Dow 9500 ... Where we go from here...

[StageLeft]

If anyone has any market strategies that work, I'd like a PM.

Good luck

It went down -500 and is now closer to -300. it is screwed, but now that we KNOW the recessino is coming full on and England just posted a .5% contraction, the dire economy is here now, it's not just a thing of the future. Mass layoffs are on their way in the US. I cannot predict where unemployment will get, but it's going to be shooting up.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
90% from peak would actually be 1400.

Hmm, time to whip out my old charts. See the bottom right. Right now, based upon the housing market (a significant portion of our economy) the S&P will drop 85% to an S&P value of just above 200. For the DOW, an 85% drop means DOW 2100.

I don't think it'll actually go that low. But if it followed historical trends it would.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dullard

Originally posted by: Skoorb
90% from peak would actually be 1400.

Hmm, time to whip out my old charts. See the bottom right. Right now, based upon the housing market (a significant portion of our economy) the S&P will drop 85% to an S&P value of just above 200. For the DOW, an 85% drop means DOW 2100.

I don't think it'll actually go that low. But if it followed historical trends it would.

Put those f**king charts away, I don't want to hear it

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Thump553
If anyone has any market strategies that work, I'd like a PM.

Short real estate.

Text

 

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Thump553
If anyone has any market strategies that work, I'd like a PM.

Short real estate.

Text

I suspect that fund is commercial real estate, which is a completely different beast than residential real estate-no subprime bubble there, just recession woes.

Even if there was a way to short residential real estate I'd stay away-the government is certain to change the rules/bailout/etc. in that field after the election, no matter who wins.

 

[Budarow]

Originally posted by: Thump553

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Thump553
If anyone has any market strategies that work, I'd like a PM.

Short real estate.

Text

I suspect that fund is commercial real estate, which is a completely different beast than residential real estate-no subprime bubble there, just recession woes.

Even if there was a way to short residential real estate I'd stay away-the government is certain to change the rules/bailout/etc. in that field after the election, no matter who wins.

I really like SRS. Started buying and selling QID about 3 weeks ago and have switched to SRS and EEV. I feel VERY confident in making money over the next 1 year shorting the U.S. stock market (even buy and hold). But I think the biggest gains will still be in shorting the emerging stock markets and commercial real estate in the U.S.

Just my opinion and YMMV.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Thump553

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Thump553
If anyone has any market strategies that work, I'd like a PM.

Short real estate.

Text

I suspect that fund is commercial real estate, which is a completely different beast than residential real estate-no subprime bubble there, just recession woes.

Even if there was a way to short residential real estate I'd stay away-the government is certain to change the rules/bailout/etc. in that field after the election, no matter who wins.

It has commercial and residential.

Objective

UltraShort Real Estate ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate IndexSM.

Text

Index Summary

The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index measures the performance of the real estate industry of the U.S. equity market. Component companies include those that invest directly or indirectly through development, management or ownership of shopping malls, apartment buildings and housing developments; and real estate investment trusts ("REITs") that invest in apartments, office and retail properties. REITs are passive investment vehicles that invest primarily in income-producing real estate or real estate related loans or interests. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Text

 

[Thump553]

Well we managed to set a record today-the volatility index (aka fear index) hit 89. Unbelievable figure-looks like this crazy volatility is going to be with us for a while.

 

[ranmaniac]

Looks like DOW 8500 is in play again.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: ranmaniac
Looks like DOW 8500 is in play again.

Worst 3 day sell off since 1900, of course Rush blamed Obama and the Democrats.

Incredible since they have zero power yet.

I can't wait to get blow hard Rush, Hannity, Savage, Ingram, all of them off the air.

Hannity even said he is scared today of losing his job.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: ranmaniac
Looks like DOW 8500 is in play again.

Worst 3 day sell off since 1900, of course Rush blamed Obama and the Democrats.

Incredible since they have zero power yet.

I can't wait to get blow hard Rush, Hannity, Savage, Ingram, all of them off the air.

Hannity even said he is scared today of losing his job.

I guess the dismal outlook for Q4, retail for October at lowest level in 40 years, cratering auto sales, loss of 200k+ jobs last month, manufacturing output approaching a 3% annual decline, worldwide recession, etc., had nothing to do with the declining market.....

