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alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,170
270
126
I stopped looking at the stock market because wall street isn't main street. Most Americans don't have stocks. Look at the current economic climate. 27-30m Americans unemployed. It might be as high as 50m around fall. Yet, the stock market before this downturn was surging. IMO, it's fixed and only the wealthy are benefiting.
The reason is in America we have socialism for the rich. The fed has had a policy of supporting asset prices to create what they call a "wealth effect" for a while now, at least since Bernanke. So that creates a floor for asset prices when the shit hits the fan. But when mass unemployment occurs we don't have a similar mechanism to keep people employed (i.e. a jobs guarantee), and only with the cares act do we have money going to people who traditionally couldn't claim unemployment.
 
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Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
47,758
7,996
126
The reason is in America we have socialism for the rich. The fed has had a policy of supporting asset prices to create what they call a "wealth effect" for a while now, at least since Bernanke. So that creates a floor for asset prices when the shit hits the fan. But when mass unemployment occurs we don't have a similar mechanism to keep people employed (i.e. a jobs guarantee), and only with the cares act do we have money going to people who traditionally couldn't claim unemployment.
Yep. America is full-blown socialist now if you're rich and/or politically-connected. The Fed's printing press is covering all their bets. While the rest of us are on our own, and being encouraged to fight each other.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
15,898
4,017
136
Wow, that was a long time ago, but Dow was down over 800 and NASDAC almost 600 down.

Seems the cheap money sugar high is starting to lose it's affect. Tesla splits and goes way down. Once again my greed still has me holding my FB after putting in a fantasy limit sell yesterday.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
14,853
5,031
136
I am going deeper into financial and space related positions.
I am not touching Telsa. I dont understand it. But holy crap if they crack auto-5 by years end, I am getting a model-3 to carry my sleeping ass around :).
 
Jan 25, 2011
16,062
7,517
146
Wow, that was a long time ago, but Dow was down over 800 and NASDAC almost 600 down.

Seems the cheap money sugar high is starting to lose it's affect. Tesla splits and goes way down. Once again my greed still has me holding my FB after putting in a fantasy limit sell yesterday.
This whole week has F'ing sucked. Tesla and Apple both splitting on a Monday. F' em both!

I need a new line of work...
 
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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,430
8,408
136
I knew it was going to drop and I was really thinking of selling my ETF shares as I got in at the absolute bottom a couple of months ago. Even with the big drop today on the nasdaq I’m still way ahead but looking at stocks in general and they are way over valued. A lot of the stocks I’ve watched have had a pretty linear growth trend and then you see the gains of the last couple months and they’ve gone to exponential growth. If the Dow goes below 25k and/or the nasdaq goes below 3150, it will be safe to jump back in for the long haul on some more ETF’s. If the market really drops and goes to 24000/2700 respectively, I’ll be all in and buying as much as I can.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
60,997
4,537
126
I'm still sitting entirely in cash. I never bought back in at 19k. Kicking myself for sure. But I still don't believe in the underlying fundamentals. This whole run felt cooked to prop Trump going into the election.
 
Nov 29, 2006
14,503
2,221
126
I'm still sitting entirely in cash. I never bought back in at 19k. Kicking myself for sure. But I still don't believe in the underlying fundamentals. This whole run felt cooked to prop Trump going into the election.
which is kind of funny because most of his base probably doesn’t invest at all in the stock market or know much about it in general.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
104,250
18,851
136
Wow, that was a long time ago, but Dow was down over 800 and NASDAC almost 600 down.

Seems the cheap money sugar high is starting to lose it's affect. Tesla splits and goes way down. Once again my greed still has me holding my FB after putting in a fantasy limit sell yesterday.
I'm starting to tell myself that I should lump-claim my piddly ~$16k pension from a previous employer (will be worth $54k lump in 15 years, 75k in 25 years, I think. $600/month if I choose monthly at retirement) and dump it all into TSLA stock if it goes all the way down to $300 or less?

summon the @ponyo for thoughts? :D
 

UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
22,683
4,962
136
I'm still sitting entirely in cash. I never bought back in at 19k. Kicking myself for sure. But I still don't believe in the underlying fundamentals. This whole run felt cooked to prop Trump going into the election.
Your portfolio looks like mine then

 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,095
3,036
136
I'm still sitting entirely in cash. I never bought back in at 19k. Kicking myself for sure. But I still don't believe in the underlying fundamentals. This whole run felt cooked to prop Trump going into the election.
That's ok, I was buying and selling then, made some decent money there and there, then bought an F ton (for me) of TSLA at $480-500 in April. (And some AAPL at $240).

Then I freaked out, sold it at $600, and cried into my nickels watching go up and up, losing out on.... Fk... Don't even want to count it all, but many tens of thousands.

Sadly, I had almost pulled off my grand plan, but flinched at the last moment and wiffed.

