Bitcoin mining is ruining 280x prices for us

[RussianSensation]

I know man this is a complete bull**t. All those idiots think they can make a fortune by simply running their rigs.

I really hope asics come out for scrypt so it puts an end to gpu mining once and for all like it did to bitcoin.

The amount of butthurt from scrypt mining is reaching new levels for sure. In the beginning, many of us advised people to try bitcoin mining because for the first time in the history of GPUs, they could pay for thesmelves. Unfortunately, many people completely ignored. this advise. Now 3-4 years of bitcoin mining, countless GPUs paid, enough $ made for decades of free GPU upgrades - all ignored by NV users who I might add jumped on $650 780 and even $1000 GTX690/Titans.

Then came litecoin mining and again, advice to jump on it was ignored. And now those who purchased expensive 780s are complaining the prices of AMD's GPUs are rising? Really?

Here is the reality. NV managed to "convince" the market that Titan at $1K was a good deal vs. $350 HD7970GE, that GTX780 at $650 was a reasonably priced card and that $399-$449 GTX770 2-4GB were reasonably priced. Ya, right!!! All of those cards were a rip-off for gaming before any R9 card was even announced.

It wasn't until AMD released R9 280X at $299, R9 290 at $399 and R9 290X at $549 that people woke up to the insane rip-off prices NV was pulling on all of us.

Let's put things into context. If it wasn't for AMD launching R9 280X, R9 290/X, NV would continue with their Apple-like pricing. Even if R9 290 is $499 instead of $399, do people not realize that AMD brought Titan like performance for half the price less than a year later? Or was it NV that voluntarily dropped the MSRP of 780 from $649 to $499? :whiste:

Even now at $499, R9 290 is still a better deal than 780. You can buy 2-3 of them and they will still manage to pay for themselves before the summer. That is the reason they keep selling well. If someone doesn't want to learn scrypt mining, it's their fault, not AMD's. If NV GPUs could pay for themselves running a simple program, would people complain too? I find that hard to believe.

It seems when AMD's cards sell poorly, people complain that they are not competitive. Now we have AMD mopping the floor with NV in a task that allows AMD GPUs to pay for themselves over time and people still complain because they don't want to learn how to set the program up. If it wasn't for AMD, we'd still be paying $649 for a basic 780 and yet NV is getting none of the blame for high GPU prices, but AMD is because their GPUs are selling out since they pay for themselves over time. Unbelievable!!

I would love for NV to release a GPU architecture that is more competitive at scrypt mining. It would be great for the GPU industry if we could buy NV or AMD GPUs and over time have them pay for themselves. This would allow NV and AMD to charge $700-1000 for GPUs and with higher margins, they would reinvest R&D into future architectures while PC gamers would get GPUs that are blazing fast for games without necessitating spending their own funds! Instead, some people continue to look at scrypt mining as a detriment to PC gamers because they are close minded. Instead, for many PC gamers, scrypt mining is way to subsidize expensive GPU upgrades that would not have happened otherwise! This idea that one must either a PC gamer or a miner is simply made up. You can keep complaining or adapt (or buy NV and move on).

You'd think even the most hardcore NV users would smarten up, buy 2-3 AMD GPUs and once they are paid for, sell them, and buy 3 780s or Maxwell cards. I guess some people are just too stubborn to think outside the box. Blaming AMD isn't going to get you free Maxwell cards......

 

[nwo]

Well said RS :thumbsup:

Ok, this might be a pointless question because no one knows the answer just yet, but does anyone have a guess as to when this whole lite-coin mining thing will take a dive in profitability?

It recently did take a big dive. BTC went from $1200+ to under $500 last month. But now it's recovering and already back up to around $700. Same goes with LTC. Not only did the difficulty sky rocket, but LTC prices went from over $40 down to $10 in the same period. LTC prices are now around $20, with difficulty rising which cuts most profitability in half or even more, depending on when was your "starting" point.

 

[KompuKare]

I really hope asics come out for scrypt so it puts an end to gpu mining once and for all like it did to bitcoin.

Never say never...

