Android As We Know It Will Die In The Next Two Years

[Mopetar]

Two things about html5... how do we get access to lower-level device sensor's and functions? Will need an extension to the DOM or something to support that.

Yes. The article points this out, but also indicates if HTML 5 becomes more prevalent, it will just speed up the process of getting that functionality added. There are a lot of things that for whatever reason work better as a native application, but there are plenty of things that don't need to be native applications at all.

Maybe even more importantly... how do you make money off html5 applications?

Paid subscriptions or advertising. Considering that a lot of Android apps already make their money through advertising, this doesn't change much for a lot of developers.

 

[zinfamous]

BINGO! Where I'd bet money over half the people who buy Android phones have no idea what Android is. They walk into Verizon and see a phone on demo and go "ohh I want that!" Android itself isn't all that popular imho, it's just there are so many devices running it of course when Joe Blow walks into the Verizon store and see's a dozen different Android phones on display he's probably going to wind up buying one.

true. and 98% of the people who buy an iPhone/iPad have no idea what iOS is.

for the ave customer, it isn't really "Android," anything that isn't an iPhone, if they can make that distinction, is a "Droid." Yet more marketing fail/win (depending on whose perspective you want to take)

 

[Mopetar]

BINGO! Where I'd bet money over half the people who buy Android phones have no idea what Android is. They walk into Verizon and see a phone on demo and go "ohh I want that!" Android itself isn't all that popular imho, it's just there are so many devices running it of course when Joe Blow walks into the Verizon store and see's a dozen different Android phones on display he's probably going to wind up buying one.

I almost think that this was more or less true in the PC era as well. People knew what Windows was, but they usually talked about buying a Dell, HP, etc. Even before smartphone purchases became widespread, most people I knew generally tended to stay loyal to the hardware manufacturers.

I think there's also a big tendency for people to go after free phones. The 3GS is the third best selling phone in the US right now, even though it's more than 2 years old, simply because it's free with contract. Never mind that it's over two years the $200 difference between a free phone and a new premium device amounts to under than 10% of the total amount a person will pay, for whatever reason people will flock to free even though it's not even close to worthwhile in my opinion.

There are also a lot of other factors in play as well. For instance, the "best" Android phone is probably only the "best" for a few months before something better replaces it whereas any iPhone that comes out isn't going to be replaced for about a year.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I think forking ICS by manufacturers will become pretty common, especially if the Amazon app store continues to do well.

 

[jpiniero]

I think forking ICS by manufacturers will become pretty common, especially if the Amazon app store continues to do well.

Agree, which is why I think Google will close Android.

 

[dwell]

I think forking ICS by manufacturers will become pretty common, especially if the Amazon app store continues to do well.

My guess is Samsung will fork ICS and open their own app store like Amazon. Google will try and vertically integrate with Motorola. The only reason it has not happened yet is because there are long term contracts in place.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Samsung is the most successful manufacturer using Android, the question is, with that kind of leverage over Google, what will they do?

They also have BADA being slowly refined in Europe, not ready for prime time in the states yet, but a bit more polish, and it will be.

 

[kyrax12]

I would say wait till Q1 of 2012 to see where Android stands in the overall smartphone market share.

If it is below iOS then Android is in trouble.

 

[Bryf50]

Samsung is the most successful manufacturer using Android, the question is, with that kind of leverage over Google, what will they do?

They also have BADA being slowly refined in Europe, not ready for prime time in the states yet, but a bit more polish, and it will be.

BADA is a featurephone os, not a replacement for android.

I would say wait till Q1 of 2012 to see where Android stands in the overall smartphone market share.

If it is below iOS then Android is in trouble.

Android is already ahead of iOS in marketshare.

BINGO! Where I'd bet money over half the people who buy Android phones have no idea what Android is. They walk into Verizon and see a phone on demo and go "ohh I want that!" Android itself isn't all that popular imho, it's just there are so many devices running it of course when Joe Blow walks into the Verizon store and see's a dozen different Android phones on display he's probably going to wind up buying one.

I know comparatively the "enthusiasts" represent a small market but they/we have a huge effect on what the masses buy as a whole. Literally every relative in my family has asked me what phone to buy at some point or another.

 

[ponyo]

My guess is Samsung will fork ICS and open their own app store like Amazon. Google will try and vertically integrate with Motorola. The only reason it has not happened yet is because there are long term contracts in place.

Samsung already has their own Android app store. http://www.samsungapps.com/

Samsung is #1 Android phone vendor. They're making nice pile of money from selling the hardware. And money has always been in the hardware in this business. Apple knows this. Samsung doesn't need to fork ICS or Android. They have Touchwiz. As long as Samsung keeps using cutting edge tech for their Touchwiz Android phones, people will buy.

I expect Google to integrate Google TV stuff to Motorola top set boxes. As for rest of Motorola, I expect Google to leave them alone.

 

[MaxFusion16]

I think forking ICS by manufacturers will become pretty common, especially if the Amazon app store continues to do well.

I honestly think google didn't see that coming, they probably never thought that somebody might create an entire separate app market; but amazon just took their OS and ran with it, completely bypassing google's ecosystem, reaping all the benefits of the free OS, while not generating any revenue streams for google, and further fragmenting the OS.

google's probably pissing themselves and desperately trying to clamp down on this in the future.

 

[dwell]

I know comparability the "enthusiasts" represent a small market but they/we have a huge effect on what the masses buy as a whole. Literally every relative in my family has asked me what phone to buy at some point or another.

