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Android Captures 80% Of Smartphone Market In Q2
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BladeVenom
Lifer
Nokia is losing money on their Windows phones, and they are the only ones making Windows phones in any quantity. As soon as Nokia's board comes to it's senses and fires Elop, and comes out with a Android phone, it's over for Windows. Given a choice between Android or Windows on a Nokia phone, Nokia fans are going to go with Android, just like what's happened with every company who makes both.
Did you see the latest Nokia phone ad? They don't show or even mention Windows. So at least their advertising agency knows what the problem is.
ultimatebob
Lifer
If Kia started building luxury cars that were both bigger, faster and still cheaper than BMW did, yes.
Actually, it already seems to be happening in the car world. Companies like Kia and Hyundai are building full size luxury sedans now, while BMW is expanding their MINI product lineup to increase their mainstream auto sales.
Honestly, I'm amazed that it took Apple this long to release a low cost version of the iPhone for prepaid carriers and emerging markets. Samsung really beat them to the punch on this one.
pantsaregood
Senior member
What "latest Nokia phone ad?" There are a load of them, and most of them either prominently focus on the OS or the camera.
Nokia's board "coming to their senses" is also about the worst thing the company could do. Nokia's position has improved significantly from when their partnership with Microsoft was announced. Furthermore, they have an exclusivity arrangement in place with Microsoft - breaching that would surely lead to pretty severe financial and legal repercussions.
Even if those problems weren't presenting themselves, Nokia producing an Android device wouldn't accomplish much. Look at HTC: they're performing pretty comparably to Nokia, and they're invested in both ecosystems. Nokia simply lacks room to break into the Android market.
Why don't you stop trying to rationalize and just admit that you hate Microsoft and Windows Phone? The facts that Nokia's financial position is improving and that Windows Phone is increasing in market share are indisputable.
BladeVenom
Lifer
The advertisement for the 925 which came out 5 days ago, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqfEE_X5cpQ That's their new highly promoted ad, over a million views.
When they announced their partnership, they were the #1 smartphone manufacturer in the world. Their market share was greater than Apple's and Samsung's.
How can you call that an improvement?
How long does the contract last and what are the penalties then? Do you even know?
HTC also makes Windows phones, their Android phones sells more. Even Samsung makes Windows phones. It seems everyone who makes both a Windows and an Android phone, sells more Android phones. Why would that not apply to Nokia?
They are still losing lots of money. So they didn't do as bad this quarter as last quarter, and you want to call that an improvement. They were hugely profitable before the Windows deal. I don't think they ever lost money before the Windows deal.
Windows had a 12.3% market share in 2008. In 2012 Windows has a 2.5% market share.
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openwheel
Platinum Member
They are. I am picking up a 187 HP 320i in Munich soon which is cheaper than some Kias
Part of Apples success depended on the premium feel of the brand. Once they go cheap with 5C I fear they would lose market share to android or windows mobile that build premium products.
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Commodus
Diamond Member
When they announced their partnership, they were the #1 smartphone manufacturer in the world. Their market share was greater than Apple's and Samsung's.
How can you call that an improvement?
There's a significant flaw with this argument, however: it assumes that Nokia's switch to Windows Phone began or accelerated the company's decline in market share. As if Nokia would have been better off sticking with Symbian.
The truth is that Nokia's market share plateaued in spring 2007 -- coincidentally, right around when the original iPhone launched. The pre-Elop management was determined to ride Symbian into the ground, and there's a real chance that Nokia would actually be worse off than it is now.
I wonder what would have happened if Nokia had gone with Android. There is a chance it would have fared better, although I'm not sure that would be healthy for the industry as a whole. It would have likely sounded the death knell for Windows Phone. After all, HTC, Samsung and their kind still treat Windows Phone as a side project (at best). We don't need any more of a smartphone monoculture than has already emerged so far.
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That's not really a good comparison. People are discussing Android v iOS in terms of hardware sales and profit, but that's really just short-term thinking.
Let's forget the fact that Apple's share of smartphone profits has dropped steadily from 9x% to now (as of last quarter) being almost at parity with Samsung.
