Havoc in Kiev: Snipers fire on protesters/opposition (NSFW)

[gevorg]

The EU does not seem to care what kind of puppets they get, as long as its theirs. Ukraine should be under EU control at all costs.

The Ukrainian Neo-Nazi Svoboda party gets dozens of seats in the parliament ("Rada"). Some of the things they stand for:

- Ban on abortion, except in cases of medical necessity, or rape
- Ban on adoptions by non-Ukrainians of Ukrainian children
- Proportional representation on executive bodies of ethnic Ukrainians
- homosexuality provokes sexually transmitted diseases and AIDS
- Nationalization of major enterprises
- An explicit guarantee of accession to NATO within a set period of time
- Ukraine should again re-acquire tactical nuclear weaponry

John McCain with the leader of Neo-Nazi Svoboda:

 

[theeedude]

Looks like Ukraine has announced the new "Unity" government that EU wanted.
No one representing the east, and an "opposition" activist as minister in charge of purging the government of anyone representing the east. I am sure he's going to be "objective."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...0665800/Ukraines-new-government-Whos-who.html

- Lustration Committee head Yegor Sobolev

Mr Sobolev, 37, is a leading Ukrainian opposition journalist and activist who writes among other publications for the opposition news site Ukrainska Pravda. He will head a committee aimed at purging Ukrainian institutions of any remaining Yanukovych allies.

The regime in Kiev either wants the country to split, or they are acting like that out rank stupidity.

 

[WelshBloke]

Looks like Ukraine has announced the new "Unity" government that EU wanted.
No one representing the east, and an "opposition" activist as minister in charge of purging the government of anyone representing the east. I am sure he's going to be "objective."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...0665800/Ukraines-new-government-Whos-who.html


The regime in Kiev either wants the country to split, or they are acting like that out rank stupidity.

They aren't "purging the government of anyone representing the east", they are understably upset at a repressive regime that disregarded the publics wishes and also used snipers on its own citizens.

You seem awfully enamoured to just paint one side as the good guys and the other as a bunch of thugs. You don't think that you might need to step back a bit and try to see both sides?

 

[theeedude]

They aren't "purging the government of anyone representing the east", they are understably upset at a repressive regime that disregarded the publics wishes and also used snipers on its own citizens.

You seem awfully enamoured to just paint one side as the good guys and the other as a bunch of thugs. You don't think that you might need to step back a bit and try to see both sides?

The regime in Kiev doesn't want to see both sides, which is why they are purging the opposing side. They only accept pro EU side. Look at the votes in new Ukrainian parliament. Saddam Hussein would be envious.
The people of eastern Ukraine elected the Party of Regions to represent them. You don't have to like it, but these are their democratically elected representatives. If the regime in Kiev wants to tell people in the eastern Ukraine who they can and can't vote for, they can do it, but then they shouldn't expect eastern Ukraine to accept their regime as representing them in any way shape or form. It's the regime in Kiev's choice, but they should have to live with the consequences. Want to alienate the east? Fine, but then don't complain about separatism.

 

[WelshBloke]

The regime in Kiev doesn't want to see both sides, which is why they are purging the opposing side.

They are purging the outgoing regime because the outgoing regime was using snipers on its own civilians and kidnapping and torturing the opposition when in power.

 

[theeedude]

They are purging the outgoing regime because the outgoing regime was using snipers on its own civilians and kidnapping and torturing the opposition when in power.

The police were shot at and kidnapped by the opposition as well. Is the new regime in Kiev going to purge themselves too? The point is people in the east should decide who they want to vote for.
If the Kiev regime has proof of specific crimes being committed, they can charge specific people. Instead they want to ban every party that disagrees with them, and approve candidates that those in the east can vote for, in order to rig elections in the Kiev's regime's favor. That is not representative democracy, and government elected in this way will not be recognized as legitimate by the people it purports to represent.

 

[WelshBloke]

The police were shot at and kidnapped by the opposition as well. Is the new regime in Kiev going to purge themselves too?

I'm just pointing out that they are hardly likely to want to work with people who were literally crucifying them earlier.

 

[theeedude]

I'm just pointing out that they are hardly likely to want to work with people who were literally crucifying them earlier.

OK, but then they shouldn't be surprised if the country breaks apart. They can work with the people eastern Ukrainians choose to represent themselves, or they can lose eastern Ukraine. It's their choice. If the government in Kiev doesn't represent eastern Ukraine, it has every right to create a government that does.

 

[WelshBloke]

OK, but then they shouldn't be surprised if the country breaks apart. They can work with the people eastern Ukrainians choose to represent themselves, or they can lose eastern Ukraine. It's their choice. If the government in Kiev doesn't represent eastern Ukraine, it has every right to create a government that does.

If the old regime had been held to those standards the country wouldn't be in the mess it is now.

You seem keen to put all the blame onto the revolutionaries rather than the repressive regime that defied the will of its citizens and ran the country for the benefit of outside agencies.

If you put a lid on people you have to keep tightening that lid against the pressure. Unfortunately the repercussions when things explode are more dire the tighter you keep the lid.

