I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[ondma]

Watched "This Week" this morning. Maybe they did not want to seem overconfident, but both the democratic leaders and the republicans said their private polling indicated Biden's lead was narrowing. Rohm Emmanuel, who has been quite confident, even seemed much less so than in the past. So I am becoming increasing nervous.

Despite all the criticism, I can think that the huge number of rallies Trump is having, and the enthusiasm is having some effect. At least in MN he is also putting out a huge number of pretty effective sounding attack ads.

 

[linkgoron]

Despite all the criticism, I can think that the huge number of rallies Trump is having, and the enthusiasm is having some effect. At least in MN he is also putting out a huge number of pretty effective sounding attack ads.

With early voting at more than 50% of the 2016 voting total in Minnesota, the opportunity is also shrinking. However, both sides have some interest in selling a narrowing lead. Democrats want to make sure that voters are not complacent and Republicans want to give the voters hope that their vote will matter.

 

[fskimospy]

Watched "This Week" this morning. Maybe they did not want to seem overconfident, but both the democratic leaders and the republicans said their private polling indicated Biden's lead was narrowing. Rohm Emmanuel, who has been quite confident, even seemed much less so than in the past. So I am becoming increasing nervous.

Despite all the criticism, I can think that the huge number of rallies Trump is having, and the enthusiasm is having some effect. At least in MN he is also putting out a huge number of pretty effective sounding attack ads.

Wait, I thought you didn’t believe polling?

 

[Jhhnn]

Watched "This Week" this morning. Maybe they did not want to seem overconfident, but both the democratic leaders and the republicans said their private polling indicated Biden's lead was narrowing. Rohm Emmanuel, who has been quite confident, even seemed much less so than in the past. So I am becoming increasing nervous.

Despite all the criticism, I can think that the huge number of rallies Trump is having, and the enthusiasm is having some effect. At least in MN he is also putting out a huge number of pretty effective sounding attack ads.

Probably not the same effect as 2016, reality being what it is-

https://static.independent.co.uk/2020/10/14/21/Screen%20Shot%202020-10-14%20at%204.43.14%20PM.png?width=1200

 

[Jhhnn]

With early voting at more than 50% of the 2016 voting total in Minnesota, the opportunity is also shrinking. However, both sides have some interest in selling a narrowing lead. Democrats want to make sure that voters are not complacent and Republicans want to give the voters hope that their vote will matter.

Yeh, complacency led to Trump, didn't it?

 

[alexruiz]

Watched "This Week" this morning. Maybe they did not want to seem overconfident, but both the democratic leaders and the republicans said their private polling indicated Biden's lead was narrowing. Rohm Emmanuel, who has been quite confident, even seemed much less so than in the past. So I am becoming increasing nervous.

Despite all the criticism, I can think that the huge number of rallies Trump is having, and the enthusiasm is having some effect. At least in MN he is also putting out a huge number of pretty effective sounding attack ads.

A lot of the trumpsters at his rallies are REPEAT customers.
If a rally is within driving distance, a lot of the crazies will attend them all.

On the ads you are right, I do agree that the democrats are playing too nice.
Where is the ad stating "if he cannot protect himself from catching "the hoax", how can he protect YOU?

Poll for the senate race here in my adoptive MI shows it tighter than the presidential race.
The democratic candidate has done very little to link the repugnant candidate to the cheeto. The repug candidate is a black guy, so a lot of people are probably getting confused probably thinking he is the democrat.

 

[fskimospy]

A lot of the trumpsters at his rallies are REPEAT customers.
If a rally is within driving distance, a lot of the crazies will attend them all.

On the ads you are right, I do agree that the democrats are playing too nice.
Where is the ad stating "if he cannot protect himself from catching "the hoax", how can he protect YOU?

Poll for the senate race here in my adoptive MI shows it tighter than the presidential race.
The democratic candidate has done very little to link the repugnant candidate to the cheeto. The repug candidate is a black guy, so a lot of people are probably getting confused probably thinking he is the democrat.

I don’t agree that we need more negative ads against Trump. Opinions on him are fixed - who exactly at this point is going to be convinced by one more ad showing Trump is an incompetent racist?

From what I’ve read opinions on Biden are much less fixed so it’s probably a better use of time and money to tell people why they should like Biden instead of hate Trump.

 

[eelw]

I don’t agree that we need more negative ads against Trump. Opinions on him are fixed - who exactly at this point is going to be convinced by one more ad showing Trump is an incompetent racist?

From what I’ve read opinions on Biden are much less fixed so it’s probably a better use of time and money to tell people why they should like Biden instead of hate Trump.

Yeah not sure the market of some of these ads. Like why is Trumpity Dumpity buying ads on CNN? Unlikely to sway many undecided. But the same goes for why did Biden and Obama agree to do interviews on Fox this past week? Unless they are doing what the Lincoln project is doing just to piss off the orange baby.

 

[alexruiz]

I don’t agree that we need more negative ads against Trump. Opinions on him are fixed - who exactly at this point is going to be convinced by one more ad showing Trump is an incompetent racist?

