Election prediction thread

[umbrella39]

We need to win ballot initiatives like in Michigan & to win statehouses in 2020 to control reapportionment after the census. If not, the GOP will gerrymander honest representation into oblivion. The big data & computer algorithm tools at their disposal are much more powerful than back in 2010.

Very much this... I fear the only solution in the immediate future and a very impractical one is to relocate to the red areas they are trying to create out of thin air is these grossly gerrymandered districts. We like to move every 5 years or so and fix up, enjoy for a few years, then flip. We are due for another move soon and I have no problem moving back to a district where I can dilute the redTardation of the area down a bit.

That's why I always chuckle at the fools here who always wail about California always voting blue. Move there and fix it. I would if I could afford to live there...

Anyhow no amount of crayon scribblings with districts will prevent the inevitable relegation of white folks to the minority... How long can the right wing lunatic fringe called modern day Republicans hold on to minority control is the question now...

 

[WelshBloke]

We need to win ballot initiatives like in Michigan & to win statehouses in 2020 to control reapportionment after the census. If not, the GOP will gerrymander honest representation into oblivion. The big data & computer algorithm tools at their disposal are much more powerful than back in 2010.

We have this thing...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boundary_commissions_(United_Kingdom)

Which takes itself pretty seriously.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

absolutely no idea how this is going to shake out. And the hyperbolic statements saying this is the most important election in our lifetime may not be all that hyperbolic.

 

[Jhhnn]

If there's a systemic polling error in favor of the GOP, it's going to be a disaster for Democrats. Polls are showing 8-9 points ahead, but Democrats can't take much lower than that without getting sweeped.

That seems unlikely. If anything, I figure it's the other way. GOP'ers are eager to give their opinion about everything. Dems are just gonna turn out the vote. We set our sights on that when Trump won & we've been working on it ever since.

Trump & the GOP have done a lot of wildly unpopular things in 2 years, things that aren't even winners among their voting base. Unease about their intentions permeates the discourse, rightfully so. Other than the immigration ravers, it's hard to find a lot of enthusiasm over there.

 

[BUTCH1]

absolutely no idea how this is going to shake out. And the hyperbolic statements saying this is the most important election in our lifetime may not be all that hyperbolic.

Yea, agree, here in FL it's nuts, we have a black man running for Governor for the 1st time ever (and ahead 2%+ in every poll) vs a Trump A-hole Rick Desantis. He actually ran an ad showing his 4yr old building a Trump wall and reading a Trump book before bedtime, yuk. Then we have ex Governor Rick Scott dipping into his own pocket trying for Bill Nelsons senate seat, the attack ad's for both these races have been vicious, the GOP headquarters 1.5 miles from me got shot up last Sunday PM. If the Dems can get out some of the younger voters we can maul these asshole*, thet run on no real platform, just outright lies about insurance, "don't worry, we'll look after those with pre existing conditions" to open race-baiting. Should be fun, go Blue!!!.

 

[Maxima1]

That seems unlikely. If anything, I figure it's the other way. GOP'ers are eager to give their opinion about everything. Dems are just gonna turn out the vote. We set our sights on that when Trump won & we've been working on it ever since.

Trump & the GOP have done a lot of wildly unpopular things in 2 years, things that aren't even winners among their voting base. Unease about their intentions permeates the discourse, rightfully so. Other than the immigration ravers, it's hard to find a lot of enthusiasm over there.

What precludes an error slanted in favor of the GOP? The Democrats would still do "well", but because of the gerrymandering and the crappy Senate battlegrounds, it could end in disaster.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

What precludes an error slanted in favor of the GOP? The Democrats would still do "well", but because of the gerrymandering and the crappy Senate battlegrounds, it could end in disaster.

Post 2016 I don’t trust Polls

 

[Maxima1]

I'm worried about this as well. It's chump change for people like Adelson, and then they ask for it all back and then some once the election is done.

 

[Jhhnn]

What precludes an error slanted in favor of the GOP? The Democrats would still do "well", but because of the gerrymandering and the crappy Senate battlegrounds, it could end in disaster.

I don't see the GOP frothed up to the fever pitch they had in 2016 or Dems beat down with the relentless slime attack against Hillary. Turnout is key, not polls. Dems have a lot of room to move in that, unlike the GOP. That's particularly true in low turnout states like Texas.

 

[dank69]

More people vote for Democrats than at any other time in history but it is not enough to overcome the gerrymandering for the House and not enough to take the Senate. Trump is safe to fire anyone involved in investigating him.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Trump is safe to fire anyone involved in investigating him.

The House is going Dem, but I do expect Mueller to be shown the door or a basement closet. There is one possibility that makes that irrelevant and that would be the "roadmap" where the GJ submits its findings to the House Judiciary Committee, just the same as was going to happen with Nixon and the real reason he resigned. It was something he couldn't control.

