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News Dow bouncing around -1000

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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
13,591
4,066
136
Damn, days like this have me wondering if I missed the moment ... then I look at the stats .. you are logging 9-10k new cases each day now, its gonna get hella worse.
Cuomo says they got hands on 7K ventilators, gonna need at the very least 30k ventliators more in 14 days. I think NY has 5K now with most of them already in use.
That means that Cuomo and gang is looking at a piece of math that projects this this thing is going to explode in 14 days.


"Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Tuesday revised the most dire projections for the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in New York. Rather than the 110,000 beds previously thought to be needed when the outbreak peaks, he said the state will require 140,000. “The apex is higher than we thought, and the apex is sooner than we thought,” he said in a press conference at the Javits Center. "

- I can only imagine that the markets are gonna tank again. Hard.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,319
12,307
136
I do love the doublespeak. Assets are def hard to price when nobody wants to buy them except the FRB-


Massive understatement-

“Bond ETFs are promising perfect liquidity in markets that are over-the-counter and have ad hoc, not instantaneous, liquidity,“ said Sonal Desai, chief investment officer of the fixed-income group at Franklin Templeton Investments. “They now face a fairly critical test.”
 

Staples

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2001
4,898
84
91
Well lets put this upward bounce in line with the growth of Trump's approval. Both insane.

But I think we will soon get back to a downward curve.
 

Staples

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2001
4,898
84
91
Jobless claims. Up 4%. I don't know what to make of this anymore.

No bad news in the last 10 years seemed to make a dent which made me think things were irrational but I thought maybe, just maybe this bigger event would be event that was different.

Stay tuned.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,290
5,639
136
The rise in unemployment claims does not bode well, particularly when it's at this number:


Initial jobless claims soared to a seasonally adjusted 3.28 million in the week ended March 21, according to the Department of Labor.
That is the highest number of initial jobless claims in history, since the Department of Labor started tracking the data in 1967. The previous high was 695,000 claims filed in the week ending October 2, 1982.
If I'm reading that correctly, we just had 5x more new unemployment claims than the worst week in US history?

The BLS report coming out soon is going to show a bloodbath.
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
5,859
1,143
126
The rise in unemployment claims does not bode well, particularly when it's at this number:




If I'm reading that correctly, we just had 5x more new unemployment claims than the worst week in US history?

The BLS report coming out soon is going to show a bloodbath.
We only had 230 million people in 82, so technically "only" 4x more new unemployment claims when taking population growth into account, but still very very ugly.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,290
5,639
136
We only had 230 million people in 82, so technically "only" 4x more new unemployment claims when taking population growth into account, but still very very ugly.
Yeah I thought about that, but like you said, it's still a shocking number.

I think the monthly jobs report is going to show that the economy shed 400K+ jobs in March, with unemployment going up 2-3%.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,562
1,030
126
How did you manage that when the market is only down like 8% or so? Did you YOLO everything in weekly option or something?

I nibbled some today. If we open down big or go down big tomorrow, I'm going to buy in big for the upcoming bounce. Not really worried at all at this point. Actually I'm bullish AF.
Man, I really really hope you didn't do this buying on this day like you said. We've fallen so so so far since.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
8,753
2,589
136
Jobless claims. Up 4%. I don't know what to make of this anymore.

No bad news in the last 10 years seemed to make a dent which made me think things were irrational but I thought maybe, just maybe this bigger event would be event that was different.

Stay tuned.
I think we're still on the boost from the stimulus and other support measures.

Ultimately stocks are future looking, so after the massive sell off, what's the news driving the market?

Is gloom and doom already priced in, and those that were fearful have already sold out? Now part way through this, we kinda know the path, and know the recovery measures.
If so, you are buying cheap and holding for better days.

To push the market down, it will take worse than expected news that challenges the assumptions we have of recovery building in. Massive unempl #s aren't surprising and are blunted by the government measures.

That's why I'll say again, folks should be careful totally sitting out when things are so cheap just waiting for even worse days to come. The market isn't always rational, and it may recover before you'd expect.

It may get worse, or we might be part way in on that 10-12 week infection/recovery cycle we are seeing elsewhere and the future is ugly short term, but predictable, thus being priced in.
 

Sonikku

Lifer
Jun 23, 2005
15,397
3,572
136
There's going to be a lot more "worse than expected" news coming down when the virus conservatives bought into being as a hoax or at most "overblown" ends up overflowing the nation's hospitals with a massive body count to match.
 

Artorias

Golden Member
Feb 8, 2014
1,156
277
136
The world economy is going to tank we better take China down with it. Fuck them. Once this is over the world needs to boycott them, and embargo them.

Lets take back control, build on self sustainability and work with like minded countries. Most of all elect leaders who take health care seriously.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
27,593
7,361
136
The world economy is going to tank we better take China down with it. Fuck them. Once this is over the world needs to boycott them, and embargo them.

Lets take back control, build on self sustainability and work with like minded countries. Most of all elect leaders who take health care seriously.

How xenophobic of you. Do you know or understand where your hate for China comes from?
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
18,586
9,080
136
The world economy is going to tank we better take China down with it. Fuck them. Once this is over the world needs to boycott them, and embargo them.

