I think, for the first time in my life, I have the confidence to short sell a stock. This discussion here, and the reality of what Intel will likely have for sale by the end of 2021, while TSMC will be solidifying its 5nm lineup and getting 3nm ready, makes it clear.
But then the stock market and big money investors isn't rational. (reminder
Theranos). The risk I see here is 2-fold. Point one as I recently learned is that big OEMs are firmly in intels hand. Want a threadripper workstation? You can really only get it from a more local provider, not from HP, Dell, etc the ones which companies buy from. Have you ever seen a PC at a company that wasn't intel? I can tell you that the IT departement buying the stuff has 0 clue about the actual hardware and has to buy from the OEM they have a contract with. HP doesn't offer threadripper at all, dell has it in their alienware branding but also absent from workstations.
Besides that intel probably has >95% of the laptop market share and since AMD is kind of focusing on server (and desktop as a side effect, that won't change anytime soon because they lack the process node advantage for now). Not to mention that I highly doubt TSMC even has the capacity to supply that many wafers to AMD. AMD should probably fab the APU at a different foundry if they really want to put a dent into intel.
Second point is that Intel wasn't asleep in these 14nm skylake years. They made cannon core, sunny cove, willow cove and golden cove. If all of them add 10% IPC, it adds up. Once intel is on track with 7nm, it will be quickly back to business as usual and I would not be surpirsed of a "conroe light" moment.