Android As We Know It Will Die In The Next Two Years

[ultimatebob]

Yup, they are all running to Android

Notice iPad by itself generates more than 2x the revenue of the entire Android ecosystem. No reason for devs to leave iOS. People who get $0 phones are not likely to buy apps.

In other words, people dumb/lazy enough to pay retail price for their phones by buying them at a brick and mortar store instead of ordering them online tend to buy Apple products. Well, there's something to be proud of, I guess.

Take a look at Amazon.com and Newegg, and see what the top sellers are on those sites...

 

[alent1234]

In other words, people dumb/lazy enough to pay retail price for their phones by buying them at a brick and mortar store instead of ordering them online tend to buy Apple products. Well, there's something to be proud of, I guess.

Take a look at Amazon.com and Newegg, and see what the top sellers are on those sites...

those penny deals are only for new customers on a carrier. kind of sucks for the 40% of smartphone users on a family plan

iphone is the same price everywhere and no matter if you're a current customer on a carrier

 

[shortylickens]

In other words, people dumb/lazy enough to pay retail price for their phones by buying them at a brick and mortar store instead of ordering them online tend to buy Apple products. Well, there's something to be proud of, I guess.

Take a look at Amazon.com and Newegg, and see what the top sellers are on those sites...

Any chance you could be slightly less insulting? The technical forums arent for fights and harassment.

 

[Dulanic]

I have never seen a thread filled with more bullshit than this one. That applies to all sides of this everlasting fucking stupid ass argument. This forum has been overrun with children. People act like the other side raped their children.

 

[shortylickens]

I have never seen a thread filled with more bullshit than this one. That applies to all sides of this everlasting fucking stupid ass argument. This forum has been overrun with children. People act like the other side raped their children.

Calm down buddy. If you know its true, just dont post in them.

 

[Aikouka]

Iphones are a dying breed, they are great for the Apple lovers that don't care about technology, software or build quality (hold it wrong and you lose reception, talk about horrible build quality, the brain dead person who thought that would be a good idea should have been fired when he came up with it) but only the brand name.

Technology? Pretty sure Apple still has the fastest all-around SoC on the market. The CPU is pretty average; however, the GPU is still a monster compared to all other SoCs.

Software? The usual comment is that iOS and WP7 are much smoother than Android. Note that both of these mobile operating systems are tailored to specific hardware.

Build Quality? Attenuation was an issue with the original iPhone 4 (AT&T, not Verizon) and has been fairly rectified in the Verizon iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S (given the 4S uses the same antenna setup as in the Verizon iPhone 4).

Once Droid passes Apple's number of apps this quarter, it will solidify its death grip as more and more devs defect from Apple.

Which developers have openly stopped programming for iOS devices?

Can you explain to me what "post-PC" even means? What definition of Personal Computer are we using?

To me Laptops, desktops, tablets, and smartphones. Different devices and no one is a replacement for the other.

The idea of a "Post-PC era" is that people are doing what they need to do on a mobile device rather than having to get on a PC. This isn't to say that these mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, etc.) are a 100% replacement for traditional desktops and laptops, because they're not. However, the idea is that for some users that don't do terribly complex tasks (Facebook, e-mail, web browsing, etc.), the mobile device functions perfectly fine for them.

 

[zinfamous]

It just underscores how fragile Android's position is right now. One phone launched and it sucked the air right out of Android.

Android's biggest threat this year is not Apple, it's Microsoft. Microsoft is going to start moneyhatting carriers to push WP7 devices over Android while at the same time making it more expensive for them to go with Android over WP7 via licensing fees.

Fast-forward to Q3 2012 with Android going against the iPhone 5 and WP7 devices and they stand to drop below 33% marketshare in the US.

You make a lot fo assumptions for Q3 2012, considering that everyone and their mother assumed that Q2 2011 would bring iPhone 5--which didn't happen until Q4 and even then, it wasn't iPhone 5. seeing something new from them only half a year later is a bit ambitious, considering their current cycles.


The one thing that Apple truly has going for it is brand recognition: iPhone = Q-tip. No matter what smartphone you are carrying, the average consumer is going to simplify it by calling it an iPhone. It's the quick, understood nomenclature for "something better than a phone."

