Question are video card prices headed down yet?

[jpiniero]

Watched a 3080 that was ending on eBay. Was at $560 but didn't hit reserve. Mistake by the seller to put a reserve? What do you think.

 

[igor_kavinski]

There may come better deals on new cards with warranty!

So my personal strategy: buy one low end card (that you are comfortable with and that can help you game sufficiently) now in case the unforeseen happens and prices shoot up.

But if the prices crash, buy a much better card or a nextgen card later. That way, you get the best of both worlds. Yes, it is not as cost effective but it may help you offset some regret when things go bad.

 

[Aapje]

@Shivansps

Also, you are talking from the perspective of a mom and pop miner, but the professional mining farms are probably going to matter way more when it comes to 2nd hand cards hitting the ebays of the world. I doubt that the professionals will want to chase those insignificant coins.

 

[Aapje]

@igor_kavinski

That strategy actually has a lot of upside and relatively little downside, since the cheaper cards are unlikely to drop as much in value as the more expensive cards. There is a big floor of low-budget gamers who would want to upgrade to a 1660 S or 6600 (XT) for a budget price, but who will never consider a $400 3080.

The main issue I see is that it's likely that we hit a period of lower prices soon, so it may be a bit late for that strategy.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I wish the 3060 12GB had gone down to $300 few months ago. But damn the Nvidia tax!

But now, we might find it going for $250 or less soon. So that's a great thing to look forward to, for budget gamers who love VRAM and RTX.

Cheapest I can find in U.A.E. is Inno3D 3060 12GB for $365.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Inno3D GeForce RTX 3060 iCHILL X3 RED Review | TweakTown

He has good things to say about this card. Good thermals. Single 8-pin connector.

 

[Shivansps]

@Shivansps

Also, you are talking from the perspective of a mom and pop miner, but the professional mining farms are probably going to matter way more when it comes to 2nd hand cards hitting the ebays of the world. I doubt that the professionals will want to chase those insignificant coins.

Professional mining farms have a considerable amount of investment on infraestructure that they dont want it to sit idle and are the ones that can afford to mine at a loss for the longest time because they are already sitting on a big pile of cash.

Its the small miners who are, mostly, at risk, specially if they cant afford to pay the electricity bill whiout having to sell crypto.

 

[maddie]

Professional mining farms have a considerable amount of investment on infraestructure that they dont want it to sit idle and are the ones that can afford to mine at a loss for the longest time because they are already sitting on a big pile of cash.

Its the small miners who are, mostly, at risk, specially if they cant afford to pay the electricity bill whiout having to sell crypto.

Isn't it cheaper/less costly to not mine than mine at a loss?

 

[fleshconsumed]

The PoW is dead. Long live the PoS!

Still not seeing prices cratering, but as I said before I don't expect that to happen until 1-2 months after PoW has ended. It's going to take time for the holdouts to realize how much less profitable mining alts is now and how much of a pain it is to keep switching coins to keep profitability up and it's going to take time for inventory to trickle down to used market. At this point though unless I can get a good 6800 (non XT) for $300 I'll probably just keep waiting till RDNA3. I was not a fan of my computers heating up my room, so lower power consumption of the new gen is always welcome for quality of life.

 

[Aapje]

Professional mining farms have a considerable amount of investment on infraestructure that they dont want it to sit idle and are the ones that can afford to mine at a loss for the longest time because they are already sitting on a big pile of cash.

That's not how it works. A company doesn't use equipment just to make sure that it doesn't remain idle*, but to make money. If doing a thing costs them money, then why do it? A bunch of factories have actually shut down due to the high energy prices and will start back up again if the prices go down again.

However, Proof of Stake won't go away, unlike the high energy prices, that may get better again. So why hang on to those depreciating video cards when there is no reasonable chance to profit from them again. By selling them, they can reuse the space for other business ventures.

* The exception is that some factories cannot just shut down their operations without causing enormous costs to restart it again. In that case they may choose to run at a loss for some time. However, that is definitely not true for mining farms.

 

[Aapje]

Still not seeing prices cratering, but as I said before I don't expect that to happen until 1-2 months after PoW has ended. It's going to take time for the holdouts to realize ...

Not even that. All those big farms that have been mining up to the merge in China and the like can't just sell those cards to consumers tomorrow. The bios needs to be flashed, the rigs needs to be taken apart and the cards packaged. Then they need to find a wholesaler, organize the shipping and actually ship the things to the US/EU. Then the wholesaler needs to either create ebay listings or find another intermediary to sell to, who then sells to consumers.

Even if they start right away, it will easily take weeks for those cards to show up on the second hand consumer market.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Not even that. All those big farms that have been mining up to the merge in China and the like can't just sell those cards to consumers tomorrow. The bios needs to be flashed, the rigs needs to be taken apart and the cards packaged. Then they need to find a wholesaler, organize the shipping and actually ship the things to the US/EU. Then the wholesaler needs to either create ebay listings or find another intermediary to sell to, who then sells to consumers.

Even if they start right away, it will easily takes weeks for those cards to show up on the second hand consumer market.

- Small bit because I don't think anyone really cares but sending through a wholeseller "launders" the cards too. Can be listed as "barely used" and "never mined" or "bought 2 months ago" and still be on the up and up.

