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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,185
3,201
136
if we have over a million dead the floor is like 5000
Really depends on our incompetence in this. It really does.

China has a population of 1.4B, while we have a pop of 0.33 B.

They had only 80k cases and 3300 deaths.
We're at 90k and 1500.

There is no reason for a million deaths other than compete incompetence and stupidity.

Will we pass China? Surely, but if we get our shit together this is not apocalyptic.

Won't claim to have a crystal ball, but this does not have to be so bad.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,402
3,941
126
Really depends on our incompetence in this. It really does.

China has a population of 1.4B, while we have a pop of 0.33 B.

They had only 80k cases and 3300 deaths.
We're at 90k and 1500.

There is no reason for a million deaths other than compete incompetence and stupidity.

Will we pass China? Surely, but if we get our shit together this is not apocalyptic.

Won't claim to have a crystal ball, but this does not have to be so bad.
so you are betting against complete incompetance and stupidity?






















 

[DHT]Osiris

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2015
8,182
4,074
146
Really depends on our incompetence in this. It really does.

China has a population of 1.4B, while we have a pop of 0.33 B.

They had only 80k cases and 3300 deaths.
We're at 90k and 1500.

There is no reason for a million deaths other than compete incompetence and stupidity.

Will we pass China? Surely, but if we get our shit together this is not apocalyptic.

Won't claim to have a crystal ball, but this does not have to be so bad.
Or, you know, China was lying about their numbers.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,565
1,047
126
Also, extensive circumstantial evidence abounds that China saw far, far, FAR more deaths than they reported.

Their cell phone service is basically a free option, because it is a perfect tool for their surveillance state. But somehow 14m or so of their accounts vanished during the first lockdown period. Now a lot of that could just be political oppression. Many Chinese were rightly pissed at how things were handled, especially with the doctor who spoke out and went 'viral', jeez we need a better name for that these days. So, seeing non-approved CCP critical messages almost certainly got a number of accounts deleted.

But, think about this : would the CCP, who is completely addicted to building AI models and following people everywhere simply wish to deactivate users they found disloyal and potentially security risks who might spy for foreign powers? They would lose track of these people. Or would they only do so after they had been neutralized, either by outright liquidation, or by encampment.

My theory is that it's a mix. They militarily invaded Wuhan basically. They probably confiscated every phone they could get ahold of for those that were sick, and further arrested/disappeared many of their critics. That citizen journalist guy who took a video in the morgue hasn't been seen since the day he uploaded the video. The Dr who was having the breakdown about the dead stacked on the floor, vanished. The lady who was talking about how they were killing them, gone. And so on.

Best case there are a lot of people in prison.

Worst case, and probably most realistic case, there are an absolute mountain of dead people, mostly from the virus but also from execution, that will never be heard from again. Info will be incredibly difficult to get on this unless a brave soul leaks something of note.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,618
2,063
126
Why do you think its gonna get better from now on? The US is just now beginning to experience the expo in exponential, I dont see anything opening up anytime soon ... Unless you wanna do an Italy with upwards of 10% mortality (cause hospitals has collapsed .. will collapse.).... in ~10 days you could have as many as 1 million sick. with collapsed hospitals thats going to edge towards 100.000 dead. Onset mass hysteria. People fleeing NY. Cant have that. Boots on the ground.
Its gonna get fucked.
Because IMO, the markets were pricing in very high chance that rest of Europe along with the US were going to be the next Italy. But so far, it's looking like that view was wrong and overly negative. The market is forward looking. I'm bullish for long term equity. But I do trade both long/short with stocks and options, and I do change/adjust my opinion all the time.

I'm just a small fish. My opinions don't really matter. What matter is what the big boys think. The big boys do not want Mad Max world. They have more to lose than you or me.
 
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JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,402
3,941
126
Also, extensive circumstantial evidence abounds that China saw far, far, FAR more deaths than they reported.

Their cell phone service is basically a free option, because it is a perfect tool for their surveillance state. But somehow 14m or so of their accounts vanished during the first lockdown period. Now a lot of that could just be political oppression. Many Chinese were rightly pissed at how things were handled, especially with the doctor who spoke out and went 'viral', jeez we need a better name for that these days. So, seeing non-approved CCP critical messages almost certainly got a number of accounts deleted.

But, think about this : would the CCP, who is completely addicted to building AI models and following people everywhere simply wish to deactivate users they found disloyal and potentially security risks who might spy for foreign powers? They would lose track of these people. Or would they only do so after they had been neutralized, either by outright liquidation, or by encampment.

