I'm not really interested in getting sucked down this rabbit hole with BS24; he's shown us before he has zero interest in discussing this topic honestly. I simply note his denial is crafted from a mix of flawed science and deceitful math. I'll leave this here for the rest of you if you're interested.
First, here's one of many nice summaries rebutting his denial:
Misuse of probability by "creation scientists". Not only does it deconstruct his reasoning, but it cites a couple of examples of real world evolution. For example:
"Ample and well-established experimental evidence supports the scientific view. For example, in a 1974 paper by biologists Barry Hall and Daniel Hartl, a gene was identified in the bacterium E. coli that is responsible for metabolizing lactose, using a complicated three-part process. They removed this gene, and then permitted the bacteria to multiply in a stressed environment containing lactose. Within 24 hours the bacteria had evolved a capability to utilize lactose, by means of a similar but distinct three-part biochemical pathway, involving two mutated genes [Hall; Miller, 1999, pg. 145-147]."
Note that this didn't require billions of years and a planet full of organisms. It was observed in a lab, and it took a day. Life adapts.
This hasn't rebutted anything I've said here. All I've said that if something is fantastically unlikely that 4 billion years isn't all long to make them likely or certain. So we need to know more.
It taking a day is evidence that it wasn't a random change that caused this. The adaptability of organisms isn't evidence that these systems were the product of Neo-Darwinian evolution, quite the opposite.
Second, BS24's starting assumption of 100 trillion (10^14) organisms is ridiculously wrong. The current best estimates are that there are somewhere around 10^30 to 10^35 simple microscopic organisms on Earth This does NOT include more complex lifeforms, each with billions or trillions of cells. (For example, each individual human body is estimated to have between 10^13 and 10^14 cells.)
First the number of cells in more complex lifeforms are irrelevant to this discussion. Reproductive cells are all that count there. Secondly, I wasn't trying to make a probability argument so the actual numbers don't really matter (as explained above).
The estimated number of microorganisms I found was 9.2×10^29 and 31.7×10^29
here. Not that it matters AT ALL to what I've been saying.
Also, I assumed replication once every second when things like ecoli takes 20 minutes to replicate but again, it doesn't matter.
Bottom line: assuming only 100 trillion organisms are replicating is off by a good 20 orders of magnitude, give or take a few. When one starts with accurate numbers and assesses evolutionary processes accurately, yes, complex life forms are a virtual certainty over billions of years.
Show us your numbers. You're just making things up.