Lets take back control, build on self sustainability and work with like minded countries. Most of all elect leaders who take health care seriously.
Yeah fuck them! They need to get their own planet. Casual xenophobia/racism FTL.
 

Artorias

Golden Member
Feb 8, 2014
1,156
277
136
Yeah fuck them! They need to get their own planet. Casual xenophobia/racism FTL.
How xenophobic of you. Do you know or understand where your hate for China comes from?
I have nothing against the Chinese people.

However, eff the CCP with a rusty shovel. Seriously.
I should have clarified. My hate is towards the CCP. They constantly shit on their citizens and violate every human right, not saying Americans or any other country doesn't do bad shit, but for fuck sake they jailed doctors speaking up about the virus.

The world needs to wake up and apply the consequences to countries with governments like the CCP.
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
8,753
2,589
136
There's going to be a lot more "worse than expected" news coming down when the virus conservatives bought into being as a hoax or at most "overblown" ends up overflowing the nation's hospitals with a massive body count to match.
I think so. We're not handling this crisis well.

We've exceeded China's numbers, but they had no advanced warning and have more than a billion people.

Personally, I sold some positions again this week with the run up and replenished my cash reserves waiting on some down days.
However, I'm not touching my main holdings/index funds. Those will stay put and ride it out. I'm also continuing to contribute on the normal schedule with those.

I just keep a portion of my portfolio in cash for opportunistic buying and selling. That's all I'm playing with.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
17,634
1,520
126
Man, I really really hope you didn't do this buying on this day like you said. We've fallen so so so far since.
Oh, don't worry about me. I'm doing great. I've been taking advantage of this record volatility and been selling puts in names I wanted to own. The put premium last week was insane so I took advantage and sold a bunch. So unless we completely collapse, I'm going to win either way. Either I get to keep all the put premium I sold or I get to buy stock in a company I wanted to own at very attractive price. It's win-win in my book. I may be completely wrong but I think we saw the bottom Wednesday/Thursday last week for lot of the stocks. At least that's how I'm playing it.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
13,591
4,066
136
Oh, don't worry about me. I'm doing great. I've been taking advantage of this record volatility and been selling puts in names I wanted to own. The put premium last week was insane so I took advantage and sold a bunch. So unless we completely collapse, I'm going to win either way. Either I get to keep all the put premium I sold or I get to buy stock in a company I wanted to own at very attractive price. It's win-win in my book. I may be completely wrong but I think we saw the bottom Wednesday/Thursday last week for lot of the stocks. At least that's how I'm playing it.
Why do you think its gonna get better from now on? The US is just now beginning to experience the expo in exponential, I dont see anything opening up anytime soon ... Unless you wanna do an Italy with upwards of 10% mortality (cause hospitals has collapsed .. will collapse.).... in ~10 days you could have as many as 1 million sick. with collapsed hospitals thats going to edge towards 100.000 dead. Onset mass hysteria. People fleeing NY. Cant have that. Boots on the ground.
Its gonna get fucked.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
8,753
2,589
136
Oh, don't worry about me. I'm doing great. I've been taking advantage of this record volatility and been selling puts in names I wanted to own. The put premium last week was insane so I took advantage and sold a bunch. So unless we completely collapse, I'm going to win either way. Either I get to keep all the put premium I sold or I get to buy stock in a company I wanted to own at very attractive price. It's win-win in my book. I may be completely wrong but I think we saw the bottom Wednesday/Thursday last week for lot of the stocks. At least that's how I'm playing it.
This is inline with my thinking as I described earlier. I think the market low of ~18k probably represents the floor on this.

We may retest with the very bad news/panic/volatility, but I don't think we'll have a further collapse unless some other financial crisis or some other secondary order event triggers it.
Who knows what can happen, but we do have a roadmap from Asia for this.

Cuomo is saying NYC is 3 weeks away from apex. Let's assume other states 2-3wks behind that. It's scary, but that means there is an end point in May.

I wish I knew how to do the advanced trading you do, but I don't, so I'm just taking the safe bets as best as I know how and feel comfortable with.
Best of luck to you.
 
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JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,415
3,940
126
This is inline with my thinking as I described earlier. I think the market low of ~18k probably represents the floor on this.

We may retest with the very bad news/panic/volatility, but I don't think we'll have a further collapse unless some other financial crisis or some other secondary order event triggers it.
Who knows what can happen, but we do have a roadmap from Asia for this.

Cuomo is saying NYC is 3 weeks away from apex. Let's assume other states 2-3wks behind that. It's scary, but that means there is an end point in May.

I wish I knew how to do the advanced trading you do, but I don't, so I'm just taking the safe bets as best as I know how and feel comfortable with.
Best of luck to you.
if we have over a million dead the floor is like 5000
 
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fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
5,859
1,143
126
Cuomo is saying NYC is 3 weeks away from apex. Let's assume other states 2-3wks behind that. It's scary, but that means there is an end point in May.
Reaching apex is just the beginning. Take a look at Italy's numbers, we thought they had their apex on March 21st at 793 deaths. Every subsequent day they had lower death count so I really hoped the worst was over for Italy. That is until today, they just reported 919 deaths. I'm afraid that once you reach the apex, you will stay there for at least a week or two before number of deaths/new infections starts to decline assuming we're still social distancing and shut down except for the most essential services. If we reopen country too soon, we'll be right back where we started.
 
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