What this has always been about for Google is a land-grab. They're after eyeballs and users. They're working on building the strongest software (app) ecosystem possible for their platform. The last study done (posted in this forum) shows that Android is almost at parity with Apple in terms of popular app availability/quality (96%), a dramatic shift from two years ago. That is largely due to developers realizing that publishing Android applications opens the floodgate to 8 out of 10 smartphones shipped worldwide per quarter.
Without the land grab, there is no developer support. Without developer support, there are no eyeballs. This is why Windows Phone is stuck in a rut, despite a slick OS and quality hardware. Microsoft need to either buy app development outright, or flood the market with enough cheap phones to attract developers through market share. If they fully market synergies with Windows desktop and XBOX, they might also attract users/apps in that way.
In closing, Google's strategy has never been about hardware profits. Do you really think anyone would spend $12 billion on Motorola to make money on handsets? Their strategy is to lock as many users (low/mid/high -end) into their ecosystem as early as possible, profits be damned. Those users will translate into accounts that use Google services, like search, e-mail, maps, and will download apps/music/movies/books through Google Play. They don't want to sell cars, they want to run the toll bridge.
Apple is doing a great job selling cars and running the toll bridge. But the writing is on the wall. The trend line hasn't deviated much for Android or Apple, one steadily rising and the other steadily declining. Apple sold more iPhones last quarter YOY, but their profits dropped by nearly $2 billion YOY. This makes absolute sense if you realize that smartphones are now a commodity, and Android/iOS are now encroaching in each other's territory (Android having more premium devices, while Apple is set to release a lower end device).
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Commodus
Diamond Member
I'd be careful about that $2 billion differential: Apple launched a new iPad last spring and was relatively busy in 2012, but it was frank in warning that 2013 was very backloaded. That doesn't necessarily mean everything will be hunky-dory in the next few months -- just that a one-time (at least, it looks to be one-time) shift in product schedules can exaggerate any perceived problems.
pantsaregood
Senior member
There's a significant flaw with this argument, however: it assumes that Nokia's switch to Windows Phone began or accelerated the company's decline in market share. As if Nokia would have been better off sticking with Symbian.
The truth is that Nokia's market share plateaued in spring 2007 -- coincidentally, right around when the original iPhone launched. The pre-Elop management was determined to ride Symbian into the ground, and there's a real chance that Nokia would actually be worse off than it is now.
I wonder what would have happened if Nokia had gone with Android. There is a chance it would have fared better, although I'm not sure that would be healthy for the industry as a whole. It would have likely sounded the death knell for Windows Phone. After all, HTC, Samsung and their kind still treat Windows Phone as a side project (at best). We don't need any more of a smartphone monoculture than has already emerged so far.
This. Exactly this. Without Nokia embracing Windows Phone, I think the platform would be in a far worse place than it is today. I also feel Nokia would be in a worse place than they are today.
There are loads of Android OEMs, but most of them aren't particularly profitable. HTC is one of the more recognized OEMs (and had an early foot in the Android market) and they aren't performing particularly well. The Android market is oversaturated, and Nokia would be hitting the same block as HTC, only worse.
Daniel Jones
Member
Watching this from last few years that by this time Android looks like the king but as Apple releases iPhone successor they heads the stats.
ControlD
Diamond Member
I've read that numerous times and I am still wondering what it says.
Oyeve
Lifer
Dude, I haven't had my coffee yet but, what?
ITHURTSWHENIP
Senior member
HTC is actually still profitable. But their downward slide has little to do with Android and everything to do with zero marketing from HTC. As for the rest of the OEMs, not sure where you got your information but its not true
http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2013/07/idc-smartphones-q2-2013.jpg
LG went from 5,8 million last year to 12,1 million this quarter. Lenovo 4,9 to 11,3 million, ZTE 6,4 million to 10,1. Sony just announced 9,6 million shipments this quarter compared to last years 7,4 million. All of these OEMs are selling more smartphones than Nokia despite the supposed tougher competition in the Android world
Microsofts snail pace in the mobile market is hurting Nokia. Even Nokia is starting to realize it based on the recent chatter by the marketing VP. Its pretty insane that they had to basically reverse engineer the Snapdragon S4 chip in order to make the Lumia 1020
I don't think Apple cares about market share as much as they do about their profits. They were brought back from the dead when Jobs came back and I think that they're more afraid of that near death experience than anything else. Which is why they have created such a big nest egg.
