Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[mikk]

Nope. Intel slide clearly mentioned that LNL cpu tile is on 18A & other LNL tiles will be built in TSMC.

LNL isn't on 18A, the successor is on 18A. It's too early for LNL being on 18A. You can see it in their rodmap. Left chips belongs to the left node-->external. Right chip belongs to the right node-->beyond. Most people didn't understand this. There is a reason why Intel never mentioned any of their process nodes in context to Lunar Lake.

18A won't come before the end of 2025 for client...maybe Panther Lake. Lunar Lake is supposed to come early 2025 or maybe late 2024.

 

[dullard]

18A won't come before the end of 2025 for client...maybe Panther Lake. Lunar Lake is supposed to come early 2025 or maybe late 2024.

Do you have any info to back that underlined section up? Intel has stated that 18A will be manufacturing ready in H2 2024. I understand that doesn't mean 18A chips will ramp up production in 2024. But do you have any source that says the ramp up won't occur until the end of 2025 for client?

https://spectrum.ieee.org/media-library/five-labelled-blue-bars-with-writing-and-cartoons-of-different-microchips-on-each.jpg?id=32252011&width=866&quality=80

As for Lunar Lake itself, Intel has said this: "Lunar Lake and Beyond – Fueled by its IDM 2.0 strategy, Intel will be using both internal and external process nodes to deliver leadership products." It doesn't connect Lunar Lake to any specific node--internal or external. https://www.intel.com/content/www/u...technology-roadmaps-milestones.html#gs.46hgfp

 

[Geddagod]

Do you have any info to back that underlined section up? Intel has stated that 18A will be manufacturing ready in H2 2024. I understand that doesn't mean 18A chips will ramp up production in 2024. But do you have any source that says the ramp up won't occur until the end of 2025 for client?

https://spectrum.ieee.org/media-library/five-labelled-blue-bars-with-writing-and-cartoons-of-different-microchips-on-each.jpg?id=32252011&width=866&quality=80

As for Lunar Lake itself, Intel has said this: "Lunar Lake and Beyond – Fueled by its IDM 2.0 strategy, Intel will be using both internal and external process nodes to deliver leadership products." It doesn't connect Lunar Lake to any specific node--internal or external. https://www.intel.com/content/www/u...technology-roadmaps-milestones.html#gs.46hgfp

he was going by the order of that picture on the roadmap I posted earlier. It was Lunar Lake and beyond, and the caption under that was External and Intel 18A. So he connected Lunar Lake with External, and Beyond (PTL) with Intel 18A.
Also, Intel 18A might be 'ready to ramp' earlier, but PTL by launching at the end of 2025 follows in line with Intel's usual yearly cadence for client. So it would also make sense to say Intel 18A is going to ramp 2H 2025 for PTL. IIRC Intel hasn't even confirmed the code name Panther Lake officially.

Nope. Intel slide clearly mentioned that LNL cpu tile is on 18A & other LNL tiles will be built in TSMC.

They didn't.
Also, the slide was for CPU tiles only, otherwise why wouldn't TSMC 5nm be listed for MTL? Only external N3, Intel 20A, and Intel 4 were listed for the ARL-MTL section.

 

[A///]

I expect 18a to be in hvm by the end of august 2024. now's not the time for intel and gelsinger to prance around like a group of morons. Each q delay is a slide in earnings that will be harder and harder to crawl back from.

 

[Ajay]

I expect 18a to be in hvm by the end of august 2024. now's not the time for intel and gelsinger to prance around like a group of morons.

2024 in HVM??!!! That doesn't make any sense.

 

[A///]

2024 in HVM??!!! That doesn't make any sense.

Neither does 99% of the crap in this thread.

 

[SiliconFly]

LNL isn't on 18A, the successor is on 18A. It's to early for LNL being on 18A. You can see it in their rodmap. Left chips belongs to the left node-->external. Right chip belongs to the right node-->beyond. Most people didn't understand this. There is a reason why Intel never mentioned any of their process nodes in context to Lunar Lake.

18A won't come before the end of 2025 for client...maybe Panther Lake. Lunar Lake is supposed to come early 2025 or maybe late 2024.

Actually, 18A perfectly aligns with Intel's timetable for LNL. It's not like LNL comes early & 18A later. We can expect LNL on 18A in 2025 H1 if we can believe in what Pat says. In reality, I think LNL (on 18A) in more of a Q3 2025 product.

 

[Saylick]

What's the standard bet here? If you are wrong you eat a can of cat food? Intel will not use TSMC for the CPU tile. If they did it would be a huge admission of failure.