Chased a bit with some limit orders, but it got so rich I couldn't believe it, and didn't want to be the sucker that bought late into the hype....but it just kept going.

Ugh, even if I just sold it until now and flipped into an index fund, it would end up a very cushy amount by the time I'm looking to retire.

Oh well, I still made money on all this, but damn it, that was one of the worst decisions I've ever made.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
28,650
2,863
126
That's ok, I was buying and selling then, made some decent money there and there, then bought an F ton (for me) of TSLA at $480-500 in April. (And some AAPL at $240).

Then I freaked out, sold it at $600, and cried into my nickels watching go up and up, losing out on.... Fk... Don't even want to count it all, but many tens of thousands.

Sadly, I had almost pulled off my grand plan, but flinched at the last moment and wiffed.

Chased a bit with some limit orders, but it got so rich I couldn't believe it, and didn't want to be the sucker that bought late into the hype....but it just kept going.

Ugh, even if I just sold it until now and flipped into an index fund, it would end up a very cushy amount by the time I'm looking to retire.

Oh well, I still made money on all this, but damn it, that was one of the worst decisions I've ever made.
Your experience there is exactly why I'm not speculating, much less day trading or chewing my nails wondering WTF I should do in the market. I have a system that makes the decisions for me, based on rules. I can still get burned, I still have to accept the fact that buying (or shorting or playing options on) X, Y or Z stock would have been much more profitable buys than what my system nets, but that's true of everybody. The investor has never lived who has enjoyed maximum gains. Every single one could have done better... hindsight is 20/20. I used to trade stocks... spent so much time trying to figure out how to make a lot of money doing it, and I wasn't even beating the general market. Then I realized, hey, just trade the general market, save time and aggravation and in all likelihood do better than I would if I was trying this and that and the other! The general market proxy would be the S&P500, which you can invest in by buying the SPY ETF. Warren Buffett says most investors should just play the S&P500, buy it and hold it.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,095
3,036
136
Your experience there is exactly why I'm not speculating, much less day trading or chewing my nails wondering WTF I should do in the market. I have a system that makes the decisions for me, based on rules. I can still get burned, I still have to know that X, Y or Z stock would have been much more profitable buys than what my system nets, but that's true of everybody. The investor has never lived who has enjoyed maximum gains. Every single one could have done better... hindsight is 20/20. I used to trade stocks spent so much time trying to figure out how to make a lot of money doing it, and I wasn't even beating the general market. Then I realized, hey, just trade the general market! That's the S&P500, which you can invest in by buying the SPY ETF.
That's where most of my money goes. SP500 and a NASDAQ index fund.

I do keep other cash on the side to "play" with. Typically safer big stocks like AAPL that I can get a few pts better on, but nothing super risky that can lose big money. Don't do options as I know I'd lose my ass with them, and I don't have time to learn about them.

My portfolio is usually higher than just the index alone. So good enough for me.

Idea was I have this reserve of cash to seize opportunities. It was there, was well positioned, then I bailed.

Made money, but just enough to make paying the taxes on it annoying.

Still got some cash ready, so watching and waiting
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
28,650
2,863
126
Made money, but just enough to make paying the taxes on it annoying.
I haven't even dealt with paying the taxes on my investments, particulary, but soon will. I got hammered in the 2008 crash and I still have capital loss carryovers from that. This year I'm pretty sure I will have gains. It would have been long term if I could have waited to Mar. 15, 2020 to sell my position but I bailed about 3 weeks before. I was glad I did because the sell-off was huge and my system would have killed me! Well, I'd have survived but I would have lost all my gains from the previous year. I'd have done fine if I just held on and did nothing (!), but my system doesn't do that. It was an outlier situation and I trusted my gut (which I'm NOT supposed to do!), but my gut was right!

We could have another tumble, but I don't think we'll have one like early in the year. Well, unless there's some huge issue around the election. That's more than a little possible given how crazy the political scene is right now. But I don't expect it.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,161
1,257
126
I gotta admit that this year is starting to feel like a dystopian Sci-Fi novel. People are dying en masse and unemployment is still near the highest it's been in decades, but tech stocks are at all-time highs and Jeep just released a $100,000 SUV. The disparity between the haves and the have-nots is getting unreal.

I think that we'll all kinda screwed when the rioters figure out that the real wealth in this country is no longer in jewelry and handbag stores and is locked up in corporate data centers. When they do, they might actually start doing real economic damage for all of us working at home right now.
 
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ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
101,224
5,081
126
I gotta admit that this year is starting to feel like a dystopian Sci-Fi novel. People are dying en masse and unemployment is still near the highest it's been in decades, but tech stocks are at all-time highs and Jeep just released a $100,000 SUV. The disparity between the haves and the have-nots is getting unreal.