 

[theeedude]

If the old regime had been held to those standards the country wouldn't be in the mess it is now.

You seem keen to put all the blame onto the revolutionaries rather than the repressive regime that defied the will of its citizens and ran the country for the benefit of outside agencies.

The deal that Yanukovich got from Russia was far more beneficial to Ukraine than the one from the West. Cheap gas and an a loan without conditions that IMF wanted to impose, which would bankrupt most of Ukraine's industry.
The opposition is running the country for the benefit of EU against the interests of most Ukrainians.

If you put a lid on people you have to keep tightening that lid against the pressure. Unfortunately the repercussions when things explode are more dire the tighter you keep the lid.

The new regime in Kiev should heed this warning, before eastern Ukraine explodes on them. Crimea already has, I guess they want more.

 

[Fern]

I'm interested in what Putin might do.

Seems Putin has long been planning a return to the old USSR. So he should be expected to have some long-term strategic plans. I.e., he might not need to reign in the Ukraine right now. Also, unlike the old USSR I suspect Putin is willing to use as much 'carrot' as as he is 'stick'.

But when this flared up I started wondering what he might do. In the short, i.e. he wants the Ukraine now, the two most plausible options seemed:

1. Organize and support a counter-revolution to return power to those leaning towards Russia.

2. Manufacture/claim a pogrom is going on against the Russian ethnic folks thus justifying a Russian military response in the Ukraine to restore order.

Fern

 

[Fern]

The deal that Yanukovich got from Russia was far more beneficial to Ukraine than the one from the West. Cheap gas and an a loan without conditions that IMF wanted to impose, which would bankrupt most of Ukraine's industry.
The opposition is running the country for the benefit of EU against the interests of most Ukrainians.
-snip-

I'm not familiar with all the details of the two deals offered. Could expand on those?

What specific benefit to EU are you referring to?

TIA

Fern

 

[theeedude]

I'm interested in what Putin might do.

Seems Putin has long been planning a return to the old USSR. So he should be expected to have some long-term strategic plans. I.e., he might not need to reign in the Ukraine right now. Also, unlike the old USSR I suspect Putin is willing to use as much 'carrot' as as he is 'stick'.

But when this flared up I started wondering what he might do. In the short, i.e. he wants the Ukraine now, the two most plausible options seemed:

1. Organize and support a counter-revolution to return power to those leaning towards Russia.

2. Manufacture/claim a pogrom is going on against the Russian ethnic folks thus justifying a Russian military response in the Ukraine to restore order.

Fern

3. Wait. Putin is familiar with what happened in Russia in the 90s. People were hopeful that after USSR collapsed, Russia would become a European style capitalist country. Instead they got economic shock therapy austerity imposed as condition of western loans, resulting economic collapse, separatism, anarchy, etc, all of which turned generations of Russians against western values and longing for an authoritarian leadership to restore order.
What's the new Ukrainian government facing? IMF imposed shock therapy, separatism, anarchy, etc. Putin has seen this movie before. On top of that, if they open up borders to EU trade, Russia will close its borders, and raise tariffs and gas prices. Entire industries in Ukraine that depend on exports to Russia and cheap gas will become uncompetitive and collapse. Do you think Europeans are interested in having cheap Ukrainian goods competing with their industries? Of course Russia will also stir the separatist pot in the southeast, but more to create additional problems for the new government in Kiev and hasten its collapse, than to seize those areas outright.

 

[theeedude]

I'm not familiar with all the details of the two deals offered. Could expand on those?

What specific benefit to EU are you referring to?

TIA

Fern

The deals Yanukovich had to decide from were:

Russian deal:
$15B loan with no austerity conditions and 30% discount on gas
Ukraine spends $12B per year on gas, so this is effectively $4B per year on top of the loan.

EU deal:
Around $5B, but with major austerity conditions, no gas discount, and Russia made it clear that if Ukraine went with EU trade association, it would be subject to same tariffs as EU countries. Meanwhile Ukrainian exports would be subjected to tough EU standards, which most of them didn't meet.

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/putin’s-gas-fueled-bailout-ukraine

Financially, the Russian deal was a no-brainer. Ukraine needed $15B immediately to stay solvent. At the time, EU was not offering anywhere near that, and with major flies in the ointment they did offer. Yanukovich was corrupt, but in this case, he made the only choice he could have made as Ukrainian president.

 

[Gintaras]

I'm interested in what Putin might do.

Fern, are you really that retarded asking such question?

In return, I'd like to as a retard:

What Obama/US would do, if russians were surrounding US - in Canada and Mexico?

However, now, US/NATO try to surround Russia...not the other way...

Not Russia does want "go back to USSR", but communist-switchable European Union together with US do want to establish New World Order...too many financial crimes - unsupervised money printing - $$$ and euros...to large debt - China...

Want to experience Germany's 1945?

 

[Gintaras]

How long it could last - could it be a Fairy Tale:

Most production-goods are made in China, India...etc...

Money are printed in US/EU?

Isn't it a counterfeit money?

A war will write-off all debts?