...But scrypt mining is very different to bitcoin mining. It was initially designed to be CPU-only (due to needing high memory bandwidth), but eventually adapted to GPUs. But the high memory bandwidth is most likely not something which can be worked around so custom ASICs would have to either incorporate GDDR5 plus a decent memory controller. Which would mean they could only scale so far (while 512-bit memory controller is not a limit as such, the pin-out would make anything wider very hard). Alternative, maybe an ASIC with clever cache could work but either way both solutions require IC design knowhow far in excess of what the SHA-256 ASICs required.

Like I said, never say never but I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[thilanliyan]

Instead, for many PC gamers, scrypt mining is way to subsidize expensive GPU upgrades that would not have happened otherwise! This idea that one must either a PC gamer or a miner is simply made up. You can keep complaining or adapt (or buy NV and move on).

Very true. I would have never bought the amount of cards I did had it not been for mining. And the cards I did buy have paid for themselves already.

You'd think even the most hardcore NV users would smarten up, buy 2-3 AMD GPUs and once they are paid for, sell them, and buy 3 780s or Maxwell cards. I guess some people are just too stubborn to think outside the box. Blaming AMD isn't going to get you free Maxwell cards......

Haha so true...even me who some would probably consider an AMD fan, is seriously considering nVidia for my next gaming card (last nV card I had was a GTX460) paid for by profits from mining. I personally have never had showstopper problems from either brand so I'm willing to go back and forth. It's just that recently I've stuck with AMD because of mining.

 

[taq8ojh]

I've had Asus 280x ordered since 6th december. Today the store mailed me the cards are not available, they have no idea when will they appear, and there are not even any alternatives. I am getting royally pissed off.

 

[46andtool]

Well said RS :thumbsup:


It recently did take a big dive. BTC went from $1200+ to under $500 last month. But now it's recovering and already back up to around $700. Same goes with LTC. Not only did the difficulty sky rocket, but LTC prices went from over $40 down to $10 in the same period. LTC prices are now around $20, with difficulty rising which cuts most profitability in half or even more, depending on when was your "starting" point.

I guess the better and more obvious question is when will people stop buying AMD cards like hotcakes so that the prices come back down out of the stratosphere, I wanna r290 damnit!

 

[KingFatty]

There are tons of miners that don't give a crap about PC gaming so they will not be repeat customers if mining implodes. So we have a situation where NV is selling more cards to gamers by a large margin, because few are willing to pay over MSRP in the states.
...
So AMD is making cash in the short term. But are they getting loyal customers? I'd argue that they aren't. Once mining isn't profitable, those customers who only mine won't be returning IMO.

I'm curious what people think will happen to all the AMD cards, once scrypt-based mining is not profitable?

I don't think the non-gamer ex-miners will just throw away the video cards. I think those video cards will end up in the hands of gamers, perhaps via eBay or craigslist, after mining becomes unprofitable.

So part of me believes that it's still a net gain for AMD, because they sell all their video cards right now to miners, and eventually those cards will be used by gamers (via 2nd-hand sales) who may become loyal future AMD buyers.

I'm just not fully convinced that selling a video card to a non-gamer miner right now automatically equates to a lost "gamer" sale, because eventually the card will be used by a gamer after the mining becomes unprofitable (e.g., due to inevitable difficulty increase, regardless of electricity costs).

 

[BallaTheFeared]

The amount of butthurt from scrypt mining is reaching new levels for sure. In the beginning, many of us advised people to try bitcoin mining because for the first time in the history of GPUs, they could pay for thesmelves. Unfortunately, many people completely ignored. this advise. Now 3-4 years of bitcoin mining, countless GPUs paid, enough $ made for decades of free GPU upgrades - all ignored by NV users who I might add jumped on $650 780 and even $1000 GTX690/Titans.

Then came litecoin mining and again, advice to jump on it was ignored. And now those who purchased expensive 780s are complaining the prices of AMD's GPUs are rising? Really?

Here is the reality. NV managed to "convince" the market that Titan at $1K was a good deal vs. $350 HD7970GE, that GTX780 at $650 was a reasonably priced card and that $399-$449 GTX770 2-4GB were reasonably priced. Ya, right!!! All of those cards were a rip-off for gaming before any R9 card was even announced.

It wasn't until AMD released R9 280X at $299, R9 290 at $399 and R9 290X at $549 that people woke up to the insane rip-off prices NV was pulling on all of us.

