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Gun sales continuing to skyrocket through 2013

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Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,586
11
76
Chicago has much stricter gun laws than New York City. Chicago's homicide rate is ten times higher than New York City's.

Plenty of cities with draconian firearm laws have high homicide rates, and plenty of cities awash in firearms don't. The only "conclusion" that can be drawn is that gun laws' impact on violent crime is inconclusive.
I hoped he'd come to that conclusion on his own based on the fact that gun crimes still happen in cities with minimal legal gun ownership.
 

RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
81
So you're buying guns out of the fear that they'd be confiscated which was exactly my point in the first place. Why did it take you so long to confirm what I posted two pages ago?!?!?
No, I didn't confirm it. I've said people in NY can fear grabbers. I never feared having guns grabbed in my state; I bought some PMAGs because I feared a magazine ban, and I maintain gun grabbing is illegal on so many levels. Most of my guns are old enough to escape all regulation.

Confirmation bias, much?

The greater the fear the more likely that fear will come to pass. We create what we fear out of the irrationality it produces. Some what to protect themselves with guns and others want to be protected from them. How you see it depends to a great degree on where you live. Each side should try to understand the other, but the fanatics and the fear mongers will make that impossible.
Whoa, of all the people to say that, I didn't expect it to be YOU. :cool:

I completely agree; I think some gun regulation CAN be added to help. I also think we should look at current regulation and see if it helps at all, if it's enforceable and how to better enforce what's there. I don't see how adding more regulation when you have issues enforcing what's already on the books helps.

I however would love to see laws such as "mentally unstable people cannot even HANDLE a gun in a store."* unstable meaning on certain drugs (anti-depressants, hormones), known suicidal tenancies and so forth. I think all gun sales (even private) needing a fast approval is a good thing, and as such approvals should be free to complete (open the database to the public - it's only open to FFLs right now.) But you also need to figure out how to stop illegal sales, and get the illegal guns off the street.

The extremes WILL be the end of gun ownership.

* - I say this because I have an unstable coworker. I was in serious fear of them buying a gun to shoot me. They were escorted by cops to the hospital, left a letter on my desk at work that was pretty crazy, and are on hormones. The definition of "shouldn't be let near a gun."
 
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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
66,244
3,042
126
What are you, new? I've been in two domestic shootings (one at my home, one after stumbling upon a nearly lethal "gay bashing,") in the late 90s and drawn a pistol to discourage what I perceived to be imminent violence several times in my life. I carry a pistol 95% of the time I leave the house.

I've also been in plenty of gun fights through multiple tours in Afghanistan.

I've never been in one as a reserve police officer, because I only work parades, and everyone loves a parade. :D

I'm not Rambo, Special Forces or a badass, but I've traveled all over the world and I know how things go when the bad guys have guns and the good guys don't. I hope to never see that happen here.
If you have been to Afghanistan several times you would think you might also know how it goes with both bad guys and good guys have them.
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,570
2
0
You don't know what 'trend' means I guess.
Says the guy who drew a line from 50 to 35 from another poll, completely ignoring large fluctuations, refusing to even acknowledge potential offsetting factors and called it a "trend". Even putting Gallup's data into excel and plotting a straight (least accurate) trendline it comes out to 10%, check your math, or rather do your math in the first place.


Also I'd like to point out that as recent as two years ago, we were talking about the "highest gun ownership since 1993".
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/Self-Reported-Gun-Ownership-Highest-1993.aspx


Statistics are fickle things. 2 more years and your "trend" could very well have reversed itself, if it hasn't already.
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,570
2
0
If you have been to Afghanistan several times you would think you might also know how it goes with both bad guys and good guys have them.
There are good guys in Afghanistan? I mean native ones? I thought they all died or left when the Monarchy fell.
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,586
11
76
There are good guys in Afghanistan? I mean native ones? I thought they all died or left when the Monarchy fell.
Didn't see that, I've had Moonbeam blocked for years now.

