DOW up 3.3% year to date. When does the "winning" start?

Page 8 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
25,572
10,255
136
Does this Administration understand that elections don't work like a major league draft? I pray they aren't gonna pull a Sixers and intentionally tank the economy if Dems take the House.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,953
55,323
136
Does anybody remember when the stock market would go up consistently 10-20% per year and not go down 4% a day for weeks at a time? It was before Donald Trump's tax cuts for the rich and his tariff trade war.


Those were the good old days, the Obama economy will be looked upon as the peak of US civilization one day.

S&P average rate of return with dividends reinvested is ~10%. That means plenty of years below 10%.

Judging presidential performance by the stock market is a dumb idea when the market is doing poorly the same as when its doing well. The two just aren't that related. Of course Trump deserves whatever criticism he's getting now because he tried to take credit for it doing well so screw him.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
S&P average rate of return with dividends reinvested is ~10%. That means plenty of years below 10%.

Judging presidential performance by the stock market is a dumb idea when the market is doing poorly the same as when its doing well. The two just aren't that related. Of course Trump deserves whatever criticism he's getting now because he tried to take credit for it doing well so screw him.

You seriously don't think his trade war has anything to do with current performance (YTD) of the indexes?
 
Jan 25, 2011
17,076
9,554
146
Yesterdays rebound officially gone...

Been a lot more hectic trading day today compared to the rest of the week.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
26,042
12,274
136
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. Should of sold my FB when it was above 200. Got real close, but greed..........
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,953
55,323
136
You seriously don't think his trade war has anything to do with current performance (YTD) of the indexes?

I suspect it didn't have nearly as much to do with it as the fed raising rates. Now of course you could say that's due to Trump's policies too as he's engaging in massive fiscal stimulus in an economy at full employment, but I would caution against reading too much into it.

Regardless though, if you actually think you know why the market is moving then you should use that knowledge to make yourself a shitload of money.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
More winning as Dow down 350 points (from up 350 earlier) and Nasdaq at the 7,000 level. All because of a report that the cheeto admin has already put in a plan to tariff the remaining 257 billion in Chinese goods if talks don't produce during the next meeting between the two.

Once you get the boulder rolling down the hill, it's hard to stop.

Edit: Down 400 now. Nasdaq down 185. Down just bounced off of the 52 week low and the Nasdaq hung around the 7,000 level. Capitulation coming?

Edit: All 3 major indexes into correction territory with Morgan Stanley now calling for a Bear Market (20% down). Like I said...the boulder is rolling and cheeto admin is giving it a big ole push.

Edit: Down down 530 with Nasdaq down 240. Significance is that the Dow was UP 350 this morning. This is a 900 point intraday swing.

Edit: Down 350 now. Swinging hard both ways. All fucked up for sure.
 
Last edited:

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,930
3,909
136
It had been funny seeing all the tea partiers, who formerly wanted to tear it all down, become Wall Street cheerleaders the last year. I am going to miss that.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,857
31,346
146
Trolling because i will not bow to Obama and Hillary... Suck on...

It's not about your refusal to "bow to Obama or Hillary."

It's about your curious refusal to bow to the universal standard of observation-based evidenciary precedence.
 
  • Like
Reactions: uclaLabrat

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,676
5,239
136
More winning as Dow down 350 points (from up 350 earlier) and Nasdaq at the 7,000 level. All because of a report that the cheeto admin has already put in a plan to tariff the remaining 257 billion in Chinese goods if talks don't produce during the next meeting between the two.

Once you get the boulder rolling down the hill, it's hard to stop.

Edit: Down 400 now. Nasdaq down 185. Down just bounced off of the 52 week low and the Nasdaq hung around the 7,000 level. Capitulation coming?

Edit: All 3 major indexes into correction territory with Morgan Stanley now calling for a Bear Market (20% down). Like I said...the boulder is rolling and cheeto admin is giving it a big ole push.

Edit: Down down 530 with Nasdaq down 240. Significance is that the Dow was UP 350 this morning. This is a 900 point intraday swing.

Edit: Down 350 now. Swinging hard both ways. All fucked up for sure.

Goddammit. Was hoping for some sort of bounce back so I could sell some into cash.

What a mess
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,486
2,363
136
Goddammit. Was hoping for some sort of bounce back so I could sell some into cash.

What a mess
Markets were up almost 2% for the first half of the day today. If nothing major happens in the next few months it might go back up once buybacks resume.
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,676
5,239
136
Markets were up almost 2% for the first half of the day today. If nothing major happens in the next few months it might go back up once buybacks resume.

Yeah, which is a worrying sign. Looks like the market wanted to bounce, but flew like a lead balloon.

Makes me concerned what's coming next
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Markets were up almost 2% for the first half of the day today. If nothing major happens in the next few months it might go back up once buybacks resume.

Only if Cheeto kills the tariffs IMO



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
There was an announcement that Trump is planning another 250B in tariffs if his upcoming meeting with Xi doesn't go well (it won't). That's what sent the market crashing after 3pm.



This market is such a shit show and now the Fed has to raise rates no matter what because Cheeto jesus decided he had to open his fat mouth and criticize the Fed. What a fvcking moron.
 

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
Only if Cheeto kills the tariffs IMO



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


He is sweating. He knows he can't force Xi into conceding and he knows his Tariffs are destroying the bull market but he has dug himself a deep hole and the only way out is capitulating to China. It will be interesting to see if he tries to make a "deal" like he did with Canada that basically gives us nothing but which he can call a "win" anyway.

My guess is he puts more tariffs on and the market continues to flounder until the democrats win the house and take his tariff powers away.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bitek

Paul98

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2010
3,732
199
106
With Job numbers at the end of the week, Facebook and Apple reporting later this week. Could be an interesting week
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
There was an announcement that Trump is planning another 250B in tariffs if his upcoming meeting with Xi doesn't go well (it won't). That's what sent the market crashing after 3pm.



This market is such a shit show and now the Fed has to raise rates no matter what because Cheeto jesus decided he had to open his fat mouth and criticize the Fed. What a fvcking moron.

I saw that the Fed is now considering a 0.2% increase instead of 0.25% (normal 25 basis points). Strange move.....
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
With Job numbers at the end of the week, Facebook and Apple reporting later this week. Could be an interesting week

I also read that there was a stock buyback lock on the last few weeks, IIRC, and that would be turned off after earnings season. I guess companies holding lots of cash could buy their stock back to prop it up.
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,486
2,363
136
I also read that there was a stock buyback lock on the last few weeks, IIRC, and that would be turned off after earnings season. I guess companies holding lots of cash could buy their stock back to prop it up.
That's what I'm counting on, but I think I'm out before the next earnings.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,613
11,255
136
S&P average rate of return with dividends reinvested is ~10%. That means plenty of years below 10%.

Judging presidential performance by the stock market is a dumb idea when the market is doing poorly the same as when its doing well. The two just aren't that related. Of course Trump deserves whatever criticism he's getting now because he tried to take credit for it doing well so screw him.
To be fair, the tank today was based on the tariff news. In general I agree that the market is only somewhat correlated to the president's actions and there is usually a decent lag.
 
Last edited: