Dow 9500 ... Where we go from here...

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Cattlegod
I totally agree with you that the housing market is going to continue to decline until that time frame. however, that information is available and public. This means that it should already be built into the stock price. The only thing that would change is if it ends up being worse than we think.

You forget that the stock market right now is being propped up by the bailout plan, which will be an utter failure as long as home prices continue to decline. Not only that, but a number of 'experts' keep saying that the housing market is at a bottom or near a bottom, which is completely false.

 

[Budarow]

Originally posted by: Cattlegod

Originally posted by: Budarow

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Budarow
It's gonna go up and down for the next 18 months with a steady downward trend. The market never goes down in a straight line. All the peeps in the money business wouldn't bring much of a paycheck home week to week if it fell all at once.

down for 18 months? I hope not, that's terrible.

I think it gets worse...it'll take ~18 months to truely see the bottom in the U.S. equity markets. From there, it'll take many years to recover and 99.99% of us will be stuck with a much reduced standard of living. And the U.S. will still be considerably better off than the rest of the world. Don't plan on making any money in the emerging markets either. They are truely going back to the stone ages. Middle class my ass...they needed 20-30 more years of the U.S. buying everything they could pump out to form a middle class which wasn't totally dependent on U.S. consumers.

If you haven't already, figure out a way to short this market (preferably in a ROTH account). You won't be sorry in 12 months.

I'm not necessarily sure I agree with that. There were billions of dollars pulled out of the equity market and dumped into government bonds and bank accounts. The money didn't vanish, it is sitting on the sidelines. Once the market stabilizes and we stop seeing 3+% moves in a single day, that money will be dumped back in, making a run back up to 10-12000 quickly.

I agree with you in that there's a lot of money sitting on the sidelines; however, when the market drops sharply, a LOT of money just disappears forever (i.e., a $1 drop in the dow may net other parties ~$0.85, and the $0.15 is just plain gone).

I wish the DOW would hit 10000 and the Nasdaq 1800 in the next couple weeks...I'd short the hell out of it.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Budarow
I wish the DOW would hit 10000 and the Nasdaq 1800 in the next couple weeks...I'd short the hell out of it.

You would short the hell out of a market that is going up? You must love to lose money.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Budarow
I wish the DOW would hit 10000 and the Nasdaq 1800 in the next couple weeks...I'd short the hell out of it.

You would short the hell out of a market that is going up? You must love to lose money.

The point flew over your head, as it usually does in these discussions.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Evan
The point flew over your head, as it usually does in these discussions.

I got the 'point' but it doesn't make any sense. So the DOW goes to 10,000, he would have no way of knowing if it was going to go up even more in the short term.

As for you, you have not refuted anything I have said. Last refutation I saw was 'rofl ^'

Of course you couldn't refute what I said because what I said came from a credible expert source.

 

[Engineer]

Looking at the Asian markets shedding between 8-10% overnight, it could be ugly today. Futures look downright bad right now.....

DJIA INDEX 8,240.00 -534.00 8,769.00 8,778.00 8,240.00 05:02
S&P 500 855.20 -60.00 914.70 917.10 855.20 05:00
NASDAQ 100 1,179.00 -74.50 1,248.50 1,253.25 1,179.00 05:01

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Looking at the Asian markets shedding between 8-10% overnight, it could be ugly today. Futures look downright bad right now.....

DJIA INDEX 8,240.00 -534.00 8,769.00 8,778.00 8,240.00 05:02
S&P 500 855.20 -60.00 914.70 917.10 855.20 05:00
NASDAQ 100 1,179.00 -74.50 1,248.50 1,253.25 1,179.00 05:01

Yeah that's about as bad as I've seen them this entire time.

Didn't the asian markets drop bad before yesterday when the dow closed up? Oh well, this time that certainly may not happen. We're heading toward sub 8k, ultimately. I think.

 

[StageLeft]

Wow, apparently S&P futures are down as low as it's possible to get them; they have a limit on how low they will get and they are at it. BRUTAL.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Wow, apparently S&P futures are down as low as it's possible to get them; they have a limit on how low they will get and they are at it. BRUTAL.

Yep, futures trading halted.

 

[alien42]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Wow, apparently S&P futures are down as low as it's possible to get them; they have a limit on how low they will get and they are at it. BRUTAL.

S&P -60
DOW -548

the open is going to be brutal. here are the current circuit breaker trigger points...