Only now, 2+ years out, are there Android devices that are equal, and sometimes better devices to iPhone. Apple has had that dominance for so long. The only problem I see with Android is that despite their precipitous rise to market share, they still have a long history of scattered user experience. Many who tried to adopt early on are left with a bad taste, and will likely never experience the current state of Android and their often superior devices.

This is indeed something that Apple does very well--protect their product and their branding with extreme prejudice to insure that the user experience is nothing shy of what they want it to be.

 

[MaxFusion16]

In other words, people dumb/lazy enough to pay retail price for their phones by buying them at a brick and mortar store instead of ordering them online tend to buy Apple products. Well, there's something to be proud of, I guess.

Take a look at Amazon.com and Newegg, and see what the top sellers are on those sites...

neither amazon nor newegg carries iphones on contract.......so your point is android's the top seller at amazon and newegg because iphones are not available? and when given the choice in a store environment, consumers pick iphones over android?

brilliant!

iPhone 4S is the top seller for sprint, verizon and AT&T
http://www.bgr.com/2012/01/06/iphone-4s-remains-best-seller-at-top-three-carriers-in-december/

 

[MrX8503]

Android has always been on the rise and with the 4S release, it leveled the playing field. I don't see 2012 being much different. Should be an interesting year with a supposedly new iPhone and quad cores being commonplace.

In other words, people dumb/lazy enough to pay retail price for their phones by buying them at a brick and mortar store instead of ordering them online tend to buy Apple products. Well, there's something to be proud of, I guess.

Take a look at Amazon.com and Newegg, and see what the top sellers are on those sites...

So when Apple is successful, people are dumb, lazy, brainwashed, idiots, etc. The iPhone is a solid device and people obviously want it. I don't think Amazon and Newegg are very good indicators of sales, but just so you know....the iPhone 4S/4/3GS are the top 3 selling smartphones.

 

[pwnagesarus]

They been out for years.

Orly?

The ones I have seen all have horizontal keypads. I'll start searching again.

 

[Red Storm]

Considering that one of Android's advantages is in having a large variety of handsets to choose from, it's a no brainer that Apple would have the highest selling individual units. You either get one of the few iPhone models or you don't get iOS, it's that simple (talking about phones).

Neither strategy is the "correct" one. They both have their own advantages and disadvantages. As always, it's a matter of personal opinion.

 

[ponyo]

It's my opinion with ICS, Android has finally caught up and surpassed iOS as the better mobile OS. But it's not so much better and amazing that it's going to convert many iOS fans. But I think it's good enough to keep current Android fans from defecting and will definitely bring in new users. Google did an amazing job with ICS and I think most iOS users would agree once they try it.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Android is in no way a better OS than iOS. Not even close when it comes to stability, performance, and overall spit-n-polish.

 

[Red Storm]

Android is in no way a better OS than iOS. Not even close when it comes to stability, performance, and overall spit-n-polish.

In your not so humble opinion?

They're both good mobile OSes. They both serve the average customer quite well, and they both offer us geeks different things that we like.

 

[shortylickens]

Orly?

The ones I have seen all have horizontal keypads. I'll start searching again.

http://www.phonescoop.com/phones/manufacturer.php?m=108

 

[Markbnj]

Android is in no way a better OS than iOS. Not even close when it comes to stability, performance, and overall spit-n-polish.

But Android is a _way_ more accessible technology stack for developers. Not a small thing. I have no idea how this market is going to shake out, but when I think about it:

iOS development == buy a Mac, buy an iWhatever, join Apple Developer program, learn Objective-C, learn XCode, etc.

Android development == buy any computer, buy an Android device or use emulator initially, join Google developer program, learn Java, learn Eclipse (or any of a bunch of other tools).

I've written for both platforms, and iOS/Objective-C/XCode was a much steeper learning curve, not to mention a much more restrictive environment, and much more expensive to get set up for. I have to think that will have some impact over time.

