eliminate the Senate which is the most deliberatively divisive political body in the entire world!

The bill of rights is essentially what exists to protect against the tyranny of the majority.

The main threat today is the tyranny of the minority. David Frum of all people was right when he said if conservatives realize they can no longer achieve their agenda through democratic means they will not abandon conservatism, they will abandon democracy.

Turns out that was awfully prophetic.

 

[Zorba]

Going out on a limb, I don't believe he's "Russian", or even a secret Trumper. I just don't see that in either of those scenarios he'd bother continuing with it given that there's no sign of it having whatever 'demoralisation' effect it, in that scenario, would be supposed to have.

Seems more likely he's just pathologically pessimistic, or anxious, by nature.

Just seems like a bunch of sports fans I know. Honestly a lot more of the time I feel just as pessimistic as he is.

 

[Zorba]

Isn't national divorce the solution?

I want to be happy instead of always being angry/ depressed.. just keep your crazy shit in your crazy states.

National divorce is exactly what Putin is hoping for.

 

[Indus]

National divorce is exactly what Putin is hoping for.

I know that but at some point the YOLO generation has a need for happiness more than us just killing each other in mass shootings!

 

[fskimospy]

National divorce is exactly what Putin is hoping for.

I don’t think a national divorce is a viable solution for like ten reasons. I do think a devolvement to more regional autonomy might be possible.

I think the bargain is basically that blue states keep giving red states money in exchange for red states allowing blue states to keep being normal and productive.

 

[Muse]

Meanwhile the economy is so miserably terribly failing that the S&P has set yet another record, having beaten the one that was set just a few days ago.

Yup, failed country, I knows cuz Trump said so just the other day. And of course, he's the last and only word on every and anything because, well, because he's so declarational. And Orban said he's the best. And Putin is toast if Trump loses. And so's Trump.

 

[MrSquished]

The US is doomed to fail as long as things like the EC and the imbalance Senate and House of Representatives exist. And also the crazy supreme Court rules. And it's impossible to change most of those things without changing the Constitution. And then again that's not happening because of the prevalence of regressive red states especially small population ones.

I mean we're damned if we do we're damned if we don't

 

[esquared]

I don’t think a national divorce is a viable solution for like ten reasons. I do think a devolvement to more regional autonomy might be possible.

I think the bargain is basically that blue states keep giving red states money in exchange for red states allowing blue states to keep being normal and productive.

So bribery and blackmail then.
Seems so Mafioso-like.

 

[cytg111]

Yea but that is not how power hungry people think and operate. Its for all the marbles.

 

[Muse]

I know that but at some point the YOLO generation has a need for happiness more than us just killing each other in mass shootings!

That's pretty funny. I had to look this up believe it or not...

YOLO is an acronym that stands for "you only live once." Often used when doing something risky or spontaneous. For instance, you may hear your child say, "I'm gonna do a backflip into the pool — YOLO!"

True story: A few years after our family moved into our 2nd house after moving to CA from NYC, my parents had a 20x40' pool built in the back yard. My sister (almost 6 years younger than me) and her friends used to dive off the diving board but I never tried. One day at age 19-20, I was out at the pool, alone, and decided I was going to do it. I dove off that diving board, which was maybe 3-4 feet above the water, but quite springy. I flipped in awkwardly, was bent over backward and something snapped in my lower back. I went to doctors, had physical therapy, took medications. I'm not sure I ever got over it completely. One thing is for sure, it was a dumb move. I've never gotten on a diving board again. I watch competitive diving in awe, frankly.

 

[jdubs03]

Another day in upside down world!

Un.fucking.real.

 

[manly]

Another day in upside down world!
View attachment 109043
Un.fucking.real.

Yeah the August euphoria has definitely degraded into a "quagmire." It's a bit crazy (and scary and sad) how tight WI and PA are. I like Tim Walz, but it does make you wonder a bit how Josh Shapiro would have played out.