Let's put things into context. If it wasn't for AMD launching R9 280X, R9 290/X, NV would continue with their Apple-like pricing. Even if R9 290 is $499 instead of $399, do people not realize that AMD brought Titan like performance for half the price less than a year later? Or was it NV that voluntarily dropped the MSRP of 780 from $649 to $499? :whiste:

Even now at $499, R9 290 is still a better deal than 780. You can buy 2-3 of them and they will still manage to pay for themselves before the summer. That is the reason they keep selling well. If someone doesn't want to learn scrypt mining, it's their fault, not AMD's. If NV GPUs could pay for themselves running a simple program, would people complain too? I find that hard to believe.

It seems when AMD's cards sell poorly, people complain that they are not competitive. Now we have AMD mopping the floor with NV in a task that allows AMD GPUs to pay for themselves over time and people still complain because they don't want to learn how to set the program up. If it wasn't for AMD, we'd still be paying $649 for a basic 780 and yet NV is getting none of the blame for high GPU prices, but AMD is because their GPUs are selling out since they pay for themselves over time. Unbelievable!!

I would love for NV to release a GPU architecture that is more competitive at scrypt mining. It would be great for the GPU industry if we could buy NV or AMD GPUs and over time have them pay for themselves. This would allow NV and AMD to charge $700-1000 for GPUs and with higher margins, they would reinvest R&D into future architectures while PC gamers would get GPUs that are blazing fast for games without necessitating spending their own funds! Instead, some people continue to look at scrypt mining as a detriment to PC gamers because they are close minded. Instead, for many PC gamers, scrypt mining is way to subsidize expensive GPU upgrades that would not have happened otherwise! This idea that one must either a PC gamer or a miner is simply made up. You can keep complaining or adapt (or buy NV and move on).

You'd think even the most hardcore NV users would smarten up, buy 2-3 AMD GPUs and once they are paid for, sell them, and buy 3 780s or Maxwell cards. I guess some people are just too stubborn to think outside the box. Blaming AMD isn't going to get you free Maxwell cards......

I think you're stuck in a time warp from mid 2013, and you've been offline and out of the loop maintaining all those mining rigs.

 

[blackened23]

It seems when AMD's cards sell poorly, people complain that they are not competitive. Now we have AMD mopping the floor with NV in a task that allows AMD GPUs to pay for themselves over time and people still complain because they don't want to learn how to set the program up. If it wasn't for AMD, we'd still be paying $649 for a basic 780 and yet NV is getting none of the blame for high GPU prices, but AMD is because their GPUs are selling out since they pay for themselves over time.

This is actually not true. Nvidia GPUs are still far outselling their AMD counterparts, it could be due to supply constraints or whatever but at the biggest US etailer, nvidia has dominant sales figures over AMD as seen here:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...22/ref=sr_bs_1

This list is dynamically updated on the hour for top 100 rankings. As you can see nvidia is actually mopping up the sales, at least in the states, with both the GTX 780 and GTX 780ti taking up several top 40 spots.

I think this is because miners are taking away all of the supply from the actual intended demographic - PC gamers. And PC gamers aren't going to buy AMD at inflated prices. And let's be real here for a second - AMD cannot charge the same price as nvidia can, because AMD has had and still has significant software issues and problems that nvidia has not had in years. Still to date AMD has not fixed microstutter in DX9 crossfire. Still to date they have not added new features since 2010. Still to date they haven't fixed microstutter in CF-EF. The newest WHQL? Numerous reports at OCN and HardOCP of blue screens upon reboot, HDMI audio not working, and MLAA not working. Typical AMD software issues. My point here is that if AMD and nvidia are the same price for the same performance, most people will go with nvidia for their more polished software. Now, if AMD has a value proposition? Heck yeah, then AMD becomes a great purchase. I personally wouldn't hesitate to get an aftermarket 290 at around 420-430$. At 499$ though? It becomes a more difficult proposition.

I wanted to get a Tri-X 290 card for a secondary rig and I still may do that if the price is right. But not at 499$. I can get a GTX 780 with significantly better and more polished software for that price. In the meantime, i'm using a GTX 760 for my backup rig, but we'll see if the pricing situation changes for AMD. I feel that AMD needs cheaper prices to be viable. Until their software becomes significantly better with more useful features AMD cannot charge those types of prices to actual games. They can only charge those prices to hashrate miner freaks. Nvidia adds features with every other WHQL or every 3rd WHQL. Like I said, AMD never adds features. Not since 2010 at least.

