Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[pmv]

Nice to see Project 2025/Agenda 47 specifically called out there.

What's "Agenda 47"? Is it anything to do with this guy?

 

[nakedfrog]

What's "Agenda 47"? Is it anything to do with this guy?

That's the "official" Trump platform should he win the election, as opposed to the Project 2025 marching orders from the Heritage Foundation.

Agenda 47 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Plans to build ten new "Freedom Cities" on federal land, invest in flying cars, mass deportation of illegal immigrants, deploying the National Guard to "disorderly" liberal cities, ending birthright citizenship... and generally reforming the federal government and education system into a system more pleasing to his Greatness' liking.

 

[Indus]

That's the "official" Trump platform should he win the election, as opposed to the Project 2025 marching orders from the Heritage Foundation.

Agenda 47 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Plans to build ten new "Freedom Cities" on federal land, invest in flying cars, mass deportation of illegal immigrants, deploying the National Guard to "disorderly" liberal cities, ending birthright citizenship... and generally reforming the federal government and education system into a system more pleasing to his Greatness' liking.

The force is definitely weak within this one.

 

[manly]

We know it's all about the 7 battleground states to decide the EC, and we shouldn't trip over one or two polls but the latest from CNN is devastating.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/polls-trump-harris-presidential-election/index.html

(Remember Harris needs to be approx. up 3% in the national PV to likely win the EC.)

 

[brycejones]

We know it's all about the 7 battleground states to decide the EC, and we shouldn't trip over one or two polls but the latest from CNN is devastating.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/polls-trump-harris-presidential-election/index.html

(Remember Harris needs to be approx. up 3% in the national PV to likely win the EC.)

We need Trump so he can Make Late Night Great Again by bringing back Johnny Carson. Kamala and the woke Democrats won't do that for you.

 

[Indus]

We know it's all about the 7 battleground states to decide the EC, and we shouldn't trip over one or two polls but the latest from CNN is devastating.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/polls-trump-harris-presidential-election/index.html

(Remember Harris needs to be approx. up 3% in the national PV to likely win the EC.)

Stop listening to CONSERVATERRORIST NEWS NETWORK.

IPSOS is way more reliable and doesn't lean one way or the other.

 

[nakedfrog]

Hm, a person still using Twitter casting judgement on the media choices of others

 

[Stokely]

I've stopped checking CNN (site, not cable) as my morning quick check of news. It is the equivalent of a forum troll trying to rile people up. More and more it's doing its old Crossfire thing, clickbait stuff on "both sides" that is just there to get your attention. Then you find often that there's not much there, there.

Not saying that poll is accurate or not, just saying that CNN is awful. After ABC dared to actually fact-check the orange turd I switch to them (and others) for morning news.

 

[jdubs03]

In that CNN poll there it seems strange that if the result for Independents is 45–41 for Harris, then one would think the overall result would be roughly 3 to 4 points in favor of Harris as well. So without looking, it would seem that the poll skews right. Because I refuse to believe that more Democrats would indicate that they would vote for Trump then Republicans would indicate that they would vote for Harris.

 

[manly]

In that CNN poll there it seems strange that if the result for Independents is 45–41 for Harris, then one would think the overall result would be roughly 3 to 4 points in favor of Harris as well. So without looking, it would seem that the poll skews right. Because I refuse to believe that more Democrats would indicate that they would vote for Trump then Republicans would indicate that they would vote for Harris.

Like I said, we shouldn't overreact to a couple bad polls (NYT/Siena and CNN/SSRS). The real story is largely unchanged: the 7 battleground states are ALL virtually dead heats (within the MOE). This is sobering considering that Harris crushed Trump in the debate, and has plenty of operational momentum (fund raising and ad buys).

Having said that, independents are perhaps just 10% of the electorate (just a guesstimate). So 45-41 independents for Harris can be consistent with an overall 1 point lead.

For reference, according to exit polls (Pew Research), Biden won independents 52-43 four years ago. And his overall PV margin was about +4.5.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Kam should have a clear 10 point lead by now across the board. There should be no question, no doubt.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Kam should have a clear 10 point lead by now across the board. There should be no question, no doubt.

Yet there is doubt

 

[trenchfoot]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1838384672595657175

Better start packing ramen for the trip..

So here's Trump talking smack about Americans who criticize his hand picked stooges in the SCOTUS while simultaneously doing his own share of criticizing judges that are adjudicating his own criminal behavior.

Simply....can't....make....this....shit....up because it's too incredible to imagine or too much of a comedy act to take seriously. He really does come from Dumbfuckistan and it looks like he's trying really hard to be the dumbest idgit out of there.

 

[MrSquished]

I'm going to continue to go with the polls are not representative of the turnout that is going to really push Kamala to win this election from various parts of the electorate. I'm sticking with it both because I think there is a good chance it is true, and also, because otherwise we are fucked lol

 

[Moonbeam]

Yet there is doubt

Doubt is fear. Why wouldn't there be doubt? Do the people in Trump World know they are voting for him because he is promising security for servility or are they just seeing the security part. Trump voters are suffering from Stockholm Syndrome. Do you think they know it. Does anybody tell them? Are you just expressing your fear of doubt or do you have an answer to it? Who seeks a cure to a mental needless mental condition they do not know they have?

