Did it occur to anybody that moonbogg might really be a very nice person who has suffered a lot of tragedy and lives in an altered reality because he doesn't want anybody else to feel his pain. Maybe his tragedy was so great that he can't face the possibility that something else that is bad was about to happen, that his mental denial was a warding event, that he wanted to cause the storm not to happen by assuring himself and the world that it wouldn't. Maybe what he predicted would happen he predicted because he is deeply kind and just couldn't face the possibility that others might suffer as he has. Maybe that's what all denial is really all about, the desperate longing for goodness over pain, the traumaturgic transformation of base reality to gold via imagination. What if we are holding in contempt what springs from the best within us.
If so then it would seem that our salvation, the rational processing of reality and optimism happens only when we can tolerate and experience our real inner pain.