From what I’ve read opinions on Biden are much less fixed so it’s probably a better use of time and money to tell people why they should like Biden instead of hate Trump.

A lot of faux news watchers really drink the kool aid that "he has done a great job containing the virus" "we would have many more deaths if Joe was in charge, remember H1N1?"
Such ad pointing that he caught it would make it harder to for them to propagate that BS

 

[BUTCH1]

Watched "This Week" this morning. Maybe they did not want to seem overconfident, but both the democratic leaders and the republicans said their private polling indicated Biden's lead was narrowing. Rohm Emmanuel, who has been quite confident, even seemed much less so than in the past. So I am becoming increasing nervous.

Despite all the criticism, I can think that the huge number of rallies Trump is having, and the enthusiasm is having some effect. At least in MN he is also putting out a huge number of pretty effective sounding attack ads.

I'm in central FL and the amount of ad's from both parties is INSANE, I've seen trumpers on street corner waving
huge trump 2020 flags, of course I popped open my sunroof and gave then a double "fuck you" salute, who says
sunroof's are useless!.

 

[hal2kilo]

I'm in central FL and the amount of ad's from both parties is INSANE, I've seen trumpers on street corner waving
huge trump 2020 flags, of course I popped open my sunroof and gave then a double "fuck you" salute, who says
sunroof's are useless!.

Just make sure you are not just in vent.

 

[ondma]

I'm in central FL and the amount of ad's from both parties is INSANE, I've seen trumpers on street corner waving
huge trump 2020 flags, of course I popped open my sunroof and gave then a double "fuck you" salute, who says
sunroof's are useless!.

While I totally share your sentiment, unless you have a few friends with you who are packing heat, that might not be a prudent thing to do.

 

[zzyzxroad]

I'm in central FL and the amount of ad's from both parties is INSANE, I've seen trumpers on street corner waving
huge trump 2020 flags, of course I popped open my sunroof and gave then a double "fuck you" salute, who says
sunroof's are useless!.

I lived in South Florida serval years ago and my phone has blown up with text sand calls from organizations in FL. I have received exactly zero from anyone in California (where I now live).

 

[manly]

A lot of faux news watchers really drink the kool aid that "he has done a great job containing the virus" "we would have many more deaths if Joe was in charge, remember H1N1?"
Such ad pointing that he caught it would make it harder to for them to propagate that BS

Although I agree with you in principle, I don't think any amount of fact-checking and logic will convince MAGA.
It's absolutely ludicrous that Trump keeps parroting the line that he's saved about 1.8M American lives (when that isn't what the epidemiologists ever said), but more so that he's rarely ever called out on it. Savannah Guthrie's town hall was one of the rare exceptions, and I don't think she fully pressed the point either.

 

[MrSquished]

Although I agree with you in principle, I don't think any amount of fact-checking and logic will convince MAGA.
It's absolutely ludicrous that Trump keeps parroting the line that he's saved about 1.8M American lives (when that isn't what the epidemiologists ever said), but more so that he's rarely ever called out on it. Savannah Guthrie's town hall was one of the rare exceptions, and I don't think she fully pressed the point either.

They think Trump has fixed healthcare, is honest cause he shoots his mouth and has taken care of the debt. They are walking imbeciles.

 

[zinfamous]

Watch for the claims of "illegitimate!" when some states go from Red to Blue overnight, as the lagging counting for all the mail-in ballots start to accumulate in the late/early hours. This is...completely expected and fundamentally explainable through data and expectations regarding known voting habits, but still, the argument will absolutely be made.

The Talking heads will be screaming it, folks like sp33dy and compuwiz and oilfield will be bloodying their fingers on their keyboards over this profoundly baseless accusation, and even pointing it out now--they will still fucking do it. So, just expect that.

Obviously, some states will also swing from blue to red in the same time period and for the same reasons, regarding individual state voting laws and counting schedules. So, it's only normal and wholly expected. But it is an already-established GOP and nutter fringe talking point to defend the baseless argument that the election is illegitimate.

 

[ondma]

We have a senate candidate here in MN (Jason Lewis), who is of the Rush Limbaugh mold, (ultra conservative former talk radio host) who is actually seen shooting a pistol at the end of his latest ad. The incumbent democrat had about a 10 point lead a few months ago, but now the race is supposedly within a point or two. Republicans are relentlessly pounding the law and order issue and using it to smear every democratic candidate as being part of the "liberal mob" of Pelosi and Omar who want to raise taxes, force the Green New Deal, and establish Medicare for all. Of course these claims are accompanied by videos of rioters and burning buildings in the background. As absurd as it seems, these tactics actually seem to be working.

 

[fskimospy]

We have a senate candidate here in MN (Jason Lewis), who is of the Rush Limbaugh mold, (ultra conservative former talk radio host) who is actually seen shooting a pistol at the end of his latest ad. The incumbent democrat had about a 10 point lead a few months ago, but now the race is supposedly within a point or two. Republicans are relentlessly pounding the law and order issue and using it to smear every democratic candidate as being part of the "liberal mob" of Pelosi and Omar who want to raise taxes, force the Green New Deal, and establish Medicare for all. Of course these claims are accompanied by videos of rioters and burning buildings in the background. As absurd as it seems, these tactics actually seem to be working.

