Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[uzzi38]

Technically, the renewed push roadmap started in 2019.

2019 = 10nm HVM
2021 = 7nm HVM
2023 = 5nm HVM
2025 = 3nm HVM
2027 = 2nm HVM
2029 = 1.4nm HVM

Two years away, we will be entering 5nm territory from Intel.

Maybe you misread what was said. 7nm desktop chips will not exist on the market until at least 2 years from now.

Stating when 7nm begins HVM is irrelevant if products on the node aren't of the aforementionned category of desktop CPUs.

 

[NostaSeronx]

7nm desktop chips will not exist on the market until at least 2 years from now.

imho, the first consumer desktop 7nm CPU will be in a MCP config and will probably be on an element AIB. Which will probably launch sooner than later as a Xeon Element, with a micro-server scale element-compatible case. (2 top-left eles, 2 bottom-left eles, 2 top-right eles, 2 bottom-right eles replacing the traditional 8P motherboard // CXL crossbar per eight element + UPI 2.x per two-element + Gen-Z to interconnect multiple Xeon Element clusters in a rack.)

Aftermarket Element-compatible multi-wide case.
Aftermarket Element-compatible 3-wide >250W heatsink/cooler
Aftermarket Element-board with more than one ATX12/EPS12

New aged, simple PL2 tweaked overclocking.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Technically Intel has been producing 7nm consumer CPUs since 2017. You couldn't realistically buy one though, and if you could, you'd regret it.

 

[IntelUser2000]

6GHz for 5nm, maybe?

That's almost certainly never happening. At 4.5GHz-plus frequencies CPUs just run into serious thermal issues that can't be solved using air cooling. That's why both AMD and Intel's high clocking CPUs are using nearly 200W to do so. At 6GHz it might be 500-700W.

And we only got to 200W because we have 2.5lbs air coolers and more mainstream water cooling.

We have ultrabooks that weigh 2lbs, and we have CPU coolers that weigh more than that. 😀

I don't have a problem with Intel's progress with TGL, at least as far as we know based on base clocks & those inventory stocks which are presumably twice the volume ICL had prior to launch.

I don't believe the top clocks will impress. However, overall it looks pretty nice. Tigerlake has 10% higher clocks while its IccMax has been reduced by 15-20%.

I felt that with post Kabylake CPUs, they were really pushing the limits of 14nm. Tigerlake's IccMax figures are much more sane.

 

[Cardyak]

That's almost certainly never happening. At 4.5GHz-plus frequencies CPUs just run into serious thermal issues that can't be solved using air cooling. That's why both AMD and Intel's high clocking CPUs are using nearly 200W to do so. At 6GHz it might be 500-700W.

In the short term I think you're correct. But in the long term there are many many innovations that can be implemented to mitigate heat issues. More exotic materials can be explored, and Jim Keller himself has said that Intel is investing huge amounts of research into this field, and that we'll see "interesting" things over the next decade.

 

[IntelUser2000]

In the short term I think you're correct. But in the long term there are many many innovations that can be implemented to mitigate heat issues.

That doesn't change the fact that its just a waste to use that much power for so little gain.

Scientists have lot less control over the material world we live in than people think.

 

[liad]

Tigerlake's IccMax figures are much more sane.

How would you know that?

 

[mikk]

A new listing have appeared in the graphics driver: it's Meteor Lake.

LAKEFIELD_R
TIGERLAKE_LP
RYEFIELD
ROCKETLAKE
ALDERLAKE_S
ALDERLAKE_P
TIGERLAKE_HP
METEORLAKE

I'm not sure where all this clock speed pessimism is coming from, and I think Tiger Lake should help align expectations accordingly. My personal stake in the ground is 4.8GHz (ignoring TVB) if anyone wants a juicy quote for their signature.

No, I think the question isn't whether they'll get back to 5GHz, but rather if and when they'll go beyond that. 6GHz for 5nm, maybe?

Do you refer to Singlethread of multithread (sustained clock speed). As for singlethread something in the 4.5 Ghz-4.7 Ghz range might not be too far-fetched for the upper Tigerlake-U models. We have had A0/B0 stepping models with 2.7/4.3 Ghz while the recently leaked QS models have a higher base of 2.8 Ghz and 3.0 Ghz (the faster i7 ones), I have to assume the singlethread clock speed has been improved as well. As for multithread we should wait, this can vary from device to device.

 

[uzzi38]

A new listing have appeared in the graphics driver: it's Meteor Lake.

Uh, if memory serves me correctly it used to say "Future" or something like that instead of Meteor Lake previously, didn't it?

Any mention on if it's Gen12 or Gen13 graphics?

 

[Dayman1225]

Uh, if memory serves me correctly it used to say "Future" or something like that instead of Meteor Lake previously, didn't it?

Any mention on if it's Gen12 or Gen13 graphics?

For what should be a H2'22 part, it better be Gen13

 

[vstar]

Doesn't the existence of PVC kits suggest that the 7nm process is well on its way?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1253269932701134849

 

[Dayman1225]

Doesn't the existence of PVC kits suggest that the 7nm process is well on its way?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1253269932701134849

At the very least it suggests they have some form of silicon back

 

[vstar]

At the very least it suggests they have some form of silicon back

I am aware that Fab 42 in Chandler AZ will be ramping 7 nm moving forward, but do you know the other fabs that will have 7nm production going on?

 

[Dayman1225]

I am aware that Fab 42 in Chandler AZ will be ramping 7 nm moving forward, but do you know the other fabs that will have 7nm production going on?

The official comment is only about Fab42 but I imagine they will upgrade the fab in Ireland or Israel to 7nm.