 

[Mopetar]

The point regarding Amazon really only applies to tablets as this point. Until they release a phone, I can't see it having a large impact on Android overall. At best (or worst depending on your point of view) it just means that Google Android isn't a player in the tablet space. If Amazon is successful, they may eventually start having third parties design and develop hardware for them. It probably won't be the open free-for-all that we see right now, but there could easily be an Amazon Kindle Fire 10" that's made by Samsung, and an Amazon Kindle Fire 7" that's made by HTC. Even if Amazon wants to do most of it in-house, if they ever want to get into the phone business, they might need to throw the handset manufacturers a bone.

Also, even if Android continues to splinter, I still believe that many carriers will continue to ask for Android phones, simply because they can customize it more to their own likings. Apple doesn't let them make any changes, and Microsoft is either the same or allows at best minor changes.

The carriers don't want to become dumb pipes so as long as there're people who want to buy Android phones the carriers will continue to make them. Device manufacturers likely have a similar point of view as from their perspective they need to be able to add value to the product in order to compete and one of the ways is through bundled apps or interface changes.

The comments about HTLM 5 are fairly spot on, and I can't help but think that it's a good thing for everyone in the long run. Not everything needs a native app and web apps mean that developers don't need to deal with the hassle of app store policies, etc. and can focus on getting their project out to people without jumping through hoops.

 

[dlock13]

Android is in no way a better OS than iOS. Not even close when it comes to stability, performance, and overall spit-n-polish.

In your not so humble opinion?

They're both good mobile OSes. They both serve the average customer quite well, and they both offer us geeks different things that we like.

I don't think it's really an opinion. iOS has had.. what 5 years to have their platform polished which brings along many speed enhancements by optimizing the heck out of the device which then offers more stability because of how well they know their programs that run with each other and work together.

Sure, you can get good performance on Android.... with a custom ROM/overclocking/blah blah blah.. or ICS on the Galaxy Nexus. ICS is the only iteration of Android that actually has any kind of polish or performance/stability enhancements.

Now, don't get me wrong. I use a Galaxy Nexus, and I'm glad I do because it's fixed every possible complaint I've ever had with an Android phone and then some. If they keep up the focus on making the OS more user-friendly and feature filled, then I'm all for Android.

Anyway, I didn't read the OP, but I read the bullet points. I think Google has some hard work ahead of them, but the ONLY company other than Google that can sell Android (I mean sell in the billions and millions without even flinching) is Amazon. They know how to polish a product. They know how to get you what you want. They're that good of a company. They're going to sell you their own version of Android which is why Google has some hard work because while you're trying to sell your OS on different phones with different skins with different options, people are flocking to the iPhone because they know it and it works. That's what's eventually going to happen with Amazon's variant of Android I feel.

 

[Markbnj]

The comments about HTLM 5 are fairly spot on, and I can't help but think that it's a good thing for everyone in the long run.

Two things about html5... how do we get access to lower-level device sensor's and functions? Will need an extension to the DOM or something to support that. Maybe even more importantly... how do you make money off html5 applications?

 

[Aikouka]

iOS development == buy a Mac, buy an iWhatever, join Apple Developer program, learn Objective-C, learn XCode, etc.

I've been keen on doing iOS development for awhile now, but the two highlighted points are what usually keep me from doing it. Maybe it's being a bit vain of a developer, but Objective-C just looks convoluted.

EDIT:

Although, the main problems with buying a Mac is just whether or not I keep with iOS development. It's about $600 for a MacMini, and that's a pretty steep entry price if you're just a hobbyist that may not even stick with it. I've gone the Hackintosh route before, but I found it to be way too easy to break. I kind of just gave up after breaking OS X for the third or so time.

 

[sgrinavi]

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/11/why-android-will-die/



I agree that android is dying, but fragmentation probably isn't the main reason.
I think it's rather OEM's inability to offer anything close to the iPhone, iPad in terms of build quality.

your thoughts?

I think the term build quality is overused and not understood. It's all about perception, smoke and mirrors.

 

[Red Storm]

I don't think it's really an opinion. iOS has had.. what 5 years to have their platform polished which brings along many speed enhancements by optimizing the heck out of the device which then offers more stability because of how well they know their programs that run with each other and work together.

