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News Dow bouncing around -1000

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UNCjigga

Lifer
Dec 12, 2000
22,799
5,140
136
Who knows when that will be. I don't think normal will return anytime soon.
I think the real bounce back will only come when NYC and Silicon Valley start getting back to normal. That’ll give a boost of confidence to all the traders and fund managers and PE firms who call NYC/Bay Area home. So watch for when NYC/SF bars and restaurants are back online and people return to work in those cities.

Sustained growth might not be possible though—I’d expect a high degree of volatility over the next 12-18 months until we figure out if we can actually beat Covid and prevent annual recurrence.
 
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Staples

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2001
4,945
109
106
The burning question I have is what defines a ressession?

In 2008 when the stock market dropped like 50% and took a year or two to get back, it was called a ressession and it was because the stock market was in the gutter.

In 2+ months when things open up again (and by things I mean only 50% of them because the losses forced them into bankruptcy), will we call this a ressession if the stock market is back at new highs?
 

Staples

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2001
4,945
109
106
Eh ... whats this?

What does this even mean. Lots of technical terms. I know what P&E, market cap, volume mean but apparently I am a n0ob.

Edit. I've read tons of the comments and realized that I am not the only one who wonders why the stock market is far from reality. In the past, the stock market used to be based somewhat on reality but during this last 10 year run, I've decided that it is becoming less and less the case. We've had news of Brexit that was supposedly so so bad, Greece went bankrupt. And both those have had almost zero impact on the markets.

I thought bitcoin market was bonkers but this one is just as bad.
 
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GodisanAtheist

Platinum Member
Nov 16, 2006
2,792
1,291
136
What does this even mean. Lots of technical terms. I know what P&E, market cap, volume mean but apparently I am a n0ob.

Edit. I've read tons of the comments and realized that I am not the only one who wonders why the stock market is far from reality. In the past, the stock market used to be based somewhat on reality but during this last 10 year run, I've decided that it is becoming less and less the case. We've had news of Brexit that was supposedly so so bad, Greece went bankrupt. And both those have had almost zero impact on the markets.

I thought bitcoin market was bonkers but this one is just as bad.
- Indeed. I listen to Marketplace on NPR and it sounds like Kai is a little perplexed with markets rising as massive unemployment numbers are released the same day.

I am definitely in noob territory when it comes to markets but its definitely a little perplexing to see markets rise on progressively worse and worse news.

Maybe things are just getting pumped up before official quarterly numbers are released.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
15,133
5,259
136
What does this even mean. Lots of technical terms. I know what P&E, market cap, volume mean but apparently I am a n0ob.

Edit. I've read tons of the comments and realized that I am not the only one who wonders why the stock market is far from reality. In the past, the stock market used to be based somewhat on reality but during this last 10 year run, I've decided that it is becoming less and less the case. We've had news of Brexit that was supposedly so so bad, Greece went bankrupt. And both those have had almost zero impact on the markets.

I thought bitcoin market was bonkers but this one is just as bad.
Well the other forum I got this from had this angle on it : Reason for the latest rally is that the US gov is buying up... As I dont understand these mechanisms I created a control here... but it seems its as much gibberish to you as it is to me.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,175
3,178
136
- Indeed. I listen to Marketplace on NPR and it sounds like Kai is a little perplexed with markets rising as massive unemployment numbers are released the same day.

I am definitely in noob territory when it comes to markets but its definitely a little perplexing to see markets rise on progressively worse and worse news.

Maybe things are just getting pumped up before official quarterly numbers are released.
I'm voting for decreasing uncertainly, it's a natural diaster and not a financial disaster (eg 2008), and assurance Congress/Fed will pump trillions into the econ to cover.

Lastly, other parts of world that didn't f up the response have returned to some state of normalcy, so we have some insight of our pathway.

Without further evidence, market is betting this is short term disaster that blows over soon enough and we go back to a ~strong econ again (esp vs how the current market is priced.)

By selling/holding cash, you are betting on future trouble and further death and damage, and waiting it out for bigger discounts before buying back in.
 
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Mar 11, 2004
20,847
3,011
126
What does this even mean. Lots of technical terms. I know what P&E, market cap, volume mean but apparently I am a n0ob.