Apple seemed perfectly fine with very little market share in the PC market. The same thing will happen to Apple in the smartphone market.
Apple seemed perfectly fine with very little market share in the PC market. The same thing will happen to Apple in the smartphone market.
openwheel
Platinum Member
well said.
There are two types of profit in this game. Short term hardware sales profit, and long term user ecosystem profit. Both are directly affected by market share.
And as ridiculous as it sounds, Apple's "image" and their share price has been built on an unsustainable legacy of growth that Steve Jobs provided the company through the last decade. There is no way Apple can sustain that momentum going forward, and while they'll still net billions in profit, Wall Street will punish them for anything short of unrealistic gains every quarter.
Their drop in share price from $700 to $400 is part of a correction that needed to happen as the smartphone/tablet market got commoditized. Tablet sales are slowing. Apple's margins are dropping. Their share of the smartphone and tablet market is dropping. I think their stock will hover around $400-$500 per share as long as they keep making money, but the analysts who were predicting $1000 per share were foolhardy (and under the impression that the Jobs era would continue past his death).
Jobs created new markets for Apple in PMPs, smartphones and tablets. Cook might only have one new market in the pipeline, a television, but it's sketchy so far. The iWatch will be a big hit, but ultimately it's an accessory to the iPhone, not a game-changer.
jiffylube1024
Diamond Member
Well said, jpeyton.
We can see the effect of the erosion of Apple's marketshare happening even more dramatically in the tablet space than in the phone space, and I'd argue Apple has a more pronounced advantage in quality tablet apps over android (though like with the phone it's narrowing).
Android tablet sales almost tripled Q2 2012 to Q2 2013, and grew tablet market share to > 60% of the tablet marketspace : http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/08/...slow-apples-tablet-and-smartphone-marketshare
In that same time Apple's tablet sales actually shrank and their market share has plummeted dramatically from 60% to 32%. That's a dramatic year-over-year trend.
Yes, of course Apple makes a ton more dough on each tablet sale over just about any Android one, but if this continues apple will be selling to only 10-20% of the market, just like in the pc space. As you point out, their reputation from circa 2007 to around the end of 2011 was unparalleled growth, something which cannot continue if their market share keeps shrinking.
Plus in the tablet space, apple actually faces some competition from above - something they're not used to in any market, with respect to to Windows 8 Pro tablets. Yes W8 pro tablets only took 4% of the market, and I feel that high end, $700+ tablets are a niche right now, but it's something else to watch out for.
We can see the effect of the erosion of Apple's marketshare happening even more dramatically in the tablet space than in the phone space, and I'd argue Apple has a more pronounced advantage in quality tablet apps over android (though like with the phone it's narrowing).
Android tablet sales almost tripled Q2 2012 to Q2 2013, and grew tablet market share to > 60% of the tablet marketspace : http://ca.ign.com/articles/2013/08/...slow-apples-tablet-and-smartphone-marketshare
In that same time Apple's tablet sales actually shrank and their market share has plummeted dramatically from 60% to 32%. That's a dramatic year-over-year trend.
Yes, of course Apple makes a ton more dough on each tablet sale over just about any Android one, but if this continues apple will be selling to only 10-20% of the market, just like in the pc space. As you point out, their reputation from circa 2007 to around the end of 2011 was unparalleled growth, something which cannot continue if their market share keeps shrinking.
Plus in the tablet space, apple actually faces some competition from above - something they're not used to in any market, with respect to to Windows 8 Pro tablets. Yes W8 pro tablets only took 4% of the market, and I feel that high end, $700+ tablets are a niche right now, but it's something else to watch out for.