 

[blackened23]

Let me add on to this. I really feel like AMD should make a dedicated mining SKU. They could charge whatever they want and maintain their margins. Let's say, they made a dedicated mining SKU for around 300-350$ JUST for miners. It wouldn't have true audio. It wouldn't have Mantle. Or dual BIOS. Or any extra VRAM. Basically, it would be bare bones but would feature full hashrate via a Tahiti XL GPU chip. AMD could make insanely high margins off of such a SKU because they could skimp on the gaming features, but it could have a 100% hashrate of the Tahiti XL.

I feel like this would be the win-win situation. A dedicated SKU for miners, while PC gamers could actually buy R9 290 GPUs without dealing with bullcrap prices. Make no mistake, a lot of gamers aren't willing to pay above MSRP in the states for AMD. Just because that becomes difficult when aftermarket 290 cards cost MORE than the GTX 780. And nvidia has more software features that makes nvidia an attractive option even IF AMD is the same price/perf as nvidia. The Tri-X 290 is 550$ at most etailers in the states now, if not more. Several aftermarket 290s are 579$+. That is ridiculous.

If there were a dedicated mining SKU, AMD could still make a ton of money from miners. Simultaneously, PC gamers would be able to get their hands on the 290 and 290X GPUs with no problems, and AMD wouldn't be missing out on the true demographic for their 290 cards. PC gamers. Right now a large portion of the sales aren't going to PC gamers, but to people who only care about hashrate. There are exceptions, but many miners do not game.

So I feel this would be a great solution for AMD.

edit: also keep in mind the new CUDA miner vastly improves nvidia's hashrate. AMD is still the king by far, but nvidia is at least somewhat competitive at this point. With a dedicated mining SKU? This is a non issue. AMD gets sales from *both* miners and PC gamers. The situation now is, a lot of games wanted to go with a 290 but went with nvidia instead - a dedicated mining SKU would have them staying with AMD for their PC gaming GPU.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

You'd think even the most hardcore NV users would smarten up, buy 2-3 AMD GPUs and once they are paid for, sell them, and buy 3 780s or Maxwell cards. I guess some people are just too stubborn to think outside the box. Blaming AMD isn't going to get you free Maxwell cards......

That's what I did... except I bought like 10 AMD GPUs. But I'm not selling mine off even though they're paid for by now. I just use them to buy more.

 

[nwo]

I guess the better and more obvious question is when will people stop buying AMD cards like hotcakes so that the prices come back down out of the stratosphere, I wanna r290 damnit!

Not for a while, because even after the profitability decline and the inflated prices, scrypt mining is still profitable and most cards will still pay for themselves in a couple of months. Therefore, demand will remain high for a while, most likely until scrypt ASICs come out. In the meantime, AMD just has to keep up with the supply.

If there were a dedicated mining SKU, AMD could still make a ton of money from miners. Simultaneously, PC gamers would be able to get their hands on the 290 and 290X GPUs with no problems, and AMD wouldn't be missing out on the true demographic for their 290 cards. PC gamers. Right now a large portion of the sales aren't going to PC gamers, but to people who only care about hashrate. There are exceptions, but many miners do not game.

So I feel this would be a great solution for AMD.

What makes scrypt mining so attractive is that the cards have a dual purpose. Gaming and mining. One of the benefits is that these cards will maintain their value over time better than a dedicated mining SKU. The prices of a dedicated mining SKU would be directly related to their profitability ratios. That's how it is with ASICs... When they first come out, their pre-order price is sky high because at that present time profitability, they will pay for themselves rather quickly. But a couple of months later they are pretty much worthless because by that time the difficulty has gone up and drastically reduced their profitability.

I feel AMD should just keep doing what they are doing and try their best to increase supply and capitalize on the mining bubble.

 

[dguy6789]

snip

The FUD is so strong in this one

Warning issued for personal attack.
-- stahlhart

 

[Imouto]

I think you're stuck in a time warp from mid 2013, and you've been offline and out of the loop maintaining all those mining rigs.