People like to think that. Word of mouth might sell a dozen phones over time but one commercial sells thousands in 30 seconds or less.

 

[kyrax12]

Android is already ahead of iOS in marketshare.

iOS is at 43% while Android is at 47%.

iOS is catching up at a very fast rate.

 

[Pliablemoose]

BADA is a featurephone os, not a replacement for android.

Really? Seems to have a lot of features

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ym8sV1A1dr0&feature=related

 

[KentState]

iOS is at 43% while Android is at 47%.

iOS is catching up at a very fast rate.

How do you figure? iOS was ahead and has been passed.

 

[Bryf50]

iOS is at 43% while Android is at 47%.

iOS is catching up at a very fast rate.

This is a graph of smartphone sales not marketshare. Obviously apples sales are up in the month it released a new phone.

 

[dwell]

Apple is not trying to win the marketshare metric. To gain substantial marketshare Apple would have to sacrifice their principles and release cheap, poorly constructed devices, allow the carriers to "molest" the UX with bloatware and differentiation (skins), and make lots of other concessions they are not willing to make.

Apple's at ~20% global marketshare but controls over 50% of the revenue from smartphones. That's not a bad postion to be in and they show no signs of slowing down.

People believe that whoever has the most marketshare will "win" but that's a poorly constructed argument based on what happened in the PC market almost 20 years ago. There was never a time that Microsoft had to compete against multiple players, each controlling large portions of the market. There are more flaws in the analogy, but that's one people don't want to admit.

 

[ponyo]

I honestly think google didn't see that coming, they probably never thought that somebody might create an entire separate app market; but amazon just took their OS and ran with it, completely bypassing google's ecosystem, reaping all the benefits of the free OS, while not generating any revenue streams for google, and further fragmenting the OS.

google's probably pissing themselves and desperately trying to clamp down on this in the future.

Yeah, Google tried to clamp down on this by releasing the ICS source code.

 

[SparkyJJO]

iOS is at 43% while Android is at 47%.

iOS is catching up at a very fast rate.

Seems to me that 1) iOS existed before Android and 2) if Android is at 47% that means they already passed iOS.

You were saying again?

 

[Puddle Jumper]

I think forking ICS by manufacturers will become pretty common, especially if the Amazon app store continues to do well.

The Amazon App Store is pretty awful though, I've bought plenty of apps from Android Market but would never consider buying one from Amazon I could get elsewhere. The only reason I have the Amazon app store on my devices is for the free apps of the day.

 

[Pliablemoose]

The Amazon App Store is pretty awful though, I've bought plenty of apps from Android Market but would never consider buying one from Amazon I could get elsewhere. The only reason I have the Amazon app store on my devices is for the free apps of the day.

Amazon "cultivates" it's app store, it's safer.

 

[QueBert]

This is a graph of smartphone sales not marketshare. Obviously apples sales are up in the month it released a new phone.

Ok so Apple's jump was from their new handset, but why was Android down so much? Android has a bunch of new handsets released in q3 2011. By your logic Google should have jumped from 60% to 70% or higher right? It takes dozens of phones constantly being released for Android to stay competitive with a company that release *1* phone a year. And apparently when that *1* phone comes out, they can't stay competitive, even with all the new Android phones that came out during that same period.

 

[MaxFusion16]

Yeah, Google tried to clamp down on this by releasing the ICS source code.

true, but I still think it's in their best interest to unify the android platform, too many flavors as is, don't need even more appstores.

google just released an app design guideline, and is rumored to release a nexus tablet to compete directly with the kindle fire, so it's still up in the air, google may just decide to close android with 5.0, just like they did with honeycomb.

 

[Mopetar]

Apple is not trying to win the marketshare metric. To gain substantial marketshare Apple would have to sacrifice their principles and release cheap, poorly constructed devices, . . . and make lots of other concessions they are not willing to make.

Before I would have agreed with this, but Apple may be shifting their strategies to go after more market share. For the first time, they now have phones priced at $200, $100, and $0 with contracts. Rather than making a new, lower-priced version of the iPhone they're just selling the older one at reduced cost as the manufacturing cost of the device also decreases.

When the next iPhone comes out, the 3GS gets retired and the iPhone 4 becomes the free with contract option. This allows Apple to target new segments of the market that they were previously unable to tap into. If they want to take it a step further they could release the phone on TMobile as well to gain access to even more potential customers.

Apple obviously doesn't need to win in terms of market share to be profitable or "win" in some other definition of the word, but that doesn't mean that they wouldn't mind picking up more of the market if it doesn't require them to compromise their goals, values, or strategy and nets them even more money while doing it.

 

[Bryf50]

Ok so Apple's jump was from their new handset, but why was Android down so much? Android has a bunch of new handsets released in q3 2011. By your logic Google should have jumped from 60% to 70% or higher right? It takes dozens of phones constantly being released for Android to stay competitive with a company that release *1* phone a year. And apparently when that *1* phone comes out, they can't stay competitive, even with all the new Android phones that came out during that same period.

47%>43%. Seems like they "stayed competitive" to me. The release of a new iPhone is a yearly or greater event. Seems pretty obvious why it would have a bigger impact on marketshare for the month.

All together this argument has gotten really stupid. iOS is doing great and isn't being pushed out of the market by android any time in the next decade. Android is also doing great and isn't going to cease to exist any time soon. Anyone who can't admit to this is a very peculiar type of fanboy. One who would rather there be no choice and everyone must use the mobile os they prefer.