Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,147
45,201
136
One major note I've seen in the polls, but not mentioned in the articles about the polls - minority voters continuing to shift toward Trump vs. prior elections. While still overall heavily favoring Democrats, this is a significant number of votes moving to Trump from the Democrat base.

Trump 2016: 28% of Hispanic votes, 6% of Black votes
Trump 2020: 36% of Hispanic votes, 8% of Black votes
Trump 2024 polling: 39% Hispanic, 13% of Black votes

Hispanic and Black voters each make up about 10% of the vote, so the 11% and 7% swings to Trump would be roughly a +3.6 point net swing for Trump in the overall popular vote vs. 2016 - just from Hispanic and Black voters (+1.8 Trump / -1.8 Harris) - and if that polling holds up in reality, is highly likely to make the difference in winning the election for Trump in 2024.

As far as the black vote goes maybe he gets to 10% I think. I'm really kind of skeptical what the national polling cross tabs have been showing as in the 15-20% range for a while when surveys that focus on large samples of only AA voters are finding basically 2020 results.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,181
12,640
136
My wife just said this will be a major problem for Kam:


This is from her official account:


And I don't even know how to reason with her.. I tried showing her..

View attachment 108243

We maybe fucked here gentlemen..
Ah yes, the great double standard where Dems have to be perfect and Republicans can be as shitty as fucking possible.

Also, how did Kamala "get her start" with Diddy. That's about as credible an accusation as the people saying she slept her way to success. Which is to say, those people are full of shit.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,715
6,266
126
Ah yes, the great double standard where Dems have to be perfect and Republicans can be as shitty as fucking possible.

Also, how did Kamala "get her start" with Diddy. That's about as credible an accusation as the people saying she slept her way to success. Which is to say, those people are full of shit.
Even if true, at least she worked for it. Trump's accomplishment was getting shat out the right vagina.
 

Xcobra

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2004
3,675
423
126
One thing I've seen about legal latinos (I wouldn't say all obviously, as I'm included here) is that they think that coming here through the border without papers is the easy route and those here illegally should get to the back of the line to get here legally... But they refuse to acknowledge how dangerous it is to cross borders, deserts, etc. So while yes, they had a different hardship in regards to the bureaucracy of coming here legally (and how long you have to wait), it doesn't invalidate the experience of the border crossers.

With that being said, it is quite easy for them to 'alienate' (pardon the pun) the undocumented ones and buy into the Republican's border stance and rethoric. It's quite toxic. And on top of that, queue in the misogyny/macho, conservative bs and you've got the perfect latino Trumper... I see many Trump signs in central valley in CA from chicanos who probably think the same as the above. It's nuts. And it's disappointing and I feel surrounded by idiots (education, or lack thereof, also plays a massive role). I hope I survive this area 😂
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,699
8,248
136
Two things. Out of so many.

A question:
How soon does everyone think it’ll take for any “moderate”/independent-undecideds would regret their vote for Trump, if he were to win?

and a little venting:
It’s honestly crazy to me that the number 1 priority for voters is the economy and inflation, and yet they will still vote for the guy. It’s like they cannot separate out past events and their root causes with inflation over the past few years. And then not only that, also not consider the guy’s future plans which reputable sources say are worse for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. It’s just so nonsensical.

Don't ask me why people like to vote against their own best interests as Trump's working class minions do, but it does seem that in conjunction with Trump faking his el supremo hancho macho man samurai gladiator persona that attracts the shallow like-minded males of the species, his playing up to the racist sexist homophobes of the nation with sympathetic innuendo and blatant hate and fear rhetoric supersedes their desire for better paying jobs, affordable housing and healthcare, none of which Trump is nowhere near offering to them with the exception that if he does, it's all empty promises that he'll never make good on.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,589
10,032
136
Amazing video, in particular the middle in which Michael Cohen is interviewed, starting at 5:22. Michael Cohen is the very soul of sincerity and intensity. The whole thing is good, watch it!

 
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Feb 4, 2009
35,862
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136
My wife just said this will be a major problem for Kam:


This is from her official account:


And I don't even know how to reason with her.. I tried showing her..

View attachment 108243

We maybe fucked here gentlemen..
That’s not Kamala it’s been edited
That’s also not Diddy
She did send that tweet but it’s from four years ago and it’s the only one.

 
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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,181
12,640
136
That’s not Kamala it’s been edited
That’s also not Diddy
She did send that tweet but it’s from four years ago and it’s the only one.

Thank you
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
15,095
9,970
136
I'd heard this point before, I know it was made often when he first ran for President, but it's never really been clear to me how rigourous or not the calculation was, and had kind-of mentally discounted it. But it seems like an important point, that the guy has a talent for actively _destroying_ wealth. Exemplifies that adage about "best way to make a small fortune - start with a large one".


Donald Trump started his career at the end of the 1970s, financed by his father Fred Trump. Over the years this transfer of wealth added up to around $500m in today’s money in gifts. My rough calculations say that, had he simply taken the money, leveraged it not imprudently, and passively invested it in Manhattan real estate – gone to parties, womanised, played golf, collected his rent cheques and reinvested them – his fortune could have amounted to more than $80bn by the time he ascended to the presidency in 2017.

And yet Trump was not worth $80bn in 2017. Instead, Forbes pegged him at $2.5bn – which, given the difficulties of valuing and accounting for real estate, is really anything between $5bn (£4bn) and zero (or less). It is in this sense that Pulitzer prize-winning New York Times reporters Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig call Trump a “loser”. He is indeed one of the world’s biggest losers. By trying to run a business, rather than just kicking back and letting the rising tide of his chosen sector lift his wealth beyond the moon, he managed to destroy the vast majority of his potential net worth.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,749
31,117
146
Ah yes, the great double standard where Dems have to be perfect and Republicans can be as shitty as fucking possible.

Also, how did Kamala "get her start" with Diddy. That's about as credible an accusation as the people saying she slept her way to success. Which is to say, those people are full of shit.

It's the "she dated one famous black guy, therefore she must be associated with this other famous black guy" argument.

It's something that very stupid people think.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,766
10,957
136
That’s not Kamala it’s been edited
That’s also not Diddy
She did send that tweet but it’s from four years ago and it’s the only one.


Hmm I 'll try discussing that with her..
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,204
3,987
136
what happened to you?
just like Samuel Alito, blames it on his wife. 🤣


It's the "she dated one famous black guy, therefore she must be associated with this other famous black guy" argument.

It's something that very stupid people think.
to morons or racists, Black folks all look alike?

(Montel Williams looks nothing like P. Diddy, nor was Williams ever particularly famous.)
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,766
10,957
136
just like Samuel Alito, blames it on his wife. 🤣

She's not my slave.. she's allowed to have her own opinion.

As it so happens I do see her viewpoint.. she's not talking about herself. You know as well as I do there will be idiots who latch onto that and will find faults with our nominee.

But even if it's not that.. we have plenty of this years bernie bros.. voters who for whatever reason don't like someone because they don't meet 100% of their positions.. this year it's Gaza.

She clearly has a point as Trump voters will just vote for him regardless.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,204
3,987
136
She's not my slave.. she's allowed to have her own opinion.

As it so happens I do see her viewpoint.. she's not talking about herself. You know as well as I do there will be idiots who latch onto that and will find faults with our nominee.

But even if it's not that.. we have plenty of this years bernie bros.. voters who for whatever reason don't like someone because they don't meet 100% of their positions.. this year it's Gaza.

She clearly has a point as Trump voters will just vote for him regardless.
It's nice to see there's no monopoly on moronic opinions within your household.
 
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