Edit. I've read tons of the comments and realized that I am not the only one who wonders why the stock market is far from reality. In the past, the stock market used to be based somewhat on reality but during this last 10 year run, I've decided that it is becoming less and less the case. We've had news of Brexit that was supposedly so so bad, Greece went bankrupt. And both those have had almost zero impact on the markets.

I thought bitcoin market was bonkers but this one is just as bad.
Straight up, I think its wishful thinking. Markets are going "if we just believe things are good and act like they are, they will be" which, strangely is kinda true because of how the stock market is inherently illogical to a certain degree. The problem is, that can only last so long.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting doom and gloom. Hell, 2008 sucked, but compare it to how shit used to be, and in general there's more stability in modern society, that keeps things from going bad old school ways (i.e. hyperinflation, Great Depression, etc). So I don't think even with pretty bad news things will be that way. Some of that is luck (i.e. COVID-19 is a bastard, but it pales to plenty of other diseases, and so we're a bit lucky that it wasn't one of those that, although I don't know I'd say its luck, as we've done a lot of stuff to try and prevent such, vaccines, modern health care, etc, hell even simply that fact that its possible for much of the world to access clean water and wash their hands).

But we were due for economic issues. We've been deluding ourselves about post 2008 growth, and hiding issues other places (car loans for instance where car companies didn't want to slow production because then it'd be read as weakness which could tank their stock, so instead they started offering longer term loans). And plenty of other issues that have been deliberately unaddressed (health care...) for political reasons.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,624
8,749
136
It’s hard to see the economy getting worse after covid passes considering how much money congress is willing to pump into the system.

Then again, we are dealing with an administration headed by a man who owned casinos that went bankrupt under his watch. So if there was one person who could fuck up the recovery, well...it would be trump.
 
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dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
26,205
6,252
136
It’s hard to see the economy getting worse after covid passes considering how much money congress is willing to pump into the system.

Then again, we are dealing with an administration headed by a man who owned casinos that went bankrupt under his watch. So if there was one person who could fuck up the recovery, well...it would be trump.
The first step to recovery is to cut his taxes.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
35,936
9,600
136
Another 6.6M unemployed.

The Fed has gone from breaking the glass to tearing down the wall behind it with a sledgehammer. Will buy the PPP loans, a $600B new mid size firm loan package, and $500B in local government lending.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,249
683
126
How many trillions of dollars have been created in the last month?
The Fed is up to what $6-7trillion?

The you have the stimulus/relief packages at another $2.75Trillion. This is just the US.

Japan passed a $1trillion stimulus package a couple days ago. Other countries have been pumping money into their economies as well.

Globally we are probably over $12trillion pumped into the global markets/economies in the past month. A lot of this is going to end up making the super wealthy even wealthier.

Globally the income gap/income inequality is going to grow so much faster with all of this.
 

Staples

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2001
4,945
109
106
Anyone want to take a guess at how much the Trump Administration will add to the national debt in the eight years he will be in office.

America is so so dumb. He will be re elected. And at worst, he will have congress remove presidential term limits so he can grace us for another decade or two.

Yes, I think the latter is a possibility.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,249
683
126
Anyone want to take a guess at how much the Trump Administration will add to the national debt in the eight years he will be in office.

America is so so dumb. He will be re elected. And at worst, he will have congress remove presidential term limits so he can grace us for another decade or two.

Yes, I think the latter is a possibility.
That would require a constitutional amendment which would have to pass 38 state legislatures. Fortunately the GOP only controls 29 and they are likely to lose a few state houses this year.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
26,205
6,252
136
...

Globally we are probably over $12trillion pumped into the global markets/economies in the past month. A lot of this is going to end up making the super wealthy even wealthier.

...
I am guessing roughly $13T of it will go directly to the wealthy. Maybe $15T of that $12T estimate.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
35,936
9,600
136

The only person on this list who has any business at all being on it is Mnuchin. The sucking sound emanating from Meadows already is obscene.

Expect another horribly mismanaged effort that will just prolong the pain and suffering like the super fucked up virus response is. All these people should be run out of town on a rail.
 

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