 

[norseamd]

3. Wait. Putin is familiar with what happened in Russia in the 90s. People were hopeful that after USSR collapsed, Russia would become a European style capitalist country. Instead they got economic shock therapy austerity imposed as condition of western loans, resulting economic collapse, separatism, anarchy, etc, all of which turned generations of Russians against western values and longing for an authoritarian leadership to restore order.

the attitude of may russian people has now swung in the other direction. interesting they get a stronger russia and a whole lot more with it. everything that happened after the soviet union collapsed by the way was very bad.

 

[theeedude]

the attitude of may russian people has now swung in the other direction. interesting they get a stronger russia and a whole lot more with it. everything that happened after the soviet union collapsed by the way was very bad.

Yes, Russia has its own problems, with Putin being one. I am just saying what I think Putin will do in Ukraine, and reasoning behind it. He knows people will turn against the new government if there is no stability and economic recovery, and he has the power to both destabilize Ukraine and hinder its economy.

 

[Fern]

3.
-snip-
On top of that, if they open up borders to EU trade, Russia will close its borders, and raise tariffs and gas prices. Entire industries in Ukraine that depend on exports to Russia and cheap gas will become uncompetitive and collapse. Do you think Europeans are interested in having cheap Ukrainian goods competing with their industries? Of course Russia will also stir the separatist pot in the southeast, but more to create additional problems for the new government in Kiev and hasten its collapse, than to seize those areas outright.

That makes sense to me.

BTW: I can see that they're dependent on Russia for about 35% of their gas, but I can't find what % of their trade is with Russia. I am seeing that quite a bit is with the EU and other former members of the USSR.

Do you know how much is with Russia?

Does Putin have enough influence over the other former USSR countries to have them stop trading or jack up tariffs with the Ukraine?

Fern

 

[theeedude]

That makes sense to me.

BTW: I can see that they're dependent on Russia for about 35% of their gas, but I can't find what % of their trade is with Russia. I am seeing that quite a bit is with the EU and other former members of the USSR.

Do you know how much is with Russia?

Does Putin have enough influence over the other former USSR countries to have them stop trading or jack up tariffs with the Ukraine?

Fern

Google turned up this interesting site:
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/country/ukr/

Major exports: Semifinished products of iron or nonalloy steel (11%), Hot rolled iron or non-alloy steel, coil,w >600mm, t >10mm, myp 355 mpa (6%), Iron ores and concentrates (5%), Sunflower-seed or safflower oil, crude (4%), Petroleum oils, refined (4%)
Major imports: Petroleum gases (14%), Petroleum oils, refined (7%), Petroleum oils, crude (7%), Medicaments, packaged (3%), Coal; briquettes (3%)
Major trade partners (exports): Russia (25%), Turkey (6%), Italy (5%), Egypt (4%), Belarus (3%)
Major trade partners (imports): Russia (36%), Germany (9%), China (8%), Poland (6%), Belarus (4%)

I would count Belarus as well, since it's in free trade zone with Russia that Ukraine will leave if it associates with EU trade zone. Plus a lot of the energy intensive refining, chemical, and metallurgical exports from eastern Ukraine are subsidized with cheap Russian gas, and in many cases would not be competitive without such subsidy.

 

[Jaskalas]

Will Russia move in with military to destroy the opposition now that Ukraine has surrendered to its own citizens?

no

'MILITARY INVASION AND OCCUPATION'

Crimea has been seized by "Russia". Wonder how far they take this.

Given the number of Russians in Ukraine it's a legitmate question if the Russian gunmen seizing Crimea are from within or without. It's entirely possible Russian military forces are not directly involved so much as it's the Ukrainians doing it themselves.

Naturally the new Ukraine government will scream and cry invasion by Russia. They want the rest of the world to come in and cleanse Ukraine of Russian loyalists. Even if they aren't from Russia. So this would be a critical distinction that needs answering.

It looks like the borders of Ukraine will be changed.

 

[Jaskalas]

Russia admits that it has moved troops in Ukraine

Getting more complicated. Aside from the fact that Russia can do whatever it wants. It still does not answer the question of whether it is Russia who has seized the government buildings, seized the airports, and blocked the roads in Crimea, or if local pro-Russia militant groups are also involved.

 

[Abwx]

They are purging the outgoing regime because the outgoing regime was using snipers on its own civilians and kidnapping and torturing the opposition when in power.

That s all lies , 20 policemen were killed , i suppose that
they were snipped...

All in all a disgusting fascist coup, be sure that they
made their best to have people killed so they could use
it as argument for their Mussolini like power overtake,
they have lost the previous polls and simply wanted the
legal power to be overthrown , that s how fascists think,
they have no respect for the people will.

 

[maddogchen]

Russia is going to steamroll over Ukraine. They got their special forces grabbing airfields already. And they are moving troops to grab naval bases.

Fun times! World war 3 just around the corner

 

[Jaskalas]

Russia is going to steamroll over Ukraine. They got their special forces grabbing airfields already. And they are moving troops to grab naval bases.

Fun times! World war 3 just around the corner

Is it not with high confidence that we can state Ukraine stands alone?

Not seeing calls for WW3 over them.