Discussion Beyond zen 6

[inquiss]

Client SoC guys were tired (no, seriously. that's the reason).

nope.

So why can't/won't it happen again? Because they moved to 8q cadence rather than yearly then? (Or was it 6q I can't remember)

 

[adroc_thurston]

So why can't/won't it happen again?

Nope.

Because they moved to 8q cadence rather than yearly then? (Or was it 6q I can't remember)

8Q yes.
They're going for major IP/node milestones.
QCOM is the same really.

 

[Fjodor2001]

no one's gonna ask them.
You gotta pay for all that cutting edge wafer content.

Nobody’s gonna pay $600 for the lowest SKU in the Zen7 lineup (corresponded to 9600X in current lineup, which was $279 at launch). AMD can try to charge that, but they basically won’t sell much then. People will be going for much cheaper Zen5/6 or NVL-S instead.

Thrice as expensive to make so it evens out.

Thrice as expensive as what and where did you get that from?

Regardless, they won’t sell at $1299 in consumer DT market. People will only be window shopping it.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Nobody’s gonna pay $600 for the lowest SKU in the Zen7 lineup (corresponded to 9600X in current lineup, which was $279 at launch).

Well it's not the lowest.
But yes they will.

People will be going for much cheaper Zen5/6 or NVL-S instead.

Perf talks. They only have to deliver. See 9800X3D sales.
Also Z6 and DOA-S are both N2p, that's very not cheap.

Thrice as expensive as what and where did you get that from?

Doing BOM modeling isn't hard at all.

Regardless, they won’t sell at $1299 in consumer DT market. People will only be window shopping it.

Not AMD's problem.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Well it's not the lowest.
But yes they will.

Lowest and no they won’t. Not when Zen5/6 and NVL-S will be on the market at hugely lower price (less than half according to your speculation!) for close perf. Most people buying lowest SKU are price sensitive.

Perf talks. They only have to deliver. See 9800X3D sales.
Also Z6 and DOA-S are both N2p, that's very not cheap.

Because X3D monopoly. For Zen7 there will be bLLC competition.

Doing BOM modeling isn't hard at all.

Please provide the Zen7 die areas per SKU and TSMC wafer price at Zen7 launch.

Not AMD's problem.

If they don’t care about selling stuff, sure not their problem.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Not when Zen5/6 and NVL-S will be on the market at hugely lower price

It's N2p.
You also have to pay for that.

Most people buying lowest SKU are price sensitive.

Most people buy 9800X3D in case you forgot it.

For Zen7 there will be bLLC competition.

Intel L3 is dogwater and more of dogwater fixes ~nothing.

Please provide the Zen7 die areas per SKU and TSMC wafer price at Zen7 launch.

Pay me.

If they don’t care about selling stuff, sure not their problem

People gonna buy 8c X3D parts anyway.

 

[Joe NYC]

Nobody’s gonna pay $600 for the lowest SKU in the Zen7 lineup (corresponded to 9600X in current lineup, which was $279 at launch). AMD can try to charge that, but they basically won’t sell much then. People will be going for much cheaper Zen5/6 or NVL-S instead.

There may be cut down versions, but I could see AMD trying to charge $599 for full 12 core part.

Regardless, they won’t sell at $1299 in consumer DT market. People will only be window shopping it.

$999 is probably the limit, even that may be too high.

 

[Thunder 57]

Pay me.

I don't know why you keep using that stupid response. Not a chance you know what wafer will cost when Zen 7 launches. Just makes you sound like Charlie D but even wouldn't make a claim that wild.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Not a chance you know what wafer will cost when Zen 7 launches.

Yeah I do and that's easy.
The hard part is doing yield-adjusted product costs and I'm not even trying.

 

[jdubs03]

Yeah I do and that's easy.
The hard part is doing yield-adjusted product costs and I'm not even trying.

You don’t know it, unless you have inside information. At best you can project it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

 

[inquiss]

You don’t know it, unless you have inside information. At best you can project it. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

You don't know it unless you know it is a fun flex. Can I play?