Again, when confronted with polls that showed democrats winning didn’t you say you didn’t believe polls?

 

[brycejones]

\ Pelosi and Omar who want to raise taxes, force the Green New Deal, and establish Medicare for all.

This is horrible, people who want to do things that have a benefit to society and pay for them! Robber barons and people dying in the streets or going bankrupt because they got sick while borrowing to give money to the wealthiest is a much better plan.

 

[fskimospy]

I would genuinely like an answer as to if polls are reliable or not. If they aren’t and nothing matters I think that’s silly but it is at least internally coherent. Instead what I see is people saying half the time ‘LOL polls don’t matter’ and then as soon as they see a poll that validates them emotionally they suddenly think they matter again.

I feel like you should have to pick one.

 

[Dave_5k]

I would genuinely like an answer as to if polls are reliable or not.
...
I feel like you should have to pick one.

While this wasn't directed at me, I generally think polls are reliable, but the uncertainty margins are vastly understated (when they are even provided) by almost all polls. So for example Pennsylvania, running about +4 to +5 in favor of Biden (on average) is still well within margin of error. 538 website does a good job of illustrating this uncertainty, best I've found. Example for aforementioned Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

And unfortunately, many polls are deliberately heavily biased - e.g. recent Michigan poll (by Trafalgar Group) that started off election poll with, and I am not kidding: "Agree or disagree. Joe Biden took corrupt payments from his son Hunter's involvement in China, Russia, and Ukraine." Before getting around to asking about choice for president.

Trafalgar later deleted the poll results, conducted for an undisclosed party (cough, Trump, cough), when the underlying questions and cross-tabs were accidently disclosed.

 

[fskimospy]

While this wasn't directed at me, I generally think polls are reliable, but the uncertainty margins are vastly understated (when they are even provided) by almost all polls. So for example Pennsylvania, running about +4 to +5 in favor of Biden (on average) is still well within margin of error. 538 website does a good job of illustrating this uncertainty, best I've found. Example for aforementioned Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

And unfortunately, many polls are deliberately heavily biased - e.g. recent Michigan poll (by Trafalgar Group) that started off election poll with, and I am not kidding: "Agree or disagree. Joe Biden took corrupt payments from his son Hunter's involvement in China, Russia, and Ukraine." Before getting around to asking about choice for president.

Trafalgar later deleted the poll results, conducted for an undisclosed party (cough, Trump, cough), when the underlying questions and cross-tabs were accidently disclosed.

Sorry but this is not accurate. 4/5 points is within the margin of error for any single poll, yes, but 538 and other sites use polling averages, for which the margin of error is significantly lower as they combine large number of polls.

While it’s probably true that if you take the extreme edges of the residual margin of error they might overlap what the 538 estimate mostly represents at this point is the idea that the polls are wrong in a systemic way.

 

[Wreckem]

We have a senate candidate here in MN (Jason Lewis), who is of the Rush Limbaugh mold, (ultra conservative former talk radio host) who is actually seen shooting a pistol at the end of his latest ad. The incumbent democrat had about a 10 point lead a few months ago, but now the race is supposedly within a point or two. Republicans are relentlessly pounding the law and order issue and using it to smear every democratic candidate as being part of the "liberal mob" of Pelosi and Omar who want to raise taxes, force the Green New Deal, and establish Medicare for all. Of course these claims are accompanied by videos of rioters and burning buildings in the background. As absurd as it seems, these tactics actually seem to be working.

You like to play both sides with polling. Republicans losing are winning but democrats leading are losing. The only poll showing it close in that race is SurveyUSA which is a high quality poll but the aggregate of polling still shows Smith by +5. Better than .5 for Ernst, or nothing for Graham, or -2 for Tillis.

 

[eelw]

Although I agree with you in principle, I don't think any amount of fact-checking and logic will convince MAGA.
It's absolutely ludicrous that Trump keeps parroting the line that he's saved about 1.8M American lives (when that isn't what the epidemiologists ever said),

And creating a record 11 million jobs. Yes returning to work, he deserves all the credit. Pity Biden or Harris didn't confront them in the debates, so you want credit for the job gains, does that mean you take credit for the record job losses?

 

[Jhhnn]

Sorry but this is not accurate. 4/5 points is within the margin of error for any single poll, yes, but 538 and other sites use polling averages, for which the margin of error is significantly lower as they combine large number of polls.

While it’s probably true that if you take the extreme edges of the residual margin of error they might overlap what the 538 estimate mostly represents at this point is the idea that the polls are wrong in a systemic way.

I think Dems are suffering from PTSD after the polls were off significantly across the upper midwest in 2016. They'll have to be off a lot more than they were for Trump to win WI or MI. I have a hard time believing that Trump holding 10 superspreader rallies in the two days prior to the election will actually help his cause, particularly among seniors. It's completely insane that he is doing so.