I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[sportage]

One thing that Trump knows, is that a vaccine will save him in assuring his re-election. And notice even today, Trump has already acted as if THERE IS a vaccine. Trump is about to go full blown vaccine propaganda. Trump will talk about everyone getting the vaccine, talk about mass production of that vaccine, talk about how the experts are working together (under his direction no doubt....as to claim all the credit) working together to produce enough vaccine for every American. Trump has already began to push his fake claim that "his" vaccine is only months away, days away, hours away, as Trump creates the illusion YOU CAN TAKE IT TO THE BANK. Trump has already began to speak of a vaccine as if it existed because to make it up and lie about it will convince his base that this is true. When people listen to Donald Trump and how he will speak of that vaccine, people will have the impression the vaccine is available. Come-on Ma, get in the car, Trump just said the vaccine is ready to go. SO pay attention to the words of Donald Trump as he begins to talk about the vaccine in the past-tense. It has already begun. And if a vaccine were to be created and ready to go, Donald Trump would insist that vaccine be named after him and contain his name. Will YOU get your Trump Vaccine?

 

[eelw]

Yup he’s going to throw as much tax payers money at companies to rush out the vaccine. But yeah what credit he deserves, who knows.

 

[fskimospy]

One thing that Trump knows, is that a vaccine will save him in assuring his re-election. And notice even today, Trump has already acted as if THERE IS a vaccine. Trump is about to go full blown vaccine propaganda. Trump will talk about everyone getting the vaccine, talk about mass production of that vaccine, talk about how the experts are working together (under his direction no doubt....as to claim all the credit) working together to produce enough vaccine for every American. Trump has already began to push his fake claim that "his" vaccine is only months away, days away, hours away, as Trump creates the illusion YOU CAN TAKE IT TO THE BANK. Trump has already began to speak of a vaccine as if it existed because to make it up and lie about it will convince his base that this is true. When people listen to Donald Trump and how he will speak of that vaccine, people will have the impression the vaccine is available. Come-on Ma, get in the car, Trump just said the vaccine is ready to go. SO pay attention to the words of Donald Trump as he begins to talk about the vaccine in the past-tense. It has already begun. And if a vaccine were to be created and ready to go, Donald Trump would insist that vaccine be named after him and contain his name. Will YOU get your Trump Vaccine?

A vaccine won’t save him, most likely.

 

[Starbuck1975]

One thing that Trump knows, is that a vaccine will save him in assuring his re-election. And notice even today, Trump has already acted as if THERE IS a vaccine. Trump is about to go full blown vaccine propaganda. Trump will talk about everyone getting the vaccine, talk about mass production of that vaccine, talk about how the experts are working together (under his direction no doubt....as to claim all the credit) working together to produce enough vaccine for every American. Trump has already began to push his fake claim that "his" vaccine is only months away, days away, hours away, as Trump creates the illusion YOU CAN TAKE IT TO THE BANK. Trump has already began to speak of a vaccine as if it existed because to make it up and lie about it will convince his base that this is true. When people listen to Donald Trump and how he will speak of that vaccine, people will have the impression the vaccine is available. Come-on Ma, get in the car, Trump just said the vaccine is ready to go. SO pay attention to the words of Donald Trump as he begins to talk about the vaccine in the past-tense. It has already begun. And if a vaccine were to be created and ready to go, Donald Trump would insist that vaccine be named after him and contain his name. Will YOU get your Trump Vaccine?

A vaccine doesn’t save Trump. Anti-vaxx sentiments are high enough that herd immunity is unlikely even with a vaccine available.

Al Franken wrote a pretty good opinion piece on CNN that right now, Biden doesn’t need to do anything, because the polling represents a referendum against how Trump is handling the pandemic, but that Biden does need to start asserting what he does stand for.

The other day, Biden released a statement on climate change. That’s important, but the public mood is focused elsewhere right now.

Trump’s narrow path is around culture war flash points that allow him to change the focus to home field advantage.

One potential flashpoint is the tension growing between suburban working mothers and teacher’s unions around the upcoming school year.

Police unions are starting to slowly assert their voices, and “defund” overreach could cause a backlash.