It's very hard to separate the good guys and the bad guys from even an ideological perspective in Afghanistan. I prefer to use America as a great example of what happens when the good guys and the bad guys have guns.
 

MagickMan

Diamond Member
Aug 11, 2008
7,537
3
76
I posted 3 independent polls and the conclusions of both a left wing and a right wing newspaper. All five conclude that the number of households owning guns has declined over the past forty years. If you're uncomfortable with that, you can believe whatever you want.

Can't help ya.
None of it discounts what I said, at all. :confused:
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
27,619
7,383
136
Says the guy who drew a line from 50 to 35 from another poll, completely ignoring large fluctuations, refusing to even acknowledge potential offsetting factors and called it a "trend". Even putting Gallup's data into excel and plotting a straight (least accurate) trendline it comes out to 10%, check your math, or rather do your math in the first place.


Also I'd like to point out that as recent as two years ago, we were talking about the "highest gun ownership since 1993".
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/Self-Reported-Gun-Ownership-Highest-1993.aspx


Statistics are fickle things. 2 more years and your "trend" could very well have reversed itself, if it hasn't already.

Why not just chart 2005-2011 to make your point? I mean if you are going to be dishonest about the data why not just make the shit up? Why not be like the other posters and just make up some conspiracy like people aren't answering the (anonymous) poll questions honestly?

Yes statistics are a fickle thing, it's typically why outliers are taken into account, one time blips in any direction doesn't a trend make;)

Use excel and plot all the data and then add a trend line and post the results, the line will be flat or slightly declining but I think we can all agree, it certainly isn't rising.
 

RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
81
Why not be like the other posters and just make up some conspiracy like people aren't answering the (anonymous) poll questions honestly?
I expect no less from you; try to make my point go away by calling it a conspiracy. Such antics aren't uncommon for a post bearing your name.

My point is logical. I stated that the ACTUAL numbers of ownership are equal to or greater than those presented in the chart. There is no gun register in this country and the NICS check if called in when someone buys a gun does not actually record the buyer's info, preventing any proper information to be drawn from the NICS checks.

As such, there is no finite or easy way to sum up gun ownership; accuracy relies on good polling, and truthful answers...two variables; I know personally many people who would not answer the question of "do you own a gun" to some random person on the phone by either hanging up, or saying no. How many gun owners here would answer truthfully? On this forum? Let's get a roll call.

Are some people hoarding? Yes.
Do some people simply own more than one gun? Yes.
Are some of the sales we see now simply people buying MORE guns, as opposed to a first gun? Yes.
Are there NEW gun owners though? Yes. I've watched them show up over the last year and pay insane prices because "I've always wanted a gun, but they might be illegal to sell soon so I need to buy now!" I watched a SCAR16 sell for 7.5k; that gun retails for 2k normally. But that guy was afraid it'd be banned, and he had always wanted it. He was a first time owner.

Let's face it: some people sold their guns to police departments. Smart people bought those guns off people BEFORE the police got them (I missed out - I really should have walked down to Seattle PD with 1000 in hand. At $200 a gun, that's 5 guns...flash a CPL to show I'm not a felon and most people will trust me.) Yet more people are buying NEW guns.

The numbers in those charts are the MINIMUM numbers I believe. The real numbers, AS I SAID CLEARLY BEFORE, are EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN.
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,586
11
76
Let's face it: some people sold their guns to police departments. Smart people bought those guns off people BEFORE the police got them (I missed out - I really should have walked down to Seattle PD with 1000 in hand. At $200 a gun, that's 5 guns...flash a CPL to show I'm not a felon and most people will trust me.) Yet more people are buying NEW guns.
I know some guys with badges that went to buy guns out of this line. Let's just say that the DPD officers working the event were... less than impressed.
 

