Dow 9500 ... Where we go from here...

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: BoberFett
:roll:

Let us know when you get out of school, boy.

Been out for a while and make more than you, podunk.

Sure you do. I know there's an impressive array of high salaried jobs for people who are proficient with GPUs from 2008.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: BoberFett
:roll:

Let us know when you get out of school, boy.

Been out for a while and make more than you, podunk.

Sure you do. I know there's an impressive array of high salaried jobs for people who are proficient with GPUs from 2008.

Says the podunk in Minnesota making less than me.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: BoberFett
:roll:

Let us know when you get out of school, boy.

Been out for a while and make more than you, podunk.

Sure you do. I know there's an impressive array of high salaried jobs for people who are proficient with GPUs from 2008.

Says the podunk in Minnesota making less than me.

Keep believing that, boy.

 

[dmcowen674]

It's "cratering" again today

Down -350 already to 8600

 

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's "cratering" again today

Down -350 already to 8600

Not cratering, but down. A good sign is that Friday and Monday were two "normal" days in a row-none of the extreme volatility up or down for no significant reason. Today is pretty steady (down) -so far.

Today I think the stock market is slipping back into a negative thinking frame of mind-good news is pretty much ignored, and bad news overreacted to. Case in point-Apple (AAPL) released its quarterly earnings report yesterday after the market closed. Yesterday AAPL declined 7% going into the earnings. They hit a home run with the earnings report (especially when you consider they defer iPhone revenue over 8 quarters, rather than take it all in the quarter of sale) and gave their usual dour guidance forward-based solely on the weak economy. AAPL has $25 billion in cash and no debt, so they can weather just about anything. What happened? AAPL stock popped up in the aftermarket, but as of now it is trading roughly where it was 24 hours ago-before the earnings came out.

 

[Cattlegod]

ugh, we are getting crushed in the last 1/2 hour. only 10 min till close. I hope there is a last minute rally

 

[StageLeft]

it's all over cattlegod.

I'm actually kind of bored of the market now. What's another 5% day

 

[mxyzptlk]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: BoberFett
:roll:

Let us know when you get out of school, boy.

Been out for a while and make more than you, podunk.

Sure you do. I know there's an impressive array of high salaried jobs for people who are proficient with GPUs from 2008.

Says the podunk in Minnesota making less than me.

Keep believing that, boy.

Will you two just whip it out and lay it on the table so we can measure, laugh at the loser then move on?

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: mxyzptlk
Will you two just whip it out and lay it on the table so we can measure, laugh at the loser then move on?

:laugh:

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Thump553

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
It's "cratering" again today

Down -350 already to 8600

Not cratering, but down.

-500 not cratering?

 

[StageLeft]

Sadly, it was craterted today

 

[Budarow]

It's gonna go up and down for the next 18 months with a steady downward trend. The market never goes down in a straight line. All the peeps in the money business wouldn't bring much of a paycheck home week to week if it fell all at once.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Budarow
It's gonna go up and down for the next 18 months with a steady downward trend. The market never goes down in a straight line. All the peeps in the money business wouldn't bring much of a paycheck home week to week if it fell all at once.

down for 18 months? I hope not, that's terrible.

 

[Lemon law]

The big losers in this will be stockbrokers, as the whole world realizes these folks can't create a dimes worth of wealth, and do not deserve their over inflated salaries. And if we do not regulate the shit out of them, they will bet your money and mine in what amounts to a gambling casino. The epic fail has already resulted.

 

[Budarow]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
The big losers in this will be stockbrokers, as the whole world realizes these folks can't create a dimes worth of wealth, and do not deserve their over inflated salaries. And if we do not regulate the shit out of them, they will bet your money and mine in what amounts to a gambling casino. The epic fail has already resulted.

I read a story in the WSJ tonight regarding businesses in South America and Mexico betting heavily on the fall of the U.S. currency relative to their own. I'm talking about clothing chains, super market chains, etc. Apparently, they were luried in by fast talking reps from firms like Goldman who actually financed the currency bets. When the U.S. dollar starting climbing, these firms lost hundreds of millions (even billions) of $$$.

Pretty soon brokerages won't be able to convince a super market chain to sell groceries.

What a bunch of crooks and what a bunch of greedy suckers controlling these firms who had no business trying to profit from currency trades.

The whole damn world is sinking into the abyss and it's going to take 20 years for the U.S. to dig itself out. I'll be lucky to have a job in 3-6 months. I work in the environmental field doing due diligence for commercial property transactions and deleveraging of commercial properties will be the next major shoe to drop here in the U.S.

This truely blows.

 

[Budarow]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Budarow
It's gonna go up and down for the next 18 months with a steady downward trend. The market never goes down in a straight line. All the peeps in the money business wouldn't bring much of a paycheck home week to week if it fell all at once.

down for 18 months? I hope not, that's terrible.

I think it gets worse...it'll take ~18 months to truely see the bottom in the U.S. equity markets. From there, it'll take many years to recover and 99.99% of us will be stuck with a much reduced standard of living. And the U.S. will still be considerably better off than the rest of the world. Don't plan on making any money in the emerging markets either. They are truely going back to the stone ages. Middle class my ass...they needed 20-30 more years of the U.S. buying everything they could pump out to form a middle class which wasn't totally dependent on U.S. consumers.

If you haven't already, figure out a way to short this market (preferably in a ROTH account). You won't be sorry in 12 months.

 

[bamx2]

I agree with the previous post and think the Dow will go down (maybe to 6000) . Educate yourself . Start by reading some of the macroeconomics blogs at www.26econ.com , www.tickerforum.org
etc .