One thing I read last night is that betting markets have rarely been wrong about the U.S. presidential election (about 150 year history of betting in the UK on our elections). Over a century and a half, they've only missed twice. The first time was Truman vs Dewey (which was a coin flip). The other time was 2016 when Clinton was 80% to win in the betting markets.

Right now DJT is about 52% in the betting markets; and as Nate Silver put it recently, he expects this tight affair to continue until election day.

 

[Jaskalas]

Depends on your definition of end. If you are thinking about the shitshow that was Russia pre invasion, dictatorship and compliant populace and zero personal rights etc ... Then yea.

Was thinking of the fascist need to expand and conquer.
Suppress your own people, and then step out to suppress others.

How genocide is once against occurring in Europe. America has only avoided the worst outcomes of human nature due to our strong institutions at the dawn of the 20th century. Our golden era. Protections that MAGA has exposed as history. Done and dusted. Our people no longer value being different from Nazi Germany or any other form of one party tyranny. By our nature we will seek to become evil.

Note, even if Trump loses in 2024. MAGA will still exist. It has become our opposition party.

 

[fskimospy]

So bribery and blackmail then.
Seems so Mafioso-like.

Not saying it’s good, it just might be the best of a set of bad options.

 

[fskimospy]

Yeah the August euphoria has definitely degraded into a "quagmire." It's a bit crazy (and scary and sad) how tight WI and PA are. I like Tim Walz, but it does make you wonder a bit how Josh Shapiro would have played out.

One thing I read last night is that betting markets have rarely been wrong about the U.S. presidential election (about 150 year history of betting in the UK on our elections). Over a century and a half, they've only missed twice. The first time was Truman vs Dewey (which was a coin flip). The other time was 2016 when Clinton was 80% to win in the betting markets.

Right now DJT is about 52% in the betting markets; and as Nate Silver put it recently, he expects this tight affair to continue until election day.

Robust, liquid betting markets for this are a very new innovation and arguably now they are still sort of crap. My first thought is 150 years ago if you were betting on election results you probably had a hand in determining them.

 

[jdubs03]

Just a reminder of this EC bias we’ve been talking about.

 

[cytg111]

There is the more likely Trump win we've been talking about but is never included when we are discussing polling...

The decision comes down to one or two swing states that Harris is projected to win or straight up wins, but Republican election officials pulls the trigger and delays certification, it ends up before the SC and they pull a Gore.

Winner Winner Orange Dinner.

 

[Brainonska511]

I know that but at some point the YOLO generation has a need for happiness more than us just killing each other in mass shootings!

How does a national divorce fix anything when you have large populations of Republicans living in so-called blue states and Democrats living in red states? Are you so willing to abandon your fellow countryman in a red state because electoralism is difficult?

 

[Indus]

Just a reminder of this EC bias we’ve been talking about.
View attachment 109045

The biggest bias is the fact that people and left wing media still think if people found out something new and disgusting about Former President Dumbass Turd, that his support would go away! It's just not happening. His support is more or less as indestructible as the Egyptian Pyramids.

You've got to people who truly don't care for him even if they don't agree with Dems heart and soul.

 

[Indus]

How does a national divorce fix anything when you have large populations of Republicans living in so-called blue states and Democrats living in red states? Are you so willing to abandon your fellow countryman in a red state because electoralism is difficult?

I addressed this already..

Just look at poor migrants.. they walk barefoot from Venezuela to the southern border.

Hope is stronger than fear.. if they have the hope that their life will be better in a blue state.. they can move!

 

[Brainonska511]

I addressed this already..

Just look at poor migrants.. they walk barefoot from Venezuela to the southern border.

Hope is stronger than fear.. if they have the hope that their life will be better in a blue state.. they can move!

So a mass migration crisis? Sounds awful.

 

[Indus]

So a mass migration crisis? Sounds awful.

Maybe we need to realize our current state is more awful than the mass migration crisis would be.

Do you see Greeks and Turks killing each other now? How about the Armenian Genocide?

We have to learn from history.. sometimes 2 sides just don't get along and we need partition to move on with our lives.