I can show you my pool stats showing ~450ish kH/s on a single HD 5850 and it doesn't make it true at all. It can peak and dive quite often and the only worthy results are the average over a significant amount of time. Instant readings on a pool mean nothing. Mine isn't doing ~450 kH/s or ~150 kH/s as my pool may show, it's doing ~310 kH/s.

This list is dynamically updated on the hour for top 100 rankings. As you can see nvidia is actually mopping up the sales, at least in the states, with both the GTX 780 and GTX 780ti taking up several top 40 spots.

Man. Do an hourly figure prove anything? AMD supply dried long ago, of course it won't get into best sellers if you update it on a hourly basis. It's also showing a 8400 GS in the damn second place and a HD6450 in the 6th. I'll leave up to you to figure what that means.

If that XFX 290 stock dries up you won't see it in the next hour FFS.

But you also seem to forget that AMD holds like a ~30% of the dGPU market, of course Nvidia will do better in any ranking more if you take in mind that they're supply constrained.

 

[thilanliyan]

I think you're stuck in a time warp from mid 2013, and you've been offline and out of the loop maintaining all those mining rigs.

The hash rate is very impressive with certain nV cards now, but power usage is ridiculous isn't it? What did you say last time I asked? Like 400-450w for 600kh/s? That is twice the power consumption for the same hash rate you can get with a 7950 for example. Still, it has come a long way and hopefully the hash/W gets better and better with nV cards.

 

[BallaTheFeared]

I can show you my pool stats showing ~450ish kH/s on a single HD 5850 and it doesn't make it true at all. It can peak and dive quite often and the only worthy results are the average over a significant amount of time. Instant readings on a pool mean nothing. Mine isn't doing ~450 kH/s or ~150 kH/s as my pool may show, it's doing ~310 kH/s.

Still doesn't change the fact that if the argument is a card can pay for itself AMD isn't exclusive in that respect when it comes to mining.

Nvidia cards are profitable at mining, so the contention that people who choose Nvidia over AMD despite the fact that AMD cards which aren't gaming can pay for themselves in a few months is a logically fallacy since Nvidia cards can do the same.

The less dramatized version is people choose Nvidia because they play video games, not make less per day than some make per hour of actual work.

The hash rate is very impressive with certain nV cards now, but power usage is ridiculous isn't it? What did you say last time I asked? Like 400-450w for 600kh/s? That is twice the power consumption for the same hash rate you can get with a 7950 for example. Still, it has come a long way and hopefully the hash/W gets better and better with nV cards.

If you have high rates mining doesn't make a lot of sense, if you have lower rates than it doesn't matter. The cost of electricity isn't enough to dent the profits enough to matter as the argument was presented here.

Yes AMD is faster per watt, and will earn you more money overall per card per card price. However if the idea is to simply pay for a video card in a few months, a 780 can do the same.

That was at 360w system consumption, put it into a calc at my 0.06 kw rate and tell me how long it would take mining 24/7 to pay for a $500 780.

Plus most people will wait for a bubble, when LTC jumps to 40+ for a few days you'll make even more than is being reported.

 

[blackened23]

update it on a hourly basis. It's also showing a 8400 GS in the damn second place and a HD6450 in the 6th. I'll leave up to you to figure what that means.

By all means check the top 100 later today then. Or tomorrow. If you think it's going to change. Which it won't. Nvidia has always been pretty much dominant on amazon's top 100 list, amazon's list has always looked like that. By all means keep an eye on it whenever you have a free second if you don't believe me.

Anyway, you missed the part about a dedicated mining SKU. I think that's the best approach for AMD to satisfy miners, and AMD could actually make higher margins with such a SKU by gimping some of the gaming features like true audio and dual BIOS. They could make more money off a 300$ SKU of that nature than they could with a real 280X, for example. They could get rid of the stuff that miners don't need, yet it could feature a full hashrate. Such a part would definitely ease the inflated prices on the real gaming SKUs.

And then that would actually ease the inflation on the parts that gamers would consider given "proper" pricing, the 290 and 290X. So both miners and PC gamers satisfied. What's not to like about this solution? Fact of the matter is, gamers who would have considered AMD in the states will not when their price is inflated. Then they'll just go with nvidia. Whereas miners care about hashrate and don't care about GPU prices. So miners are buying a disproportionate amount of AMD GPUs in the US, while actual PC gamers generally aren't.