It's on (and viceversa). Like I said, Intel will not use TSMC for the CPU tile. If they did it would be a huge admission of failure.

Aye, that is the standard bet.

I don't remember who, but I believe one person who lost their bet chose Fancy Feast as their punishment wager.



*not this particular flavor, just shown for reference only*

 

[SiliconFly]

Aye, that is the standard bet.

I don't remember who, but I believe one person who lost their bet chose Fancy Feast as their punishment wager.

View attachment 84192

*not this particular flavor, just shown for reference only*

What flavour do you like? I'll get it delivered at your doorstep. Hopefully, will save you some trouble.

 

[Geddagod]

We can expect LNL on 18A in 2025 H1 if we can believe in what Pat says. In reality, I think LNL (on 18A) in more of a Q3 2025 product.

Pat claimed LNL will release in 2024.

 

[SiliconFly]

Pat claimed LNL will release in 2024.

Pat claimed 18A will follow 20A very quickly at the end of 2024 itself. But I don't think I can believe that either. 2025 H1 sounds more reasonable.

 

[Saylick]

What flavour do you like? I'll get it delivered at your doorstep. Hopefully, will save you some trouble.

Why are you replying to me? Your wager is with @Thunder 57 . I'm just here to enjoy the spectacle.

 

[Thunder 57]

Aye, that is the standard bet.

I don't remember who, but I believe one person who lost their bet chose Fancy Feast as their punishment wager.

View attachment 84192

*not this particular flavor, just shown for reference only*

I don't get it, we're betting the same thing.

 

[eek2121]

18A refers to the successor of LNL and also the slide refers to the CPU tile, you can see it on Meteor Lake and by the fact there are no GPU tile nodes included like TSMC N5 and N4 for MTL+ARL. eek2121 is just wrong on this.

This is what the slide says when it comes to the CPU tile:

Meteor Lake= Intel 4
Arrow Lake= Intel 20A+TSMC N3

Lunar Lake= External
Beyond= 18A

You are reading too much into the slides that are meant for little more than marketing.

he was going by the order of that picture on the roadmap I posted earlier. It was Lunar Lake and beyond, and the caption under that was External and Intel 18A. So he connected Lunar Lake with External, and Beyond (PTL) with Intel 18A.
Also, Intel 18A might be 'ready to ramp' earlier, but PTL by launching at the end of 2025 follows in line with Intel's usual yearly cadence for client. So it would also make sense to say Intel 18A is going to ramp 2H 2025 for PTL. IIRC Intel hasn't even confirmed the code name Panther Lake officially.

They didn't.
Also, the slide was for CPU tiles only, otherwise why wouldn't TSMC 5nm be listed for MTL? Only external N3, Intel 20A, and Intel 4 were listed for the ARL-MTL section.

So are you.

 

[Geddagod]

You are reading too much into the slides that are meant for little more than marketing.

So I'm reading too much into the slides released by Intel themselves about future products? My bad /s
What should I be looking at then? Because the only argument against the 3nm CPU tiles for ARL rumor I have seen is "Intel is going to look bad"
Also I forgot to add Adored to that list of leakers who claim some ARL CPU tile is going to be on N3, based of that leaked development schedule for ARL document he leaked a while back.

So are you.

I mean yes, but the guy I was responding to asked Mikk what he was referencing to, not me.
But I also added a more wholistic reasoning beyond just the order of the roadmap in my comment.

 

[mikk]

Do you have any info to back that underlined section up? Intel has stated that 18A will be manufacturing ready in H2 2024. I understand that doesn't mean 18A chips will ramp up production in 2024. But do you have any source that says the ramp up won't occur until the end of 2025 for client?

https://spectrum.ieee.org/media-library/five-labelled-blue-bars-with-writing-and-cartoons-of-different-microchips-on-each.jpg?id=32252011&width=866&quality=80

Manufacturing ready doesn't tell much. Intel 4 is manufacturing ready since H2 2023 and see when we get the first chips - 1 year later. It's the same with intel 20A, best case late 2024 for the first chips when Arrow Lake-S arrives. The lead vehicle for Intel 18A is Clearwater Forest in 2025, if all goes well maybe the chips are ready in mid 2025 half a year after the first 20A chips. The next possibly client product which could use 18A will be Panther Lake. In a best case they will launch it 1 year after Arrow Lake which means late 2025.

