I Don't Know If Joe Can Do It

[woolfe9998]

I think Jennings did a promo for Trump's upcoming debate performance...

The spin in the last sentence here is fantastic, too-



Joe Biden is unhinged & ridiculous... compared to Trump?

Yes, it's ridiculous, yet this guy thinks Trump largely tanked at the town hall. I didn't see it, so I thought that was interesting.

 

[shortylickens]

Trump "not doing well" means he probably just picked up another 1% nationwide and is at 93% Republican approval.

There is no peak with this thing.

its scary.
Donald is obviously a horrible monster and not even trying to do his job yet theres a halfway decent chance he could be reelected. Meaning not only is the republican propaganda complex performing at peak efficiency, but the average American is a fuckin moron.

 

[Thump553]

Shy Trump voters always gives me a chuckle. I mean, when were they ever shy before?

I'm greatly worried that there are tons of people out there who will vote for Trump but would die of shame if their friends, family members, etc. learned. This is Trump's secret weapon and the reason that every single person who wants to rid us of this travesty MUST vote (and not through their vote away on a trivial third party and/or wacko celebrity).

 

[K1052]

Quinnipiac just released some Senate polling that also tested Trump's numbers and well..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1306294975840256003

Trump won SC by 14 points in 2016.

 

[ondma]

Kentucky is disappointing. I thought McGrath was pretty much even with McConnell. The dems really need to take the Senate as well. Getting rid of Trump is key, of course, but that will only stop some of the bleeding. There wont be any real progress with new initiatives, (environment, education, health care, etc.) unless the dems take the senate.

 

[ivwshane]

Kentucky is disappointing. I thought McGrath was pretty much even with McConnell. The dems really need to take the Senate as well. Getting rid of Trump is key, of course, but that will only stop some of the bleeding. There wont be any real progress with new initiatives, (environment, education, health care, etc.) unless the dems take the senate.

You can’t keep putting up the same failed candidates and expect different results. It’s like the Dems aren’t even trying sometimes.

 

[hal2kilo]

You can’t keep putting up the same failed candidates and expect different results. It’s like the Dems aren’t even trying sometimes.

They need to find someone who can spell Democrat in that state first.

 

[Wreckem]

I mean the Dems are going to lose Alabama so they need to win 4 seats.

Arizona, Maine, and Colorado look like a done deal at this point.

So from there they need to pick up Montana, Iowa, NC, or one of the Georgia seats. I think at this point NC, Iowa and Montana could all go Dem. The odds of one of the three are extremely high. At this point Id say it’s a 90% chance they pick up one of those three. 70% chance they pick up two of the three. And even money on picking up all three.

 

[fskimospy]

You can’t keep putting up the same failed candidates and expect different results. It’s like the Dems aren’t even trying sometimes.

Assuming the Kentucky number is accurate for Trump the idea that a senate candidate is going to run 20 points ahead of the presidential candidate is a fantasy.

Running 8 points ahead of national numbers against the most powerful incumbent in the Senate is an extremely strong showing.

 

[K1052]

I mean the Dems are going to lose Alabama so they need to win 4 seats.

Arizona, Maine, and Colorado look like a done deal at this point.

So from there they need to pick up Montana, Iowa, NC, or one of the Georgia seats. I think at this point NC, Iowa and Montana could all go Dem. The odds of one of the three are extremely high. At this point Id say it’s a 90% chance they pick up one of those three. 70% chance they pick up two of the three. And even money on picking up all three.

I think Cunningham pulls it off in NC by a better than expected margin. Tillis is remarkably unlikable, even to a surprising number of Trump voters.

 

[ondma]

You can’t keep putting up the same failed candidates and expect different results. It’s like the Dems aren’t even trying sometimes.

More likely they are simply politically inept. They have lost a huge segment of the non-minority, working class and rural voters, who once were strongly dem supporters. For instance the Democrat's formal name in Minnesota is DFL (democratic farmer labor) and they have pretty much lost both the farmer and labor categories. Part of this IMO is their sometimes over-emphasis on identity politics, as well as Trumps ability to somehow convince voters that he is for the little guy. He has a moderate chance to win Minnesota because he has convinced out state areas that he is the person to bring jobs back to them, especially for farming and the mining jobs in northern Minn.

 

[K1052]

More likely they are simply politically inept. They have lost a huge segment of the non-minority, working class and rural voters, who once were strongly dem supporters. For instance the Democrat's formal name in Minnesota is DFL (democratic farmer labor) and they have pretty much lost both the farmer and labor categories. Part of this IMO is their sometimes over-emphasis on identity politics, as well as Trumps ability to somehow convince voters that he is for the little guy. He has a moderate chance to win Minnesota because he has convinced out state areas that he is the person to bring jobs back to them, especially for farming and the mining jobs in northern Minn.

Biden is +10 at RCP and +8.9 at 538 in Minnesota. Trump has a chance but it's low not moderate.