My theory is that it's a mix. They militarily invaded Wuhan basically. They probably confiscated every phone they could get ahold of for those that were sick, and further arrested/disappeared many of their critics. That citizen journalist guy who took a video in the morgue hasn't been seen since the day he uploaded the video. The Dr who was having the breakdown about the dead stacked on the floor, vanished. The lady who was talking about how they were killing them, gone. And so on.

Best case there are a lot of people in prison.

Worst case, and probably most realistic case, there are an absolute mountain of dead people, mostly from the virus but also from execution, that will never be heard from again. Info will be incredibly difficult to get on this unless a brave soul leaks something of note.
links to the 14 million missing accounts?
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,565
1,047
126
Ponyo, if you're still interested in shorts, I think you can still make quite a lot of money if the entire system doesn't collapse. I'd basically guarantee at least a temporary freeze on financial markets before this is over, and we're not even remotely as bad off as we will be in 2-4 weeks.

The problem with those big boys, who indeed don't want a Mad Max world, is that they all want someone ELSE to fix or pay for things to be better. They think their usual M.O. : buy off politicians with PAC/SuperPAC and continual regulatory capture, is enough for continual success, even in bad times. And you know what? Usually it is. The biggest interests get bailouts and payoffs, already seen. Unfortunately for them, this problem is bigger than any financial number in any account or list anywhere. First, employment and the consumer economy as we know it is gone, and not in a '5%' less kind of way, which would already be devastating to a system addicted to leverage and cheap debt to keep zombie Corporations afloat. No, it's gone in a way that will see 40% unemployment as the floor, and probably closer to 50-55%, GDP probably cut by at least a third, tax revenue nullified in its entirety (measured against bailout outlays), and deaths high into the ten digit range.

None of these big boys or institutions are designed or willing to take the 'hard' choice. The infected TODAY mostly don't know yet that they're sick, or just have some slight symptoms worrying them a bit. We haven't done the difficult but necessary task of across the board lockdown yet, and afraid of spooking the markets, we've even floated bad advice to not wear masks (which indeed can fail to protect the wearer itself, but which hugely reduces OUTBOUND droplet transmissions). Mixed messages and major famous people falling ill to this have made these people uneasy and rushed to pack into supermarkets and convenience stores. Hospitals are having workers interact with patients with no PPE, then sending them home to spread the disease to their families, roommates, bus passengers, subway passengers, etc. Fire, EMS and Police departments across the country are responding to calls to people who are now showing to widely infect these groups.

Italy is just another warning we didn't take. They finally locked down, but saw rising death rates for several weeks afterwards, and only now just stabilizing a continually terrible death rate. We haven't gotten close to their level of action and response yet, and our curve is only ACCELERATING.

We're literally days away at the most, 8-10 days, from seeing many hundreds of dead per day, then many thousands per day, then into the tens of thousands per day. Bodies stacked like cordwood on the streets and alleys because there's no time to deal with them, hospitals locked down because they are already at 500% capacity and half the staff are dying or dead. This is coming. And the big boys and their markets aren't doing anything about it, nor can they at this point. They needed to demand better preparedness years ago, and decisive action months ago. But the entire structure failed, and in retrospect it's easy to see why. We simply became too corrupt, we stripped the political system of any incentive to benefit humanity, and replaced it with a comprehensive gaggle of sychophants and puppets who only danced to strings for corporate profits.
 
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Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,565
1,047
126
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JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,402
3,941
126
It appears it may have been worse than my initial information showed.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/terry-glavin-china-is-disappearing-coronavirus-truth-seekers


absolutely stellar sources. Go away. We dont need fake news stories right now. Stop spreading bullshit.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,402
3,941
126
right now we have a holiday on fake news sites. People should be getting the ban hammer for spreading false or misleading information. @Perknose
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,565
1,047
126
absolutely stellar sources. Go away. We dont need fake news stories right now. Stop spreading bullshit.
Look man, I don't like the right wing news types any more than you probably do, but this news is out there, those are just the ones Google pushes as first search results. The actual cell phone subscriber lists were clumsily released already direct from the source. You can find reports from non-Breitbart types if you want.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,565
1,047
126
that source has mixed factual reporting.

Let it get to nytimes wapo npr or reuters before spreading it.
Fair enough. There was a thread I found that actually linked to the Chinese company reports themselves, but of course the reasoning behind the mass subtraction of accounts is unknowable at present, and almost certainly due to a mixture of reasons.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
16,456
4,376
136
Trump currently signing the biggested, bested, bill that ever existed in the universe. Conavirus Response is law.
 