 

[dullard]

Manufacturing ready doesn't tell much. Intel 4 is manufacturing ready since H2 2023 and see when we get the first chips - 1 year later. It's the same with intel 20A, best case late 2024 for the first chips when Arrow Lake-S arrives. The lead vehicle for Intel 18A is Clearwater Forest in 2025, if all goes well maybe the chips are ready in mid 2025 half a year after the first 20A chips. The next possibly client product which could use 18A will be Panther Lake. In a best case they will launch it 1 year after Arrow Lake which means late 2025.

So the answer is, no you don't have anything to back up your statement?

1) Intel usually goes for yearly cycles, but Intel's actual record is far from actually releasing chips yearly. Their consumer launches have ranged from 7.2 months (Rocket Lake) to 19.3 months (Comet Lake) apart. You can't just bank on a yearly release.

2) 20A is supposedly ready H1 2024 and will have Arrow Lake launching H2 2024--only 2 quarters later. So you can't just assume the launch will always be 1 year later after manufacturing ready.

3) Both Intel 3 and 20A are just short stepping stone nodes for Intel. They are planned to be Intel's best node only for half a year. Not yearly.

 

[Abwx]

2) 20A is supposedly ready H1 2024

If we are to read between those lines it wont.

Qualcomm reportedly ditches Intel 20A in favour of TSMC and Samsung

Industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Qualcomm has stopped developing test chips on Intel's 20A node. It will instead look at TSMC's N3E and Samsung Foundry's 3GAP nodes for future products.

www.notebookcheck.net

 

[uzzi38]

If we are to read between those lines it wont.

Qualcomm reportedly ditches Intel 20A in favour of TSMC and Samsung

Industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Qualcomm has stopped developing test chips on Intel's 20A node. It will instead look at TSMC's N3E and Samsung Foundry's 3GAP nodes for future products.

www.notebookcheck.net

AFAIK Qualcomm have been looking at 18A for a while now, not 20A. No clue what this report is about tbh.

Maybe it's true and something was lost in translation (figuratively, not literally) but I wouldn't focus too hard on this personally without knowing for certain.

 

[coercitiv]

I don't get it, we're betting the same thing.

Anyone else interested? It's not a bet, these fine folks are just signing up for a gourmet event!

 

[dullard]

AFAIK Qualcomm have been looking at 18A for a while now, not 20A. No clue what this report is about tbh.

Maybe it's true and something was lost in translation (figuratively, not literally) but I wouldn't focus too hard on this personally without knowing for certain.

Yeah, I have a hard time believing a chip analyst jumping to the conclusion that Qualcomm is going to TSMC or Samsung just because Qualcomm might not be working on 20A. That is especially true since Qualcomm and Intel are on the Department of Defence RAMP-C program (Rapid Assured Microelectronics Prototypes – Commercial) which has the mission to "promote microelectronics supply chain security and accelerate U.S. development of the very best in circuit design, manufacturing, and packaging". https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...-announces-1972-million-for-microelectronics/ And yes, Qualcomm is on the 18A list: https://www.intel.com/content/www/u...ategic-defense-industrial-base-customers.html

Maybe, just maybe, Qualcomm stopped 20A since they are working on 18A. Or, I suppose we somehow must read between the lines that 20A is delayed according to @Abwx ? Which seems more of a reasonable conclusion?

 

[Abwx]

AFAIK Qualcomm have been looking at 18A for a while now, not 20A. No clue what this report is about tbh.

Maybe it's true and something was lost in translation (figuratively, not literally) but I wouldn't focus too hard on this personally without knowing for certain.

Being in an ultra competitive market a firm like Qualcomm has time to market as a primary concern, if they ditch 20A it likely means that 18A wont be ready soon enough for them, the former of the two process being the test vehicle for the latter.

 

[dullard]

Being in an ultra competitive market a firm like Qualcomm has time to market as a primary concern, if they ditch 20A it likely means that 18A wont be ready soon enough for them, the former of the two process being the test vehicle for the latter.

Why doesn't it mean the opposite? Why doesn't it mean that 18A is to be ready on their timeline?

Ultimately, why do so many here jump to the conclusion that any change, any change whatsoever, means that Intel is having problems?

 

[Abwx]

Why doesn't it mean the opposite? Why doesn't it mean that 18A is to be ready on their timeline?

Ultimately, why do so many here jump to the conclusion on any change means that Intel is having problems?

So most difficult could be ready before what is somewhat less difficult..?.

 

[dullard]

So most difficult could be ready before what is somewhat less difficult..?.

Did anyone claim 18A will be ready before 20A? No.