Daverino

Platinum Member
Mar 15, 2007
2,004
1
0
What are you, new? I've been in two domestic shootings (one at my home, one after stumbling upon a nearly lethal "gay bashing,") in the late 90s and drawn a pistol to discourage what I perceived to be imminent violence several times in my life. I carry a pistol 95% of the time I leave the house.

I've also been in plenty of gun fights through multiple tours in Afghanistan.

I've never been in one as a reserve police officer, because I only work parades, and everyone loves a parade. :D

I'm not Rambo, Special Forces or a badass, but I've traveled all over the world and I know how things go when the bad guys have guns and the good guys don't. I hope to never see that happen here.
Once upon a time, on the internet, I knew a guy. He was a Captain in the Air Force. He was part of a gaming group I was in with a number of other vets and they were all convinced that he was exactly who he said he was. All his locations and lingo matched up correctly, it was obvious he was in the service. He said he worked with a pararescue unit, although he never said he was a PJ.

One day he lets us all know he's got to ship out to Afghanistan. We wish him luck and off he goes. A few months later he gets back in touch with the group. He is in Landstuhl after surviving an IED hit. His back is screwed up and he will be there for a while but otherwise OK and should return to the US in a few months.

Another member of our group is a Lt Col in the Air Force. It takes him little effort to determine that no officer has been wounded in Afghanistan any time recently. Poking around the internet he finds information on the guy such as a blog and a dating site. Turns out our wounded warrior was never in Afghanistan. He was never in the Air Force. He was a civilian who worked at an air base. In total, he was a complete fraud.

So.

I'm not interested in your personal story because it could be anything you want it to be. I could tell you that I have a Ph.D. from an Ivy League school and do statistics for a living. I would even tell you that that is true. There's no reason for you to believe me and I wouldn't expect you to.
 

Puddle Jumper

Platinum Member
Nov 4, 2009
2,835
1
0
And actually, the math for your ammo seems off, if you're going through 300 rounds a month, for 9mm rounds, that looks to be around $90 a month on the low end (realistically, higher based on ammo that's readily available), which would translate to $1080 a year. I'm seeing some prices online for almost $2 a round for 9mm, so that would be $600 a month/$7200 a year... so probably somewhere inbetween.
No one pays $2 a round for target ammo, a quick search shows plenty of sites with 9mm in stock for $0.25 a round.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,321
2
0
Then that would mean that a city with an unarmed populace such as New York City would have a much higher crime rate than an well armed city such as Houston, Texas. However Houston's homicide rate is twice that of New York City.

Next argument please. . .
And Washington DC with some of the strictest laws has almost twice that of Houston.
 

Puddle Jumper

Platinum Member
Nov 4, 2009
2,835
1
0
So thirty years of polling data is not relevant because you think people are lying. This leads me to conclude that:

1. You don't know anything about statistics
2. You thought Romney was totally going to win in 2012.
If anyone I don't personally know and trust asks if I own guns the answer is no, despite the fact that I bought 4 guns in the past 12 months.
 

RampantAndroid

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2004
6,591
3
81
No one pays $2 a round for target ammo, a quick search shows plenty of sites with 9mm in stock for $0.25 a round.
And actually, the math for your ammo seems off, if you're going through 300 rounds a month, for 9mm rounds, that looks to be around $90 a month on the low end (realistically, higher based on ammo that's readily available), which would translate to $1080 a year. I'm seeing some prices online for almost $2 a round for 9mm, so that would be $600 a month/$7200 a year... so probably somewhere inbetween.
Oh I missed this gem. You didn't look very well, or saw defense ammo. Plinking ammo is around $.24 per round:
http://ammoseek.com/ammo/9mm-luger/-handgun-grains-target

Itpeaked towards $1 a round at my range, and I didn't buy; online it was better, but not MUCH better (see my explanation on why ammo prices spiked - it's my first post in this thread.)

No one pays $2 per round to plink unless it's exceptional quality 30 caliber rounds meant for a competition.