 

[Jhhnn]

The House is going Dem, but I do expect Mueller to be shown the door or a basement closet. There is one possibility that makes that irrelevant and that would be the "roadmap" where the GJ submits its findings to the House Judiciary Committee, just the same as was going to happen with Nixon and the real reason he resigned. It was something he couldn't control.

I doubt that. It's utterly impossible for Trump to squelch the work of the Special Counsel's office. It's gone too far & it's too big for that already. The country won't put up with it any more than they would put up with Nixon's Saturday night massacre. Whatever they find will come out, one way or another.

 

[Greenman]

There isn't any reason why the investigation findings should be released. I would assume it's it's handed to the AG, congress, or presented to a grand jury. We might never know what's in the final report.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

There isn't any reason why the investigation findings should be released.

It's an absolute necessity. We are talking about the potential criminality of the Executive of the United States of America. Any suppression would be considered a coverup regardless of findings. It would be like hiding Watergate.

If Trump is guilty of criminality or wrongdoing then it needs to come out or the government and our institutions will have lost all credibility. If Trump is vindicated then the public needs to know that no matter what they think of him there is no legal basis for prosecution found.

To hide this could result in riots and potential loss of life, bombings on and on. This the most serious investigation imaginable short of homicide or plotting the overthrow of the government via treason.

 

[Jhhnn]

There isn't any reason why the investigation findings should be released. I would assume it's it's handed to the AG, congress, or presented to a grand jury. We might never know what's in the final report.

Not likely, all things considered. The rat factor & the likelihood of more indictments loom large in the near future. Trump is already an un-named co-conspirator in Cohen's guilty plea. He'll probably be included in more, too. All of that is highly public.

Beyond that, A Dem HOR won't even begin to put up with it.

 

[Commodus]

There isn't any reason why the investigation findings should be released. I would assume it's it's handed to the AG, congress, or presented to a grand jury. We might never know what's in the final report.

Public accountability? I'd think it would be fairly obvious: Trump and the Republicans will pretend the results are meaningless unless they're out in the open. This is the President -- if we can't find out whether or not he colluded with Russia or otherwise broke the law, is it really a government for the people?

 

[Moonbeam]

My hands are clean. I am blaming both sides for whatever happens.

 

[JSt0rm]

the issue is we have about 40 million hard core nazi white people.

 

[Greenman]

I'm not expressing an opinion either way. I just don't see why it would be released. I would assume a great deal of it is privileged information.

 

[Jhhnn]

I'm not expressing an opinion either way. I just don't see why it would be released. I would assume a great deal of it is privileged information.

There may be some redactions for national security purposes. You know, names & methods. If Trump is the national security problem that obviously won't be redacted.

 

[rvborgh]

Republicans keep both house and Senate.

 

[rvborgh]

Why would you squelch something when you know no wrong has been done by you? As a Deplorable what i am more worried about is how D's are going to psychologically cope when the report says that there was no Russian collusion and no obstruction of justice. The investigation is kind of a thorn in Trump's side, and a way for D's to have some hope, but in the end they are going to be rather disappointed i think.

btw, who do you think has more enthusiasm... the Deplorables or the other side

https://twitter.com/Jamierodr10/status/1058431413719056386

I doubt that. It's utterly impossible for Trump to squelch the work of the Special Counsel's office. It's gone too far & it's too big for that already. The country won't put up with it any more than they would put up with Nixon's Saturday night massacre. Whatever they find will come out, one way or another.

 

[UberNeuman]

There may be some redactions for national security purposes. You know, names & methods. If Trump is the national security problem that obviously won't be redacted.

lol. He's just playing his "i dun't know why" routine because the truth coming out would ruin the security field of his bubble.

 

[Jhhnn]

Why would you squelch something when you know no wrong has been done by you? As a Deplorable what i am more worried about is how D's are going to psychologically cope when the report says that there was no Russian collusion and no obstruction of justice. The investigation is kind of a thorn in Trump's side, and a way for D's to have some hope, but in the end they are going to be rather disappointed i think.

btw, who do you think has more enthusiasm... the Deplorables or the other side

https://twitter.com/Jamierodr10/status/1058431413719056386

I think you're whistling past the graveyard. That was Trump at the boy scout jamboree last year, btw. They're not necessarily fans or even old enough to vote, but, uhh, nice try, anyway.

 

[rvborgh]

Trump's rallys are huge compared to anything the other side draws... but anyways... we'll see the results in a few days

I think you're whistling past the graveyard. That was Trump at the boy scout jamboree last year, btw. They're not necessarily fans or even old enough to vote, but, uhh, nice try, anyway.