Mar 11, 2004
20,863
3,032
126
Look man, I don't like the right wing news types any more than you probably do, but this news is out there, those are just the ones Google pushes as first search results. The actual cell phone subscriber lists were clumsily released already direct from the source. You can find reports from non-Breitbart types if you want.
Then link ones. If you had any that were more credible than fucking Breitbart you should have used them. So either you don't, or you're basically just joining in with people who are every bit as intent on setting up the fascist state that you think you're exposing.

You clearly know that Breitbart is a complete shit source, so why you used it when allegedly this info is out there is baffling.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,185
3,201
136
so you are betting against complete incompetance and stupidity?






















I know, scary to say with Trump in charge, but I'm hoping the govs can pull it together.

Every outcome worse than China/SK/Singapore is 100% on Trump.
 
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uallas5

Senior member
Jun 3, 2005
949
596
136
Trump currently signing the biggested, bested, bill that ever existed in the universe. Conavirus Response is law.
It's amazing isn't it, he has to be the best, the biggest, etc. He's signing into law the biggest BAILOUT in US history, and he's all like FUCK YEAH IT"S THE BIGGEST BABY!!! Does he even f'n realize that the biggest drop in the economy is about to happen since the Great Depression while he's in charge? It's a f'n BAILOUT!!! Great Depression pfffff! I'll show you a Depression bitches. It'll be the deepest depression in Recorded Time!!



Then again he actually thought the Fed having to cut rates was a good thing so I think I just answered my own question.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,662
13,746
136
What about SK then?
Pop 51M, 9k cases, 140 deaths.

Again, no reason this has to be so bad other than utter incompetence at federal level.
It reveals the folly of Trump/GOP/Capitalist/Libertopian/Trickle down/Muh Freedumb ideology in a multiplicity of ways. We be fucked, maybe worse than we imagined possible. I'm sure it's better if a person has enough wealth to engage in extreme social distancing for an indefinite period. Meanwhile, the Plebes need to go back to work before they come up with creative soshulist solutions.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
15,191
5,279
136
Why do you think its gonna get better from now on? The US is just now beginning to experience the expo in exponential, I dont see anything opening up anytime soon ... Unless you wanna do an Italy with upwards of 10% mortality (cause hospitals has collapsed .. will collapse.).... in ~10 days you could have as many as 1 million sick. with collapsed hospitals thats going to edge towards 100.000 dead. Onset mass hysteria. People fleeing NY. Cant have that. Boots on the ground.
Its gonna get fucked.
I am just gonna quote myself here and post this


Trajectories. Cause and effect.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,185
3,201
136
Looks like market will do a single Trump today.

After the run-up last week, market figured out that 250k dead Americans "best case scenario" is actually pretty fucking terrifying, and we've headed back down.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,403
1,379
126
Looks like market will do a single Trump today.

After the run-up last week, market figured out that 250k dead Americans "best case scenario" is actually pretty fucking terrifying, and we've headed back down.
True, but most of those people are old and many of them have pre-existing medical conditions.

If you're going to go pure "Cold blooded heartless Capitalist" on this, you're probably going to look into investing in home building and automotive stocks for long term gains, since that's what the kids of these people are likely going to blow their inheritance on. You'll probably want to short nursing homes, since they're going to get even more of a "Death Trap" reputation than what they had before. Also, I doubt that anybody is going to be taking a cruise again until we have a working vaccine for this disease.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
61,024
4,588
126
Looks like market will do a single Trump today.

After the run-up last week, market figured out that 250k dead Americans "best case scenario" is actually pretty fucking terrifying, and we've headed back down.
A bunch dead. Many students not going back to classes until next fall. State imposed shelter in place laws until May or June. And then we are staring down the barrel of this again in 6 months come October.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
61,211
14,072
136
True, but most of those people are old and many of them have pre-existing medical conditions.

If you're going to go pure "Cold blooded heartless Capitalist" on this, you're probably going to look into investing in home building and automotive stocks for long term gains, since that's what the kids of these people are likely going to blow their inheritance on. You'll probably want to short nursing homes, since they're going to get even more of a "Death Trap" reputation than what they had before. Also, I doubt that anybody is going to be taking a cruise again until we have a working vaccine for this disease.
It depends on how fast folks die. The current system is to have the medical industrial complex vacuum up one's life savings in the last six months of life so don't count on any inheritances unless the medical system is so overwhelmed it can't extract even one more dollar.
 
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