 

[lobz]

I believe he's simply saying that because 7nm is just around the corner, 10nm's impact window is closing so it won't be as productive as their previous nodes. This makes a lot of sense, but I expect 10nm to continue improving, ala 14nm, and help carry Intel's future chip loads.
Even though 10nm has proven to be such a pain for Intel, I'm happy they didn't scrap it because I think it's the node that's positioned to combine the highest density/frequency, since it's expected that 7nm and below should not clock as high due to overall heat and hotspots arising from the higher densities. I think the positive news on 10nm in recent weeks is going to continue as Intel continues to tweak the node.

Just around the corner - that's exactly where I'm shaking my head reading this. More than 2 years in any consumer product is really not just around the corner, otherwise Zen 4 is also just around the corner.

 

[Ajay]

The official comment is only about Fab42 but I imagine they will upgrade the fab in Ireland or Israel to 7nm.

If 7nm is going to fill out the entire stack, doesn't that mean 6-7 fabs? And, in pretty short order too.

 

[IntelUser2000]

As for singlethread something in the 4.5 Ghz-4.7 Ghz range might not be too far-fetched for the upper Tigerlake-U models.

I'm leaning towards 4.3GHz being top clock for the U. Whatever it can achieve at base clocks change totally when looking at peak clocks, when looking at 4-plus GHz frequencies.*

I expect similar to Kabylake. A 28W model has 3.5GHz base clocks and 4GHz Turbo clocks. We could see 3.3-3.5GHz for base but I expect peak to remain similar at 4.3GHz(maybe 4.2GHz for 15W).

What's more important is that its IccMax came down while achieving higher frequencies. So they have more control over the chip, and I bet its V/F curves are less steep, alowing higher end of the frequency to use less power compared to Icelake. Icelake's 10nm seems great at low frequencies. But that quickly reverses at higher speeds.

*At such frequencies its almost nothing to do with capabilities of the process and design and almost entirely up to maturity, tweaking, and jacking up thermals. Had Intel ended 14nm reign with Skylake I doubt we'd have seen above 4.5GHz.


@Cardyak Further addressing your points, recently engineers(such as from AMD) said expect future processes to decrease in clocks.

 

[Exist50]

Do you refer to Singlethread of multithread (sustained clock speed). As for singlethread something in the 4.5 Ghz-4.7 Ghz range might not be too far-fetched for the upper Tigerlake-U models. We have had A0/B0 stepping models with 2.7/4.3 Ghz while the recently leaked QS models have a higher base of 2.8 Ghz and 3.0 Ghz (the faster i7 ones), I have to assume the singlethread clock speed has been improved as well. As for multithread we should wait, this can vary from device to device.

I was referring to single thread boost frequency, of course. I expect to be called an optimist for saying even that much. 4.8GHz multicore would be delusional. But we should see soon enough.

I expect similar to Kabylake. A 28W model has 3.5GHz base clocks and 4GHz Turbo clocks.

I don't see that happening for several reasons. They haven't had a gap that small since they started inflating PL2. With increased competitive pressure, they have no reason to substantially reverse that trend now. Hell, if Willow Cove clocks that poorly, then AMD will undoubtably have the single thread performance crown. Even more generally speaking, such low clocks would mean a continuation of the outright pathetic performance scaling we've seen over the last half a decade or so.

In any case, I'm confident that things won't be that bad. With luck, we'll look back upon these last few years in disgust, as the nadir of single core performance growth.

 

[beginner99]

If 7nm is going to fill out the entire stack, doesn't that mean 6-7 fabs? And, in pretty short order too.

If...

And the answer is pretty sure no. They can use 10nm for desktop for another couple years. I'm going to suggest that desktop is now the last class citizen. Mobile and server gets new process first, desktop lags behind. And for mobile it will also only be part of the lineup. Most will go to servers (CPU and accelerators).

 

[uzzi38]

Intel i225 "Foxville" 2.5GbE PHY Has a Flaw Affecting Performance, "Rocket Lake-S" 2H-2020 Production Confirmed | TechPowerUp}

Very late Q2 2020 or Q1 2021 for Rocket Lake confirmed if this is a real slide. Article talks about production being 2H20, so release will come right at the end or after that.

 

[lobz]

Intel i225 "Foxville" 2.5GbE PHY Has a Flaw Affecting Performance, "Rocket Lake-S" 2H-2020 Production Confirmed | TechPowerUp}

Very late Q2 2020 or Q1 2021 for Rocket Lake confirmed if this is a real slide. Article talks about production being 2H20, so release will come right at the end or after that.

Who in their right mind would buy comet lake then?

 

[DrMrLordX]

Pulling Rocket ahead are they? That's gonna pinch Comet Lake-S pretty badly if true.

Who in their right mind would buy comet lake then?

We haven't seen Rocket Lake-S yet. It may have some . . . issues.

 

[uzzi38]

Pulling Rocket ahead are they? That's gonna pinch Comet Lake-S pretty badly if true.

More like it's actually on-time as opposed to Come-ith Late.

EDIT: Oh and, we have seen it once, on an extremely early stage test board.

 

[lobz]

More like it's actually on-time as opposed to Come-ith Late.

In that case it'd be all the more surprising if Rocket Lake would end up even remotely on-time. I know that the board and the investors are buying the very same obvious crap since 2017's Cannon Lake from quarter to quarter, but why should we?

 

[Dayman1225]

If 7nm is going to fill out the entire stack, doesn't that mean 6-7 fabs? And, in pretty short order too.

No. As of Q4'18 (Last time Intel updated this slide) Intel "only" had 3 14nm Fabs online, though I imagine pretty large fabs at that and since then they have expanded the capacity of those fabs.