I tell everyone that will listen to simply assume every single card you see being sold used as been mined to hell and back before you put down your simoleons.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Fan replacement on graphics cards is soon going to keep many tech shops busy

 

[igor_kavinski]

Even if they start right away, it will easily takes weeks for those cards to show up on the second hand consumer market.

It can be done pretty quickly. You are forgetting that the Chinese have no issue getting their kids to work

 

[GodisanAtheist]

It can be done pretty quickly. You are forgetting that the Chinese have no issue getting their kids to work

- Those little fingers better not lose grip on some of those chonker cards or its an ass whupping

 

[VirtualLarry]

I tell everyone that will listen to simply assume every single card you see being sold used as been mined to hell and back before you put down your simoleons.

Yup!

 

[amenx]

Since 3q 2020 when Ampere was released followed by RDNA2, around 95 million GPUs were sold. Not sure what went to miners vs gamers, but if were to assume 20% went to miners, thats close to 20 mil cards they have to dispense of before their values begin to seriously deteriorate.

Der Grafikkarten-Markt im Cryptomining-Hype 2020-2022 | 3DCenter.org

Sonntag, 11. September 2022 / von Leonidas Nach Vorlage der Zahlen für den Grafikkarten-Markt im zweiten Quartal 2022 lohnt nunmehr eine etwas breitere Betrachtung zum Wohl & Wehe des Grafikkarten-Markts während des

www-3dcenter-org.translate.goog

 

[mastertech01]

interesting, my Eth transaction has yet to go through. Taking a bit longer then normal.

It has been about 2 hours.


Is it wrong to hope Eth broke?

Maybe its like a run on the bank. Closed until further notice to prevent financial collapse.

 

[Leeea]

Maybe its like a run on the bank. Closed until further notice to prevent financial collapse.

-chuckles-

My transaction did go through eventually. Converted it to USD and it is on the way to my checking account now.


I know the real money is in speculation, but cryptospeculation is so far outside of my competency that I do not even know the rules.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Yeah but miners are moving to other coins now. As i said a few months back, overall this changes nothing, its going to be a carnage of hashrates and difficulty swings on the other coins while miners change from one crypto to the other, for a while, then things will settle down, the next "go to" coin to be mined will be know and it will be bussiness as usual.

The key here is pre-mining before that happens, this is why miners will be mining even at a loss until the dust settles down. For example ive been mining RVN with a half dead RX 570 4GB gpu for a year, the amount of coins that GPU made is way more than what i could make now even if i tried.

You vastly overestimate the valuation of those other projects. Adding hashrate won't magically make them worth more or improve overall rewards. Investor money has to follow for prices to increase enough for all that hashrate to matter.

Not even that. All those big farms that have been mining up to the merge in China

Pretty sure the largest farms got moved out of China some time ago.

 

[SPBHM]

I see a flood of cheap RX 580s
this is going to get ugly for cheaper graphics cards, I'm sure it's ok for the RTX 4000s if they are indeed much faster.

 

[moonbogg]

Rumor has it Nvidia is going to milk next gen so hard it will make Kepler look good. Looks like they will rebrand the 4070 as a 4080 12GB and just charge $700+ for it because hey, why not? Seems kind of funny how everyone says Nvidia has a ton of new wafers to sell, so they just go for a huge price hike with everything costing between $1000-$2000 from the 4080 16GB and up. Without mining, is there really a big market for $1500+ GPUs?

 

[kondziowy]

I'm seeing a slow... painful... price descent. Time to buy Nintendo Wii ?

 

[SMOGZINN]

Isn't it cheaper/less costly to not mine than mine at a loss?

That's not how it works. A company doesn't use equipment just to make sure that it doesn't remain idle*, but to make money. If doing a thing costs them money, then why do it?

Both of you are thinking about crypto mining as producing a product to be sold. That is not what crypto mining is. They are not producing a product, they are buying lottery tickets. My guess is that right now those giant warehouses of GPU's are being converted to mine a dozen different coins in the hope that one or more of them shoots up in value and the nearly worthless coins they mined today will be worth billions tomorrow. And it might just happen. The key thing to remember is that it does not have to be a stable market, all that has to happen is for one of the coins that they have hundreds or thousands of to suddenly increase in price for a few hours. Then everyone tries to sell all of that coin as fast as possible, which causes that coin's value to crash, and they move on to the next one.

The entire thing will become a high speed pyramid scheme. The thing about pyramid scheme's is that there is always plenty of suckers who think they will be the guy on top.

Without mining, is there really a big market for $1500+ GPUs?

The last two years have taught us that plenty of gamers will pay truly stupid prices for a new GPU. My guess is that Nvidia is about to test that market. If they don't sell they can always lower their prices to reasonable amounts around Black Friday.
And hay then they get to have huge sales and we will all be like 'What a deal! 30% off a 4080' buy buy buy!

 

[DrMrLordX]

My guess is that right now those giant warehouses of GPU's are being converted to mine a dozen different coins in the hope that one or more of them shoots up in value and the nearly worthless coins they mined today will be worth billions tomorrow.

Large operations can't afford to mine & hold. Power costs money. Most miners dump, or play out their supplies according to a plan. With power costs high and returns low, most hardware has to be taken offline without an external source of funding.