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Tr...aspx?id=CircuitBreaker

 

[Regs]

It's going to be a sad day for a lot of people. We're going to need to install plexi-glass in all our tall buildings.

 

[boomerang]

Here's my plan.

Shut down the markets for two weeks. In that timeframe, storm the headquarters of every bank, invesment firm, hedge fund and the like that contributed to this meltdown. Take every officer of every one of these companies and blindfold them, line them up against a wall and shoot them dead.

Then with the heads of the first wave on sticks, the people can storm Congress and do the same to Congressional leaders.

Then start everything back up with all the so-called leaders left having a new fear coursing through their veins.

I kid.

But there is a certain ring of justice to it. A justice the American people will never get with these people still in power. They're giving themselves bonuses.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: Regs
It's going to be a sad day for a lot of people. We're going to need to install plexi-glass in all our tall buildings.

I hope not ....

It is October 24th, however ...

:shocked:

 

[ranmaniac]

I normally can't function on less than 3 hours of sleep, but I'm more wide awake than ever after the news from around midnight and 1 am today concerning the Asian and European markets. Dow 6000 perhaps?

 

[Engineer]

CNNMoney is stating that the FED is looking at cutting rates again.

Click me!

 

[ranmaniac]

This has to be the worst decade in most people's lives on this forum and it's not even over.

We have shitty President
shitty Congress
shitty markets
shitty music


Even more good shitty news, this year is supposed to have one of the coldest winters on record.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: ranmaniac
This has to be the worst decade in most people's lives on this forum and it's not even over.

We have shitty President
shitty Congress
shitty markets
shitty music


Even more good shitty news, this year is supposed to have one of the coldest winters on record.

Yup, I hated Linkin Park's last album, too. Shameful.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: ranmaniac
I normally can't function on less than 3 hours of sleep, but I'm more wide awake than ever after the news from around midnight and 1 am today concerning the Asian and European markets.

Dow 6000 perhaps?

Not sure if it can drop that much because they already froze futures trading because it dropped -550 before the opening bell this morning.

Most they will allow it to drop is -1100 so it can land around 7500 today.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: ranmaniac
I normally can't function on less than 3 hours of sleep, but I'm more wide awake than ever after the news from around midnight and 1 am today concerning the Asian and European markets.

Dow 6000 perhaps?

Not sure if it can drop that much because they already froze futures trading because it dropped -550 before the opening bell this morning.

Most they will allow it to drop is -1100 so it can land around 7500 today.

fail

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: ranmaniac
I normally can't function on less than 3 hours of sleep, but I'm more wide awake than ever after the news from around midnight and 1 am today concerning the Asian and European markets.

Dow 6000 perhaps?

Not sure if it can drop that much because they already froze futures trading because it dropped -550 before the opening bell this morning.

Most they will allow it to drop is -1100 so it can land around 7500 today.

fail

Before 1:00 p.m. 1:00 p.m. - 1:59 p.m. 2:00 p.m. - 2:30 p.m. After 2:30 p.m.
1,100-point Decline in the Dow 1 Hour Halt 1 Hour Halt ½ Hour Halt No Effect
2,200-point Decline in the Dow 2 Hour Halt 1 Hour Halt Close For Day Close For Day
3,350-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day Close For Day Close For Day Close For Day

Never saw the 2,200 and 3,350 before.

I never claimed to be any sort of an expert on the Monopoly game for the rich.

I did however state that I believe it will drop 90% like in 1929 precisely because it is a game to the rich.

Next stop 3600

 

[StageLeft]

90% from peak would actually be 1400.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
90% from peak would actually be 1400.

From the high it had?

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Skoorb
90% from peak would actually be 1400.

From the high it had?

Yep last year.

Down now -450, I'm watching real time, it's way more fun than refreshing finance.yahoo.com or money cnn.

 

[Balt]

Down 500 in the first 5 minutes. Hooray.

 

[Thump553]

I completely retract the statement I made a few days ago saying that since we've had two days of stability, maybe the markets are coming back. The thirid day ended up in another wipelash nose dive, yesterday and another wild ride up and down for little or no reason. Today started with the futures maxed down, my portfolio opened about 10% down and all have been climbing steadily up since.

This market has firmly re-entered the crap shoot phase it was in a few weeks back. There are lots of ways to lose money (buy & hold is almost a guaranty, at least for the short term) and no way to make money unless you guess lucky. Going short is no guaranty because this market can (and does) go down 500 points just as easily at it goes up.

If anyone has any market strategies that work, I'd like a PM.