I know some guys with badges that went to buy guns out of this line. Let's just say that the DPD officers working the event were... less than impressed.
Heh, I doubt they'd be impressed with ANYONE buying a gun from their buyback program.
 

brandonb

Diamond Member
Oct 17, 2006
3,731
1
0
Once upon a time, on the internet, I knew a guy. <snip>
Yup. This is a common thing with you. You like to discount everything anybody says to you when you don't agree with them. As you put it, they can make up any stories they want on the internet. So you just don't have to believe them. Instead you can put your fingers in your ears and say "lalalala."

That's your choice. But that almost makes you as useless as a troll on the forum. Nothing you say has substance since it's a 1 way street with you. You can pat whoever you want on the back, and if someone has a different opinion, it's "made up."
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,570
2
0
Why not just chart 2005-2011 to make your point? I mean if you are going to be dishonest about the data why not just make the shit up? Why not be like the other posters and just make up some conspiracy like people aren't answering the (anonymous) poll questions honestly?

Yes statistics are a fickle thing, it's typically why outliers are taken into account, one time blips in any direction doesn't a trend make;)

Use excel and plot all the data and then add a trend line and post the results, the line will be flat or slightly declining but I think we can all agree, it certainly isn't rising.
I just pointed out that a simple trendline showed guns per household was declining by 10% according to Gallup's data since 1960. How am I being dishonest again?

However as others have said, that statistic is rather meaningless especially considering it doesn't include 2013 data or account for numerous offsetting factors.
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,586
11
76
Once upon a time, on the internet, I knew a guy. He was a Captain in the Air Force. He was part of a gaming group I was in with a number of other vets and they were all convinced that he was exactly who he said he was. All his locations and lingo matched up correctly, it was obvious he was in the service. He said he worked with a pararescue unit, although he never said he was a PJ.

One day he lets us all know he's got to ship out to Afghanistan. We wish him luck and off he goes. A few months later he gets back in touch with the group. He is in Landstuhl after surviving an IED hit. His back is screwed up and he will be there for a while but otherwise OK and should return to the US in a few months.

Another member of our group is a Lt Col in the Air Force. It takes him little effort to determine that no officer has been wounded in Afghanistan any time recently. Poking around the internet he finds information on the guy such as a blog and a dating site. Turns out our wounded warrior was never in Afghanistan. He was never in the Air Force. He was a civilian who worked at an air base. In total, he was a complete fraud.

So.

I'm not interested in your personal story because it could be anything you want it to be. I could tell you that I have a Ph.D. from an Ivy League school and do statistics for a living. I would even tell you that that is true. There's no reason for you to believe me and I wouldn't expect you to.
Well, seeing as how this forum is littered with pictures I've posted of me in Afghanistan, you're welcome to be the guy here who doesn't believe me. I think that just makes you look silly and\or uninformed though.

I'd believe most anyone here who told me they had a PhD from an Ivy league university because we have a pretty well-educated crowd around here.

My "personal story" was relevant to the discussion, in the way that anecdotes are.
 

Daverino

Platinum Member
Mar 15, 2007
2,004
1
0
Yup. This is a common thing with you. You like to discount everything anybody says to you when you don't agree with them. As you put it, they can make up any stories they want on the internet. So you just don't have to believe them. Instead you can put your fingers in your ears and say "lalalala."

That's your choice. But that almost makes you as useless as a troll on the forum. Nothing you say has substance since it's a 1 way street with you. You can pat whoever you want on the back, and if someone has a different opinion, it's "made up."
No.

I like evidence. I disregard anecdotes.

The evidence shows that the percentage of gun owning households has declined over the past 40 years. A lot of anecdotal reasons have been given as to why the sources I posted are wrong. But nobody has yet to show any evidence that the percentage of gun owning households have increased in the past 40 years. No poll, no NRA data, nothing. We know that the number of guns owned in America has increased where there are over 90 guns for every 100 people in the country. If gun ownership were even somewhat evenly distributed, that would imply that very close to 100% of all households would own a gun. But we know that's not true.