I think that we'll all kinda screwed when the rioters figure out that the real wealth in this country is no longer in jewelry and handbag stores and is locked up in corporate data centers. When they do, they might actually start doing real economic damage for all of us working at home right now.
K shaped recovery. Up for people who had assets to start, down for errbody else
 

dawp

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
10,428
1,625
126
I find it hilarious that after trump bragged about the stocks going so high and the market dropped within days.
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
77,555
10,552
126
I gotta admit that this year is starting to feel like a dystopian Sci-Fi novel. People are dying en masse and unemployment is still near the highest it's been in decades, but tech stocks are at all-time highs and Jeep just released a $100,000 SUV. The disparity between the haves and the have-nots is getting unreal.

I think that we'll all kinda screwed when the rioters figure out that the real wealth in this country is no longer in jewelry and handbag stores and is locked up in corporate data centers. When they do, they might actually start doing real economic damage for all of us working at home right now.
The only way the gladiator can hit 100 grand is if you maxed out all the stupid bullshit options that even rich people woudlnt want.
Having said that, Jeep parts have been the most expensive parts for decades so it really doesnt matter what they did this year.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,095
3,036
136
I haven't even dealt with paying the taxes on my investments, particulary, but soon will. I got hammered in the 2008 crash and I still have capital loss carryovers from that. This year I'm pretty sure I will have gains. It would have been long term if I could have waited to Mar. 15, 2020 to sell my position but I bailed about 3 weeks before. I was glad I did because the sell-off was huge and my system would have killed me! Well, I'd have survived but I would have lost all my gains from the previous year. I'd have done fine if I just held on and did nothing (!), but my system doesn't do that. It was an outlier situation and I trusted my gut (which I'm NOT supposed to do!), but my gut was right!

We could have another tumble, but I don't think we'll have one like early in the year. Well, unless there's some huge issue around the election. That's more than a little possible given how crazy the political scene is right now. But I don't expect it.
I don't think we'll have a big drop, but some correction seems in order.

IDK, you would think the terrible economic situation would catch up with the market, but then again the market doesn't really reflect the economy, other than where rich people (and Fed by proxy) deposit all their money.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,161
1,257
126
The only way the gladiator can hit 100 grand is if you maxed out all the stupid bullshit options that even rich people woudlnt want.
Having said that, Jeep parts have been the most expensive parts for decades so it really doesnt matter what they did this year.
I was talking about the new Grand Wagoneer:


Which looks like a great SUV. I'd buy one for my wife if I could afford it. Of course, if I lived in the world of Robocop, I'd probably be willing to buy her 6000 SUX if she wanted one :)

FCA also has a Dodge Hellcat Durango coming out soon as well. I'm sure that will easily top 100K with options as well.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,205
1,755
126
I'm starting to tell myself that I should lump-claim my piddly ~$16k pension from a previous employer (will be worth $54k lump in 15 years, 75k in 25 years, I think. $600/month if I choose monthly at retirement) and dump it all into TSLA stock if it goes all the way down to $300 or less?

summon the @ponyo for thoughts? :D
$16k to $54k in 15 years is like 8.5% annual compounded return. If I had something that would guarantee me 8.5% every year for the next 15 years, I would put all my money in it and set my life on autopilot. I love Tesla but total domination by Tesla isn't guaranteed. If your pension is guaranteed like that, I would keep it and wouldn't touch it.

But the general rule with TSLA is if it ever drops 50-60%, you go all in with stock and leap calls. And you hold on for dear life.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
28,650
2,863
126
I don't think we'll have a big drop, but some correction seems in order.

IDK, you would think the terrible economic situation would catch up with the market, but then again the market doesn't really reflect the economy, other than where rich people (and Fed by proxy) deposit all their money.
If the economy really deteriorates, if a depression sets in, the stock market IMO is likely to reflect that and the indexes will suffer mightily. But I don't expect that to happen. However, it would not amaze me one bit if it does.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
104,250
18,851
136
$16k to $54k in 15 years is like 8.5% annual compounded return. If I had something that would guarantee me 8.5% every year for the next 15 years, I would put all my money in it and set my life on autopilot. I love Tesla but total domination by Tesla isn't guaranteed. If your pension is guaranteed like that, I would keep it and wouldn't touch it.

But the general rule with TSLA is if it ever drops 50-60%, you go all in with stock and leap calls. And you hold on for dear life.
yeah, the guaranteed return like that is why I've ignored it for so long. I only recently started thinking about it in recent months when the market first took a bath in March/April, thinking that cashing that out and then buying in after a big drop would mean a potential 20% after a year or maybe 3 years. Decent boost. ...but then over 15 years, that sort of thing could happen several times, mixed in with some 2018 -9% or whatever that was (2019?), and still end up being where I would have been anyway.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
15,898
4,017
136
I'm still sitting entirely in cash. I never bought back in at 19k. Kicking myself for sure. But I still don't believe in the underlying fundamentals. This whole run felt cooked to prop Trump going into the election.
That's 1/2 of my position, since Trump started shit with China, quite a while ago.
 

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