A Supreme Court vacancy could blow up the whole playing field.

 

[eelw]

Lol thinking people care more about a SCOTUS seat more than health, economy and education.

Moscow Mitch is probably willing to sacrifice his seat if he could get another one in before November. And most definitely rush one in before January 20 when senate flips.

But yeah will the anti-vaxxers actually take the miracle orange drug that magically will appear in October?

 

[Commodus]

The most recent polling from both CNBC/Change and Gravis has Biden up to ten points ahead of Trump in Florida. He's also slightly ahead in North Carolina and other sometimes iffy states, according to CNBC. I know polls don't tell the whole story, but when there's a clear lead in a normally contentious state, for more than a brief bit of time...

Also, while I expect the vote to be closer than I'd like, can I hope for a resounding victory for Biden? That is, the electoral college vote is so thoroughly in his favor that Trump can't seriously contest the results. I mean, he's guaranteed to whine about non-existent mass voting fraud or otherwise moan that the election was unfair, but a decisive Biden win would make it clear to non-sycophants that people have rejected Trump.

 

[K1052]

holy shit

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283416566672117762

 

[K1052]

You guys I think there is something to this candidacy at this moment in America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283485484895875075

 

[hal2kilo]

holy shit

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283416566672117762

That's a big wow.

 

[blackangst1]

holy shit

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283416566672117762

Meh. Remember the polls before the 2016 election?

 

[K1052]

Meh. Remember the polls before the 2016 election?

I'll see your "But 2016" and raise:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1283416786432659456

 

[hal2kilo]

Meh. Remember the polls before the 2016 election?

Asked and answered. Thing called google.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Clinton

www.realclearpolitics.com

!

 

[ewdotson]

Meh. Remember the polls before the 2016 election?

Yeah, do you? Hint: they didn't look like this.

None of that is to say this is a sure thing, of course. "But 2016!" is an extremely facile argument though.

 

[Jhhnn]

Yeah, do you? Hint: they didn't look like this.

None of that is to say this is a sure thing, of course. "But 2016!" is an extremely facile argument though.

It's a paradigm shift. Voters took a chance on Trump & lost, miserably. Many had no idea what they were getting into. And now they do. He's just astoundingly incompetent at anything other than generating controversy & division.

 

[hal2kilo]

One thing that Trump knows, is that a vaccine will save him in assuring his re-election. And notice even today, Trump has already acted as if THERE IS a vaccine. Trump is about to go full blown vaccine propaganda. Trump will talk about everyone getting the vaccine, talk about mass production of that vaccine, talk about how the experts are working together (under his direction no doubt....as to claim all the credit) working together to produce enough vaccine for every American. Trump has already began to push his fake claim that "his" vaccine is only months away, days away, hours away, as Trump creates the illusion YOU CAN TAKE IT TO THE BANK. Trump has already began to speak of a vaccine as if it existed because to make it up and lie about it will convince his base that this is true. When people listen to Donald Trump and how he will speak of that vaccine, people will have the impression the vaccine is available. Come-on Ma, get in the car, Trump just said the vaccine is ready to go. SO pay attention to the words of Donald Trump as he begins to talk about the vaccine in the past-tense. It has already begun. And if a vaccine were to be created and ready to go, Donald Trump would insist that vaccine be named after him and contain his name. Will YOU get your Trump Vaccine?

It's magic.. you can have everything your hearts desires.. Magic...

 

[woolfe9998]

Meh. Remember the polls before the 2016 election?

Yeah, I do remember. They were pretty close to the outcome. It wasn't the polls which were the problem. The problem was the analysts who were reading the polls.

 

[Indus]

It's a paradigm shift. Voters took a chance on Trump & lost, miserably. Many had no idea what they were getting into. And now they do. He's just astoundingly incompetent at anything other than generating controversy & division.

I asked my dad who he thinks will win, he said Trump will win again because he's forceful. Biden is soft and Americans don't like someone soft. He wishes Gore would have run again.