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What I'm saying is that it doesn't matter if Apple's market share dwindles. That happened to them in the PC market and it'll happen again in the smartphone market. As far as I know, HP and Dell is sharing profit scraps due to slim margins.
Apple's share price is based on them changing the tech world and its not just Apple that can't sustain that momentum, no company can. A company would be lucky to have 1 game changer, let alone 3.
iPod was in 2001, iPhone 2007, iPad in 2010. I wonder where the uproars were of no innovation in the in between years.
jiffylube1024
Diamond Member
^I think jpeyton was mostly addressing the 'cheezys' of this thread, not you, who provided us with such wisdom as:
He is wrong, the numbers do mean something. You're right, MrX8503, though in that Apple's marketshare will dwindle, but ultimately they will keep the piece they want - the high end.
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I think that, other than an obviously game-changing new product, right now Apple has several significant needs in its existing markets, and it's doing a good job in addressing some of them, and a bad job in others.
Just a few of Apple's needs, IMO:
lower-end iPhone to sell to China, 3rd world, non-contract customers
-Apple is purportedly releasing the iPhone 5C. Customers don't want to be stuck with last-gen hardware, but they have been willing to make that sacrifice to get into the Apple phone ecosystem. An iPhone 5C would be a boon for non-contract buyers.
Retina display iPad mini and a thinner, lighter iPad
-A thinner iPad has been in the works for half a year now, according to rumors. We saw leaks of thinner glass panels earlier in the year. I think the iPad mini with retina is even more desperately needed: devices like the Nexus 7 make the iPad mini seem hopelessly last-gen.
Updated notebook like with Haswell across the board, more affordable Macbooks
Haswell is on the Air, and hopefully will be on other devices by Christmas. Apple has actually been cutting the price of the Macbook Air, Pro and Retina Macbook Pro in the past couple of years. Yes, the prices have been coming down at typically glacial Apple rates, but think that for $999/$1099 now you can get a Macbook Air, which is an awesome ultraportable laptop; a few years ago that kind of money got you an all-plastic Macbook.
He is wrong, the numbers do mean something. You're right, MrX8503, though in that Apple's marketshare will dwindle, but ultimately they will keep the piece they want - the high end.
----------
I think that, other than an obviously game-changing new product, right now Apple has several significant needs in its existing markets, and it's doing a good job in addressing some of them, and a bad job in others.
Just a few of Apple's needs, IMO:
lower-end iPhone to sell to China, 3rd world, non-contract customers
-Apple is purportedly releasing the iPhone 5C. Customers don't want to be stuck with last-gen hardware, but they have been willing to make that sacrifice to get into the Apple phone ecosystem. An iPhone 5C would be a boon for non-contract buyers.
Retina display iPad mini and a thinner, lighter iPad
-A thinner iPad has been in the works for half a year now, according to rumors. We saw leaks of thinner glass panels earlier in the year. I think the iPad mini with retina is even more desperately needed: devices like the Nexus 7 make the iPad mini seem hopelessly last-gen.
Updated notebook like with Haswell across the board, more affordable Macbooks
Haswell is on the Air, and hopefully will be on other devices by Christmas. Apple has actually been cutting the price of the Macbook Air, Pro and Retina Macbook Pro in the past couple of years. Yes, the prices have been coming down at typically glacial Apple rates, but think that for $999/$1099 now you can get a Macbook Air, which is an awesome ultraportable laptop; a few years ago that kind of money got you an all-plastic Macbook.
Of course they are going to update to Haswell across the board, why wouldn't they?
And the 11" MacBook Air has been $999 since its introduction in late 2010, so it's already been a few years.
They've been bringing down the price of the rMBPs because (my theory, but it's pretty obvious) they are going to phase out the classic MBPs, and they want the Retina machines in the same price slots (roughly). So they'll have the MacBook Airs on the 'low' end, and the rMBPs on the high end. They don't really need to reduce the price of their laptops, they still sell well, and have held steady at a $999 floor for about 5 years or so.
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