zinfamous
No Lifer
- Jul 12, 2006
- 111,729
- 31,094
- 146
When are you ever going to criticize Trump for only going after his always-Trumpers? It's his entire strategy.
When you are going to criticize Trump for picking the worst, or maybe 2nd-worst VP candidate in history?
When are you going to criticize Trump...for anything?
You know your "analysis" of things that you clearly don't understand would probably hold some sort of weight around here if you actually made an attempt to look at both sides of this thing, but all you have ever done, for 8 years, is come in here and stump for Trump--Vlad's anointed candidate for the US presidency.
One wonders why this is...actually, no one wonders why this is. You are preposterously transparent.
Muse
Lifer
- Jul 11, 2001
- 40,505
- 9,990
- 136
Fenixgoon
Lifer
- Jun 30, 2003
- 33,143
- 12,568
- 136
It's only as illegal as much as someone is willing to enforce the law. And Trump and Musk have not really been held to account in that respect. So why would they stop now?
Fanatical Meat
Lifer
- Feb 4, 2009
- 35,862
- 17,402
- 136
Agreed, nothing will happen of it except months from now we will learn Elon never selected any winners.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,102
- 45,090
- 136
I believe they will simply claim that their incentive was to register people to vote, not to influence who they vote for.
Because c'mon, we know there are different rules for them.
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K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,102
- 45,090
- 136
Offering people entry into a lottery that required them to register to vote appears to be pretty clearly illegal based on what I've read.
Sure the rich white dude "oops didn't know I couldn't commit a felony" tactic often works but he'll probably stop if he gets a word from his lawyers that he's racking up potential prison time if it doesn't.
Anyway voter registration in PA ends tomorrow so it seems just a little bit late as a tactic.
I know you Blueanons have your Russia blinders on 24/7, but are you sure you're not confusing me with someone else? I haven't even posted in the politics section for 8 years, and most of it is doomer stuff about what's coming next. At this point I have to conclude that you're just a troll.
I would temper some of the assumptions that huge early turnout favors Dems...seems that GOP's ground game may be working well in some areas:
You have to admit it’s a bit weird how you constantly make wrong predictions and they are always wrong in the exact same direction.
Assuming Harris wins I have no doubt that in 2026 you will be here predicting a veto proof Republican supermajority regardless of what the polls say. You will also predict a Republican victory in 2028.
Why do you do this?
- Jan 14, 2013
- 26,060
- 24,366
- 136
Fanatical Meat
Lifer
- Feb 4, 2009
- 35,862
- 17,402
- 136
Agreed, from day one I said he was far too much of a traditionalist. Wrong guy to right now.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,102
- 45,090
- 136
Amid huge changes among voters in both voting method and timing people should be very very careful about drawing any conclusions in any direction. In NV specifically in 2020 there was an enormous operation to get D voters to do mail voting and to mail them as early as possible due to USPS delay concerns. That's not the case this year and the 2022 midterms exhibited similar shifts back.
Edit:
Expanding on this a bit people are going to hear a lot about the Nevada D-R voter registration gap almost closing. This is usually talked about without the context that non-partisan identification has exploded and overtaken both parties in the state. Further complicates analysis a great deal.
Sept 2020 RVs:
Rep 566,265
Dem 654,724
Ind 409,125
Sept 2024 RVs:
Rep 574,270
Dem 593,223
Ind 663,613
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Muse
Lifer
- Jul 11, 2001
- 40,505
- 9,990
- 136
- Jan 14, 2013
- 26,060
- 24,366
- 136
Fenixgoon
Lifer
- Jun 30, 2003
- 33,143
- 12,568
- 136
i mean that's *A* county. and if it's historically red, that's not really surprising. statewide tallies would be more meaningful
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,102
- 45,090
- 136
Clark county is most populous in NV by far and a dem stronghold. Results in Clark and to a lesser extent Washoe basically dictate how the state is going to fall because the rural counties, while very heavily R, are comparatively tiny even combined. What people are not being careful with is that we saw substantial changes to vote timing from 20 to 22 with a lot of D votes coming in late, something that will likely get a lot bigger this year. Not that tens of thousands of voters marking Ds have vanished into thin air.
ivwshane
Lifer
- May 15, 2000
- 33,381
- 16,777
- 136
I’d argue that a rise in independents is a clear loss for republicans. Sure there are disaffected Dems who “both sides”, buts it’s the traditional conservative Republican who really don’t have a home right now. I expect that to affect down ballots as well as they most likely can’t bring themselves to vote for 1/6 deniers.
The fact that Dems are still gaining in registration as opposed to being tied also could indicate that the 7/8 million more votes they got in 2020 will at the very minimum will hold.
More registered voters for republicans along with their losses could indicate that their vote totals of 2020 will probably be maintained as opposed to grow.
Add to that a narcissistic candidate whose emotions are transparent and public and who is increasingly lashing out, spells a big time loss even he can’t spin to make himself look/feel better.
What's weird to me is that I see very, very few signs this time around. Not a single one in my neighborhood of more than 100 houses when I walk the circle.
Down the rural-ish road that leads here, I only saw two and one was for Harris. Usually every single property on that road seems to have a Trump sign out by the road.
Contrast that with MN when I just visited--tons of signs, by far mostly Harris until you got out into the sticks (which I was in, fun when GPS takes you 6 miles on a gravel road....)
That all said, there were somewhere close to zero Biden signs that I saw in 2020 and he (barely) won this county, so who knows what it means. In 2016 and 2020 there were absolute tons of Trump signs in the 'burbs compared to this time. I know I'd be hesitant to have a sign or sticker with the hordes of angry gun-toting stand-your-ground magas here. I'll donate and vote but I'm not eager to paint a target on myself.
Down the rural-ish road that leads here, I only saw two and one was for Harris. Usually every single property on that road seems to have a Trump sign out by the road.
Contrast that with MN when I just visited--tons of signs, by far mostly Harris until you got out into the sticks (which I was in, fun when GPS takes you 6 miles on a gravel road....)
That all said, there were somewhere close to zero Biden signs that I saw in 2020 and he (barely) won this county, so who knows what it means. In 2016 and 2020 there were absolute tons of Trump signs in the 'burbs compared to this time. I know I'd be hesitant to have a sign or sticker with the hordes of angry gun-toting stand-your-ground magas here. I'll donate and vote but I'm not eager to paint a target on myself.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,102
- 45,090
- 136
Non-partisans did side with Clinton in 16 and Biden in 20 but I can't find the margins offhand. Automatic registration has also helped make this figure larger. But it's a huge and growing pool of voters who we don't know with absolute certainly which whey they'll lean in a given cycle though they have AFAIK tended to be mostly younger voters.
K1052
Elite Member
- Aug 21, 2003
- 52,102
- 45,090
- 136
Late candidate switch and the resulting delay of getting certain materials out to supporters probably a factor.
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