So how does the number of guns per capita increase while the number of households owning a gun go down. As correctly pointed out there are twice as many households in the United States now as there were in the 1960s. Which logically means that there are more households with guns in total. But that wouldn't explain a per capita increase. A per capita increase can only be explained by:

1. An increasing percentage of Americans owning guns
2. Existing gun owners buying multiple firearms.

The second conclusion is backed up by an Injury Prevention Journal article from 2007 (actually done at Harvard for real) which shows that about 65% of all guns in America are owned by 20% of Americans. The study showed that gun owners who reported owning at least four guns, on average, owned twelve. Now of course you could disregard THAT study too, which would mean you're now trashing 4 independent pieces that support the same conclusion.

So I have stated my hypothesis that increasing gun sales is likely a continuation of the trend of existing gun owners buying more guns, rather than an increase of proportion of the population that are now gun owners. I've given four pieces of evidence to support my hypothesis: The GSS Survey, Pew Research, Gallup and Injury Prevention. If you want to put my tail between my legs, please find some evidence (peer reviewed studies are good, as are statistically relevant polls) that show my hypothesis is false. Do not tell me about the time you used a gun to stop a burglar. Do not tell me 'I think all those studies are wrong.' I try never to use my personal experiences to prove a point because they are just that: personal. They only relate to my small snippet of the world's reality. AND, because it's the internet, I can always just make shit up.

DocSavageFan and I got into an interesting argument about Medicaid expansion and the effect on ER consumption. He stated that expanding Medicaid would expand ER use and I said that wasn't likely. He posted a number of journal articles that showed he was correct. I learned something new that day and I hold THAT as a good experience on these forums.
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,586
11
76
Personally I feel that it's obvious that there are a significant amount of Americans stockpiling guns. There has been a small increase in the number of gun owning households, but there has been an absolute explosion in gun buying by those who already own guns. When the Sandy Hook panic rolled around, everyone I knew that owned guns was scrambling to buy as many as they could get. I did see a few poor suckers wandering into the gun stores without a clue, looking to get their first AR-15 and getting taken by unscrupulous dealers, but they were in the minority.

But that's all a pointless anecdote according to some. Frankly, I think what Daverino is looking for is the Discussion Club forum.
 

Daverino

Platinum Member
Mar 15, 2007
2,004
1
0
But that's all a pointless anecdote according to some. Frankly, I think what Daverino is looking for is the Discussion Club forum.
No. I still like going all the way down the pyramid when some asshat like Nehalem shows up.
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,586
11
76
The fear-driven crowd are pretty comical.
I thought it was interesting that the police & military only dealers were cleaned out almost as fast as the regular gun stores. I had a buddy (fellow Army CPT) that drove 4 hours to an LE\MIL gun store to buy 3 LWRC rifles at over $2k a pop during the panic. I mean, the price was normal for LWRC, but the guy already owns over 100 assault rifles (pretty much every cool thing you could think of, converted G36, Tavor, AUG, MSAR, etc.)

My dad's in the same camp, constantly buying more and more guns and ammunition that he never shoots.

I just see the panics as money making opportunities, because I know there's no chance of national gun control passing anytime soon. I had some schmuck writing me checks out of his retirement account a year ago. :rolleyes:
 

Nebor

Lifer
Jun 24, 2003
29,586
11
76
No. I still like going all the way down the pyramid when some asshat like Nehalem shows up.
If we could rid this place of the mouth breathers like Incorruptible, and the people who take it way too seriously, like you and eskimopy, then this forum might actually fit the "Social" description and be a fun sideline to a bunch of tech forums. I so rarely feel like other posters have fun posting in P&N (which is why it has such a bad rep in the other forums,) but instead are just needlessly jacking their blood pressure up before they kick their dogs and break their keyboards.
 

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