Sure, you can get good performance on Android.... with a custom ROM/overclocking/blah blah blah.. or ICS on the Galaxy Nexus. ICS is the only iteration of Android that actually has any kind of polish or performance/stability enhancements.

Now, don't get me wrong. I use a Galaxy Nexus, and I'm glad I do because it's fixed every possible complaint I've ever had with an Android phone and then some. If they keep up the focus on making the OS more user-friendly and feature filled, then I'm all for Android.

Anyway, I didn't read the OP, but I read the bullet points. I think Google has some hard work ahead of them, but the ONLY company other than Google that can sell Android (I mean sell in the billions and millions without even flinching) is Amazon. They know how to polish a product. They know how to get you what you want. They're that good of a company. They're going to sell you their own version of Android which is why Google has some hard work because while you're trying to sell your OS on different phones with different skins with different options, people are flocking to the iPhone because they know it and it works. That's what's eventually going to happen with Amazon's variant of Android I feel.

ICS on the Galaxy Nexus is Google's target for what stock Android should be. It's been released, so that is what I use to compare to iOS. That's how any logical comparison is done, the most up to date software and hardware from both camps. For example, why would I compare the Nexus to the 3GS? That doesn't give you an accurate picture.

Again, I think the only people that seem to care about the different Android skins are the users like us who are already in the know. The average customers don't care and don't know. Samsung uses Touchwiz because they want to differentiate themselves from other Android makers, and they want to get their users more familiar with their way of doing things, so the next time that person goes to buy a phone, they'll have a preference for Touchwiz devices.

This is not the death of Android, far from it. If Google wanted to keep a strict lockdown on Android like Apple does with iOS then they wouldn't have made it open source. I'm not seeing the problem here, and I've been an Android user for a long time now.

I hear more about "Android fragmentation" and "Android is dying" from iOS users than anyone else.

 

[pm]

Ah. Another OT thread moved into MD&G. My favorite. :|

So, these to me always present a bit of a moderator challenge because they come over from OT with a whole lot of trolling, name-calling, and often a fair bit of profanity... and they are often fairly combustible, if not full-on incendiary.

So, I'll leave this thread alone for now. Starting after post #106 (mine), I would request that we shift to a more technical discussion of the points raised in the first post. If we think that the first post is complete rubbish and the thread is stupid, send me a private message and if there's a couple of you and you have a decent reason for why you think the thread is inane, I'll lock it.

Otherwise, we are here in MD&G now which is a technical forum, and there's a higher bar for posts in the technical forum (or a higher level of stodginess, depending on how you view it), so please move to a more technical discussion of the merits of the article, and less a discussion of the partisanship of the person who posted it and who are attacking or defending it.

Thanks
Moderator PM

 

[dwell]

You make a lot fo assumptions for Q3 2012, considering that everyone and their mother assumed that Q2 2011 would bring iPhone 5--which didn't happen until Q4 and even then, it wasn't iPhone 5. seeing something new from them only half a year later is a bit ambitious, considering their current cycles.

Q4 / October 2012 the iPhone 5 will be released.

Tim Cook is a financial genius. Everyone was claiming not launching the iPhone 5 in 2011 was going to be a disaster. Turns out it smashed every record the previous iPhone models set. Next Apple comes back a year later and releases the iPhone 5 proper and smashes the 4S's records. iPad 3 in March as well.

 

[QueBert]

Android has always been on the rise and with the 4S release, it leveled the playing field. I don't see 2012 being much different. Should be an interesting year with a supposedly new iPhone and quad cores being commonplace.



So when Apple is successful, people are dumb, lazy, brainwashed, idiots, etc. The iPhone is a solid device and people obviously want it. I don't think Amazon and Newegg are very good indicators of sales, but just so you know....the iPhone 4S/4/3GS are the top 3 selling smartphones.

BINGO! Where I'd bet money over half the people who buy Android phones have no idea what Android is. They walk into Verizon and see a phone on demo and go "ohh I want that!" Android itself isn't all that popular imho, it's just there are so many devices running it of course when Joe Blow walks into the Verizon store and see's a dozen different Android phones on display he's probably going to wind up buying one.