 

[K1052]

I'm going to continue to go with the polls are not representative of the turnout that is going to really push Kamala to win this election from various parts of the electorate. I'm sticking with it both because I think there is a good chance it is true, and also, because otherwise we are fucked lol

It is a possibility, which I lean in the direction of, that some pollsters are modeling an electorate that is too R in composition for the race we have now. No way to really know until the election arrives. If one wants to be a cross tab diver that SSRS poll only shows Harris up with 18-34s by 12 points and Trump going from 8% with AA voters in 2020 to 16% now....things that I am preeeeety skeptical of.

 

[Indus]

I'm going to continue to go with the polls are not representative of the turnout that is going to really push Kamala to win this election from various parts of the electorate. I'm sticking with it both because I think there is a good chance it is true, and also, because otherwise we are fucked lol

We're fucked regardless..

If you think Kam wins in a landslide you're mistaken.

Every poll is telling us it's going to be close and Trump's entire plan isn't to win.. it's to make sure Dems don't win.

As long as they delay certification, raise doubts and have a 6-3 court, they'll count on Biden being old, senile and respecting their shenanigans so Trump wins.

 

[jdubs03]

We're fucked regardless..

If you think Kam wins in a landslide you're mistaken.

Every poll is telling us it's going to be close and Trump's entire plan isn't to win.. it's to make sure Dems don't win.

As long as they delay certification, raise doubts and have a 6-3 court, they'll count on Biden being old, senile and respecting their shenanigans so Trump wins.

Then comes a constitutional crisis and riots in the streets. Anarchy will rein.

But I don’t think that is the outcome. The only state those shenanigans can be attempted (and obviously, as we know, have already been done stupidly) are in Georgia. The other battleground states thankfully have sane leadership in their secretary of states who overseeing the election process.

 

[BoomerD]

Dis gon be good...

Haitian immigrant group calls for arrest warrants for Trump and Vance in Ohio

Haitian Bridge Alliance files criminal charges after local prosecutors take no action in response to racist remarks

www.theguardian.com

The Haitian Bridge Alliance, a non-profit organization that “provides migrants and immigrants with humanitarian, legal and social services”, filed criminal charges against Donald Trump and JD Vance over their inflammatory, racist remarks about Haitian immigrants. The rhetoric has led to threats of violence in Springfield, Ohio, including more than 30 bomb threats, forced evacuations of schools and government buildings and violence against Haitians in the city.

I don't expect anything to come of it...but it's funny as hell to me that they're even trying.

 

[K1052]

Then comes a constitutional crisis and riots in the streets. Anarchy will rein.

But I don’t think that is the outcome. The only state those shenanigans can be attempted (and obviously, as we know, have already been done stupidly) are in Georgia. The other battleground states thankfully have sane leadership in their secretary of states who over seeking the election process.

The secretaries of state and governors of the swing states are either all Ds or sane people (like Kemp). I think the odds of a state not certifying are low.

If conservatives on SCOTUS try to steal an election for Trump that he clearly did not win then Biden should make some open seats on that court through the means provided to him by that very body.

 

[Indus]

Then comes a constitutional crisis and riots in the streets. Anarchy will rein.

But I don’t think that is the outcome. The only state those shenanigans can be attempted (and obviously, as we know, have already been done stupidly) are in Georgia. The other battleground states thankfully have sane leadership in their secretary of states who over seeking the election process.

There were no riots in the streets.. Anarchy..

Did you forget what happened in 2000?

The Dems gave up for the "good of the country". And Trump is a madman willing to burn it.

 

[jdubs03]

There were no riots in the streets.. Anarchy..

Did you forget what happened in 2000?

The Dems gave up for the "good of the country". And Trump is a madman willing to burn it.

Yeah but the political environment wasn’t nearly as polarized back then. And George W. Bush wasn’t considered a threat to the literal foundations of American democracy. The situations aren’t really analogous.

We know what Trump tried to do and what he is trying to do again. So if the Supreme Court tries some shady shit everyone will know. And in that type of situation, it would be up to Biden to declare some sort of executive order to deal with the situation. I don’t really know where that would go or what would happen, but I just can’t see that happening.

On the topic of 2000 though I watched a video last week posted by Alan Lichtman about how many votes in Florida were rejected based on race and it was wild how that skewed towards Democratic voters (primarily African-Americans). I still don’t really understand why Gore didn’t put up more of a fight, and the Supreme Court definitely dropped the ball on doing their due diligence.

 

[Indus]

the Supreme Court definitely dropped the ball on doing their due diligence.

They didn't drop it, they dunked it on Gore's head!

 

[Muse]

Not saying that poll is accurate or not, just saying that CNN is awful. After ABC dared to actually fact-check the orange turd I switch to them (and others) for morning news.

I've been going with ABC for evening news for a few weeks, even before the debate.

 

[Muse]

I'm going to continue to go with the polls are not representative of the turnout that is going to really push Kamala to win this election from various parts of the electorate. I'm sticking with it both because I think there is a good chance it is true, and also, because otherwise we are fucked lol

Alan Lichtman said the polls don't tell the story.