 

[hal2kilo]

It's a paradigm shift. Voters took a chance on Trump & lost, miserably. Many had no idea what they were getting into. And now they do. He's just astoundingly incompetent at anything other than generating controversy & division.

Steve Kornacki is on MSNBC breaking down all of the horrible statistics, and polling results at this very moment. Not looking good for the Big Orange boob.

 

[woolfe9998]

Steve Kornacki is on MSNBC breaking down all of the horrible statistics, and polling results at this very moment. Not looking good for the Big Orange boob.

I think what is most problematic for Trump is not a one day snapshot of how awful the polls are for him, but their stability over time. For about 3 months, Biden had a stable lead of ~5.5 to 6.5, depending on the day. Then around 6/12 he surpassed 8 points and has been 8-10 points for over a month now. The graph lines are remarkably stable.

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

The stability suggests that there aren't a lot of people changing their minds. We already know there is a record low number of undecideds. All of this means that Trump has to convince people who have decided to vote for Biden to change their minds.

 

[hal2kilo]

Things are going so great in the Trump campaign that Parscale is ...gone!

 

[Indus]

Been looking at something because I was nervous..

2016

Month	Donald Trump (R) %	Hillary Clinton (D) %	Gary Johnson (L) %	Jill Stein (G) %
June	35%	40%	5%	3%
37%	42%	8%	5%
July	37%	41%	7%	4%
38%	41%	8%	4%
40%	39%	7%	3%
August	38%	42%	7%	3%
36%	44%	9%	4%
38%	42%	8%	3%
September	38%	41%	8%	3%
41%	42%	9%	3%
41%	44%	7%	2%
October	39%	44%	7%	2%
39%	46%	7%	2%
40%	46%	6%	2%
43%	45%	5%	2%
November	43%	45%	4%	2%
42%	46%	4%	2%
Actual result	46.2%^	48.0%	3.3%	1.1%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+4.2%	+2.0%	-0.7%	-0.9%

I think its safe to assume a +5-7% for Trump that doesn't show in the polls because not everyone like to show themselves as Trump supporters to friends/ pollsters but they secretly are.

 

[ondma]

Been looking at something because I was nervous..

2016

Month	Donald Trump (R) %	Hillary Clinton (D) %	Gary Johnson (L) %	Jill Stein (G) %
June	35%	40%	5%	3%
37%	42%	8%	5%
July	37%	41%	7%	4%
38%	41%	8%	4%
40%	39%	7%	3%
August	38%	42%	7%	3%
36%	44%	9%	4%
38%	42%	8%	3%
September	38%	41%	8%	3%
41%	42%	9%	3%
41%	44%	7%	2%
October	39%	44%	7%	2%
39%	46%	7%	2%
40%	46%	6%	2%
43%	45%	5%	2%
November	43%	45%	4%	2%
42%	46%	4%	2%
Actual result	46.2%^	48.0%	3.3%	1.1%
Difference between actual result and final poll	+4.2%	+2.0%	-0.7%	-0.9%

I think its safe to assume a +5-7% for Trump that doesn't show in the polls because not everyone like to show themselves as Trump supporters to friends/ pollsters but they secretly are.

I agree. Plus the margin of error is around 4%, so there is the 10% "lead" that could easily disappear.

 

[Indus]

Steve Kornacki is on MSNBC breaking down all of the horrible statistics, and polling results at this very moment. Not looking good for the Big Orange boob.

I think you can add 5-7% to Trump's numbers without a doubt.. a LOT of Trump supporters don't like anyone knowing they support him openly.

Also the fact is no poll puts Biden at 55.. all are 46-51 (well within margin of error)

 

[K1052]

Also the fact is no poll puts Biden at 55.. all are 46-51 (well within margin of error)

What? Biden is increasingly at or above 50% in surveys and consistently leads Trump by 8 to 15 points. This is not imaginary and Trump didn’t just fire Parascale because things are going well. GOP internal polling largely agrees with the public polls because they aren’t leaking those.

 

[Jhhnn]

I think you can add 5-7% to Trump's numbers without a doubt.. a LOT of Trump supporters don't like anyone knowing they support him openly

Did the magic 8 ball tell you that? Polls are anonymous.