 

[thilanliyan]

nm

 

[Mark R]

Not for a while, because even after the profitability decline and the inflated prices, scrypt mining is still profitable and most cards will still pay for themselves in a couple of months. Therefore, demand will remain high for a while, most likely until scrypt ASICs come out. In the meantime, AMD just has to keep up with the supply.

Scrypt ASICs are coming. However, they're nothing like the game changer that SHA-256 ASICs were.

I've seen some pics of an early prototype of a 250 kH/s scrypt FPGA miner (prototype for an ASIC miner), and basically it looks like a GPU. There's a monster pincount FPGA and tons of GDDR RAM. The preliminary design for the 1 MH/s ASIC miner has a 1024 bit memory bus, with massively-multilayer board and massive pin-count ASIC.

The expectation is that the 1st gen ASICs will not be able to compete on capital cost (they are expected to be more expensive than an equivalent speed GPU), only on power consumption.

 

[thilanliyan]

That was at 360w system consumption, put it into a calc at my 0.06 kw rate and tell me how long it would take mining 24/7 to pay for a $500 780.

So it used an extra 100w+ to get another 15kh/s? I'm going by what you wrote in the Crypto thread where you said it used ~450w to get 600kh/s. And as was mentioned, the kh/s reading the pool shows is usually incorrect (heck, one of my 290s was reading 1380kh/s once). The cgminer hash rate is the correct one. So at 360w, what is the hash rate as shown in cgminer?

 

[BallaTheFeared]

I'll run it again, whats the program you run along side cmd windows to report hash rate?

 

[thilanliyan]

I'll run it again, whats the program you run along side cmd windows to report hash rate?

Oh crap yeah you're not using cgminer. Umm, not sure, I go by the cgminer hash rate. What is Cudaminer reporting? That should be correct I'm guessing.

 

[BallaTheFeared]

I can't get a real avg off it :|

Which is why I just pulled the pool kh.

I'm pretty sure there a is program I can run along side like cgminer but not use cgminer which will give me a avg kh/s reading.

 

[Imouto]

By all means check the top 100 later today then. Or tomorrow. If you think it's going to change. Which it won't. Nvidia has always been pretty much dominant on amazon's top 100 list, amazon's list has always looked like that. By all means keep an eye on it whenever you have a free second if you don't believe me.

You're as thick as you can get. If you restock 2000 XFX 290 cards and you sell it within 15 mins it will only show up once on those hourly figures. Like I said just check that 8400GS on the second place to realize how many cards you need to show on those stats.

Going by your skewed ways of measuring things if I were Nvidia I would ramp up the production of the 8400GS chip.

But hold on on this new metric like you always do until you lose all your credibility.

Anyway, you missed the part about a dedicated mining SKU. I think that's the best approach for AMD to satisfy miners, and AMD could actually make higher margins with such a SKU by gimping some of the gaming features like true audio and dual BIOS. They could make more money off a 300$ SKU of that nature than they could with a real 280X, for example. They could get rid of the stuff that miners don't need, yet it could feature a full hashrate. Such a part would definitely ease the inflated prices on the real gaming SKUs.

And then that would actually ease the inflation on the parts that gamers would consider given "proper" pricing, the 290 and 290X. So both miners and PC gamers satisfied. What's not to like about this solution? Fact of the matter is, gamers who would have considered AMD in the states will not when their price is inflated. Then they'll just go with nvidia. Whereas miners care about hashrate and don't care about GPU prices. So miners are buying a disproportionate amount of AMD GPUs in the US, while actual PC gamers generally aren't.

AMD sells chips, not cards. Get that into your skull. I guess that no one is stopping AIBs from making a mining card like ASRock did not long ago with a mining mobo.

Infraction issued for personal attack.
-- stahlhart

 

[Imouto]

I can't get a real avg off it :|

Which is why I just pulled the pool kh.

I'm pretty sure there a is program I can run along side like cgminer but not use cgminer which will give me a avg kh/s reading.

Just join a pool that shows you expanded statistics. Givemecoins does a pretty accurate average for me.