 

[Fjodor2001]

$999 is probably the limit, even that may be too high.

Yupp. More likely around $799 for the top 32C SKU, which is still a big step up from current top SKU 9950X launch price at $649.

That would mean around $499 for 16C, and perhaps $349 for the 12C SKU at the bottom of the lineup (still higher than current $279 for 9600X).

X3D versions may bump the price a bit. But it depends on how well bLLC will compete in the gaming segment.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Yupp. More likely around $799 for the top 32C SKU, which is still a big step up from current top SKU 9950X launch price at $649.

That would mean around $499 for 16C, and perhaps $349 for the 12C SKU at the bottom of the lineup (still higher than current $279 for 9600X).

X3D versions may bump the price a bit. But it depends on how well bLLC will compete in the gaming segment.

You're so hopelessly optimistic it's almost cute.
Alas the reality is much, much harsher than that.

 

[jdubs03]

You don't know it unless you know it is a fun flex. Can I play?

I mean unless he works for AMD or TSMC…

 

[adroc_thurston]

I mean unless he works for AMD or TSMC…

TSMC fabs everything and for everyone, they're *the* fab.
Their prices are like barely a secret. At all!

 

[Khato]

TSMC fabs everything and for everyone, they're *the* fab.
Their prices are like barely a secret. At all!

A statement which nicely exposes the lie.

 

[Fjodor2001]

You're so hopelessly optimistic it's almost cute.
Alas the reality is much, much harsher than that.

Remember that you were so far off it was ridiculous for your Zen5 price predictions.

IIRC you said it was going to be $999 for 9950X, which turned out to be $649. It was the same BS back then from you. Expensive processing node, you’ll pay it whether you like it or not, no competition, blah blah.

I assume it’s the same source (incorrect speculation!) that you are using for your Zen7 price predictions.

 

[jpiniero]

N2 is mega expensive. No way around it really.

 

[adroc_thurston]

A statement which nicely exposes the lie.

Yeah man, whatever you say.
How's that 5.1 on PTL doing? Why are the margins 35% on 18A ramp?

N2 is mega expensive. No way around it really.

N2 isn't "mega expensive", it just costs more.
2.5D substrate also costs more.
New cIOD (on a newer node) also costs more. It all adds up.
Moreso for Zen7 which is A14.

 

[Fjodor2001]

N2 is mega expensive. No way around it really.

Not that hugely more, and things may change until Zen7 anyway. That’s a long time.

If not, only the unlimited wallet AI Datacenter companies will pay expensive price. If the AI bubble has not popped by then, consumers will go for the much cheaper previous CPU generations.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Yeah man, whatever you say.
How's that 5.1 on PTL doing? Why are the margins 35% on 18A ramp?

Just wondering, what are you going to do if 12C will be lowest regular Zen7 SKU, and 16C lowest X3D SKU? Will you stick with your current Zen5 CPU, or buy one of the Zen7 CPUs I mentioned and disable 6+ cores in the BIOS (if possible)?

 

[jpiniero]

consumers will go for the much cheaper previous CPU generations.

That is what I imagine AMD will do. Maybe even do rebrands.

Edit: To fill out the lower priced stack. I still say that AMD shouldn't bother with non-X3D desktop products, but the leaky dies have to go somewhere I guess.

 

[Fjodor2001]

That is what I imagine AMD will do. Maybe even do rebrands

This will leave the field open for the competition from Intel though. It’ll be latest Intel CPU generation vs previous from AMD.

 

[jpiniero]

This will leave the field open for the competition from Intel. It’ll be latest Intel CPU generation vs previous from AMD.

Which is fine. Probably gonna be awhile before Intel can compete with Zen 5D, let alone 6 or 7D.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Which is fine. Probably gonna be awhile before Intel can compete with Zen 5D, let alone 6 or 7D.

Compete on what arena? Gaming perf, MT perf, perf/$, … ? And enough for AMD to be one CPU generation behind in that comparison?

What do you base that on?