 

[fskimospy]

More likely they are simply politically inept. They have lost a huge segment of the non-minority, working class and rural voters, who once were strongly dem supporters. For instance the Democrat's formal name in Minnesota is DFL (democratic farmer labor) and they have pretty much lost both the farmer and labor categories. Part of this IMO is their sometimes over-emphasis on identity politics, as well as Trumps ability to somehow convince voters that he is for the little guy. He has a moderate chance to win Minnesota because he has convinced out state areas that he is the person to bring jobs back to them, especially for farming and the mining jobs in northern Minn.

You realize that the Republican Party is basically entirely identity politics now, right? That’s all they are.

They just happen to embrace the white identity politics that appeal to rural voters.

 

[ondma]

Biden is +10 at RCP and +8.9 at 538 in Minnesota. Trump has a chance but it's low not moderate.

As in most places, it comes down to having a good turnout, particularly in the Twin Cities.

 

[Jhhnn]

Assuming the Kentucky number is accurate for Trump the idea that a senate candidate is going to run 20 points ahead of the presidential candidate is a fantasy.

Running 8 points ahead of national numbers against the most powerful incumbent in the Senate is an extremely strong showing.

McConnell has been re-elected 5 times & brings home the bacon for Kentucky bigly, very bigly.

Most & Least Federally Dependent States

Most & Least Federally Dependent States

wallethub.com

They eased out Mississippi to take the #2 federal dependency slot. Weird, huh?

 

[K1052]

As in most places, it comes down to having a good turnout, particularly in the Twin Cities.

I'll believe 2020 is going to be a low turnout year when people stop climbing over each other to vote in record numbers in the primaries.

 

[ondma]

You realize that the Republican Party is basically entirely identity politics now, right? That’s all they are.

They just happen to embrace the white identity politics that appeal to rural voters.

As usual you oversimplify and cast everyone who is not a liberal democrat in the same mold. I suppose if you work hard enough, you can twist almost any issue into identity politics, but the economy is a big issue in outstate Minnesota, because Trump has managed to convince farmers that he is helping their cause, and also that he will bring back the lost mining jobs in northern Minnesota.

Edit: It would be nice for the Democrats to promote some sort of plan to help farmers and bring back jobs lost in outstate areas.

 

[K1052]

As usual you oversimplify and cast everyone who is not a liberal democrat in the same mold. I suppose if you work hard enough, you can twist almost any issue into identity politics, but the economy is a big issue in outstate Minnesota, because Trump has managed to convince farmers that he is helping their cause, and also that he will bring back the lost mining jobs in northern Minnesota.

He's done none of those things, will do none of those things, and nothing any Democrat can say will convince them otherwise. It's not possible because it is not rational. It's tribal.

 

[ewdotson]

Edit: It would be nice for the Democrats to promote some sort of plan to help farmers and bring back jobs lost in outstate areas.

You mean something like this?

Joe Biden's Plan for Rural America | Joe Biden for President

Joe Biden's plan for rural America will build a healthy, vibrant rural America — because he knows it is essential to the success of our country.

joebiden.com

 

[Jhhnn]

As in most places, it comes down to having a good turnout, particularly in the Twin Cities.

Turnout, you say? We're going to kick Trump's ass.

 

[K1052]

You mean something like this?

Joe Biden's Plan for Rural America | Joe Biden for President

Joe Biden's plan for rural America will build a healthy, vibrant rural America — because he knows it is essential to the success of our country.

joebiden.com

Clinton had plans. Biden has plans. A lack of plans isn't at all the problem.

They don't care because Trump lies about a past that never was and a future that ain't coming. They identify with him though and that's all which counts.

 

[fskimospy]

As usual you oversimplify and cast everyone who is not a liberal democrat in the same mold. I suppose if you work hard enough, you can twist almost any issue into identity politics, but the economy is a big issue in outstate Minnesota, because Trump has managed to convince farmers that he is helping their cause, and also that he will bring back the lost mining jobs in northern Minnesota.

Edit: It would be nice for the Democrats to promote some sort of plan to help farmers and bring back jobs lost in outstate areas.

I don’t need to twist anything, Republicans are on the record since the Nixon years as having their plan be to stoke white racial anxieties.

How do you not know this? They came right out and said it!

 

[ondma]

You mean something like this?

Joe Biden's Plan for Rural America | Joe Biden for President

Joe Biden's plan for rural America will build a healthy, vibrant rural America — because he knows it is essential to the success of our country.

joebiden.com

Sounds very good actually. Maybe he could like, tell us about it when he comes to Minnesota? The only Dem I have heard really addressing bringing back jobs in a strong way is our Senator Tina Smith.

 

[sportage]

Trump had a win in that ABC town hall "only" because it was OTA TV and anyone with an antenna could have tuned in. Where as, Joe Biden will also do a town hall Thursday, on CNN. CNN ??? Joe.... you need a bigger boat for gods sake....

 

[DisarmedDespot]

Trump had a win in that ABC town hall "only" because it was OTA TV and anyone with an antenna could have tuned in. Where as, Joe Biden will also do a town hall Thursday, on CNN. CNN ??? Joe.... you need a bigger boat for gods sake....

No offense, but you might be going a little overboard with trying to find wins for Trump to get worried about. Trump's town hall was a trainwreck, even according to his supporters. More people seeing him like that isn't a win.