 

[fleshconsumed]

Well, DOW just dipped below 8K...

 

[ultra laser]

What would the DOW have to drop to for America to be considered as experiencing a major depression?

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: ultra laser
What would the DOW have to drop to for America to be considered as experiencing a major depression?

I predicted it could go as low as 5000, and that is pretty bad depression territory.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: ultra laser
What would the DOW have to drop to for America to be considered as experiencing a major depression?

In theory it could hit 1000 and there could be no depression; by this I mean it's not like the economy is 40% worse than it was a year ago, but in reality, yeah, this is pretty fvcking awful.

I predicted it could go as low as 5000, and that is pretty bad depression territory.

It's as good a guess as any. The problem is the news continues to be bad, so why would the market go up? I am still putting my 401k 100% into stocks knowing that if I can hold on (meaning I don't have to tap during some crisis), then I'll be there for the upswing, whenever that occurs.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
It's as good a guess as any. The problem is the news continues to be bad, so why would the market go up? I am still putting my 401k 100% into stocks knowing that if I can hold on (meaning I don't have to tap during some crisis), then I'll be there for the upswing, whenever that occurs.

Bad idea. All those 401(k)s out there are sitting ducks for confiscation as the unfunded retirement entitlement situation worsens. The government is willing to rape the taxpayer for a situation itself, the banks and Wall Street created, don't think for a second it won't try to rape again, this time raiding people's retirement accounts directly.

Personally, I'm going to take the tax hit and go offshore, perhaps in several different accounts in several different currencies.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Skoorb
It's as good a guess as any. The problem is the news continues to be bad, so why would the market go up? I am still putting my 401k 100% into stocks knowing that if I can hold on (meaning I don't have to tap during some crisis), then I'll be there for the upswing, whenever that occurs.

Bad idea. All those 401(k)s out there are sitting ducks for confiscation as the unfunded retirement entitlement situation worsens. The government is willing to rape the taxpayer for a situation itself, the banks and Wall Street created, don't think for a second it won't try to rape again, this time raiding people's retirement accounts directly.

Personally, I'm going to take the tax hit and go offshore, perhaps in several different accounts in several different currencies.

If things get that bad that they do that in the fairly near term where I invest my money becomes almost meaningless anyway unless it can be eaten or fired out of a gun.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
If things get that bad that they do that in the fairly near term where I invest my money becomes almost meaningless anyway unless it can be eaten or fired out of a gun.

It didn't get quite that bad during the Great Depression and the government still confiscated everyone's gold.

 

[frostedflakes]

The government isn't going to confiscate people's private assets...

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: frostedflakes
The government isn't going to confiscate people's private assets...

They will indirectly by eliminating their tax exemption. They probably won't raid the accounts directly unless they force the funds into some social security style government fund, which is another possibility.

 

[Cattlegod]

Stock market is retarded today. Down 300 then up like a bandit, wtf?

the only news that i see is walmart says the holiday season is 'optimistic'

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: frostedflakes
The government isn't going to confiscate people's private assets...

They will indirectly by eliminating their tax exemption. They probably won't raid the accounts directly unless they force the funds into some social security style government fund, which is another possibility.

That would be more of a concern for Roth. With my 401k I've not paid the taxes anyway, so if they suddenly started removing the tax benefits it would be akin to saying 401ks are no more, you can move this money into your scottrade account.

 

[ultra laser]

When was the last time the market was this volatile?

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
That would be more of a concern for Roth. With my 401k I've not paid the taxes anyway, so if they suddenly started removing the tax benefits it would be akin to saying 401ks are no more, you can move this money into your scottrade account.

True enough. Then the question is: what if they force it into a government fund, like some kind of new Social Security program?

 

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

It didn't get quite that bad during the Great Depression and the government still confiscated everyone's gold.

This factual statement is flat out wrong. Please provide some proof for your assertion-which is directly contrary to the rights guaranteed under the Constitution.

I wish the OP would revise the title of this thread-everytime I see Dow Jones and 9500 I think happy days are here again. The difference a month or two makes.