 

[Cattlegod]

Originally posted by: Budarow

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: Budarow
It's gonna go up and down for the next 18 months with a steady downward trend. The market never goes down in a straight line. All the peeps in the money business wouldn't bring much of a paycheck home week to week if it fell all at once.

down for 18 months? I hope not, that's terrible.

I think it gets worse...it'll take ~18 months to truely see the bottom in the U.S. equity markets. From there, it'll take many years to recover and 99.99% of us will be stuck with a much reduced standard of living. And the U.S. will still be considerably better off than the rest of the world. Don't plan on making any money in the emerging markets either. They are truely going back to the stone ages. Middle class my ass...they needed 20-30 more years of the U.S. buying everything they could pump out to form a middle class which wasn't totally dependent on U.S. consumers.

If you haven't already, figure out a way to short this market (preferably in a ROTH account). You won't be sorry in 12 months.

I'm not necessarily sure I agree with that. There were billions of dollars pulled out of the equity market and dumped into government bonds and bank accounts. The money didn't vanish, it is sitting on the sidelines. Once the market stabilizes and we stop seeing 3+% moves in a single day, that money will be dumped back in, making a run back up to 10-12000 quickly.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Cattlegod

I'm not necessarily sure I agree with that. There were billions of dollars pulled out of the equity market and dumped into government bonds and bank accounts. The money didn't vanish, it is sitting on the sidelines. Once the market stabilizes and we stop seeing 3+% moves in a single day, that money will be dumped back in, making a run back up to 10-12000 quickly.

Not going to happen anytime soon. First of all, earnings reports are going to continue to drop as the consumer debt market blows up by early 2009. Second of all, home values will continue to drop pushing more homeowners under water (owing more on their house than it is worth), causing more mortgage defaults and more foreclosures, putting even more pressure on banks that are already battered.

Here is a crash course video on bubbles:

Text

The graphs are startling. The recent housing bubble is massive and the housing price index still has a long way to go down before it returns to much saner levels. According to that video housing prices will continue to decline into 2012-2015. Things are going to get nastier.

 

[Jaskalas]

Just wait until a bleak holiday season bankrupts thousands of businesses across the nation.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Cattlegod

I'm not necessarily sure I agree with that. There were billions of dollars pulled out of the equity market and dumped into government bonds and bank accounts. The money didn't vanish, it is sitting on the sidelines. Once the market stabilizes and we stop seeing 3+% moves in a single day, that money will be dumped back in, making a run back up to 10-12000 quickly.

Not going to happen anytime soon. First of all, earnings reports are going to continue to drop as the consumer debt market blows up by early 2009. Second of all, home values will continue to drop pushing more homeowners under water (owing more on their house than it is worth), causing more mortgage defaults and more foreclosures, putting even more pressure on banks that are already battered.

Here is a crash course video on bubbles:

Text

The graphs are startling. The recent housing bubble is massive and the housing price index still has a long way to go down before it returns to much saner levels. According to that video housing prices will continue to decline into 2012-2015. Things are going to get nastier.

Can't watch that now but I was under the impression that the general trend of increases in housing prices had nearly corrected itself, so it was brutal over priced but has retracted so much that houses now cost similar to what they should cost based on a line drawn of house prices over time. Are we still severely inflated?

In any case, as with other bubbles I think it's natural to overcontract after the initial overpricing.

Does the vid show we're still over that historical line?

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Just wait until a bleak holiday season bankrupts thousands of businesses across the nation.

Hey, we might not have any savings to buy stuff with but what about our credit cards? Oh wait, those are maxed out too...

Damn!

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Just wait until a bleak holiday season bankrupts thousands of businesses across the nation.

Hey, we might not have any savings to buy stuff with but what about our credit cards? Oh wait, those are maxed out too...

Damn!

No worries, we can get HELOCs to pay them off before Christmas!

In reality I do think Xmas spending will be way down this year.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Can't watch that now but I was under the impression that the general trend of increases in housing prices had nearly corrected itself, so it was brutal over priced but has retracted so much that houses now cost similar to what they should cost based on a line drawn of house prices over time. Are we still severely inflated?

In any case, as with other bubbles I think it's natural to overcontract after the initial overpricing.

Does the vid show we're still over that historical line?

They have corrected, but not enough to be back in line with average real income. That is the key indicator for what housing prices should be, and the video shows the graph historically of average real income and housing prices. The graph shows those two lines following each other for decades, except for a couple of small housing bubbles here and there.

However, from the late '90s when the current bubble started until 2006 when prices peaked, housing prices were on a different planet compared to average real incomes. The gap shown is absolutely and shockingly unprecedented. By far this is the largest bubble of any kind in history, period. The housing bubble is unwinding now but prices are still not in line with average real income, and as real income contracts, it will have to fall even further.

 

[Cattlegod]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Cattlegod

I'm not necessarily sure I agree with that. There were billions of dollars pulled out of the equity market and dumped into government bonds and bank accounts. The money didn't vanish, it is sitting on the sidelines. Once the market stabilizes and we stop seeing 3+% moves in a single day, that money will be dumped back in, making a run back up to 10-12000 quickly.

Not going to happen anytime soon. First of all, earnings reports are going to continue to drop as the consumer debt market blows up by early 2009. Second of all, home values will continue to drop pushing more homeowners under water (owing more on their house than it is worth), causing more mortgage defaults and more foreclosures, putting even more pressure on banks that are already battered.

Here is a crash course video on bubbles:

Text

The graphs are startling. The recent housing bubble is massive and the housing price index still has a long way to go down before it returns to much saner levels. According to that video housing prices will continue to decline into 2012-2015. Things are going to get nastier.

I totally agree with you that the housing market is going to continue to decline until that time frame. however, that information is available and public. This means that it should already be built into the stock price. The only thing that would change is if it ends up being worse than we think.